Munster Team Talk Thread - Snymans are(n't) Forever

CIARAN_BOYLE

I'm personally of the opinion that I like the South African teams.

That said it needs to make sense and travel is one of the things that needs to make sense.

If the South African teams are in the league and in Europe it should be putting us in a position where teams can just fly London to South Africa direct. I know its much more expensive but its so much quicker. If it doesn't financial make sense to fly direct it doesn't make sense for them to be taking part in NH competition.

Neil3030

None of the URC teams are in London, so the "12-hour direct flight" is irrelevant.

For Irish teams, it's either 14-16 hours via a major European hub.

Or it's ~18 hours via Doha.

(assuming a minimum 2-hour layover whatever way you go)

And don't Qatar Airways contribute to the flights via a sponsorship or something?

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120416789#Comment_120416789

Fairer (and easier) to just consider Carbery the starter for the first test, since he came on after half an hour.

If you wanted to fairly distribute the data from that game:

The 14 points conceded while Sexton was on the pitch brings his average to 13.

The 28 points conceded while Carbery was on the pitch brings his average to 20

If anyone wants to do this for the rest of the games they may be my guest.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120417120#Comment_120417120

Quoted the wrong post above.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120418156#Comment_120418156

Good analysis, Neil; the irish rugby website gives a match timeline, so if I get a chance, I might have a look at exactly that, scored vs conceded with their time on the pitch, but I'd imagine it'll only confirm what you've done above.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120418156#Comment_120418156

If you wanted to fairly distribute the data from that game:

The 14 points conceded while Sexton was on the pitch brings his average to 13.

The 28 points conceded while Carbery was on the pitch brings his average to 20.

Is that fair distribution? By your metric, we were 100% worse defensively with Carbery that day - but in reality, we conceded 14 in 30 mins with Sexton (0.46 pts/min) vs 28 in 50 mins with Carbery (0.56 pts/min), so the difference is actually only 20%.

But it's irrelevant, we don't need any stats to tell us that Carbery is not remotely as good in defence as Sexton and any stats that tell us different would be nonsense. Here's the rub though - he's not competing with Sexton at Munster. Munster don't have a genius-level OH waiting in the wings to take his spot so it's a lot less clear-cut.

You say it's only a matter of time before Crowley takes the jersey. Maybe it is... but looking at it with your model, Crowley was on the pitch for all 80 minutes of the Glasgow game. Go back to the Scarlets game, Munster conceded 14 points in 53 minutes with Carbery on the pitch, and 28 points in 27 minutes after he was replaced by Crowley...

The defensive issues we've seen in the last two matches go way beyond the out-half. Like, Carbery has been absolutely slaughtered all week for "THAT PASS" - fair enough - but that pass only resulted in a scrum ten metres out. From there, Glasgow go wide right and Munster have loads of defensive cover, but proceed to miss three tackles in rapid succession (Daly, Kendellen and Coombes) before Glasgow crash over. It's not Carbery or Crowley's fault the forwards got mauled over the line from 15 metres out for the first try, or that Haley just waved the guy through for the second try.

What's my point, you may well ask. I don't think the Munster management are quite as ready to ditch Carbery as the fans are, or they don't share the unshakeable conviction that Crowley is the better OH.

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120418134#Comment_120418134

Completely a fair view.

I've heard a lot of teams having long layovers in Doha (6+ hours) while I believe the regional hub can be managed better.

I think more about the London to South Africa direct as its easier to get a sleep on that type of flight imo.

There's also often a regional flight in South Africa at the end so whatever the situation is it won't be direct.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120418526#Comment_120418526

What's my point, you may well ask. I don't think the Munster management are quite as ready to ditch Carbery as the fans are.

You could substitute "Ireland management" in there prior to the 6N and that sentiment would have been the same. But they decided on a change. Equally:

Here's the rub though - he's not competing with Sexton at Munster.

He evidently wasn't with Ireland either; he was competing for the back-up spot and subsequently lost that battle.

I've been saying on here for 18 months or more that I think Crowley will be our starting 10 in the medium-term (ever before the EI tour or his start vs Australia). I wouldn't have any qualms if that started now (but equally I can understand why they may stick with Carbery for the remainder of the season).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120418650#Comment_120418650

Not quite the same situation - Ross Byrne (whether you rate him or not) has a huge amount of experience and is tested upto European level. Crowley, whether a higher ceiling or not still has a lot to prove at 10 at any level.

I would be surprised if Munster pivot away from Carbery at this stage of the season, but they will know best where he is. His confidence must be in the dog house but again he might be the sort of character that just gets on with it.

