MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

Harry Palmr

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it noteworthy that the defectors are all women?

I think the ERG is something women tend to react against! That group is overwhelmingly men

prawnsambo

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Deselection can only apply at the end of a term though and people have also been calling that Orwellian, when it really isn't.

I don't agree that a party should be able to "own" a seat, but public discontent at somebody changing sides is understandable.

In Ireland, Stephen Donnelly is a good case in point. I don't believe he should have been forced to resign his seat and seek re-election in a by-election however, no more than I did when he and Roisin Shortall and Catherine Murphy formed the Social Democrats.

I wouldn't entirely disagree with you. But it's often the case that these defections happen because it's with the mood of the constituency rather than against it. Many of these defectors (if not all - I haven't looked them up) are representing remain constituencies. You also have the likes of Kate Hoey, who's more often photographed with UKIPpers and Unionists representing a strong remain constituency. And there's nothing those constituents can do about it.

Harry Palmr

PMQ's at high noon, will any of the Independents be asking a question?

Akrasia

There's a Conservative MP on LBC now talking about how he was very close to joining the 3 Tory defectors and how he has spoken to cabinet ministers who have expressed to him that they are extremely unhappy with the way TM is handling brexit. There are Tory MPs who are still pushing for a 2nd referendum but TM refuses to even meet them

I get the impression that the next day or two could see a lot of additional defections depending on how TM reacts to this (and so far her reaction has been very underwhelming)

Franz Von Peppercorn

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. And this is what I think is part of the disingenuous narrative around Israel and anti-semitism. Supporting the rights of Palestine and the Palestinian people and directly or indirectly condemning Israeli government policy is fine. But then the water gets muddied by people calling on Jewish people in the UK or the HoC to condemn Israel crosses that line. Because it's a bit like saying that Muslims who have lived all their lives in Ireland or the UK, should somehow be required to condemn Isamic fundamentalism, because y'know, they're the same thing until proven otherwise.

Do people say that? I've seen a fair amount of criticism of Corbyn and others conflating criticism of Israel with anti-semitism. In fact Ryan's resignation speech mentioned Israel.

as in

"And I cannot remain a member of the Labour party while this requires me to suggest that I believe Jeremy Corbyn – a man who has presided over the culture of anti-Jewish racism and hatred for Israel which now afflicts my former party – is fit to be Prime Minister of this country. He is not."

prawnsambo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Do people say that? I've seen a fair amount of criticism of Corbyn and others conflating criticism of Israel with anti-semitism. In fact Ryan's resignation speech mentioned Israel.

as in

"And I cannot remain a member of the Labour party while this requires me to suggest that I believe Jeremy Corbyn – a man who has presided over the culture of anti-Jewish racism and hatred for Israel which now afflicts my former party – is fit to be Prime Minister of this country. He is not."

Well you saw the tweets and retweets from Labour Youth. Pretty much the exact issue. Conflating somebody's Jewishness with hatred of Palestine or support for Israeli government policy.

Water John

I think 2 of the 7 LB who went first are from Brexit Constituencies, for a better term.

Franz Von Peppercorn

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well you saw the tweets and retweets from Labour Youth. Pretty much the exact issue. Conflating somebody's Jewishness with hatred of Palestine or support for Israeli government policy.

But the argument began the other way. Corbyn was criticised as anti Semitic because he criticised Israel. As in being pro hamas. Joking about Zionism etc.

Tom Mann Centuria

Good news for Labour that some Tories have joined the party that isn't a party. In my opinion only of course! Heidi Allen has a reasonable chance of holding her current seat I think, strong Remain constituency and even though her voting record doesn't back it up, shes seen as a compassionate Tory (a strange idea).

A Dub in Glasgo

Not sure what way this will go and their intention, they will need more Labour MPs to prop up May against the DUP / ERG or they will need more Tory MPs to vote with Labour against the Tories. this is just a voting bloc rather than a new political party?



Profiles: three MPs leave Conservative Party (from thetimes.co.uk)

Anna Soubry, 62, Broxtowe since 2010
Ms Soubry was a rising star under David Cameron with a seat at the cabinet table as a business minister. But she refused a more junior post from Theresa May before becoming one of the most outspoken opponents of the Brexit process. In doing that Ms Soubry, has formed a strong working relationship with Chuka Umunna, the ex-Labour MP who was one of the initial breakaway seven.

Heidi Allen, 44, South Cambridgeshire since 2015
Ms Allen has never lacked political courage: her maiden speech in the Commons was an attack on the chancellor George Osborne’s reforms to tax credits, creating a massive row.

She was praised when she became the first MP to talk openly in the Commons about her abortion in a move that campaigners said helped to pull down one of society’s biggest taboos. She later described Mr Osborne as “too smooth” and said that when she pictured Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, she saw “him in a room with Putin, naked from the waist upwards and together wrestling fish”.

She grew up in West Yorkshire; her mother who moved to Britain from Germany after the war and her father was born in Manchester. She is one of the few politicians who can say that they studied astrophysics at university and has been criticial of the government’s handling of Brexit.

