MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

Franz Von Peppercorn

prawnsambo wrote: »

They probably will. But Vince Cable is about as charismatic as a wet paper bag, so he'd have to go. In fact, it could possibly be better for the Lib Dems to be absorbed into them rather than the other way around.

Why would a party that has a history going back hundreds of years join this motley crew. They don’t have a coherent manifesto. Anti Corbyn isn’t a policy. The conservatives in there are right wingers, not centrists.

Leroy42

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

The new company are, as George Monbiot has accurately described them, Conservatism minus Brexit. That's the brave new dawn we should enthuse about is it?

So just maintain the status quo is that it? Unless it is perfect then no point in doing anything? It, if it works, signals a turn away from the extreme form of conversativism as preaching by the likes of JRM and the ERG. They are leaving not simply because of Brexit, but because they see the lurch to the right that the Tories are undertaking. As Allen said, they never thought the Tories would have a minister that said "F**K Business".

Whether this ever amounts to anything (and if people think the bias against Corbyn is big, at least he is a leader of a main party!) then it will signal a shift in UK polictics.

Take the LibDems for eg. If people had no turned there back on them over something as relatively minor (in terms of the damage Brexit could do) then in all likelohood Brexit wouldn't be happening. So they feel lied to over tuition fees and for that they are giving up FoM, probably getting a recession to boot!

Franz Von Peppercorn

Leroy42 wrote: »

So just maintain the status quo is that it? Unless it is perfect then no point in doing anything? It, if it works, signals a turn away from the extreme form of conversativism as preaching by the likes of JRM and the ERG. They are leaving not simply because of Brexit, but because they see the lurch to the right that the Tories are undertaking. As Allen said, they never thought the Tories would have a minister that said "F**K Business".

Whether this ever amounts to anything (and if people think the bias against Corbyn is big, at least he is a leader of a main party!) then it will signal a shift in UK polictics.

Take the LibDems for eg. If people had no turned there back on them over something as relatively minor (in terms of the damage Brexit could do) then in all likelohood Brexit wouldn't be happening. So they feel lied to over tuition fees and for that they are giving up FoM, probably getting a recession to boot!

This new party guarantees Brexit.

The political analysis on this thread is weak. Firstly I don’t think one of the Labour defectors will keep their seats. They are hated by the party. They will take votes from labour though.

If May extends A50 for a few months, calls an election, she will have the votes to bring in her Brexit. The tories will be campaigning as a Brexit party.

Leroy42

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Why would a party that has a history going back hundreds of years join this motley crew. They don’t have a coherent manifesto. Anti Corbyn isn’t a policy. The conservatives are right wingers.

What cohernet manifesto do either of the main parties have?

Anti EU as been a perfectly valid policy for both UKIP and the ERG so your point doesn't stand up.

They are seen as right wingers in the traditional sense of left/right politics. But politics continually change. FG would be considered right wing yet have been the party of government when both Gay marriage and abortion were voted for. So it depends on how far right they are and whether there is any common ground with those with a more left leaning.

prawnsambo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Why would a party that has a history going back hundreds of years join this motley crew. They don’t have a coherent manifesto. Anti Corbyn isn’t a policy. The conservatives in there are right wingers, not centrists.

As others have pointed out, the Lib Dems have (unfairly imo) become a toxic party for being a junior coalition partner essentially. It's just one possibility to leave that behind them. I'm completely ambivalent on the subject. Political parties come and go, tradition in that respect is overrated. The UK desperately needs to change the system. It's completely broken at this stage. And let's not forget that we are where we are with brexit because one party pandered to a right wing element in its ranks in order to 'save' itself. And is continuing to negotiate with itself at the expense of pretty much every person in the country.

Leroy42

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

This new party guarantees Brexit.

The political analysis on this thread is weak. Firstly I don’t think one of the Labour defectors will keep their seats. They are hated by the party. They will take votes from labour though.

If May extends A50 for a few months, calls an election, she will have the votes to bring in her Brexit. The tories will be campaigning as a Brexit party.

Ah, so you think that some other solution would stop Brexit? Staying in their parties hasn't exactly helped up till now. Labour, under Corbyn has no intention of stopping Brexit, they will campaigning for Brexit as well.

These 11 have all been against Brexit. But, for example, if Labour calls another confidence vote then at least those 3 ex Tories could help swing the vote. How does sitting there voting with the Tories help anything?

Franz Von Peppercorn

Leroy42 wrote: »

What cohernet manifesto do either of the main parties have?

They literally have pages of the stuff.

Anti EU as been a perfectly valid policy for both UKIP and the ERG so your point doesn't stand up.

