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When will the general public reach the stage 4 of denial?

  • 05-03-2019 1:43pm
    #1
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭


    Having been here at the Electric Vehicles & Hybrids for quite some time I have seen the classic progress of opinions regarding a disruptive technology action.

    1. First they ignore you
    2. Then the riducule you
    3. Then they fight you
    4. Then you win

    We appear to have entered the phase 3 quite firmly by now. The phase 1 was conquered when Mad_lad did sterling effort and finally got the mods to branch this forum from the main Motors back in about 2013.

    The phase two was quite a long one and even now in 2019 there are odd snide remarks about the gen 1 LEAF. But even on the main forums we are entered well into the phase 3 now, while many have, at least in principle, admitted that future is bright and almost exclusively better post ICE for daily driving.

    So when will the general car driving population realise the advantages of the BEVs and wonder why it took them so long to convert from being a fossil. I'm personally guessing it won't happen until 2020-21. And if availability is there not many will continue to buy a new ICE as their main mode of transport post 2023. So I predict we'll reach Norway like car buying stats by 2023 even without extra CO2 taxes.


«13456712

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,881 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    I think with the general population we are already more at stage 4 than stage 3. Most people now know all new cars will be fully electric in just over 10 years time. the past 12 months saw a big shift. We were still in stage 2/3 this time last year. Although there are strong voices, i.e. in the main motors forum, who are still loudly protesting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,476 ✭✭✭✭DrPhilG


    Almost everyone I speak to these days admits that the future is electric and accepts that some day they will have to change.

    Most are actually quite open to the change once it becomes more affordable.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,452 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    It depends on your motivation. I fully accept the concept, the validity and the benefits of the type, I have experienced friends' EVs, however I retain valid and unaddressed concerns as well as personal issues of leisure, enjoyment and nostalgia.

    Q. When will I be assured that both the electricity generated and the elements that make up the batteries and cells are not harmful to the environment?

    Statement: I love the history, familiarity, sensation and interactivity of a petrol combustion engine. Even when an EV inevitably becomes my daily transport, I will keep a classic ICE car for leisure purposes.


  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think the vast majority of people know what's coming. There's probably more demand than supply right now as it happens.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,147 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Q. When will I be assured that both the electricity generated and the elements that make up the batteries and cells are not harmful to the environment?

    At the same time that you are assured that your ICE is also not harmful to the environment. :P


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,858 ✭✭✭creedp


    DrPhilG wrote: »
    Almost everyone I speak to these days admits that the future is electric and accepts that some day they will have to change.

    Most are actually quite open to the change once it becomes more affordable.

    Also people's perception must change so that they accept that an EV will cover most of the needs they have come to expect from ICE cars ... I'm damn glad I wasn't in my Leaf on the M7 last Sunday with 5 on board and over 160kms left of a 350km journey. With over 500kms real range remaining I was able to divert 'off piste' and head cross country without any range anxiety allowing me to save at least an hour of journey time.

    I know people will say that's an exceptional event but it doesn't matter as exceptional events do happen and many people are loathe to go the full EV route at the moment and forgo the flexibility that ICE's / Hybrids provide.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    I think your in the first few seconds of stage one. The car that will reach stage 4 hasn't been made yet.
    Until you can pick up an EV for 1k with a 500km range can you declare victory. (i.e they are accessible to everyone).
    Realistically I think your talking about 15-20yrs but I'm not convinced the batteries in today's car will even still be capable of powering a car then as they've depleted so much.


  • Administrators, Computer Games Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 32,433 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Mickeroo


    I think your in the first few seconds of stage one. The car that will reach stage 4 hasn't been made yet.
    Until you can pick up an EV for 1k with a 500km range can you declare victory. (i.e they are accessible to everyone).
    Realistically I think your talking about 15-20yrs but I'm not convinced the batteries in today's car will even still be capable of powering a car then as they've depleted so much.

    I dunno, your post definitely makes me think it's stage 2 at the very least. :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Mickeroo wrote: »
    I dunno, your post definitely makes me think it's stage 2 at the very least. :pac:

    When your digging lithium out of the ground with diesel power it's always going to make a few people giggle when you start talking like a hippy:pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,147 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    When your digging lithium out of the ground with diesel power it's always going to make a few people giggle when you start talking like a hippy:pac:

    I dont see the connection?
    Plant machinery doesnt have to shift to diesel at the same time as cars do.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,295 ✭✭✭n97 mini


    My own observation if there's a rural/urban divide. I've several rural based friends who are firmly wedded to diesel, usually SUVs, and have no intention of changing. The reasons vary from wanting to be seen in a big car (Model X is too expensive!) to not being able to get out of their driveways in bad weather because of a lack of four wheel drive.

