Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

GM228

goingnowhere wrote: »

Airbus are getting a A320 line up and running in TLS

There is already an A320 line in Toulouse, or do you mean an additional FAL?

L1011

goingnowhere wrote: »

Not quite the MAX has a smaller trim wheel this requires a greater force for the same level of trim applied.

All said every 737 going back to the 737-100 has the same basic issue, it is a plane from the 1950's (707 with 2 engines...) which is still full of wires and pulleys. Full reversion is another barrel of laughs.

You would need to execute some 'interesting' moves to unload the aerodynamic forces, i.e push the wrong way, quickly turn the wheel which would then be fairly easy to turn, pull up and try again. You run out of altitude fairly quickly as the MAX crews found out.

I thought the trim wheel downsizing was done on the Classic -> NG upgrade, due to lack of space? I may be wrong there though.

Hotblack Desiato

banie01 wrote: »

Has the Ethiopian crash report been released in full?

No. There is a second interim report though. See the AvH link above.

banie01

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

No. There is a second interim report though. See the AvH link above.

Thanks for that H.D, will end up reading that tonight rather than the LRC report I need to know for my exams :pac:

trellheim

Can someone summarize the Max position at the moment re certification ?

Fritzbox

trellheim wrote: »

Can someone summarize the Max position at the moment re certification ?

The FAA reckon a re-certification flight might happen in the next few weeks, but might not happen until April.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max/boeing-737-max-certification-flight-could-come-within-a-few-weeks-faa-administrator-idUSKBN20S2SS

banie01

https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2020/03/20/nikki-haley-resigns-from-boeing-board-over-airlines-bailout/

Nikki Haley has resigned from Boeings board to voice her opposition to a planned bailout.

I've long said on here that US Govt moves toward buying legacy Boeing F-15 with upgrades were backdoor state support.
Now with Corona, the floodgates to funnel cash towards Boeing without fear of WTO retribution are open.

Boeing's stocks are tumbling after over a decade of artificial inflation via stock buyback programmes, corona is the red button that has exposed their precarious financial position and reliance on somewhat creative accounting practices.

It really is time IMO, for governments to focus on bailing out citizens rather than business.

Funnelling money to a company that is failing, rather than letting it fail and allowing "market forces" to actually control the market is very much at odds with what capitalism is (not that I'm a fan of that particular system)
But we have reached a point where failing multi-national companies are insulated from their failure by being "too big to fail"!

Bollox!
Let them crash and burn, and let their viable assets be taken over by other companies rather than reward piss poor management and systemic corporate failure.

Also of concern for Boeing's defence arm.
The USAF is seeking a contract with the US KAI-TA-50 licensee (Hillwood Aviation) for a training arrangement providing TA-50s to supplement a new style fighter pilot training programme.
Very much at odds with the original aim of the t-X programme as a single trainer for the USAF.
https://www.fliegerfaust.com/us-air-force--2645548355.html

Shedite27

They'll get a bailout, too big in America, Airbus getting help from the French too.

On the share price, worst month ever - down 60%

banie01

Shedite27 wrote: »

They'll get a bailout, too big in America, Airbus getting help from the French too.

On the share price, worst month ever - down 60%

oh I know they'll get the bailout, comparing theirs to EU/French/GB support of Airbus is a little disingenuous however.

Airbus and indeed all manufacturers, not just aviation are facing a massive liquidity crisis.
Airbus however haven't bet their company future on a failed and dangerous airframe, nor have they artificially pumped a share price for years.

Boeing have laid the foundation for their collapse slowly but ever so surely since the McDonnell takeover.
Corona is an exceptionally fortuitous coincidence for their survival.

Fritzbox

Shedite27 wrote: »

They'll get a bailout, too big in America, Airbus getting help from the French too.

On the share price, worst month ever - down 60%

Airbus had no aircraft sales at all for February - Boeing had no sales for January. The next few months are going to be pretty lean for both companies.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-orders/airbus-draws-a-blank-in-february-after-boeings-order-free-january-idUSKBN20S2HN

Both plane makers have seen times like this before - I'd imagine the 2008-2009 period must have been pretty bad for them - but they both pulled through.

GM228

Fritzbox wrote: »

Airbus had no aircraft sales at all for February - Boeing had no sales for January. The next few months are going to be pretty lean for both companies.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-orders/airbus-draws-a-blank-in-february-after-boeings-order-free-january-idUSKBN20S2HN

Both plane makers have seen times like this before - I'd imagine the 2008-2009 period must have been pretty bad for them - but they both pulled through.

