Next crash . .

handlemaster

When is the next crash coming ? I seen some comments pointing towards this on other threads.... we are 10 years into the recovery. For sure we will have a correction or down turn something in the future but its not easy to predict when that will happen. Prices do seem to have leveled in Dublin the reset of the country will follow.

bluelamp

I think a correction is already in motion in Dublin. Prices have declined very slightly the last couple of months according to the cso statistics.

I've noticed in particular, viewings in the second hand market are a lot quieter than they were late 2017 / early 2018.

Even in a recession we wouldn't have the same drop in house prices as last time. Lending has been so restricted, less investment properties purchased by individuals, we have an undersupply of housing vs oversupply.

There are also a lot of people waiting at the moment who don't see value in the market right now. They are ready to buy when things cool - this will prop up the market a bit in the event of a fall. The argument of "you won't get a mortgage in a crash" isn't true for a lot of people. Plenty of people with a decent deposit and a good job were still getting money in the recession.

If I was to guess, I would say 2019 will see a small overall reduction in prices, by how much is anyone's guess.

Creamy Goodness

July 19th 2021

Tow

May get a Brexit dump (if hard exit etc) , probably be short term much like that happen after in 9/11.

messy tessy

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

July 19th 2021

Morning or afternoon?

Gumbo

bluelamp wrote: »

There are also a lot of people waiting at the moment who don't see value in the market right now. They are ready to buy when things cool - this will prop up the market a bit in the event of a fall. The argument of "you won't get a mortgage in a crash" isn't true for a lot of people. Plenty of people with a decent deposit and a good job were still getting money in the recession.

The only problem with this, is that those that are waiting, may not get a mortgage if the banks decide to stop lending if a crash hits again.

Nobodysrobots

Realistically not in the next 5 years anyway. Supply shortage (plus a construction skills/trade worker shortage), increased cost of construction/land, country heading towards full employment, banks not over-leveraged on mortgage debt due to CB 3.5 salary income and deposit rules, increasing population, etc.

Open to debate on these issues, if anyone disagrees or has a counterargument.

Phileas Frog

Tuesday week

handlemaster

It will be interesting to see when it does happen the people that will sit it out and say the prices will drop further only to cry when they go back up

devlinio

There won't be a crash. There will probably be a 10-20% correction as supply increases, but there is no basis for a crash.

The extent of what happened 9 years ago is rare, and might not happen for other 30-40 years.

SSeanSS

devlinio wrote: »

There won't be a crash. There will probably be a 10-20% correction as supply increases, but there is no basis for a crash.

The extent of what happened 9 years ago is rare, and might not happen for other 30-40 years.

Wishful thinking here. I like your optimism but I think there will always be a next recession..

ELM327

July 19th

Same day as the Ice Age ended and marathon became snickers.

Truckermal

handlemaster wrote: »

When is the next crash coming ? I seen some comments pointing towards this on other threads.... we are 10 years into the recovery. For sure we will have a correction or down turn something in the future but its not easy to predict when that will happen. Prices do seem to have leveled in Dublin the reset of the country will follow.

How the hell are we 10 years into the recovery?

ELM327

Truckermal wrote: »

How the hell are we 10 years into the recovery?

In 2009 I spent most of the year on the dole. As did (not literally but probably not far off) half the country.


The true bottom was probably 2008 H2 to 2012. We're probably 4 years into a real recovery. At best.

devlinio

SSeanSS wrote: »

Wishful thinking here. I like your optimism but I think there will always be a next recession..

Yes, there will be a recession. But not a crash like was had a decade ago. That was extreme, and we won't witness sometime quite as and next time around

Sonny678

Every economist is predicting a recession very soon. We might be only revovered a few years but the world economy has been recovering since the start of the decade. And we are very much an open economy, if USA declines we declines.

Anyway the predictions by economists worldwide r a recession in next two to three years. It could happen this year in 2019. But allot of ecominists are saying autumn 2020. And they r saying a recession will happem no later then early 2021. So anytime in next 20 months and possibly around US presidental election in autumn 2020.