    Urban on the other hand, several friends already already have EVs, with others considering it. Those who aren't, again it usually comes down to what they're seen in, though with a few it's financial.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    KCross wrote: »
    I dont see the connection?
    Plant machinery doesnt have to shift to diesel at the same time as cars do.

    It's not just plant machinery it's the whole lifestyle of the EV, it's not green or anything close to it. If it wasn't for cheap fuel nobody would have one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,147 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    It's not just plant machinery it's the whole lifestyle of the EV, it's not green or anything close to it. If it wasn't for cheap fuel nobody would have one.

    - Its greener than ICE.
    - It, as you said, has cheap fuel.
    - They are much nicer to drive than ICE.... a bit subjective but I think most agree when you compare like for like.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    KCross wrote: »
    - Its greener than ICE.
    - It, as you said, has cheap fuel.
    - They are much nicer to drive than ICE.... a bit subjective but I think most agree when you compare like for like.

    - it's not green can we forget that claim it may be better than what went before but it's certainly not green.
    - cheap fuel is a short term thing you'll pay in the future and you'll pay for the speed of the top up.
    - I wouldn't agree there nicer to drive would I spend 25k on a leaf or a 335d, I'd take the diesel any day.

    Your talking to a petrol head so I'll always pick the fun car, I'm not seeing any fun in these cars unless you spend a lot of money and then it's not as much fun as the equivalent petrol/diesel.
    I've no doubt I'll buy an EV over the next few years, the GTE got my attention but the trade offs are simply not worth it the same with the 330e. Good idea badly executed as the technology simply isn't there yet. Which is why I said we're only at the beginning and not stage 4.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,147 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    - it's not green can we forget that claim it may be better than what went before but it's certainly not green.

    I didnt say green. I said greener than ICE. Do you disagree with that?

    - cheap fuel is a short term thing you'll pay in the future and you'll pay for the speed of the top up.

    You'd have to define short term. I'd say it will be cheaper than ICE for a long time to come.

    - I wouldn't agree there nicer to drive would I spend 25k on a leaf or a 335d, I'd take the diesel any day.

    I said "like for like". Why would you compare a new Leaf and a s/h 335d?
    Sure you can buy an S-Class Merc for pittance... how is that relevant?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,976 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    - it's not green can we forget that claim it may be better than what went before but it's certainly not green.
    - cheap fuel is a short term thing you'll pay in the future and you'll pay for the speed of the top up.
    - I wouldn't agree there nicer to drive would I spend 25k on a leaf or a 335d, I'd take the diesel any day.

    Your talking to a petrol head so I'll always pick the fun car, I'm not seeing any fun in these cars unless you spend a lot of money and then it's not as much fun as the equivalent petrol/diesel.
    I've no doubt I'll buy an EV over the next few years, the GTE got my attention but the trade offs are simply not worth it the same with the 330e. Good idea badly executed as the technology simply isn't there yet. Which is why I said we're only at the beginning and not stage 4.

    Can’t compare a 335d to a Leaf.
    Compare like for like.

    From someone who has had a broad range of fast German cars, sports couples and big powered Jap cars and currently an EV for over 2 years now.

    I find myself getting into the EV more than the F10 or the E60 that we had before that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,658 ✭✭✭✭OldMrBrennan83


    I, like most people, know it's the future but know the future just isn't ready for a lot of us yet. I want to be able to go where I want to go with minimal faff. For now, pulling in for 5 minutes and then going on my way is minimal faff. 7 or 8 minutes if someone else is ahead of me.

    It's coming, but it's not there yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    kceire wrote: »
    Can’t compare a 335d to a Leaf.
    Compare like for like.

    Nothing to compare it to only a model s. Then the diesel is a no brainer with the 100k saving.

    I suppose it would be fair to compare a leaf to a corolla then it's if it suits you the leaf is probably the smart choice.

