MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

Havockk

listermint wrote: »

Yes, I do. The UK will be back looking for membership within ten years.

It's ridiculous to think they can exit in the manner they did straight into recession

How long did the SDP last? That's what's so pathetic about this... it's all happened before and allowed tory hegemony. Talk about not learning from history.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The fact the Parliamentary Labour Party gave the gang of 7 a round of applause this evening should give the leadership some pause for thought - that said Tom Watson seems to get it.

Meanwhile back in the 80s (with a 19 or 18 prefix)

https://www.marxist.com/britain-bye-bye-blairites-now-show-the-rest-the-door.htm

Do you think that Corbyn, if he left, would mean the end of a strong left movement within Labour? If so, you are wrong. McDonnell would probably follow, for one ( even more chance of that with this split). Theres a reason Corbyn has the support he does, its a dissatisfaction with the status Quo.

Blairism is dead. Too many dead Iraqis and increased wealth gaps.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Perhaps, but a large majority of Labour voters want one anyway.

I agree, but that was a delicate path to travel when a quarter of your base wants something else, esp, when already in the minority.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Perhaps, but a large majority of Labour voters want one anyway.

Lets see if they move allegiance to the new party.

What is this new parties manifesto, anyway? "Corbyn is bad, m'kay"?

Havockk

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Lets see if they move allegiance to the new party.

What is this new parties manifesto, anyway? "Corbyn is bad, m'kay"?

Remember, they are not a 'party' they are a private company.

Folkstonian

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Lets see if they move allegiance to the new party.

What is this new parties manifesto, anyway? "Corbyn is bad, m'kay"?

They aren’t a party.

Tom Mann Centuria

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

42% of voters said they would vote for a new centrist party.

The current centrist party is virtually dead, I am not convinced a new one would do much better. I could be proved wrong if these 7 were to have by elections now though. They seem reluctant for some reason.

How many would you say, would be re-elected in their current constituencies? I'd guess none.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

I agree, but that was a delicate path to travel when a quarter of your base wants something else, esp, when already in the minority.

Both parties have delicate paths. The only party who can unite its members behind its Brexit policy is the Lib Dems.

BobbyBobberson

Folkstonian wrote: »

They aren’t a party.

To add to your point about that.

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1097474345381912577

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Lets see if they move allegiance to the new party.

What is this new parties manifesto, anyway? "Corbyn is bad, m'kay"?

They seem to be united in their soft Brexit stance and their belief that Corbyn's leadership is poor. I'm sure they'll develop further policies.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They seem to be united in their soft Brexit stance and their belief that Corbyn's leadership is poor. I'm sure they'll develop further policies.

They need a miracle at this stage.

Professor Moriarty

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

The current centrist party is virtually dead, I am not convinced a new one would do much better. I could be proved wrong if these 7 were to have by elections now though. They seem reluctant for some reason.

How many would you say, would be re-elected in their current constituencies? I'd guess none.

I don't know. A lot would depend on majorities, pro/anti Brexit constituencies, etc.

Tom Mann Centuria

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't know. A lot would depend on majorities, pro/anti Brexit constituencies, etc.

2 of the 7 are in leave constituencies and virtually all the others safe seats, or ones that splintering the vote allow someone other than them (or Labour) in.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't know. A lot would depend on majorities, pro/anti Brexit constituencies, etc.

You think they can sell a project like Blairs neoliberal 'lite' to the electorate that voted for Brexit?

I take it back... they'll need more than a miracle.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

They need a miracle at this stage.

I think they may well end up in the Lib Dems if they don't rejoin. They're too small and in a FPTP system the two big beasts would destroy them at election time.

Franz Von Peppercorn

listermint wrote: »

Yes, I do. The UK will be back looking for membership within ten years.

Not what I asked though. I said did you see a new party "crushing" the existing parties.

Havockk

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

2 of the 7 are in leave constituencies and virtually all the others safe seats, or ones that splintering the vote allow someone other than them (or Labour) in.

It would be interesting if the Tories, sensing a larger parliamentary majority and labour weakness calls a GE before Brexit day.

listermint

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

2 of the 7 are in leave constituencies and virtually all the others safe seats, or ones that splintering the vote allow someone other than them (or Labour) in.

Can you give some recent polls on these leave constituencies. Links please

listermint

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Not what I asked though. I said did you see a new party "crushing" the existing parties.

That's not what you said. So I don't know why you are now quoting words you never used.

