Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

LiamaDelta

Whilst this is true the buck stops with the manufacturer. Audits, checks and balances are supposed to keep the quality control up to agreed standards. The question rarely asked is how a supplier is able to do the work at price x. Where is the great saving being made. Time v cost v quality, you can usually only have two of those.

cnocbui

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Part was supplied by a external supplier, so the fault would be with them.

Also I believe the part had been replaced on a number of RA's NG's by now..

Boeing are supposed to monitor the quality. Watch this and see if you still think it's not Boeing's problem:

Tenzor07

cnocbui wrote: »

Watch this and see if you still think it's not Boeing's problem:

Seen that, been out a few years now, has come back to attention recently..

ChikiChiki

Just seen a Michael O'Leary interview on NBC from two weeks ago. He thinks the MAX will be recertified and back in the skies in June/July.

It really came across like he doesn't understand how serious the issue is. Don't think consumers will be queing up to get on the aircraft.

IngazZagni

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Just seen a Michael O'Leary interview on NBC from two weeks ago. He thinks the MAX will be recertified and back in the skies in June/July.

It really came across like he doesn't understand how serious the issue is. Don't think consumers will be queing up to get on the aircraft.

I think most of us are well aware of the nonsense that comes out of his mouth. He also claimed that all his pilots have been in the max simulator and loved it. I’ve been told that that simply isn’t true. Almost none of them have been in the max simulator.

Brennus335

ChikiChiki wrote: »

. Don't think consumers will be queing up to get on the aircraft.

99% of consumers don't have the faintest idea about what type of aircraft they're stepping on to, nor do they remotely care, as long as it's cheap.

All MAX branding will be removed from Ryanair PR, websites, safety cards etc. It'll just say 737 and people won't have a clue.

Graham

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Just seen a Michael O'Leary interview on NBC from two weeks ago. He thinks the MAX will be recertified and back in the skies in June/July.

It really came across like he doesn't understand how serious the issue is.

If you've spotted a potential opportunity to place a substantial 737 Max order at a very significant discount, it strikes me as a fairly sensible public position to take for MOL.

When viewing most Ryanair related news (P.R.) ask yourself how is this going to save or make the company money. That's likely to give you a better idea of the real message.

I wouldn't be surprised to see an announcement for a sizeable aircraft order from Ryanair as a show of faith in the aircraft around the time it's due back in service.

Bob24

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Just seen a Michael O'Leary interview on NBC from two weeks ago. He thinks the MAX will be recertified and back in the skies in June/July.

It really came across like he doesn't understand how serious the issue is. Don't think consumers will be queing up to get on the aircraft.

What the CEO of Ryanair tells its customers/investors on TV about a plane he has on order is probably very different from what he tells Boeing executives about the exact same plane which is full of problems. In one case he is speaking as a service provider planning to use the plane and in needs to reassure clients and investors, and in the other as a customer of the plane manufacturer who needs to make sure he’s getting what he’s paying for.

Neither is probably a true reflection of what he really thinks about the plane, and in both cases he probably just says what he things will give him the most leverage.

trellheim

Will it be a separate pilot certification for the MAX then ?

Brennus335

trellheim wrote: »

Will it be a separate pilot certification for the MAX then ?

No, same type rating as NG, with a revised differences course.

Blut2

Not a hope its back in the air in June. Even if the FAA want to clear it as quickly as possible the Europeans/Chinese won't be rushing it.

The speculation I've heard is end of summer, September-ish.

Inquitus

Blut2 wrote: »

Not a hope its back in the air in June. Even if the FAA want to clear it as quickly as possible the Europeans/Chinese won't be rushing it.

The speculation I've heard is end of summer, September-ish.

Emirates reckons it won't be back in the air outside the US until after Christmas.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-02/emirates-predicts-boeing-s-max-won-t-fly-until-after-christmas

murphaph

I'll be avoiding FR completely for at least a year if there's a chance me or my family could end up on a MAX. I don't want to be Boeing's guinea pig for this patch up job.

Henry Ford III

I reckon it'll be fine if/when it gets recertified.

GM228

Henry Ford III wrote: »

I reckon it'll be fine if/when it gets recertified.

"When" - yes, but is "if" even a potential?

Hotblack Desiato

The FAA thought it was fine when it was "certified" the last time.

People are justified to be wary. Europe won't be rubber-stamping this one, for sure.

Henry Ford III

GM228 wrote: »

"When" - yes, but is "if" even a potential?

If they can't sort the aircraft's performance to everybody's satisfaction absolutely.

In view of the history the scrutiny will be rather thorough I'm sure. They simply can't afford another systems led accident - that would ruin the 737 Max completely, and would also cause huge distrust of the certification system.

p.s. I wonder what sort of discounts Ryanair are now getting from Boeing?

Graham

Henry Ford III wrote: »

p.s. I wonder what sort of discounts Ryanair are now getting from Boeing?

Enormous.