The ERG isn’t a party. UKIP get 6% of the vote despite anti EU sentiment being 50% or so. That’s what happens to single issue parties.

They are seen as right wingers in the traditional sense of left/right politics. But politics continually change. FG would be considered right wing yet have been the party of government when both Gay marriage and abortion were voted for. So it depends on how far right they are and whether there is any common ground with those with a more left leaning.

I’m talking economics and foreign policy here. The social liberal stuff is fairly universal these days. A manifesto has to have an opinion on minimum wage, school fees, taxes, attitudes to unions, business and the army, foreign policy etc.

ilkhanid

Leroy42 wrote: »

It, if it works, signals a turn away from the extreme form of conversativism as preaching by the likes of JRM and the ERG. They are leaving not simply because of Brexit, but because they see the lurch to the right that the Tories are undertaking. As Allen said, they never thought the Tories would have a minister that said "F**K Business".

It would be more accurate to say that they remained conservative while the rest of the party launched forth into radical lunacy. You're arguably hardly conservative-usually regarded as being pro-big business (indeed to an extreme dangerous degree)- if you say things like "f**k business".

Roger_007

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

This new party guarantees Brexit.

The political analysis on this thread is weak. Firstly I don’t think one of the Labour defectors will keep their seats. They are hated by the party. They will take votes from labour though.

If May extends A50 for a few months, calls an election, she will have the votes to bring in her Brexit. The tories will be campaigning as a Brexit party.

The Labour defectors were not going to keep their Labour seats anyway. Anyone who's anti Corbyn will be deselected for the next GE. The party at local level has been taken over by the loony left and will select loony left candidates. That's why there will no Labour government for the foreseeable future. The lessons of the Michael Foot era have been forgotten.

Tom Mann Centuria

Leroy42 wrote: »

Ah, so you think that some other solution would stop Brexit? Staying in their parties hasn't exactly helped up till now. Labour, under Corbyn has no intention of stopping Brexit, they will campaigning for Brexit as well.

These 11 have all been against Brexit. But, for example, if Labour calls another confidence vote then at least those 3 ex Tories could help swing the vote. How does sitting there voting with the Tories help anything?

It's already been stated the group would probably not back another confidence vote.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Leroy42 wrote: »

Ah, so you think that some other solution would stop Brexit? Staying in their parties hasn't exactly helped up till now. Labour, under Corbyn has no intention of stopping Brexit, they will campaigning for Brexit as well.

The straw man argument of telling people what they think. I don’t think that Brexit was easy to stop in the old system. Now it is copper fastened.

These 11 have all been against Brexit. But, for example, if Labour calls another confidence vote then at least those 3 ex Tories could help swing the vote. How does sitting there voting with the Tories help anything?

Labour doesn’t vote with the tories on Brexit. There’s not much party discipline on Brexit.

And what’s on offer isn’t brexit or not but May’s deal or not. The defectors would presumably vote with the ERG on her deal because they oppose Brexit and the ERG opposes a “soft” Brexit.

What I’m really talking about though is the subsequent election. The cons are a shoo in.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Roger_007 wrote: »

The Labour defectors were not going to keep their Labour seats anyway. Anyone who's anti Corbyn will be deselected for the next GE. The party at local level has been taken over by the loony left and will select loony left candidates. That's why there will no Labour government for the foreseeable future. The lessons of the Michael Foot era have been forgotten.

There’s no indication at all that Corbyn couldn’t win. He out performed the polls last time. He can’t now of course.

Roger_007

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

There’s no indication at all that Corbyn couldn’t win. He out performed the polls last time. He can’t now of course.

Corbyn's ineptitude wasn't as clear then as it is now. Brexit has exposed him for what he is, a protest politician who cannot deal with issues when leadership is required. His performances at the dispatch box have been pathetic, and that's being kind to him.

Leroy42

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

They literally have pages of the stuff.

You said coherent. I didn't claim they had no policies. Do you think either the Tories of Labour have a coherent plan on Brexit?

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

The ERG isn’t a party. UKIP get 6% of the vote despite anti EU sentiment being 50% or so. That’s what happens to single issue parties.

The ERG have a leader, vice leader, they have a policy different that the Tories. and they label themselves as the ERG. They are a party in every sense expect they have not the guts to actually leave the Tory party, perferring instead to change from within.

There are a myriad of reasons why UKIP got 6%. The fundamentals of FPTT system, meaning that in many cases a vote for UKIP is a wasted vote. Their organisation. The lack of policies outside of Anti-EU. The standard of candidates.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Roger_007 wrote: »

Corbyn's ineptitude wasn't as clear then as it is now. Brexit has exposed him for what he is, a protest politician who cannot deal with issues when leadership is required. His performances at the dispatch box have been pathetic, and that's being kind to him.

