When will the general public reach the stage 4 of denial?

n97 mini

Mickeroo wrote: »

The did a bit about how ready the country is for EVs on newstalk today at lunchtime, one of the Healy-Raes even got in on the action: https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/highlights-from-lunchtime-live/equipped-electric-cars-yet

There's a a few fair points made about infrastructure, variety and price of cars available as well as plenty of stuff that will have folks here rolling their eyes no doubt

I listened to that, it was terrible ****e.

Healy Rae: "One manufacturer, I won't name names, gives a 7 year warranty on the car but only a 2 or 3 year warranty on the battery, and that's where all the problems are".

While there was the predictable bleating on about lack of FCPs, the point was never mentioned that bigger batteries will mitigate against that to an extent. In 5 years time there probably won't be too many 24kwh Leafs in proportion to the overall fleet.

Mickeroo

Yeah I text in after I heard that about the warranties pointing out it was misinformation at best and cited Hyundai's 8 year battery warranty on top of the 5 year car warranty but they never read it out of course.

Mickeroo

Just remembered, tonight's Eco Eye on RTE is about EVs apparently.

Idbatterim

VW Increases Electric Vehicle Target by 50%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-12/vw-s-audi-porsche-margins-sag-in-costly-shift-to-electric-era

Sale of fossil fuel should he banned or taxed highly post 2025 in my opinion. The quicker petrol and diesel cars are given a death sentence , the quicker ev innovation will progress ...

OldMrBrennan83

Idbatterim wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-12/vw-s-audi-porsche-margins-sag-in-costly-shift-to-electric-era

Sale of fossil fuel should he banned or taxed highly post 2025 in my opinion. The quicker petrol and diesel cars are given a death sentence , the quicker ev innovation will progress ...

On the other hand though, they can't go away until electric cars are fit for purpose. Regression shouldn't be an option.

Idbatterim

OldMrBrennan83 wrote: »

On the other hand though, they can't go away until electric cars are fit for purpose. Regression shouldn't be an option.

They will be falling over themselves now to provide the cross overs and all of the mass market stuff ...

OldMrBrennan83

Idbatterim wrote: »

They will be falling over themselves now to provide the cross overs and all of the mass market stuff ...

Whatever they do, range has to be #1. 'Refuelling' speed a close #2.

Mickeroo

Mickeroo wrote: »

The did a bit about how ready the country is for EVs on newstalk today at lunchtime, one of the Healy-Raes even got in on the action: https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/highlights-from-lunchtime-live/equipped-electric-cars-yet

There's a a few fair points made about infrastructure, variety and price of cars available as well as plenty of stuff that will have folks here rolling their eyes no doubt

Just listened to the start of the podcast and the talk of scrappage is madness, why destroy modern cars that have many years of life left, what they should be doing is creating a market where it is viable to "deICE" recent models and convert to electric. Many of the modern "crossover" style of vehicles are perfect for conversion as they have an elevated floor thus well suited for fitting battery packs which will provide the range that car buyers demand.

Idbatterim

OldMrBrennan83 wrote: »

Whatever they do, range has to be #1. 'Refuelling' speed a close #2.

If you look at Tesla. The new speeds are ridiculous... the 35k dollar Tesla arrived. Insanely rapid charging... it’s jist a matter of how many billion are thrown at r and d and how much the market and regulators demand / force change

Idbatterim

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Just listened to the start of the podcast and the talk of scrappage is madness, why destroy modern cars that have many years of life left, what they should be doing is creating a market where it is viable to "deICE" recent models and convert to electric. Many of the modern "crossover" style of vehicles are perfect for conversion as they have an elevated floor thus well suited for fitting battery packs which will provide the range that car buyers demand.

Yeah that does sound like madness. I do think though that even needs to be done to encourage ev sales. IncreAse motor tax on new ice sales significantly enough. Most cars are on direct cheap rates, e280 or below, they should double the rates up to and including the e280 rate

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

Yeah that does sound like madness. I do think though that even needs to be done to encourage ev sales. IncreAse motor tax on ice...

That will probably happen for a while, then they'll up the taxes on EVs to recover the shortfall. I also see the deICEng of cars providing a good bit of employment and revenue for a decade or so during the transition period.

Idbatterim

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That will probably happen for a while, then they'll up the taxes on EVs to recover the shortfall. I also see the deICEng of cars providing a good bit of employment and revenue for a decade or so during the transition period.

I would love to know what the motorists generate for The exchequer for the past say ten years on an annual basis. For example, I know income taxes have gone from 12 to nearly 20 billion over the last decade or so. They simply can’t whack up cost of diesel or petrol to any great extent, as it would be political suicide. I think the shortfalls will just be made up from general taxation.