Boeing had 18 orders for February. I'm guessing March will be 0 for all manufacturers, but what will be interesting to watch is not just orders (or lack of), but also cancellations.

Fritzbox

GM228 wrote: »

Boeing had 18 orders for February. I'm guessing March will be 0 for all manufacturers, but what will be interesting to watch is not just orders (or lack of), but also cancellations.

Boeing has had loads of cancellations for the MAX, around 80 if I recall.

GM228

Fritzbox wrote: »

Boeing has had loads of cancellations for the MAX, around 80 if I recall.

51 737s and 3 777s in 2019, and 41 737s, 1 777 and 4 787s in 2020 so far...

I'm guessing the 92 737s are all MAX problem related cancellations, the rest probably the usual annual cancellations for whatever reason, but going forward the current climate will no doubt see a massive increase of cancellations.

FFVII

The ancient computers in the Boeing 737 Max are holding up a fix

Hotblack Desiato

FFVII wrote: »

The ancient computers in the Boeing 737 Max are holding up a fix

A more powerful computer won't cut it. As I've posted before, Boeing's entire man-machine model of interaction is obsolete. A mess borne of 1950s thinking. They need to ditch it and go full fly by wire like Airbus did, well over 30 years ago now. The idea that your co-pilot can give him or her self a workout on the trim wheel if their 1950s autopilot goes wrong is a sick and sad joke. MCAS just amplified the craziness of what has been grandfathered into the 737. Mark my words, the 737-NG is going to end up in trouble before this is all over, and no international sasfety agency is going to take the FAA's word on trust again either.

That article demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the design goals of embedded systems, never mind avionics.

Inquitus

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

A more powerful computer won't cut it. As I've posted before, Boeing's entire man-machine model of interaction is obsolete. A mess borne of 1950s thinking. They need to ditch it and go full fly by wire like Airbus did, well over 30 years ago now. The idea that your co-pilot can give him or her self a workout on the trim wheel if their 1950s autopilot goes wrong is a sick and sad joke. MCAS just amplified the craziness of what has been grandfathered into the 737. Mark my words, the 737-NG is going to end up in trouble before this is all over, and no international sasfety agency is going to take the FAA's word on trust again either.

That article demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the design goals of embedded systems, never mind avionics.

Airbus use the same computers on most of their planes, as it is a proven and reliable tech, the difference is they use 7, not Boeings 2.

goingnowhere

Welcome to boiling frogs. Place a frog in water and slowly heat it frog doesn't notice until its cooked.

Same thing with the 737, change after change after change each incremental change small and appears to be ok, but the cumulative impact is what hurts.

You don't need a supercomputer to run an aircraft, the math is fairly simple, but what you do need is redundancy, so at least 2 out of 3 majority voting and also real-time processing, a soon as you start adding more features the processors run out of time and 'stuff' doesn't happen when it should.

Starting with only 2 computers the 737 is already nowhere near where it needs to be. This is well understood but complex really, first incident of this was Apollo 11 1201 alarm while landing, someone had left the docking radar on by accident and the computer got overloaded as it was not designed to support landing and the radar at the time time but the NASA and MIT people were smart and had task priorities so non essential stuff got abandoned.

The Airbus system has layers and layers of redundancy and you can in theory fly with just a single computer working (well you can fly with no computer with trim and rudder only...), and in that mode you have 'direct' mode so you don't have any of the FBW protections and adaptions, so its basically a 737 without a stick shaker and stall warning

Fritzbox

FFVII wrote: »

The ancient computers in the Boeing 737 Max are holding up a fix

That article doesn't seem to give any of its sources that might confirm the MAX design might have such an overload problem with its computers?

Anyway, the order cancellations have begun recently, probably more so over the Covid-19 pandemic than anything else though:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/03/boeing-737-max-airbus-avolon-cancel/#67b81b35fa37

Tenger

goingnowhere wrote: »

............first incident of this was Apollo 11 1201 alarm while landing, someone had left the docking radar on by accident and the computer got overloaded as it was not designed to support landing and the radar at the time time but the NASA and MIT people were smart and had task priorities so non essential stuff got abandoned. .........