    There's not an EV for everyone yet, maybe the golf ID could be tipping point as it ticks a lot of boxes for a lot of people.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,221 ✭✭✭✭m5ex9oqjawdg2i


    - it's not green can we forget that claim it may be better than what went before but it's certainly not green.
    - cheap fuel is a short term thing you'll pay in the future and you'll pay for the speed of the top up.
    - I wouldn't agree there nicer to drive would I spend 25k on a leaf or a 335d, I'd take the diesel any day.

    Your talking to a petrol head so I'll always pick the fun car, I'm not seeing any fun in these cars unless you spend a lot of money and then it's not as much fun as the equivalent petrol/diesel.
    I've no doubt I'll buy an EV over the next few years, the GTE got my attention but the trade offs are simply not worth it the same with the 330e. Good idea badly executed as the technology simply isn't there yet. Which is why I said we're only at the beginning and not stage 4.

    Nothing you are saying here makes any sense. Oh, the poster you quoted said it was "greener" not "green".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,295 ✭✭✭n97 mini


    - I wouldn't agree there nicer to drive would I spend 25k on a leaf or a 335d, I'd take the diesel any day.

    You're comparing a 147bhp FWD car with a 309bhp RWD car that's prone to catching fire. Not really a like-for-like comparison.

    Having said that I'd wager most people would prefer the Leaf to drive. I know I would.
    Your talking to a petrol head

    A petrol head advocating diesel! I can understand the attraction to the roar of a big petrol V8 or a high revving V10, but not the rattle and dirt of a diesel...


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,976 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Some of the lads in work are adamant that hydrogen is the way forward and that it will replace electric cars in a few years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭99nsr125


    kceire wrote: »
    Some of the lads in work are adamant that hydrogen is the way forward and that it will replace electric cars in a few years.

    If you're looking for an easy renewable transition, methane, we can make it, refuel quickly and it burns as clean as can be


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    kceire wrote: »
    Some of the lads in work are adamant that hydrogen is the way forward and that it will replace electric cars in a few years.

    Volkswagen are bringing out a gas mk8 golf according to an article today. I don't the lithium batteries of today are the future.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,174 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    n97 mini wrote: »
    You're comparing a 147bhp FWD car with a 309bhp RWD car that's prone to catching fire. Not really a like-for-like comparison.

    Having said that I'd wager most people would prefer the Leaf to drive. I know I would.
    Between a Nissan Leaf and a Beemer 335d? Depends on the "most people" one hangs about with I suppose. The A-B types who came from a Yaris or similar. I've read on forums and the like and even a neighbour of mine who has gone full EV* that they felt the Leaf was "sporty". I mean what sort of cars have these people driven? I personally found driving a Leaf utterly devoid of feel. Akin to making the beast with two backs in one of these.
    [IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/Gradbišče_hidroelektrarne_Ožbalt_1958,_potapljač.jpg/220px-Gradbišče_hidroelektrarne_Ožbalt_1958,_potapljač.jpg[/IMG]
    Dead linear steering(though the Leaf is not the only car with this, ICE or EV) and leaden brake feel and suspension/roadholding. To be fair the segment ICE or EV is not exactly bristling with nimble hot hatches. The initial take off felt fast, because well, it was more instant, but it ran outa puff. It looked awful with it, though to be fair the new model is a vast improvement in that regard. If you've come from a Yaris or similar and that suits and fair enough, or you only drive in an urban/suburban environment(which most do) or you have to wear placcy gloves while filling up with the horrid hydrocarbons, then I could certainly see the Leaf as a good alternative.

    The filing up bit looks to be a moot point if the blurb from Piech's newly announced Mark Zero is to be believed. Apparently they can charge their hyper car battery in under five minutes. If they can and it doesn't go up like a roman candle, then that tech will hit the rest of the EV ranges in short order.

    I would reckon the EV revolution will go fully mainstream when those early adopters who treat the things like a religious movement with associated po faced proselytisation are the minority buyers. Much like the PC and IT revolution. The early IT guys were nerdy Sheldon cooper types with pocket protectors geeking out over clock speeds and it was a pretty minority pursuit, but when Jane in the hairdressers could google the latest winners from Britain's got Special Needs then it's gone mainstream.