I think the whole year on the reg plate is a farce. Except if you start getting people to change into ev, it offers some advantage. Otherwise it’s pretty much all downsides except to the motoring trade!

Old diesel

n97 mini wrote: »

I listened to that, it was terrible ****e.

Healy Rae: "One manufacturer, I won't name names, gives a 7 year warranty on the car but only a 2 or 3 year warranty on the battery, and that's where all the problems are".

While there was the predictable bleating on about lack of FCPs, the point was never mentioned that bigger batteries will mitigate against that to an extent. In 5 years time there probably won't be too many 24kwh Leafs in proportion to the overall fleet.

Right then seems the battery warranty on an eNiro is the exact same 7 year warranty as the rest of the car.

Can't think of any other maker that produces EVs but also has a 7 year warranty as it's standard on all cars including petrol station and diesel.

Frustrating

McGiver

n97 mini wrote:

While there was the predictable bleating on about lack of FCPs, the point was never mentioned that bigger batteries will mitigate against that to an extent. In 5 years time there probably won't be too many 24kwh Leafs in proportion to the overall fleet.

There will be quite a few 24kW leafs and 1st gen EVs where it suits. Perfect as a city car or short commuter or a second car. It's the same like Yaris is perfectly fine where (and to be whom) it suits and you still see Yaris around. Also, the price will be a factor - old Leaf for 7k vs VW ID for 30k. If you won't have money and don't need the range why would you pay 4 times more?

AndrewJRenko

Idbatterim wrote: »

I would love to know what the motorists generate for The exchequer for the past say ten years on an annual basis.

Make sure you look at the cost side of the account too - what motorists cost the Exchequer too. Start with:

• costs of the healthcare due to emissions
• costs of healthcare do to obesity, hypertension, diabetes, cancer all caused by sedentary lifestyles
• costs of the roads infrastructure
• costs of the regulatory and enforcement infrastructure (vast amounts of Courts, Gardai, entire cost of Road Safety Authority, significant amount of legislature)
• cost of the vast amounts of public space given over to motorists
• costs of road and motorway building and maintenance

See how you get on with those costs and we'll see how motorists are doing for the Exchequer.

The Enbalmer

AndrewJRenko wrote:

costs of the healthcare due to emissions costs of healthcare do to obesity, hypertension, diabetes, cancer all caused by sedentary lifestyles costs of the roads infrastructure costs of the regulatory and enforcement infrastructure (vast amounts of Courts, Gardai, entire cost of Road Safety Authority, significant amount of legislature) cost of the vast amounts of public space given over to motorists costs of road and motorway building and maintenance

Lol. So you're saying people should cycle from Dublin to Cork? Or goods vehicles should be pedal powered?

AndrewJRenko

The Enbalmer wrote: »

So you're saying people should cycle from Dublin to Cork?

Eh no, or to use your own terminology, lol. If I want to say that people should cycle from Dublin to Cork, I'll say something like "People should cycle from Dublin to Cork". I didn't say anything like "People should cycle from Dublin to Cork" so that's not what I'm saying.

The Enbalmer wrote: »

Or goods vehicles should be pedal powered?

Certainly seems to work well is SOME sectors and SOME services. Just to avoid any doubt, No, I'm not saying that "All HGV deliveries can be done by bike".



https://www.fastcompany.com/40501245/this-bike-trailer-can-deliver-as-much-cargo-as-a-minivan

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2018/11/07/data-from-millions-of-smartphone-journeys-proves-cyclists-faster-in-cities-than-cars-and-motorbikes/#3111b98b3794

https://irishcycle.com/2017/03/06/ups-to-make-deliveries-by-cargo-bicycle-in-dublin-city-centre/
https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3023910/city-of-london-launches-cargo-bike-deliveries-to-slash-air-pollution
https://road.cc/content/news/232818-ups-trial-bikes-e-trailers-central-london-deliveries-video

One thing I've noticed that is common to all new designs of EV is that they all use the "skateboard" platform, which is in fact a reversion to the old ways of making vehicles.
Up until the middle of the 20th century, it was common for cars to be made in two separate parts, one was a chassis that went the full length of the vehicle which carried the suspension and engine, transmission etc, then the body was fitted on top. Now All ICE vehicles use an integratel structural body and subframes to carry the engine & suspension.