German economy is stalling and US economy has had about 8 years of growth, that cannot last forver. Recessions are certainties in economies. Look at the last 40 years. You had worldwide recession in 70s with oil crisis. Then u had another recession in 80s. Another recession around early 90s. Internet boom then bust and asian counteries economy recession in 90s also. Then u had years of growth in 00s with the crash in 08. So we have had about 9 years world growth. A recession is just around the corner. American stock market was booming lately again, shares are way overpriced not a great sign. So the question is not if a recession will happen but how bad. Will it be a normal ression or something similar to 08?.

The worrying thing is allot of the problems that were in 08 have not being delt with. Countries debt like US and China is massive. And many economist believe if we had another massive crash it could make 08 look like a blip. The threats to world econmy eg Brext of course , Trump's trade war with China .

A massive problem is Chinas debt. It is massive. If that became an issue well then 2008 would be a economic blip compared to China debt problem. 08 could be a once in a generation event. But the problems in the banks throughout the world are still an issue. So its hards to know what is around the corner. But one thing is certain a recesion is around the corner.

USA had many recessions since World war 2 .
US had recessions in 1948 , 1953 , early 1960s , 1970, 1973 , 1980 to 81, 1990 -91, 2001, 2008- 09.
So u can see it basically see a thread of recession nearly under every 10 years or so in USA. If u follow the above thread a US recession is either this year or next year.

USA had a recession
at the start of 1960s ,
at start of 1970s,
at start of the 1980s,
at start of 1990s,
at start of 00s
and end of 00s.
So recession in early 2020s after 8 or 9 years of growth is definitely on the cards if that thread continues.

And many US economist have already indicated the US economy is already showing signs of turning. US had had 47 recessions since Independence.

skallywag

A good question albeit impossible to answer.

A serious crash will most likely have it's roots and causes outside of what we in Ireland can influence, e.g. think Lehman in 2008. It will just depend then on how vulnerable we ourselves are at that particular time.

The global economic climate is very hazardous at the moment with an awful lot of uncertainty (e.g. consequences of Brexit, mid to long term influence on large trade deals out of the US, general movement back towards nationalism and self interest as opposed to collaboration, etc.) in play.

I certainly would not think that another crash is out of the question.

Pussyhands

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

Realistically not in the next 5 years anyway. Supply shortage (plus a construction skills/trade worker shortage), increased cost of construction/land, country heading towards full employment, banks not over-leveraged on mortgage debt due to CB 3.5 salary income and deposit rules, increasing population, etc.

Open to debate on these issues, if anyone disagrees or has a counterargument.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-1-month-jump-in-us-recession-risk-highest-since-1989-2019-3?r=US&IR=T

America sneezes...

Pussyhands

The worrying thing is that we recovered extremely quickly after the GFC. Interest rates were cut and they've remained cut since. It feels like we're on borrowed time to be honest.

You'd wonder how much the modern world has impacted on the economy though, everyone is connected in real time now. Things can't get out of hand before it's too late now you'd think.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Recovered extremely quickly? We are apparently in the middle of a housing crisis.

ELM327

Christine Faithful Ticker wrote: »

Recovered extremely quickly? We are apparently in the middle of a housing crisis.

There's no housing crisis, there's a mismanagement by the government - their interference caused the mess, with RPZ and rent allowance.

q85dw7osi4lebg

ELM327 wrote: »

There's no housing crisis, there's a mismanagement by the government - their interference caused the mess, with RPZ and rent allowance.

I agree, just hilarious that some posters think we have recovered too quickly and an recession is imminent despite the state of our interfered with property market.

Pussyhands

Christine Faithful Ticker wrote: »

Recovered extremely quickly? We are apparently in the middle of a housing crisis.

There's a housing crisis because the economy is absolutely flying.

ELM327

Christine Faithful Ticker wrote: »

I agree, just hilarious that some posters think we have recovered too quickly and an recession is imminent despite the state of our interfered with property market.

Agree. However

recession=/= crash


Italy is already in recession. Recession is a technical term based on specific financial datapoints and is largely irrelevant to the man on the street.


A crash however will see him lose his pension or lose his shirt on his investments or property portfolio

Sonny678

ELM327 wrote:

Agree. However

ELM327 wrote:

Italy is already in recession. Recession is a technical term based on specific financial datapoints and is largely irrelevant to the man on the street.