For the 175 plane order in 2013, analysts estimated about 40-50% off list. At the time Ryanair suggested they paid 2005 prices as Boeing had given "certain price concessions".

XsApollo

Did I just see one of these fly out of Shannon?
Or have they fitted those winglets to some older 737’s?

Hotblack Desiato

Sunwing -800s have double winglets, not quite the same as the MAX ones.

Pic added:

Graham wrote: »

Enormous.

For the 175 plane order in 2013, analysts estimated about 40-50% off list. At the time Ryanair suggested they paid 2005 prices as Boeing had given "certain price concessions".

Were Boeing stuck for cash in 2013 or something?

XsApollo

I presume sunwings have orange or a similar colour

Edit : Looks like the one

GM228

I see SE-RTB was undertaking a Malaga-Stockholm ferry on the 11th, only to be denied entry to German airspace and subsequently diverting to Paris Vatry.

Denied entry due to being a MAX8, but surely all the permissions would have been arranged beforehand? Am I missing something, paperwork mess up perhaps?

john boye

Graham wrote: »

Enormous.

For the 175 plane order in 2013, analysts estimated about 40-50% off list. At the time Ryanair suggested they paid 2005 prices as Boeing had given "certain price concessions".

I'm actually a tad surprised that Ryanair haven't gone for a top-up order since the grounding. They could surely get a great price from Boeing who you'd assume would be very grateful for the show of confidence in the max.

Graham

I'd say they're biding their time. Boeing will want a big show of faith when the aircraft re-enters service.

Maybe not, I bet MOL is licking his chops thinking about it though.

Nice discount in lieu of compensation might appeal to Boeing too.

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Were Boeing stuck for cash in 2013 or something?

They were stuck for good news, think 787 battery issues and delivery delays, lines of unfinished wide bodies all over the place. Add in the fact Ryanair were playing Boeing off against both Airbus and COMAC. Add to that a couple of hundred planes for delivery over the next few years is pretty tasty.

Similarly in 2001 Boeing sales had plummeted to around 300 aircraft (post 9/11), Ryanair placed an order for 100 aircraft in 2002.

Ryanair has shown Boeing it will walk away from a deal if the terms aren't right.

It's pretty clever.

If Ryanair genuinely got around 50% off list, after 5.5 years of service the resale value has to be around the same as the acquisition cost. (That's the bit I haven't researched yet).

john boye

Graham wrote: »

I'd say they're biding their time. Boeing will want a big show of faith when the aircraft re-enters service.

Maybe not, I bet MOL is licking his chops thinking about it though.

Nice discount in lieu of compensation might appeal to Boeing too.

Paris Air Show is next week, watch this space perhaps...

Graham

That was my earlier guess too but now I'm not so sure. With no announced return to service date it might be a bit premature.

Of course it could all go the other way too, Ryanair already have something like 130 orders and 70 options so maybe there's currently no need for a large order. In which case I'd expect cancellation hints are coming out of Swords along with invitations to a friendly chat about compensation or 'enhancements' to pricing for currently ordered aircraft. If they go down this route, I'd expect to see announcements for a much smaller number of additional aircraft/options.

Graham

Ryanair intentions have already been clarified. I don't know how I missed this:

“We’re having a discussion with Boeing” about getting financial compensation for the delays, O’Leary said on “Squawk Box.” “I don’t need cash,” he added, saying he wants movement on pricing.

"The company blamed the Max grounding and delivery delays for its profit warning."

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/ryanair-ceo-wants-boeing-to-pay-for-737-max-delivery-delays.html

josip

When have Ryanair walked away from Boeing?
Have they ever purchased from another manufacturer?

Graham

In 2009 Ryanair walked away from talks with Boeing over what was looking like an order for 200 aircraft.

A couple of years later Ryanair announced some sort of development agreement with COMAC for a 737 competitor.

They've flirted with Airbus a few times but I suspect that's mostly part of a negotiating ploy with Boeing. Unless Airbus suddenly make Ryanair an offer they can't turn down.

josip

What other type do RyanAir use apart from 737?

Graham

None, all 737.

Inquitus

Graham wrote: »

None, all 737.

Aye Icelandair, Ryanair, Southwest airlines, and I am sure others, are all pretty much tied to the Max as they either exclusively operate 737's or intend to after getting rid of their older 757's. Puts them in a bit of a pickle.

Bob24

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye Icelandair, Ryanair, Southwest airlines, and I am sure others, are all pretty much tied to the Max as they either exclusively operate 737's or intend to after getting rid of their older 757's. Puts them in a bit of a pickle.

Yes ... having only one airplane type is obviously cheaper and easier to operate, but putting all you eggs in the same basket does come with a risk.

Graham

Ryanair have previously demonstrated they will cancel growth plans and return funds to shareholders rather than 'overpay' for aircraft. One of the advantages to such a young fleet is they're not under pressure to replace existing aircraft.

Given the cyclical nature of the airline industry they know it's just a case of biding their time until Boeing hit a sticky more receptive patch.

