MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

Franz Von Peppercorn

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Your version of centrism might not be applicable over the water.

ireland isn’t England though. We already have high welfarism and do not have the kind of poverty people see in the UK. Wages have grown until now with globalisation.

However your right wing “pro worker” sentiments are also part of the new paradigm, one where wages stagnate and you are lashing out at the bottom 10% rather than the top 10%.

You missed the bit about supposedly bankrupt property developers driving around in Range Rovers then?

I know why I am taxed so heavily and those bastards are a big part.

murphaph

Aegir wrote: »

****ing hell, that takes me back to my college days. One of my mates had an All Aggro, it was awful.

In Germany the company is known by motoring enthusiasts as Britisch Elend (in German that rhymes properly), meaning British misery.

Harry Palmr

If there is a lurch by one party to a "hardline" position, the other main party in oppositon will win by not reacting to it's own extremes, in normal times anyway. It looks like neither of the big parties has the gumption to go after what used to be termed Mondeo Man right now.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Definitely over time a left movement is inevitable. Of course given the huge control of the right wing press it’s difficult.

I'm often reminded of the Alf Garnett sketch, where an Indian immigrant canvassing for votes knocks on his door.

Piss off, says Alf, I hate Labour.

No Mr Garnett, I am the conservative candidate.

You were bloody labour last time

Yes, but that was when i first came here. I have my own business now, so I an a conservative.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Aegir wrote: »

You missed the bit about supposedly bankrupt property developers driving around in Range Rovers then?

I know why I am taxed so heavily and those bastards are a big part.

I did, fair play.

Believe it or not I think Ireland's tax is too high and at too low an income.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Harry Palmr wrote: »

If there is a lurch by one party to a "hardline" position, the other main party in oppositon will win by not reacting to it's own extremes, in normal times anyway. It looks like neither of the big parties has the gumption to go after what used to be termed Mondeo Man right now.

Mondeo man has hocked his car for food.

awec

Rjd2 wrote: »

Corbyn knows well the damage Brexit will do the base he supposedly cares most about as do most people, however he has decided the pain that will bring is worth it long term if it leads to him been in power.

At least with Mogg and Johnson, we know they have contempt for these people despite the tired cliches, however we expect more from the leader of the main left wing party in the UK.

I don't think this is true.

I think Corbyn, and his Momentum mates, actually believe that Brexit will lead to a revival of british manufacturing and a revival of the british working classes.

LuckyLloyd

prawnsambo wrote: »

These are Labour members and MPs. You keep forgetting this. Conveniently I suspect. The issue with any kind of discrimination or hate crime is that the people who experience it are almost always told that it's imaginary. By people who don't experience it. You were presented with evidence today and just walked past it without comment. Because it doesn't suit your narrative. And it's almost laughable that your source for rebuttal is Wikipedia. I'm not saying that Wikipedia is inaccurate, it's that the sum total of your knowledge was so poor that that's where you went for rebuttal.

Excuse me, I posted a simple unambiguous summary of what the issue is supposed to be and how it was adjudicated by two inquiries. Because it is constantly the case that people talk about an antisemitism issue within labour without offering anything broad or concrete. Pulling individual tweets out for analysis doesn't prove anything as you can surely pull individual tweets or social media posts from British citizens every hour of the day that demonstrate hate or racism or whatever. Fundamentally, there have been allegations that prompted inquiries that adjudged no material fundamental issue. Allegations that do get logged get investigated: hence the examples of internal sanction.

Which leaves us with the reality: people continuing to shout louder and louder and louder because the louder they shout the more traction they get and the further it moves them to their actual concern or objective: ousting Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour party.

Franz Von Peppercorn

awec wrote: »

I don't think this is true.

I think Corbyn, and his Momentum mates, actually believe that Brexit will lead to a revival of british manufacturing and a revival of the british working classes.

They probably believe that they need some kind of State aid to do that, yes. However naive that is.

Professor Moriarty

awec wrote: »

I don't think this is true.

I think Corbyn, and his Momentum mates, actually believe that Brexit will lead to a revival of british manufacturing and a revival of the british working classes.

That ship has sailed. Never mind the impending massacre of jobs that AI will bring or the trading obstacles to be created by Brexit, other countries can now manufacture good much cheaper than Britain. You can't revive a corpse.

awec

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That ship has sailed. Never mind the impending massacre of jobs that AI will bring or the trading obstacles to be created by Brexit, other countries can now manufacture good much cheaper than Britain. You can't revive a corpse.

Well, they believe (IMO) that if buying imported goods is more difficult and more expensive that people will just pay more to buy stuff manufactured in the UK.

They are betting that demand will remain constant, and that British manufacturing will have to grow to meet that demand in a world where the EU free market is no longer able to do so to the same extent.

This in turn will drive up wages. But everything just becomes more expensive, so it's kind of pointless really.