Business end of the season really isn't the time to be bedding in a new out half. If Carbery were injured I wouldn't be massively surprised if Healy started instead.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120418864#Comment_120418864

Pretty much. I don't think anyone would claim Carbery to be anything more than decent, I just find it hard to square "Carbery is shyte, time to give the jersey to Crowley" with "Crowley has two starts at 10 all season". It would be a big move to give him the start this week or next.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120418890#Comment_120418890

is that POM level of "decent" ???? 😉

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120419055#Comment_120419055

I think you'll find that's pronounced "daycent kid".

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120418526#Comment_120418526

I trust that you'll never gift an opposition team a scrum in your 22 by way of a terrible decision. But in the off chance that you do, and proceed to inform your forwards that it's their fault for then conceding a try, I strongly advise that you arrange for a third party to film that encounter.

Not that this will increase your odds of survival, more so if you trust the cameraman to transfer copyright to your estate, your next of kin might get a few quid via the black market for snuff films...

Cookiemunster

It is the forwards fault for conceding that try. The ball to Coombes was fine. He shouldn't have dropped it.

Then the pack gave away a scrum pen.

Then the forwards failed to defend a very soft try.

I was standing in that corner, metres from the play and literally nobody around me blamed Carbery for the try. We were all complaining about the awful defence. It wasn't until I came online on Sunday that I realised that Carbery's pass seemed to be an issue.

People have taken his missed kicks against Tolouse and decided that he's useless. His all round game outside of the kicking was excellent that day. It was a shock to most people (including the pundits) that he wasn't picked for the 6N squad, because he was playing some of his best rugby in ages.

To borrow from Life of Brian, he's not the Messiah, nor is he a naughty boy. Some people do seem to have it in for him though, mainly from what I've seen online, because he's not from Munster.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120420643#Comment_120420643

It's that very shock that sent me looking for any trend in his data (for Ireland) that might explain Farrell's decision. I was expecting it to be on the attacking side of things, but instead saw some possible evidence that it's a defensive risk that led to his omission. And then a few things clicked - Farrell being defense first, and the recent games where Munster were quite open in midfield. The only reason I brought up "that pass" was that management at 10 might have implications for conceded points.

I'm certainly not out to get him. I commented at the time that he'll likely get heat but that the issue was more with Munster's 10-12 axis. One of him or Crowley back to 10, and we'll look an awful lot better. But over time, if the defensive side of things are the issue, Crowley will eventually get the shirt.

sprucemoose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120420643#Comment_120420643

i cant speak for others, but my reasons for not being a big fan of carbery have little to do with him not being from munster. the only semblance of a link to that for me is that i think he has been shoehorned into the team/squad ahead of what i think/thought are better options who happen to be from the province.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120420643#Comment_120420643

Some people do seem to have it in for him though, mainly from what I've seen online, because he's not from Munster.

Ah, I dunno, I can’t say I’ve come across that myself, and I really hope that’s not the case (and certainly isn’t from me).

There’s many a non-Munster man has been embraced over the years.

typhoony

Not sure that the path to the No.10 Jersey for Crowley at munster and ireland is certain, I think he may end up playing at centre. And just as carbery was seen as the heir apparent to sexton and the reality set in that Ross byrne is the best 2nd option I can see a scenario where Prendergast overtakes both in the next 3 years. Munster would be better off looking for a proven NIQ 10.

phog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120421351#Comment_120421351

Why would Munster look at a NIQ 10 without at least trying someone like Crowley, I mean he's been 3rd choice for Ireland in the recent 6Ns

I really don't see the rush to dump on players

sprucemoose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120421351#Comment_120421351

i dont think any of this makes sense really tbh but i would definitely think it unlikely that a NIQ 10 gets brought into any of the provinces anytime soon

Buer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120420643#Comment_120420643

I don't think the pass was great at all but it was compounded by Coombes being momentarily unsighted as Casey was in the way. Carbery has to take a chunk of responsibility just as Coombes, Hodnett and Daly should take ownership of their defensive errors in scoring of the try.

I've defended Carbery's performance but I don't think he's particularly excellent as an outhalf. He's too indecisive overall where you can see others knowing exactly what their go to options are before they even receive the ball. Carbery sometimes goes for his pass and then delays, checks back and tries to make the gain line himself which has long been an issue as it leads to slow ball and no outhalf in the backline. I didn't think that was the case on Saturday.