I think he’s been fine at the dispatch in fact. The problem you have with him is that he didn’t outright oppose Brexit. Given the political reality of much of his vote being pro Brexit, he couldn’t.

The job of the Labour Party isn’t to pander to its richest supporters.

That said I think they could and should campaign on a renegotiation and second referendum to take the sails out of the defectors.

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

I think he’s been fine at the dispatch in fact. The problem you have with him is that he didn’t outright oppose Brexit. Given the political reality of much of his vote being pro Brexit, he couldn’t.

The job of the Labour Party isn’t to pander to its richest supporters.

That said I think they could and should campaign on a renegotiation and second referendum to take the sails out of the defectors.

You'll need to change leader for that campaign to happen. Corbyn is vehemently opposed to a second referendum.

Berserker

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

That said I think they could and should campaign on a renegotiation and second referendum to take the sails out of the defectors.

That's going to upset his base vote though.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You'll need to change leader for that campaign to happen. Corbyn is vehemently opposed to a second referendum.

And has been completely against taking an actual position on Brexit. He disappeared during the campaign and has been dragged into a position on the CU by his Labour party.

May has regularly been able to side step any question at PMQ's on Brexit from Corbyn by simply stating that Corbyn has no plan, no idea, no policy. And Corbyn is left looking sheepish.

Even Labour will admit that their policy is to remain vague, not to pick a position to avoid getting boxed in. They can be anything to anybody. So many think Labour will support a 2nd Ref, a softer Brexit, a cancellation of Brexit, a CU/SM. But actually Corbyn has made little little assurances on any of this, expect that he would negotiate better.

Even the earlier point that Corbyn was doing 'fine' at the dispatch box. He is up against one of the worst PM's in history. See cannot command her own party. She cannot make decisions. She constantly goes back on what she promised. She has no charisma. And yet the best Corbyn can do is 'fine'?

That there is a pretty damning indictment of Corbyn

Franz Von Peppercorn

Leroy42 wrote: »

You said coherent. I didn't claim they had no policies. Do you think either the Tories of Labour have a coherent plan on Brexit?

You guys suffer from Brexit derangement syndrome. The other parties do have a manifesto on brexit, and on other issues, I gave a list of other policy areas. Just because you don’t like the manifestos doesn’t mean they aren’t there. The independent group has nothing.

The ERG have a leader, vice leader, they have a policy different that the Tories. and they label themselves as the ERG. They are a party in every sense expect they have not the guts to actually leave the Tory party, perferring instead to change from within.

In no sense are they a political party. And changing from within is something the motley crew refused to do.

There are a myriad of reasons why UKIP got 6%. The fundamentals of FPTT system, meaning that in many cases a vote for UKIP is a wasted vote. Their organisation. The lack of policies outside of Anti-EU. The standard of candidates.

Lol at the lack of policies outside anti-EU. That’s right. As is the point about FPTT. And exactly why the IG will get few to no seats.

A manifesto isn’t just one line about being pro EU. This party has to spell out its policy on tax, on the environment, on minimum wage, on austerity or not, on university fees, on any number of issues where there is a chasm between the tories and the labour movement.

Not that’s it’s a party yet. Chukka said it doesn’t intend to form a party until late in the year. Unfortunately there will be at least one election before then unless Brexit happens. And probably two.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

And has been completely against taking an actual position on Brexit. He disappeared during the campaign and has been dragged into a position on the CU by his Labour party.

May has regularly been able to side step any question at PMQ's on Brexit from Corbyn by simply stating that Corbyn has no plan, no idea, no policy. And Corbyn is left looking sheepish.

Even Labour will admit that their policy is to remain vague, not to pick a position to avoid getting boxed in. They can be anything to anybody. So many think Labour will support a 2nd Ref, a softer Brexit, a cancellation of Brexit, a CU/SM. But actually Corbyn has made little little assurances on any of this, expect that he would negotiate better.

Even the earlier point that Corbyn was doing 'fine' at the dispatch box. He is up against one of the worst PM's in history. See cannot command her own party. She cannot make decisions. She constantly goes back on what she promised. She has no charisma. And yet the best Corbyn can do is 'fine'?

That there is a pretty damning indictment of Corbyn

I don't think he's fine. Theresa May outperforms him every time. And a Blair or Cameron would have dismantled May.

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

And has been completely against taking an actual position on Brexit.

Seems to be party wide, this is hilariously awful.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1098250673035071490

Roger_007

Berserker wrote: »

That's going to upset his base vote though.