    *the same chap has had by my count two Prius' and two Leafs and is looking to get the latest Leaf or an i3. When it's pointed out to him the waste in his personal churn it goes over his head like the International Space Station.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,295 ✭✭✭n97 mini


    Seriously, the only reason anyone would drive a diesel is the chape tax. As regards the driving experience, I've yet to drive one that doesn't feel, eh, agricultural.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Mike9832


    Nothing to compare it to only a model s. Then the diesel is a no brainer with the 100k saving.

    I suppose it would be fair to compare a leaf to a corolla then it's if it suits you the leaf is probably the smart choice.

    There's not an EV for everyone yet, maybe the golf ID could be tipping point as it ticks a lot of boxes for a lot of people.

    Model 3 would blow the doors off a 335D and its cheaper


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,658 ✭✭✭✭OldMrBrennan83


    Mike9832 wrote: »
    Model 3 would blow the doors off a 335D and its cheaper

    For a while anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Mike9832 wrote: »
    Model 3 would blow the doors off a 335D and its cheaper

    Yea when the battery explodes beside it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,957 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    samih wrote: »
    Having been here at the Electric Vehicles & Hybrids for quite some time I have seen the classic progress of opinions regarding a disruptive technology action.

    1. First they ignore you
    2. Then the riducule you
    3. Then they fight you
    4. Then you win

    We appear to have entered the phase 3 quite firmly by now. The phase 1 was conquered when Mad_lad did sterling effort and finally got the mods to branch this forum from the main Motors back in about 2013.

    The phase two was quite a long one and even now in 2019 there are odd snide remarks about the gen 1 LEAF. But even on the main forums we are entered well into the phase 3 now, while many have, at least in principle, admitted that future is bright and almost exclusively better post ICE for daily driving.

    So when will the general car driving population realise the advantages of the BEVs and wonder why it took them so long to convert from being a fossil. I'm personally guessing it won't happen until 2020-21. And if availability is there not many will continue to buy a new ICE as their main mode of transport post 2023. So I predict we'll reach Norway like car buying stats by 2023 even without extra CO2 taxes.

    Just popped in and looked at this thread for the first time. Previously I have nothing against electric cars/hybrids owners.
    But to read condescending posts like this one where non-electric car and non-hybrid owners are viewed as inferior and less developed. It would make the likes of me say f**k that arrogant, smug, sh1te talk. The post from the OP is not the type of post that will get people on your side!
    I suppose this is my of saying that posts such as the poster above, feed into all the stereotypes of hybrid/electric car owners, and will even annoy the neutrals. It does your cause more harm then good.

    People like me are more influenced by price and convenience when electric cars become cheaper than regular cars, and have the regular charging areas nationwide (for longer journeys) then I would consider them (fuel prices are not an issue for me).

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Mike9832


    Yea when the battery explodes beside it.

    Not before the BMW catches fire, the banger


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,976 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Yea when the battery explodes beside it.

    The 335d/535d are not without their issues too.
    EGR, DPF, timing chain, turbo issues.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Mike9832 wrote: »
    Not before the BMW catches fire, the banger

    YouTube is littered with Tesla fireballs. Crush an old iPhone and watch what happens to a lithium battery in a smash.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    kceire wrote: »
    The 335d/535d are not without their issues too.
    EGR, DPF, timing chain, turbo issues.

    Timing chain is a non issue in 3.0L's and well you know it.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭The Enbalmer


    I think the EV faithful are trying to convince themselves as much as others.

    Still not one of them can answer how are people in apartments going to charge thier car,or people with no driveways?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Mike9832


    YouTube is littered with Tesla fireballs. Crush an old iPhone and watch what happens to a lithium battery in a smash.

    Tesla have an excuse

    What's BMW's?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6761995/BMW-death-traps-250-000-cars-Britain-risk-bursting-flames.html


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Mike9832 wrote: »
    Tesla have an excuse

    They have an excuse for turning people into burnt toast.