As an aside I really enjoyed the "13 minutes to the moon" podcast

Damien360

Tenger wrote: »

As an aside I really enjoyed the "13 minutes to the moon" podcast

There is a new one dedicated to Apollo 13. Excellent series. If anyone is not heard then before, listen to the first series. It will make your jaw drop.

MJohnston

I presume you've all watched the Apollo 11 (2019) film? If not, I think it was added to Netflix recently, it's incredible. The landing sequence plays out basically in real time and the 1201 and 1202 alarms are hugely tense moments, even though you know that they landed safely.

Hotblack Desiato

Yeah saw that in the IFI, incredible.

cnocbui

The Chicago-based manufacturer on Tuesday posted 150 cancellations of its beleaguered 737 Max jets in March. Brazilian airline Gol canceled 34 of the narrow-body planes and leasing firm Avolon scrapped orders for 75 of them, a move it announced earlier this month. Net cancellations in the month totaled 119 thanks to 31 orders for wide-body passenger planes and military aircraft.

That brought net cancellations for the first three months of the year to 307 planes, a sharp turnaround for a company that just over a year ago was aiming to increase output of its planes to meet strong demand.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/boeing-customers-cancel-staggering-number-of-737-max-orders.html

As ye sow, so shall ye reap.

banie01

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/boeing-customers-cancel-staggering-number-of-737-max-orders.html

As ye sow, so shall ye reap.

The Covid-19 outbreak and its potential bailout funds are the luckiest stroke ever encountered by Boeing.
Without Covid, there is a very strong likelihood Boeing would already be seeking at least a further cash call and considering some form of divestment or asset protection for its core business.

A global pandemic and the shít kicked out of markets is keeping Boeing below the radar at the moment for a lot of financial commentators IMO.

FFVII

banie01 wrote: »

The Covid-19 outbreak and its potential bailout funds are the luckiest stroke ever encountered by Boeing.
Without Covid, there is a very strong likelihood Boeing would already be seeking at least a further cash call and considering some form of divestment or asset protection for its core business.

A global pandemic and the shít kicked out of markets is keeping Boeing below the radar at the moment for a lot of financial commentators IMO.

Pity.

Should be let go.

Fritzbox

FFVII wrote: »

Pity.

Should be let go.

They'll pull through. Too big to fail and all that.
When is pandemic is over (when...) the airline business will have to buy again - a big splurge even - creating a big demand for Airbus and Boeing products.
The international money markets are just going to love the plane builders again?

FFVII

Fritzbox wrote: »

They'll pull through. Too big to fail and all that.
When is pandemic is over (when...) the airline business will have to buy again - a big splurge even - creating a big demand for Airbus and Boeing products.
The international money markets are just going to love the plane builders again?

Never to big

Graham

banie01 wrote: »

The Covid-19 outbreak and its potential bailout funds are the luckiest stroke ever encountered by Boeing.

On the other hand, the Boeing s**t show has turned into a huge bonus for many an airline.

No nasty repayments, free parking, storage, maintenance and a good chance of cancelling without penalty if your finances have changed.

Tenzor07

banie01 wrote: »

The Covid-19 outbreak and its potential bailout funds are the luckiest stroke ever encountered by Boeing.
Without Covid, there is a very strong likelihood Boeing would already be seeking at least a further cash call and considering some form of divestment or asset protection for its core business.
A global pandemic and the shít kicked out of markets is keeping Boeing below the radar at the moment for a lot of financial commentators IMO.

Where do you get all this from?

The only bailout is one the U.S govt. would give so BA won't lay off staff, a measure which Boeing haven't said they won't. A cut in staff of 20% across the boards is still on the cards.

Boeing was moving along with getting the Max back in the air by mid-year, without the drop in oil prices or the virus that would have meant airlines having Max's operating in their fleets by September/October with thousands of seats available meaning an increase in profits for operators and the cash flowing in Boeing and it's suppliers again.. Ok AB have stole a march on them with the 320neo, but once the Max was back up and running things would balance themselves out again.

Now nobody knows for sure which way this virus will affect things, all that's sure it it will take years for things to recover.

Tenzor07

Graham wrote: »

On the other hand, the Boeing s**t show has turned into a huge bonus for many an airline.
No nasty repayments, free parking, storage, maintenance and a good chance of cancelling without penalty if your finances have changed.

Airlines are grounding fleets, laying off workers, retiring aircraft early, all nothing to do with Boeing....

john boye

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Airlines are grounding fleets, laying off workers, retiring aircraft early, all nothing to do with Boeing....