They are absolute masters at timing their orders to maximise value to Boeing.

Hotblack Desiato

Graham wrote: »

Add in the fact Ryanair were playing Boeing off against both Airbus and COMAC.

Airbus publicly told them to get stuffed though

Graham wrote: »

"The company blamed the Max grounding and delivery delays for its profit warning."

It's always somebody else's fault!

show me the money.1

Did Ryanair not buy new Airbus planes for Laudamotion?

Graham

They did indeed SMTM1.

It would be really interesting to discover if that decision was based on strategy or history.

Either way, I'd say it's given Boeing something to mull over.

Quin_Dub

FAA now saying it will be December before Max is cleared to fly

Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft, grounded since March after two fatal crashes in five months, should be back in the air by December, a top U.S. regulator said.

It’s not possible to give an exact date as work progresses on safety fixes to the aircraft, Ali Bahrami, the Federal Aviation Administration’s associate administrator for aviation safety, said in an interview Wednesday at a conference in Cologne, Germany.

While the FAA is “under a lot of pressure,” he said the Max will be returned to service “when we believe it will be safe,” following reviews of the design, flight testing and other checks. Bahrami was reluctant to provide a timeline, but asked whether the plane would resume service this year or next, he said remarks by Boeing Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg projecting a return by the end of 2019 sounded correct.

MJohnston

I'm sure the FAA are under intense political pressure. Given what has recently been in the media about Elaine Chao, the US department of transportation looks to be led by corruption and business interest. And there's this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airlines-trump/ties-between-boeing-and-trump-run-deep-idUSKBN1QT2MQ

Blut2

Wow. The FAA are definitely going to be giving an optimistic assessment too, and can't speak for Europe/China. So it will actually probably be well into 2020 before its cleared globally. Almost a year grounded...

josip

So why is the share price only down slightly on that news given that the 737 accounts for roughly 30% of Boeing's revenue?

troyzer

josip wrote: »

So why is the share price only down slightly on that news given that the 737 accounts for roughly 30% of Boeing's revenue?

Most of it is priced in already. The consensus seems to be that their drop was a bit too much considering they still own the largest share of an oligopoly and their only competitor is incapable of taking advantage.

Thirdfox

Slightly off topic but still related - is this what people were concerned about in relation to the dreamliner?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/15/boeing-dreamliner-b787-safety-fears

john boye

Thirdfox wrote: »

Slightly off topic but still related - is this what people were concerned about in relation to the dreamliner?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/15/boeing-dreamliner-b787-safety-fears

No but it's mentioned about halfway through the article. The bit about the grounding in 2013.

Panrich

Thirdfox wrote: »

Slightly off topic but still related - is this what people were concerned about in relation to the dreamliner?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/15/boeing-dreamliner-b787-safety-fears

There seems to be an unwillingness to address the issue raised there by either Boeing or the regulators and it smacks of we can’t ground another Boeing aircraft. It’s worrying to read that Boeing seem to be still pursuing policies that in the face of it are to speed up production as a priority.
Replacing quality control inspectors with ‘smart technology’ sounds off-key given recent events.

billie1b

Graham wrote: »

None, all 737.

Airbus also now, 18 A320’s and 3 A321’s, operated by Lauda, handled and owned by Ryanair

Graham

Was mentioned a few posts back billie1b. Are those aircraft all owned by Ryanair now and operated under the Ryanair AOC?

Either way, you're correct. Ryanair essentially now have a A320 sub-fleet.

billie1b

Graham wrote: »

Was mentioned a few posts back billie1b. Are those aircraft all owned by Ryanair now and operated under the Ryanair AOC?

Either way, you're correct. Ryanair essentially now have a A320 sub-fleet.

Yeah they are, they’re a subsidiary of Ryanair holdings, ran and owned by Ryanair, they will also be putting in further orders of the A320 family

GM228

I don't think that Lauda counts as a mixed Ryanair fleet, I mentioned it before:-

GM228 wrote: »

I don't think Lauda (as it's called now) counts as Ryanair running a mixed fleet, Lauda is still a separate airline with Ryanair Holdings as the parent company.

The Ryanair we know (as in the airline company Ryanair DAC) is not the parent company of Lauda, rather it's Ryanair Holdings (Ryanair PLC), who are also the holding company for Ryanair.

There is a difference between Ryanair DAC and Ryanair PLC, it is just like Aer Lingus and IAG, it would be akin to saying Aer Lingus operates Embraer aswell because BA have them which is also under IAG.

Ryanair and Lauda are two separate airlines operated by the same parent/holding company, no different to Aer Lingus, BA etc under IAG.

cnocbui

Lol!

On day one of the show, Boeing did not announce a single new order for any of its airplanes, while Airbus recorded orders and options for 123 planes, according to the aviation consulting firm IBA.iQ.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/17/boeing-records-zero-new-plane-orders-as-paris-air-show-starts-slow.html