Professor Moriarty

awec wrote: »

Well, they believe (IMO) that if buying imported goods is more difficult and more expensive that people will just pay more to buy stuff manufactured in the UK.



They are betting that demand will remain constant, and that British manufacturing will have to grow to meet that demand in a world where the EU free market is no longer able to do so to the same extent.

Which is illogical. In order for people to be able to pay more for their goods they must have more money. To create more money you need to trade. Unless you create a self-sufficient communist society. Which hasn't worked out well to date.

awec

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which is illogical. In order for people to be able to pay more for their goods they must have more money. To create more money you need to trade. Unless you create a self-sufficient communist society. Which hasn't worked out well to date.

Yes, I agree.

I do think this self-sufficient communist state is the wet dream of many of those who have taken over the Labour party these days.

Professor Moriarty

awec wrote: »

Yes, I agree.

I do think this self-sufficient communist state is the wet dream of many of those who have taken over the Labour party these days.

It is. Just as the ERG has hijacked the Tory party, Momentum has hijacked Labour. There's a very large centrist vacuum being created which will eventually marginalise both parties if they maintain their current policies and strategies.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which is illogical. In order for people to be able to pay more for their goods they must have more money. To create more money you need to trade. Unless you create a self-sufficient communist society. Which hasn't worked out well to date.

Surely the idea is to get more people into more and better paid jobs which tends to promote demand.

Anyway if wages are going to stagnate forever now (or get worse) then I don’t see centrism working.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is. Just as the ERG has hijacked the Tory party, Momentum has hijacked Labour. There's a very large centrist vacuum being created which will eventually marginalise both parties if they maintain their current policies and strategies.

Again. And again. And again. Centrism as it once was is dead.

And 65% of under 40 year olds supported Labour in the last election, fully aware of the manifesto. That’s the centre.

awec

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Surely the idea is to get more people into more and better paid jobs which tends to promote demand.

Anyway if wages are going to stagnate forever now (or get worse) then I don’t see centrism working.

Where do these better paid jobs come from?

markodaly

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Again. And again. And again. Centrism as it once was is dead.

And 65% of under 40 year olds supported Labour in the last election, fully aware of the manifesto. That’s the centre.

You keep repeating the same debunked theory that the centre is dead. The centre is holding in many countries, and not in others. That does not mean we are in 1929 Europe again.

Young people grow up and get older and get more conservative, they will not always vote Labour.

Again, why would young people vote for Labour when they are Pro Remain and Pro Peoples vote, while Corbyn wont grant them one.

markodaly

Centrism seems to be a code word for Globalisation and free markets. Those that want it dead want to cut themselves off from the world and recreate an idyllic nostalgic version of the past. The 1970's for the Corbynistas or the 1950s for the Tory Brexiters.

Both are wrong and deluded.

quokula

markodaly wrote: »

You keep repeating the same debunked theory that the centre is dead. The centre is holding in many countries, and not in others. That does not mean we are in 1929 Europe again.

Young people grow up and get older and get more conservative, they will not always vote Labour.

Again, why would young people vote for Labour when they are Pro Remain and Pro Peoples vote, while Corbyn wont grant them one.

How young are these young people that need to grow up? Because Labour came out on top for the entire working age population at the last election, you have to get into retirees before Conservatives take a lead.

LuckyLloyd

markodaly wrote: »

Centrism seems to be a code word for Globalisation and free markets. Those that want it dead want to cut themselves off from the world and recreate an idyllic nostalgic version of the past. The 1970's for the Corbynistas or the 1950s for the Tory Brexiters.

Both are wrong and deluded.

We can continue labeling people wrong and deluded all we like and people can continue trotting out old electoral cliches like 'reclaim the centre ground to win'. Meanwhile huge swathes of people in the UK are becoming increasingly poorer, with a retraction of public services and a creeping loss of hope. And all they hear is about how unemployment is down and jobs are being created: cherry picked stats that are at odds with lived reality. We're approaching a decade of continued austerity and year on year retraction of state services in the UK. Half way through that cycle those voting had already started to listen for different solutions and different messaging.

I understand the reality. Globalisation necessarily implies a redistribution of certain types of jobs and economic activity from the West to developing economies. The process has just accelerated rapidly over a two decade period. And unfortunately while that was happening, politicians lied to the people to make them go to war and were caught out unambiguously on it. You're not selling New Labour or One Nation Conservatism to these people. They're not buying it and - if I'm honest - I can't blame them.

Hence why Labour can print a throwback socialism manifesto with a slogan like #forthemanynotthefew and have Corbyn in Tv town halls telling business owners that they have to bear a higher minimum wage because it's the right thing to do and gain 40%, 40%! of the electorate on it.