If the EV manufacturers used basic metal preservation techniques on the skateboard (such as galvanising or using aluminium with a suitable protective coating) , they could easily produce vehicles that could last 30 years plus without failing an NCT on structural rust. The bodies are mostly a composite material so shouldn't deteriorate much either.

Here's hoping the cars of the future have a good and long useful working life, would be great for the environment if this is the future of motoring.

However, I fear that they'll limit their useful life to sell more cars in the future.

unkel

Deleted User wrote: »

Now All ICE vehicles use an integratel structural body

Yes, a monocoque. Integral to the safety of modern cars. You're not seriously suggesting we should go back to a ladderframe chassis and bolted on body like a bloody 1940s desgined Land Rover?

Old diesel

The Enbalmer wrote: »

Lol. So you're saying people should cycle from Dublin to Cork? Or goods vehicles should be pedal powered?

He is saying there are costs to how we do things now.

But part of the answer of Cork to Dublin long term is actually very good public transport offerings.

You need to consider things like whether 53 people on a coach is better for emissions vs all 53 people been in a car.

A good modern coach could do 12 mpg - using 13.3 gallons.

If 53 people all individually use 64 mpg car it would add up to 132 gallons.

Edit - based on a 160 mile journey

The more fuel you use also increases your emissions..

unkel

unkel wrote: »

Yes, a monocoque. Integral to the safety of modern cars. You're not seriously suggesting we should go back to a ladderframe chassis and bolted on body like a bloody 1940s desgined Land Rover?

Have you ever looked at the construction process of a modern EV?

Edit:

Here is the construction process of a BMW i3 EV starting at the assembly of the chassis/skateboard.

https://youtu.be/cGtMBB2nZi8?t=440

And here is the new Rivian chassis.



second edit: interesting pdf discussing the differing strategies being employed by EV manufacturers in the future http://www.umtri.umich.edu/sites/default/files/Sergio.Muniz_.UMTRI_.PTS21.2016.pdf

n97 mini

McGiver wrote: »

There will be quite a few 24kW leafs and 1st gen EVs where it suits. Perfect as a city car or short commuter or a second car. It's the same like Yaris is perfectly fine where (and to be whom) it suits and you still see Yaris around. Also, the price will be a factor - old Leaf for 7k vs VW ID for 30k. If you won't have money and don't need the range why would you pay 4 times more?

I said as a proportion. The Leaf 24 hasn't been made for a few years now. Every car since has a bigger battery, and that trend will continue.

Ireland is a small island. A Kona can drive from Dublin to Cork and back without stopping. And that's only really the beginning. Right now I wouldn't be putting my money into FCPs in Ireland.

unkel

n97 mini wrote: »

A Kona can drive from Dublin to Cork and back without stopping.

With your efficient driving skills, you're probably the only person in this country that could do that, and you wouldn't be exceeding 80km/h :pac:

JPA

unkel wrote: »

With your efficient driving skills, you're probably the only person in this country that could do that, and you wouldn't be exceeding 80km/h :pac:

Ya, not in a million years!

n97 mini

unkel wrote: »

With your efficient driving skills, you're probably the only person in this country that could do that, and you wouldn't be exceeding 80km/h :pac:

415km WLTP range. 188km from Co Dublin to Co Cork. I think even you could manage that round trip!

But seriously though, if you're going to drive to Cork city, you're not going to turn straight around again and drive back. Plug in for an hour or two to an SCP and you're covered like.

unkel

n97 mini wrote: »

415km WLTP range. 188km from Co Dublin to Co Cork.

You've just moved the goal posts from their normal 7.42m apart to just 5.51m

Last time I checked, Dublin to Cork was 253km

WLTP is 99% low speed, only 1% at motorway speeds. Even the most aerodynamic EV out there will not get anywhere near its WLTP range driven at 120km/h even in perfect circumstances...

lalababa

ELM327 wrote: »

Agreed. I saw the John Deere prototype and laughed. 4 hours runtime? A farmer would probably need three of them to replace the current yoke sure. Pointless. No farmer works for 4 hours a day. They'd be out of business pretty quick!

A 4hr run time would be plenty for lots of farmers. Most farms big and small contract out big jobs such as silage and slurry. Alot of farms have two tractors as well ... so one ice one EV.

McGiver

n97 mini wrote:

I said as a proportion. The Leaf 24 hasn't been made for a few years now. Every car since has a bigger battery, and that trend will continue.

OK, but I still maintain second/third hand market with 1st gen EV cars will be keep going and we will see the cars around. They won't disappear.