There will always be something of a confirmation bias at play when people have their minds made up on a player and once public opinion starts to swing, you're pissing into the wind if you want to disagree. People will see what they want to see. I heard one commentator this week give out that he had a situation with slow ball in the first half and was thinking he should kick it away but instead he tried to put width on it, Glasgow intercepted the pass but spilled the ball forward. I thought I was seeing things so checked it again. It was Fekitoa who was at first receiver. People see what they want at times.

Once a new young outhalf came along, people are going to jump onto that train. Crowley looks more assured. He is decisive in his play and there's no lack of confidence there.

That doesn't necessarily make for a great outhalf though. He still makes plenty of errors but, because of his age and the buzz around him, people will be more forgiving of those and rightly so as he develops experience. He threw an intercept himself at the weekend and a few passes caused the carrier to check or slow their run so there's certainly scope to get better and if he does iron out those issues, he'll be a really good outhalf. But he needs to play 10 and get moving now. He's not exactly an academy player anymore (only 6 months younger than Ben Healy) so that goodwill will start to run out in the next year, I'd imagine.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120421386#Comment_120421386

It would be madness, Crowley has all the attributes to be a top level 10. I think Munsters poor start to the season and lack of centres has got in the way this season. Long term he will be Munster and possibly Ireland’s 10. With only the unknown of Prendergast being a real challenge there in the next World Cup cycle.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120422041#Comment_120422041

I'd agree in the main with that; there's an element of the unknown with Crowley, vs certainty with Carbery. Certainly from an attacking perspective, and place-kicking too, where Carbery is superior imo, albeit he's not having a brilliant season in that regard. And at this point in the season, I can see the reasons to continue with Carbery

But, imo, that element of the unknown wanes when you look at defence; my own impression is that Crowley is a much, much stronger defender. Certainly significantly more robust in the tackle.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120422060#Comment_120422060

 I think Munsters poor start to the season and lack of centres has got in the way this season.

Very much agree. You can probably add injury issues too, which have seen Crowley get time at 15 as well.

jcon1913

Always the responsibility of the passer to give a good pass. Carbery doesn’t have the vision to be an outhalf IMHO.

. He has a very good step and can unlock defenses. But teams figured out his step a long time ago so are not surprised by it anymore.

Who could have watched him waltz through the New Zealand defense in Chicago and not think “this is the dawn of a new era for Irish rugby “? But it hasn’t worked out that way.

nothing to do with where he’s from or any of that. He pulls on a Munster jersey- he’s a Munster player- end of.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120420461#Comment_120420461

See, that's where you're wrong Neil, I was notorious for pointing fingers and passing the buck during my playing days.

Carbery gets the stick for an unsympathetic pass. You could argue Coombes wasn't tuned in, but then Carbery shouldn't have thrown it.

But once the balls breaks from the ensuing scrum, Munster had the numbers to snuff out the attack with no issues, and it's not Carbery's fault they didn't.

If Carbery is out of the national squad for his rubbish defence, as you very reasonably suggest, then the sort of effort we saw from certain Munster forwards in that phase might give some insight as to why they're on the outside too.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120422534#Comment_120422534

The pass was a complete momentum killer, tho. To me, it's a bigger error in the context of the game, than just looking at the specific incident in isolation.

Munster had just gotten a foothold back in the game, with Casey playing very well. That's where you want your experienced 10 to impose himself on the game. And iirc, didn't Carbery let the ball bounce as well before throwing that pass too? And was a tackler (with Hodnett) on the try-scorer?

For me, after the scrum-penalty advantage, Daly and Kendellen were most responsible but Carbery had a fairly major role in it too, starting from kick-off after Casey's try.

TomsOnTheRoof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120421341#Comment_120421341

Conway being the perfect example.

durthacht

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120420643#Comment_120420643

In fairness, most of the comments that I see of Carbery are much as you say - that's his performances are okay to good, but just a little short of the top-class level Ireland and Munster want in a fly half.

aloooof

Crowley to start at 10 with Carbery on the bench, and Snyman to start. 6-2 split. Frisch back. Casey ahead of Murray.

Munster: Mike Haley; Calvin Nash, Antoine Frisch, Malakai Fekitoa, Shane Daly; Jack Crowley, Craig Casey; Dave Kilcoyne, Niall Scannell, Roman Salanoa; Jean Kleyn, RG Snyman; Peter O’Mahony (C), John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes.

Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Josh Wycherley, Stephen Archer, Fineen Wycherley, Jack O’Donoghue, Conor Murray, Joey Carbery, Alex Kendellen.