    As for BMW at least they have somewhere to recall them, what you gonna do with the Tesla, stick a stamp on it and send it back to the Wendy house in the desert.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭Phibsboro


    I've said this elsewhere on this forum, but I think there will be a tipping point and it will come sooner than is generally thought. People follow the herd for the most part and once a certain percentage of the populace are going electric then a large middle core will quite quickly move in that direction. Why will it happen quicker than might be thought? Because once people sense that tipping point approaching they will be trying to estimate how far into the future it will happen - if they get it wrong and buy a new ICE too close to the tipping point then they are looking at a much reduced resale value as the market tips over to EV. And so we will see a cliff drop in demand for new ICE as people move to EV or hold onto their ICE for a year or two longer before then moving to EV. The only resale value for ICE will be classic cars. If the VW ID roll out in 2020 is successful you could see ICE sales decimated within 3 years from then.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Such a quick shock to the world economy could do a lot of damage. It has to happen slowly. You can be full sure as our fuel costs drop our carbon taxes go up.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭The Enbalmer


    Mike9832 wrote:
    Tesla have an excuse

    Ah well that's okay..let's all drive around in a giant chemical battery


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,891 ✭✭✭prinzeugen


    YouTube is littered with Tesla fireballs. Crush an old iPhone and watch what happens to a lithium battery in a smash.

    And there is the wee issue of lithium production.

    There was some article I read that Tesla would need to acquire every gram of worldwide lithium production (at current rates) for the next 20 years just to meet its targets.

    Then you have the problem of regular power cuts. It might be more than a coincidence that the number of power outages where I live has increased since every second person bought a EV.

    Averaged 1-2 per year. Now its 1-2 per month, all midweek around 6-7pm. The infrastructure cannot handle the power draw.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Mike9832


    Ah well that's okay..let's all drive around in a giant chemical battery

    You won't have a choice


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,605 ✭✭✭gctest50



    When your digging lithium out of the ground with diesel power it's always going to make a few people giggle when you start talking like a hippy:pac:


    This was powered by electricity :

    27,000hp hoist, 62,000hp total

    unless you're on about little toy diesel excavators





  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,976 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Timing chain is a non issue in 3.0L's and well you know it.

    There’s an X5 in with Valdas in Motor Confidence that proves otherwise. It’s an SD version. Same 35d engine.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    n97 mini wrote:
    My own observation if there's a rural/urban divide. I've several rural based friends who are firmly wedded to diesel, usually SUVs, and have no intention of changing. The reasons vary from wanting to be seen in a big car (Model X is too expensive!) to not being able to get out of their driveways in bad weather because of a lack of four wheel drive.
    n97 mini wrote:
    Urban on the other hand, several friends already already have EVs, with others considering it. Those who aren't, again it usually comes down to what they're seen in, though with a few it's financial.

    Yes. And in all fairness folks, if I want to generalise, Ireland is very much a rural country overall with the respective rural mentality, which I find rather conservative. I think it will take a lot of time to change the rural inhabitants' mentality for them to transition despite the fact that all of them have the advantage of being able to install home chargers unlike many urban people.

    The only place where you can talk about "urban" way of thinking is greater Dublin and perhaps Cork City. So that's barely 50% of the population. And in Dublin as the public transport improves, I would say not everyone needs to have a car so we are down to maybe 30-40% of the population. And of those it would be the well off people and people living in houses who could actually afford an EV and be able to charge it at home. So let's say we are down to 20% of the population, at most, subtract retirees and children. This is your target group which will need to drive the EV uptake now.

    This urban group should be primarily targeted by the government policies right now because its easier to convince progressive urban people than to change mentality of rural conservative communities IMHO. The rural communities can be targeted later on.

    For urban areas on street charging (lamp posts, car parks, shops) is urgently needed, the government need to increase funding and potentially open the market to private players. Also, government should increase financial subsides if they mean their carbon reduction targets seriously (VRT exemption, VAT discount, road tax exemption, toll exemption), this will attract those urban people who are reluctant due to financial reasons. Plus local authorities should step up as well - free parking for all EVs, ability to use bus lanes etc. Basically copy Norwegian policies and it will work.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    n97 mini wrote:
    A petrol head advocating diesel! I can understand the attraction to the roar of a big petrol V8 or a high revving V10, but not the rattle and dirt of a diesel...

    Once you drive an EV.... And then sit back in diesel which is bloody noisy, shaking and vibrating your árse, sorry no more! And don't get me started on the carcinogenic shíte that the diesel engine spouts and poisons you, everyone around including children. Yeah filters and all that - still bollocks, it's a poison. And it stinks of course. I'm not so much against petrol but it's still dirty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    99nsr125 wrote:
    If you're looking for an easy renewable transition, methane, we can make it, refuel quickly and it burns as clean as can be
    I.e. LPG or CNG. Much better than hydrogen fuel cells which are of course economical and physical nonsense (3 times less efficient than BEV plus huge technological issues with hydrogen storage).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,631 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    samih wrote: »
    Having been here at the Electric Vehicles & Hybrids for quite some time I have seen the classic progress of opinions regarding a disruptive technology action.