Is this a serious response.

Havockk

listermint wrote: »

That's not what you said. So I don't know why you are now quoting words you never used.

Is this a serious response.

Well, if they don't think they can get either into government, or a position of influence, what do they hope to achieve?

Tom Mann Centuria

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think they may well end up in the Lib Dems if they don't rejoin. They're too small and in a FPTP system the two big beasts would destroy them at election time.

I liked the Lib Dems, my dad was a Lib Dem his whole life until the coalition, stood for local government for decades for them, but they've had abysmal leadership and their soul is gone since they helped Cameron start his sh*t show.

They talk about Corbyn mishandling things for his party, yet the most vociferous pro EU (and federalist) party makes no impact at all in polling, on the one subject it holds a supposed clear policy advantage on.

I think the ego's of at least a couple of the 7 wouldn't allow them to join the lib dems.

Professor Moriarty

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

I liked the Lib Dems, my dad was a Lib Dem his whole life until the coalition, stood for local government for decades for them, but they've had abysmal leadership and their soul is gone since they helped Cameron start his sh*t show.

They talk about Corbyn mishandling things for his party, yet the most vociferous pro EU (and federalist) party makes no impact at all in polling, on the one subject it holds a supposed clear policy advantage on.

I think the ego's of at least a couple of the 7 wouldn't allow them to join the lib dems.

Yeah, I can't fathom it. There are dozens of centrist MPs who are very pro remain and yet they stay in parties that are not Remain. I suppose the fact remains that the FPTP system promotes binary politics and so these MPs cling to their party.

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

72% of Labour voters back a second referendum.

Can any party afford to lose 28% of it's votes?

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Can any party afford to lose 28% of it's votes?

Can it afford to ignore the wishes of a large majority of its voters? Cracks are appearing in both parties but it's beginning to look like party unity (such as it is) is a little bit stronger in the Tory party. Sadly.

Tom Mann Centuria

listermint wrote: »

Can you give some recent polls on these leave constituencies. Links please

You want links for recent polls Google them yourself.

But since you said please, here's the results In the referendum.

60.7% voted leave in Penistone and Stocksbridge

54.6%. voted leave in Luton South

So, leave constituencies.


Smith has zero chance of being reelected. Tories will take that seat.

Franz Von Peppercorn

listermint wrote: »

That's not what you said. So I don't know why you are now quoting words you never used.

Is this a serious response.

Heres what I said:

"So you are saying a new remain party ( or rejoin the EU party) is going to arise from the ashes and defeat these old parties?

Can't see it."

Then we got here with you denying I said that. I've rarely posted in politics but in the two times I do I get into rows with you about who posted what. Thats too tiresome to bother with so I am sending you to ignore. First poster ever.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Can it afford to ignore the wishes of a large majority of its voters? Cracks are appearing in both parties but it's beginning to look like party unity (such as it is) is a little bit stronger in the Tory party. Sadly.

Unfortunately all today has succeeded in doing, other than of course open up a lively debate (which is as ever enjoyable) is to take the heat off May for another week or two wound off the clock. It's a regressive step for anyone who is pro-remain or hope for the best post-brexit.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Can it afford to ignore the wishes of a large majority of its voters? Cracks are appearing in both parties but it's beginning to look like party unity (such as it is) is a little bit stronger in the Tory party. Sadly.

The tory vote has held solid, if anything there has been a small seepage to UKIP, when May's deal was announced for instance. Theres no obvious remainers leaving, if there were it would see the libs rise as the Tory's fall.

Labour remainers have largely held solid as well, but in recent polls it looks ike a few percentages have moved to the libs. Some of that may now go to the new party.

What this means is that for all the anger on the comments section of newspapers, remainers are not moving. Its not surprising then that parties in parliament are not backing a second ref.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

Unfortunately all today has succeeded in doing, other than of course open up a lively debate (which is as ever enjoyable) is to take the heat off May for another week or two wound off the clock. It's a regressive step for anyone who is pro-remain or hope for the best post-brexit.

It's a break from the herd. I can see dozens more joining them if both parties maintain their current positions over the next seven weeks.

Tom Mann Centuria

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's a break from the herd. I can see dozens more joining them if both parties maintain their current positions over the next seven weeks.

It'd actually help Labour if a few tories jumped ship and joined the independent registered company not a party, party.

Soubry and Grieve are too concerned with holding their seat though.