ELM327 wrote:

recession=/= crash

ELM327 wrote:

A crash however will see him lose his pension or lose his shirt on his investments or property portfolio

A recession doesnt effect the man on the street.

1 World wide recession in 70s caused by oil crisis. Unemployment rockets in Irelands, people are queuing up for hours for petrol.

2 World wide recession in 80s. Ireland again unemployment is very high and emigration the highest since 1950s.

3 Worldwide recession in early 90s. Again Irish economy in poor state unemployment high.

4 Worldwide recession in 08. Unemployment high , emigration high, peoples savings , investments , living standards r all negatively effected.

Recession does impact ordinary people. Ireland has had 11 recessions since 1945. In all those recessions there was negative impact on the man on the street. Every economist worth his salt is saying a recession in next 12 to 24 months. It doesnt matter how long Ireland has recovered. The world economy has been recovering for 8 to 9 years especially the USA. Economies go in cycles. We r definatly at the end of this current growth period . And if something like a Chinese debt crisis or another euro crisis where example Italy not Greece is in meltdown, when then another 08 or worse is possible. The whole Irish economy is very open to the whole world econony. If there is worldwide recession it effects this country greatly. And yes it does effect man on the street from jobs, to government investment, to bank loans from education, infrastructure , health and yes housing crisis. All these areas will lack funding and investment and a recession wouldnt help the housing crisis.
As I said recession in Autumn 2020 is most likely. A recession in early 2020s is almost a certainty.

ELM327

Those you mention were crashes. Oil crises, Dot com bubble, bank runs, etc.
Simple recessions do not have the same impact as a crash.

Sonny678

ELM327 wrote:

Those you mention were crashes. Oil crises, Dot com bubble, bank runs, etc. Simple recessions do not have the same impact as a crash.

US recession
Recession in the US 1960 to 1961
Recession in the US 1969 to 1970
Recession in the US 1973 to 1975
Recession in the US 1980 to 1981
Recession in the US 1990 to 1991
Recession in the US 2000 to 2001
Recession in the US 2007 to 2009

Some of those recessions where worse then others. 70s was oil crisis and 90s dot com bubble. But they are still labelled recessions. American economy has about 8 to 10 years growth and then recession. Recession is very very likely this year or next year or 2021 at latest. Some are worse then others. But the above are the official US recessions since 1960s. And everytime US economy declined the Irish economy declined.

ELM327

I don't see there being a crash style recession a lá the dot com bubble or the 2008 crash. But I would agree that a minor correction is likely, globally, within the next 24 months. Even if there is no brexit.

Franz Von Peppercorn

SSeanSS wrote: »

Wishful thinking here. I like your optimism but I think there will always be a next recession..

He didn’t say there wouldn’t be a recession but that prices wouldn’t fall as much as last time. The last boom was credit driven. This one isn’t. It’s genuine supply demand issues and so when supply increases prices will stagnate or fall but not crash.

Sleeper12

Seems to be a "when is the next crash coming" thread every few weeks.

The reality is that we've only ever had one property crash in Ireland. No one knows what no deal Brexit will do to our economy or the trump effect but taking out these events it's highly unlikely that we will have a crash in the next 5 years at least.

Bottom line is that we have a housing shortage & we are unlikely to see any downward price direction till supply catches up with demand

Franz Von Peppercorn

Sonny678 wrote: »

US recession
Recession in the US 1960 to 1961
Recession in the US 1969 to 1970
Recession in the US 1973 to 1975
Recession in the US 1980 to 1981
Recession in the US 1990 to 1991
Recession in the US 2000 to 2001
Recession in the US 2007 to 2009

Some of those recessions where worse then others. 70s was oil crisis and 90s dot com bubble. But they are still labelled recessions. American economy has about 8 to 10 years growth and then recession. Recession is very very likely this year or next year or 2021 at latest. Some are worse then others. But the above are the official US recessions since 1960s. And everytime US economy declined the Irish economy declined.

And how many of those recessions led to a property crash of the kind that we saw in 2008?