Yes, battery capacity has been increasing rapidly, but it has reached a technological limit at this point and we don't see that rapid capacity growth in 2019. I think the consensus is that the capacity will stabilise at 60 kW or so, at least for the medium end cars/models.

n97 mini wrote:

Ireland is a small island. A Kona can drive from Dublin to Cork and back without stopping. And that's only really the beginning. Right now I wouldn't be putting my money into FCPs in Ireland.

Absolutely, Ireland is very well suited for EVs in European context. But mentality is an issue (clearly overall on the conservative side), plus Irish Gov has a very poor track record with regards to infrastructure projects and overall strategy, which is another risk/downside in RoI's case.

I would argue that 50kW cars are sufficient for vast majority of people in Ireland. You simply don't need more daily capacity unless you are sales rep or delivery person travelling the court up and down every day.

I wouldn't put much money on FCPs but I would certainly put my money on high density SCPs in urban areas (Ubitricity in lamp posts, car parks), because this is the way the Netherlands got littered with SCPs. They have around 45k of them, compare to Irish 1k, even when adjusted for population its still 15 times more.

AndrewJRenko

Perhaps there will be greater acceptance from the general public if we broaden our ideas of what constitutes 'electronic vehicles'? Why are we subsidising the current generation of EVs but not eBikes?


https://twitter.com/autofac/status/1107308299022671872

lafors

DrPhilG wrote: »

Almost everyone I speak to these days admits that the future is electric and accepts that some day they will have to change.

Most are actually quite open to the change once it becomes more affordable.

Exactly, anyway why is it a fight? Just do what I do, have my Ioniq and have my 4.4l V8 sitting beside it for the weekends! Best of both worlds :pac::pac:

Zubeneschamali

lafors wrote: »

Exactly, anyway why is it a fight?

It's not a fight - most people don't care and will buy electric cars when they are better than ICE cars for the money.

The Enbalmer

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It's not a fight - most people don't care and will buy electric cars when they are better than ICE cars for the money.

Which they won't be for the forseeable future...if ever!



As nobody can address the issue of charging without a garden i won't even mention it.

Squatter

The Enbalmer wrote: »

As nobody can address the issue of charging without a garden i won't even mention it.

Meh, you just lug the car battery into the house and charge it in your hallway. No big deal!

The Enbalmer

Squatter wrote: »

Meh, you just lug the car battery into the house and charge it in your hallway. No big deal!

No..no..some as-yet-unknown-agency is going to rig up streetlamps so you can power your battery car off of that


All gonna be ready by next year!

ELM327

Old diesel wrote: »

He is saying there are costs to how we do things now.

But part of the answer of Cork to Dublin long term is actually very good public transport offerings.

You need to consider things like whether 53 people on a coach is better for emissions vs all 53 people been in a car.

A good modern coach could do 12 mpg - using 13.3 gallons.

If 53 people all individually use 64 mpg car it would add up to 132 gallons.

Edit - based on a 160 mile journey

The more fuel you use also increases your emissions..

But if you consider a standard bus load factor is nowhere near 100% it skews the figures back to reality. I'd say over a full day the average load factor is below 50%. And of those, the majority are on free travel passes so wouldnt be driving anyway.

Zenith74

The Enbalmer wrote: »

No..no..some as-yet-unknown-agency is going to rig up streetlamps so you can power your battery car off of that

This has already been done at scale in the likes of Holland, and particularly cold places like Canada have block-heater sockets at every parking spot. This is a solved problem and while it hasn’t been decided who will do it, it’s not unknowable, it could easily be the Public Lighting divisions of Councils in some form of PPP, could be eCars, could be a purely private company.

You can certainly argue it won’t be done by next year, but to imply it cannot be done or we don’t know how it would be done is simply incorrect.

Gumbo

Zenith74 wrote: »

This has already been done at scale in the likes of Holland, and particularly cold places like Canada have block-heater sockets at every parking spot. This is a solved problem and while it hasn’t been decided who will do it, it’s not unknowable, it could easily be the Public Lighting divisions of Councils in some form of PPP, could be eCars, could be a purely private company.

You can certainly argue it won’t be done by next year, but to imply it cannot be done or we don’t know how it would be done is simply incorrect.

Added to the fact that it is already in a trial period with DLRCC and Fingal County Council.

ethernet

The Enbalmer wrote: »

No..no..some as-yet-unknown-agency is going to rig up streetlamps so you can power your battery car off of that


All gonna be ready by next year!

I know you're scoffing at this but it's already happening - especially in London: https://www.ubitricity.co.uk/

Johnnyhpipe

I dont think there’s any denial. I’d buy one - but won’t until there’s more charge points and a nissan leaf doesn’t cost the same as a new 3 series!