Sarah Wollaston, 57, Totnes since 2010
The chairwoman of the Commons health select committee has already made political history. She was the first UK politician to win her party’s nomination as an MP under an American- style open primary system. She was reportedly facing a deselection vote from her local association and has been highly critical of her party’s attitude to Brexit.

Franz Von Peppercorn

So let’s see if any Tory voters defect in the polls. I expect not.

I’m no Tory but I like Heidi Allen. Also they are fairly brave. The Labour defectors look like they were going to be deselected anyway. These guys seem safe, Tory remainers dont organise.

So this is a remain party? The Labour defectors were too busy attacking Corbyn to say.

An Ciarraioch

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

So let’s see if any Tory voters defect in the polls. I expect not.

Seems to be mostly Labour and Lib Dems so far, with about 2% of the total coming from Tories:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098193444034564096

An Ciarraioch

Update - 3% from both Tories and Lib Dems, 7% Labour, 1% presumably Other:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098196101042196482

Franz Von Peppercorn

With those kind of figures the tories could romp home in the next GE. I don’t think the IG will take a labour seat but they could split the vote to allow tories win in any constituency.

May has effectively been saved.

An Ciarraioch

The first poll gives a virtual repeat of 1983:

Con 363
Lab 164
SNP 43
IG 41
NI 18
Lib Dem 16
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1

Tom Mann Centuria

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

With those kind of figures the tories could romp home in the next GE. I don’t think the IG will take a labour seat but they could split the vote to allow tories win in any constituency.

May has effectively been saved.

Mission accomplished for Chuka et al. If that's the case.

marno21

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Update - 3% from both Tories and Lib Dems, 7% Labour, 1% presumably Other:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098196101042196482

Wow. Tories with an 8% lead even with their current level of incompetence. Corbyn providing the firm opposition equivalent to playing snooker with a rope

Franz Von Peppercorn

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The first poll gives a virtual repeat of 1983:

Con 363
Lab 164
SNP 43
IG 41
NI 18
Lib Dem 16
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1

I really doubt the IG will get any of those seats. They need recognisable candidates. But the vote will be split.

Water John

It will take a while for this new entity to settle into a place in UK politics.
Moderate conservatism was the main ideology within the Tories until Thatcher became leader. Had a focus on social justice but also on where to source the money for such a policy.

An Ciarraioch

Normal poll:

Con 341
Lab 228
SNP 41
Lib Dem 18
NI 18
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1

quokula

Given that they only have one policy (second referendum), which is shared with the Lib Dems who were nowhere last election, and which will already be too late to change by the time an election would come around, why would anyone vote for them? Their MPs are diametrically opposed to eachother on other issues. And the Labour defectors won't hold up very well to election scrutiny, given many of them are simply jumping before they were pushed.

Hurrache

This tweet was posted earlier.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1098134231463661568

Ahem
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11763688769?s=19

Harry Palmr

If the Indies won't join the Lib Dems will the Lib Dems join the "Independent Party" I wonder.

Franz Von Peppercorn

quokula wrote: »

Given that they only have one policy (second referendum), which is shared with the Lib Dems who were nowhere last election, and which will already be too late to change by the time an election would come around, why would anyone vote for them? Their MPs are diametrically opposed to eachother on other issues. And the Labour defectors won't hold up very well to election scrutiny, given many of them are simply jumping before they were pushed.

It’s just locked in Tory hegemony.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

quokula wrote: »

Given that they only have one policy (second referendum), which is shared with the Lib Dems who were nowhere last election, and which will already be too late to change by the time an election would come around, why would anyone vote for them? Their MPs are diametrically opposed to eachother on other issues. And the Labour defectors won't hold up very well to election scrutiny, given many of them are simply jumping before they were pushed.

Well those that left Conservative did so because it was moving too far right and those that left Labour did so because they were moving too far left, so clearly they will appeal to both Tory and Labour voters who agree with this sentiment.

Tom Mann Centuria

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Well those that left Conservative did so because it was moving too far right and those that left Labour did so because they were moving too far left, so clearly they will appeal to both Tory and Labour voters who agree with this sentiment.

Well the Lib Dems clearly didn't, and they have actual policies.

Water John

In saying clearly, they want a 2nd Ref, they have already more policies than both the Conservatives and Labour.

quokula

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

Well the Lib Dems clearly didn't, and they have actual policies.

This - the Lib Dems already exist, have actual policies, and have candidates who believe in those policies and always have.

This group is a bunch of people united by their hatred of their previous party leaders (for varying reasons, but for most it was because they were facing deselection), with nothing coherent binding them other than that.

Tom Mann Centuria

Water John wrote: »

In saying clearly, they want a 2nd Ref, they have already more policies than both the Conservatives and Labour.

No, because one policy is less than several policies, by lots and lots.

Water John

There are lots of policies but no clarity in those policies, mainly dogmatic waffle.
All, 11 are mainly unhappy with the direction of their previous party's, as both have gone extreme.
Neither do this new group, have to join the Lib Dems. They could have a close working alliance with them, for example, also with other parties, like the Greens so that they do not damage each other in constituencies and let Con or Lb win the seat.