I don't know how you resell globalisation to those left behind, but telling them they're stupid certainly isn't the way to go about it.

prawnsambo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Excuse me, I posted a simple unambiguous summary of what the issue is supposed to be and how it was adjudicated by two inquiries. Because it is constantly the case that people talk about an antisemitism issue within labour without offering anything broad or concrete. Pulling individual tweets out for analysis doesn't prove anything as you can surely pull individual tweets or social media posts from British citizens every hour of the day that demonstrate hate or racism or whatever. Fundamentally, there have been allegations that prompted inquiries that adjudged no material fundamental issue. Allegations that do get logged get investigated: hence the examples of internal sanction.

I did quote something broader and more concrete. The number of complaints that Labour said they received and the outcome of at least some of those complaints. And coincidentally that number was almost exactly the same number that the police services say they received in a broadly similar time frame.

But you don't have to look at one tweet or even a few. You can do a seacrh on any of those who have complained for keywords like 'israel' and you find that there are a disproportionate number of people (very many Labour supporters) asking these MPs to condemn various outrages carried out by the Israeli government. And you wonder why. Because it's surely not because they're Jewish, is it?

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Again. And again. And again. Centrism as it once was is dead.

And 65% of under 40 year olds supported Labour in the last election, fully aware of the manifesto. That’s the centre.

Centrism, as you put it, may well be dead. However, if you think that a Momentum driven Labour will be elected in a FPTP system then I'm afraid you're in for a shock. Corbyn and his policies are the Tories' trump card.

Newsbeat

I wouldn't vote for labour because they have Dianne abbot as shadow home secretary.

LuckyLloyd

prawnsambo wrote: »

I did quote something broader and more concrete. The number of complaints that Labour said they received and the outcome of at least some of those complaints. And coincidentally that number was almost exactly the same number that the police services say they received in a broadly similar time frame.

But you don't have to look at one tweet or even a few. You can do a seacrh on any of those who have complained for keywords like 'israel' and you find that there are a disproportionate number of people (very many Labour supporters) asking these MPs to condemn various outrages carried out by the Israeli government. And you wonder why. Because it's surely not because they're Jewish, is it?

Clearly we disagree on this and neither of us is convincing the other.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Centrism, as you put it, may well be dead. However, if you think that a Momentum driven Labour will be elected in a FPTP system then I'm afraid you're in for a shock. Corbyn and his policies are the Tories' trump card.

He got 65% of the vote from under 40s. This is not in fact normal - although some people move to the right as they age the Labour Party has never had that level of support, and nor is 39 that young.

And there are strong economic and structural reasons why this will continue.

So its either Corbyn or somebody like Corbyn. Asking people to suck it up because of globalisation, is not a winning strategy.

Leroy42

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

He got 65% of the vote from under 40s. This is not in fact normal - although some people move to the right as they age the Labour Party has never had that level of support, and nor is 39 that young.

And there are strong economic and structural reasons why this will continue.

So its either Corbyn or somebody like Corbyn. Asking people to suck it up because of globalisation, is not a winning strategy.

But since then the youth, who are much more in favour of remain, feel that they are being ignored. Are you sure that these youth will simply continue to vote for him?

And the last line could very well be right. I do believe that people want something different, and were looking to Corbyn for that. The reason he hasn't continued to poll well is that it is clear, now that he got all these people politically engaged, that he is not really concerned with changing things for the better, only to change things to suit his agenda.

So get in a competent, charismatic leader, one that not only has policies but can articulate them and hold those that fail to meet them to account and you are onto a winner.

Amirani

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

He got 65% of the vote from under 40s. This is not in fact normal - although some people move to the right as they age the Labour Party has never had that level of support, and nor is 39 that young.

And there are strong economic and structural reasons why this will continue.

So its either Corbyn or somebody like Corbyn. Asking people to suck it up because of globalisation, is not a winning strategy.

I think some of that 65% is as much anti-Tory as pro-Labour. It's quite hard to separate the two. I know if I was voting in UK elections at the moment, I'd almost certainly be voting Labour, but this would mainly be to reduce the chances of a Conservative winning.

An Ciarraioch

Amirani wrote: »

I think some of that 65% is as much anti-Tory as pro-Labour. It's quite hard to separate the two. I know if I was voting in UK elections at the moment, I'd almost certainly be voting Labour, but this would mainly be to reduce the chances of a Conservative winning.

You do wonder how much of the figure comes from ex-Lib Dem supporters who moved to Labour after the student fees fiasco, but have no permanent political leanings.

LuckyLloyd

Between him being confirmed as Labour leader in 2015 and the 2017 general election being called we were told repeatedly about what a joke shop Corbyn was, how hard left policies in the UK had no base of support and how we was expected to be crushed at the ballot box.

He got 40%.

Now it’s the same stuff again about how he’ll be crushed at the ballot box with explanations that his 40% in 2017 was because of this, that and the other. Anything but an endorsement of his manifesto and campaign. Fair enough.