His base vote might become nervous if they see their jobs beginning to slip away.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Leroy42 wrote: »

And has been completely against taking an actual position on Brexit. He disappeared during the campaign and has been dragged into a position on the CU by his Labour party.

May has regularly been able to side step any question at PMQ's on Brexit from Corbyn by simply stating that Corbyn has no plan, no idea, no policy. And Corbyn is left looking sheepish.

Even Labour will admit that their policy is to remain vague, not to pick a position to avoid getting boxed in. They can be anything to anybody. So many think Labour will support a 2nd Ref, a softer Brexit, a cancellation of Brexit, a CU/SM. But actually Corbyn has made little little assurances on any of this, expect that he would negotiate better.

Even the earlier point that Corbyn was doing 'fine' at the dispatch box. He is up against one of the worst PM's in history. See cannot command her own party. She cannot make decisions. She constantly goes back on what she promised. She has no charisma. And yet the best Corbyn can do is 'fine'?

That there is a pretty damning indictment of Corbyn

...and the CU/SM "plan" that he keeps shouting about makes zero sense in the context of Brexit due to the requirement to accept the rules that come along with CU/SM membership - it'd make the UK a net rule taker. They'd be better off in the EU.

prawnsambo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

What I’m really talking about though is the subsequent election. The cons are a shoo in.

That really depends on how brexit pans out. A hard brexit could absolutely decimate the Tories. I'm sure that's what Corbyn is banking on. Hence the fence sitting.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Leroy42 wrote: »

And has been completely against taking an actual position on Brexit. He disappeared during the campaign and has been dragged into a position on the CU by his Labour party.

May has regularly been able to side step any question at PMQ's on Brexit from Corbyn by simply stating that Corbyn has no plan, no idea, no policy. And Corbyn is left looking sheepish.

Even Labour will admit that their policy is to remain vague, not to pick a position to avoid getting boxed in. They can be anything to anybody. So many think Labour will support a 2nd Ref, a softer Brexit, a cancellation of Brexit, a CU/SM. But actually Corbyn has made little little assurances on any of this, expect that he would negotiate better.

Even the earlier point that Corbyn was doing 'fine' at the dispatch box. He is up against one of the worst PM's in history. See cannot command her own party. She cannot make decisions. She constantly goes back on what she promised. She has no charisma. And yet the best Corbyn can do is 'fine'?

That there is a pretty damning indictment of Corbyn

Only if you have BDS. Both parties have members who are pro and anti EU so neither party are definitive on Brexit. On the other hand the referendum was sold as binding (even if legally it wasn’t). In the event then of that referendum passing there wasn’t really an option to oppose Brexit.

Only after an exit deal is agreed can opposition be made. I do think that labour should now shift to a second referendum position, though.

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

That really depends on how brexit pans out. A hard brexit could absolutely decimate the Tories. I'm sure that's what Corbyn is banking on. Hence the fence sitting.

The problem is to many in the middle that could be considered the swing voters corbyn is still completely unpalatable as a PM.


Like many have pointed out the fact he is still down in polls vs May after the horrendous last 3 years speaks volumes on his inability to appeal to the electorate. Even the desperation a bad brexit might cause may not be enough to get him a win.

MrMusician18

Roger_007 wrote: »

Corbyn's ineptitude wasn't as clear then as it is now. Brexit has exposed him for what he is, a protest politician who cannot deal with issues when leadership is required. His performances at the dispatch box have been pathetic, and that's being kind to him.

What? Corbyns ineptitude has been well known and was known well before the last election. It's why there was av snap election ffs! The Tories thought they would be able beat him out the gate. The truth is, when he got a fair shake, people liked what they heard.

There's a fair bit of revisionism going on here.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Seems to be party wide, this is hilariously awful.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1098250673035071490

seems like he's waiting for a script to regurgiutate

short on individual thought

Cryptopagan

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

...and the CU/SM "plan" that he keeps shouting about makes zero sense in the context of Brexit due to the requirement to accept the rules that come along with CU/SM membership - it'd make the UK a net rule taker. They'd be better off in the EU.

No version of Brexit is better than being in the EU though; being a “rule taker” in SM/CU makes more sense than what May proposes. A UK outside Europe will end up having to “take” a lot more if it expects to negotiate an FTA with the US on its own.

To me, a Norway style compromise that leaves everyone bitter and disappointed seems like a fitting conclusion for Brexit.

prawnsambo

Anna Soubry is running James O'Brien's slot on LBC this morning. This was arranged before he went on holiday, so it's a bit of a scoop for LBC.