Gumbo

Johnnyhpipe wrote: »

I’d buy one - but won’t until there’s more charge points !

But you shouldn't need the charge points for your daily use.
If the range of a car now, doesn't suit your daily needs then you shouldn't by an EV.

But, you shouldn't buy an EV based on charge points as these will be more expensive than charging at home. You should be driving, then charging over night at home.

The Enbalmer

ethernet wrote: »

I know you're scoffing at this but it's already happening - especially in London: https://www.ubitricity.co.uk/

This isn't London.


If you think irish local authorities have the time or money for this sort of nonsense you're mistaken.


The only way this can happen is with private-sector investment and there arent many companies investing in battery car "technology".


There is parking for 200+ cars where i work and there were 2 EV charge points which have since been removed because nobody was using them.

ethernet

The Enbalmer wrote: »

This isn't London.


If you think irish local authorities have the time or money for this sort of nonsense you're mistaken.


The only way this can happen is with private-sector investment and there arent many companies investing in battery car "technology".


There is parking for 200+ cars where i work and there were 2 EV charge points which have since been removed because nobody was using them.

I know it isn't - just giving you an example of such a private sector investment. We already have a private EV charging company in the market here so I would expect to see this branch out into on-street solutions as EV adoption grows.

Nice anecdote. I'll give you a contrasting one. There's strong demand for chargers where I work - with people calling out nearby employers who already have charger. But it's just that, an anecdote. Sales figures tell the real story.

Gumbo

The Enbalmer wrote: »

This isn't London.


If you think irish local authorities have the time or money for this sort of nonsense you're mistaken.


The only way this can happen is with private-sector investment and there arent many companies investing in battery car "technology".


There is parking for 200+ cars where i work and there were 2 EV charge points which have since been removed because nobody was using them.

Why not look at the 2 trials currently going on in Swords and Dun Laoghaire, which wont suit your attitude, but I can guarantee you, are in Ireland.

Old diesel

ELM327 wrote: »

But if you consider a standard bus load factor is nowhere near 100% it skews the figures back to reality. I'd say over a full day the average load factor is below 50%. And of those, the majority are on free travel passes so wouldnt be driving anyway.

That's how it is now.

But the days of sitting into a diesel Passat by yourself for a trip from Cork to Dublin are unlikely to survive moves to more sustainability in the longer term.

In years to come driving the Passat from Cork to Dublin could actually be seen as unacceptable as smoking in publIc spaces.

Clearly public transport has to improve drastically.

ELM327

But what replaces it? Don't say public transport because we are a convenience based society and people pay for the convenience of having an idle car 99% of the time to have the convenience of on demand use.

Old diesel

ELM327 wrote: »

But what replaces it? Don't say public transport because we are a convenience based society and people pay for the convenience of having an idle car 99% of the time to have the convenience of on demand use.

Society is going to have to change to more sustainable models in order to address climate change.

The fact public transport is currently crap isn't to say that we can insist indefinitely that we can be entitled to drive up and down the motorway in a diesel with one occupant.

The Enbalmer

kceire wrote: »

Why not look at the 2 trials currently going on in Swords and Dun Laoghaire, which wont suit your attitude, but I can guarantee you, are in Ireland.

Trials,shmials..they will be deemed to be unworkable,expensive,useless or whatever and the plans will be shelved.


People here are talking about EVs being the future yet you can't charge the bloody things...they're going to fail!

Old diesel

If you are going to have personal transport Dublin to Cork in the future the likely way forward is that your 300 mile future EV will be used for the journey and you will have proper charging infrastructure to support your use of the vehicle.

I'm talking of the future as in say 10 years time - not next week.

Old diesel

The Enbalmer wrote: »

Trials,shmials..they will be deemed to be unworkable,expensive,useless or whatever and the plans will be shelved.


People here are talking about EVs being the future yet you can't charge the bloody things...they're going to fail!

The point is the technology to support EV use for drivers is ALREADY available AND evolving every year.

The technology ALREADY gives you the potential to do on street charging.

EVs are not perfect but they have a future.

ELM327

Old diesel wrote: »

Society is going to have to change to more sustainable models in order to address climate change.

The fact public transport is currently crap isn't to say that we can insist indefinitely that we can be entitled to drive up and down the motorway in a diesel with one occupant.

Personal mobility has been one of the great advances of society, from the 60's to now.
People will not step back from this, nor should they.
I don't think most people cares what powers their individual transport, moreso that it exists and that any mooted replacement should improve upon and not be worse than the current tech.