That's really not what he's saying.

Tenzor07

john boye wrote: »

That's really not what he's saying.

I don't see a huge bonus for anyone in this crisis so tell me what he's saying?

Graham

Tenzor07 wrote: »

I don't see a huge bonus for anyone in this crisis so tell me what he's saying?

I'm saying Boeing did the worlds airlines a massive favour by not delivering their new aircraft on schedule.

All risks/costs associated with those aircraft now lie with Boeing rather than the airlines they were intended for.

When airlines do start flying again it's a fairly safe bet many will be much slimmer than they are now. Some are likely to cancel planes on much better terms than usual.

Blut2

+1

I'd imagine there are quite a few airlines delighted to not be currently paying large costs for the storage of 737MAXs they otherwise would be in possession of. And who'll be even happier to not have those 737MAXs sitting around as expensive, unneeded, excess, capacity if the aviation market remains subdued for the rest of the year.

I wonder if we'll start seeing a lot more order cancellations roll in as the year goes on. Surely quite a few of the airlines must have break clauses in their contracts if the deliveries are more than a year delayed.

banie01

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Where do you get all this from?

From following the news and the financials.

Boeing requested $60bln in funds from the US govt prior to Covid-19 causing the shutdown.
That led to Nikki Halley's resignation.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/17/coronavirus-boeing-seeks-60-billion-in-aid-for-aerospace-sector.html

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/19/nikki-haley-boeing-resign-138086

They have also had public funding tacked onto the US bailout package for companies "vital to national security" amounting to $17 billion, 13 of which was expected to head to Boeing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/25/boeing-bailout-coronavirus/%3foutputType=amp

They have drawn down a further $13.4bln in commercial loans.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL1N2B41A8


Further to all that, prior to the US shutdown Trump himself signalled a govt bailout.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/17/business/boeing-bailout-trump/index.html

Tenzor07

banie01 wrote: »

From following the news and the financials.

Still not seeing the "Lucky stroke" for Boeing, they're not accepting any taxpayer money yet and don't want to.
Haley resigned to protect her image as she will want to run for election with the Republican party, staunchly capitalist, in the near future and can't be seen..

banie01

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Still not seeing the "Lucky stroke" for Boeing, they're not accepting any taxpayer money yet and don't want to.
Haley resigned to protect her image as she will want to run for election with the Republican party, staunchly capitalist, in the near future and can't be seen..

You seem to be taking a narrow view.
Boeing have not taken tax payer funds as of yet, of yet there is very important.

That does not detract from the fact that before any Federal Stimulus package was announced, they had lobbied for a $60bln package.

That request was based on their position pre-covid shutdown and the ensuing further costs that will accrue to them.

Now fast forward a couple of weeks, that request is still in play.
In addition to @$13bln of the $17bln of the stimulus funds already expected to be allocated to them as being of "National defence interest".

Saying Boeing have yet to accept tax-payer funds is disingenuous.
They requested $60bln, before any economic shítstorm hit.
They already have $13bln earmarked for them in a separate package.

Those funds are also completely separate to any job protection funds received as part of the federal job protection and furlough schemes.

On top of that they drew down $13.8bln in commercial money 2 weeks ago.

The lucky stroke for Boeing here, is that a corporation is benefitting hugely from both taxpayer funds as an injection at a yet to be determined cost (but based on the airlines deal no more than 30% payback) and as well as that further cash grants will be made on the basis of their strategic importance.

A private corporation that has accrued huge losses as a result of inept management and crisis.
A corporation that is realistically facing the prospect of axing their narrow body that they bet the company on.

Has found itself benefitting to the tune of tax-payers billions at near zero cost thanks to a coincidental global crisis that has left the federal government throwing money at them.

Boeing has made its bed, thanks to Corona it's going to be a far more comfortable one for them than it has any right to be.

Tenzor07

banie01 wrote: »

You seem to be taking a narrow view.

banie01 wrote: »

Bollox!
Let them crash and burn, and let their viable assets be taken over by other companies

That's a bit rich to say my views are narrow when yours are quite clearly focussed on Boeing's demise.

banie01

Tenzor07 wrote: »

That's a bit rich to say my views are narrow when yours are quite clearly focussed on Boeing's demise.