    1. First they ignore you
    2. Then the riducule you

    3. Then they fight you
    4. Then you win

    We appear to have entered the phase 3 quite firmly by now. The phase 1 was conquered when Mad_lad did sterling effort and finally got the mods to branch this forum from the main Motors back in about 2013.

    The phase two was quite a long one and even now in 2019 there are odd snide remarks about the gen 1 LEAF. But even on the main forums we are entered well into the phase 3 now, while many have, at least in principle, admitted that future is bright and almost exclusively better post ICE for daily driving.

    So when will the general car driving population realise the advantages of the BEVs and wonder why it took them so long to convert from being a fossil. I'm personally guessing it won't happen until 2020-21. And if availability is there not many will continue to buy a new ICE as their main mode of transport post 2023. So I predict we'll reach Norway like car buying stats by 2023 even without extra CO2 taxes.

    Silly points. No one is fighting any battles here or anywhere.
    EVs were once ignored because they were by and large shite for the early years they were on the market here. The leaf, with its limited range and looks only a mother could love was the poster child of the EV for the guts of 5 years.

    Its not that people are doing a volte-face and are coming around to the technology. People would still think the EV was rubbish if development peaked with the Leaf 30. Its the technology thats improving is the reason more people are looking in the direction of the EV. Its still a very small percentage, least we forget.

    As any technology improves and matures, more and more people will transfer over as long as the positives outweigh the drawbacks. The balancing act the government will have to deliver on is increasing taxes on EVs so that the cost per km is comparable to that of diesel now, whilst still maintaining incentives for transition and also not harming the economy in the process.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,450 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    McGiver wrote: »
    Yes. And in all fairness folks, if I want to generalise, Ireland is very much a rural country overall with the respective rural mentality, which I find rather conservative. I think it will take a lot of time to change the rural inhabitants' mentality for them to transition despite the fact that all of them have the advantage of being able to install home chargers unlike many urban people.

    The only place where you can talk about "urban" way of thinking is greater Dublin and perhaps Cork City. So that's barely 50% of the population. And in Dublin as the public transport improves, I would say not everyone needs to have a car so we are down to maybe 30-40% of the population. And of those it would be the well off people and people living in houses who could actually afford an EV and be able to charge it at home. So let's say we are down to 20% of the population, at most, subtract retirees and children. This is your target group which will need to drive the EV uptake now.

    This urban group should be primarily targeted by the government policies right now because its easier to convince progressive urban people than to change mentality of rural conservative communities IMHO. The rural communities can be targeted later on.

    For urban areas on street charging (lamp posts, car parks, shops) is urgently needed, the government need to increase funding and potentially open the market to private players. Also, government should increase financial subsides if they mean their carbon reduction targets seriously (VRT exemption, VAT discount, road tax exemption, toll exemption), this will attract those urban people who are reluctant due to financial reasons. Plus local authorities should step up as well - free parking for all EVs, ability to use bus lanes etc. Basically copy Norwegian policies and it will work.

    Progressive Urban People!!!

    The Jackeens? Pull the other one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,464 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Rural dweller here.

    I'd love an EV as the second car in the house to replace my 1.1L Skoda.

    I have a 10mile round trip commute it would be brilliant.

    But right now it's too expensive to buy, and no good when I need it on the long journeys I have to take every so often.

    Until the day comes that I can buy a 5-8 year old used one for a few grand in today's money and can pull over and fully charge it in less the 5 mins anywhere then it's not for me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭The Bishop Basher


    n97 mini wrote: »
    Seriously, the only reason anyone would drive a diesel is the chape tax.

    No it's not. There are many reasons why people drive diesels. Tax is potentially one of them. Gets really tiring though when the anti diesel sheep on boards keep throwing this crap out complete with using the word "chape" for extra giggles - not.
    n97 mini wrote: »
    As regards the driving experience, I've yet to drive one that doesn't feel, eh, agricultural.

    You've been driving **** diesels then.


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