I'm more of the opinion that when a company cuts corners and prioritizes share buybacks and dividend generation over safety, and over a long history of engineering excellence.

That they face the consequences.
Happy to discuss the how's and whys, but can you see where Boeing have now had a rub of the green?

Graham

No shock to see MOL is hinting that new orders might be on the cards if the price is right.

banie01

Graham wrote: »

No shock to see MOL is hinting that new orders might be on the cards if the price is right.

Knowing the way MOL operates, he will even renegotiate existing prices and delivery slots whilst he's at it.

Credit to him, he is never one to miss maximizing return on a crisis.

Blut2

banie01 wrote: »

Knowing the way MOL operates, he will even renegotiate existing prices and delivery slots whilst he's at it.

Credit to him, he is never one to miss maximizing return on a crisis.

I don't think I'd ever want to spend even 30 minutes in his company, but credit where credits due hes been proven a very canny businessman again and again over the years.

Shedite27

I'm sure it won't be the last change, but the expected certification date of the Max is slipping back to Autumn
https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-737-max-faces-new-source-of-delaycoronavirus-11587726000

banie01

Boeing have pulled the plug on their tie upwith Embraer.
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2020/04/26/boeing-ends-deal-angering-brazilian-jet-maker-embraer/

An immediate balance sheet saving of $4.2bln however, Embraer will be taking this all the way IMO to try and force specific performance and at least reach themselves a favourable settlement.
This is IMO at least a stalling tactic from Boeing to push out payment of accrued liabilities for as long as possible to allow retention of cash for as long they can hold on to it.

Some interesting movement with the USAF looking to buy more F-15x and the Germans looking to buy @48 F-18E/F to allow ECM/Wild Weasle and nuclear strike to continue upon retirement of the Tornado.
It points to US pressure being applied to allies to buy 4.5gen as a cash flow towards Boeing.

Shedite27

banie01 wrote: »

Boeing have pulled the plug on their tie upwith Embraer.
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2020/04/26/boeing-ends-deal-angering-brazilian-jet-maker-embraer/

An immediate balance sheet saving of $4.2bln however, Embraer will be taking this all the way IMO to try and force specific performance and at least reach themselves a favourable settlement.
This is IMO at least a stalling tactic from Boeing to push out payment of accrued liabilities for as long as possible to allow retention of cash for as long they can hold on to it.

Looks fairly simple to to....
They were negotiating a price of $4.2bn.
Embraer is now worth $1bn
Why would Boeing pay $4.2bn for something that's worth $1bn

banie01

Shedite27 wrote: »

Looks fairly simple to....
They were negotiating a price of $4.2bn.
Embraer is now worth $1bn
Why would Boeing pay $4.2bn for something that's worth $1bn

It is far more complex than that, however. Embraer and Boeing have been cross-selling and supporting each other via joint venture for quite a while.

An agreement was in place, equity stakes agreed and now rather than even use pricing disparity as their excuse, Boeing has pulled the plug based on their assertion that Embraer has failed to meet contract requirements.

Due diligence and all prior regulatory work on this deal have been completed.
It's akin to signing the contract for a house purchase, and then refusing to draw down the mortgage.

john boye

It's all gone very quiet on that LOI from IAG for 200 737 max. I wonder if it will ever be firmed up now given how the market has collapsed and Willie Walsh not staying in IAG long-term.

Tenger

The assumption at the time was that this LoI was a ploy to pressure both Airbus and Boeing for discounted purchase price.

As in “hey Airbus, give us a good price on those A321NEOs or we might take these 200 aircraft from Boeing” or even
“hey, we would need a really good price for us to follow up this LoI with a firm order for B737MAX”

A LoI has virtually no legal standing.

john boye

Tenger wrote: »

The assumption at the time was that this LoI was a ploy to pressure both Airbus and Boeing for discounted purchase price.

As in “hey Airbus, give us a good price on those A321NEOs or we might take these 200 aircraft from Boeing” or even
“hey, we would need a really good price for us to follow up this LoI with a firm order for B737MAX”

A LoI has virtually no legal standing.

Yes I remember all that but I'm still surprised we've heard nothing else on it one way or the other.

banie01

The Seattle Times and it's aviation and business reporters have won a Pulitzer for their sterling and continuing work on the 737 Max and it's issues.

www.seattletimes.com/inside-the-times/seattle-times-wins-pulitzer-prize-for-boeing-737-max-coverage/%3famp=1