Next crash . .

Nobodysrobots

Sonny678 wrote: »

US recession
Recession in the US 1960 to 1961
Recession in the US 1969 to 1970
Recession in the US 1973 to 1975
Recession in the US 1980 to 1981
Recession in the US 1990 to 1991
Recession in the US 2000 to 2001
Recession in the US 2007 to 2009

Some of those recessions where worse then others. 70s was oil crisis and 90s dot com bubble. But they are still labelled recessions. American economy has about 8 to 10 years growth and then recession. Recession is very very likely this year or next year or 2021 at latest. Some are worse then others. But the above are the official US recessions since 1960s. And everytime US economy declined the Irish economy declined.

And yet property (as an investment anyway) has not only survived those countless recessions, it has performed extraordinarily well and will likely continue to in the long-term future. If I was trying to protect any significant amount of wealth over the long-term future (say next 50 years) I would place a large % into property. This is what the REITs are doing right now, pumping billions into the Irish property market.

Sonny678

ELM327 wrote:

I don't see there being a crash style recession a lá the dot com bubble or the 2008 crash. But I would agree that a minor correction is likely, globally, within the next 24 months. Even if there is no brexit.

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote:

He didn’t say there wouldn’t be a recession but that prices wouldn’t fall as much as last time. The last boom was credit driven. This one isn’t. It’s genuine supply demand issues and so when supply increases prices will stagnate or fall but not crash.

There might not be a crash. Hopefully not. But there is massive issues in the world economy. China debt crisis , eurocrisis , impact of brexit, another banking crisis. Some of the statistics for countries debt and other economic areas since 08 have worsened. Trumps trade war with China that cud really threaten the world economy. Trump has overheated the American ecomony big time. Thats not good. If u look at stock market prices and compare to other times in history. There are very worrying signs here. Some of the economic data out there suggests things are worse now in terms of economic climate then 08.
And if there is a crash in 08 to 10 u had Gordon Brown and Obama, people in charge who were working together to try sort things out in the global economy. Imagine if there was a crash and Trump is in charge of the USA. I cannot see the cross government action we saw after 08 happening now.
A recession will likely happen , how bad I dont know. But there is massive underlying problems in the world economy, that have not been dealt with, especially Chinas debt, if that ever becomes a crisis , that wud lead to a serious crash worldwide . China and American are the countries to look out for.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pussyhands wrote: »

There's a housing crisis because the economy is absolutely flying.

If the economy was flying, everyone would be earning enough to buy a home and not be hoping for a recession for prices come down.

Arthur Daley

Trump would probaly seek to do what he has always done throughout his 'entreprenurial career'. Default and walk away.

tvjunki

You are talking about the next recession. Most of the population have not recovered from the last one!!
The banks are still limiting what they give in mortgages and delaying releasing funds. This has a knock on effect on the market.

Sonny678

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote:

And how many of those recessions led to a property crash of the kind that we saw in 2008?

Prior 1990s Ireland was a an economic basket case. One of the poorest areas in western Europe. We werent selling and buying houses for extraordinary prices in 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s. It was in the 1990s Irish economy really grew and the price of property exploded.

America has had many property bubbles. American property peaks every 18 years.

First bust and boom property bubble in USA was in 1830s around the time of gold rush. 1837 is the first US property bust.
Another boom and bust begins in the USA in 1850s.
In 1873 another bust in America in property.
Massive property crash in the USA in 1930s.
The property market doesnt take of til 1950s.
Another property crash in America in early 1970s.
The next property crash is in 1991 in the USA.
Another crash in 08 in property in the USA.

In 1930s there was boom in Uk property.
In the 1940s housebuilding halted in Uk.
In the 1950s there was a boom in Uk property. In the 1960s still a boom in Uk property.
In 1970s a property bust in the Uk after so called Barber boom .
A second property boom bust in Uk in 1980s. House prices rose by 20% or more in late 80s.
In 1990s a massive bust in Uk property after boom of late 80s. A record number of house repossesions happened in 90s as property prices fell every year in 90s. Upturn at the end of 90s.
A third boom and bust happened in the uk in 00s. With recession in 2008 leading to lowest housebuilding in Uk since 1930s.

Uk have had 3 massive property crashes in 40 years. The US have a property crash every 18 years or so. These are how developed countries have crashs. Ireland in the past economy was very limited. Property crashs are very common in developed countries.

Japan had a massive property boom in 1980s. Japans property bust in 1990. Japan had another boom from 2002 to 08 with Toyko house prices rising by about 70%. A bubble burst in 08. Japan since earthquakes in early part of decade is having another property boom.
Uk USA and Japan and many more countries have had boom bust property markets for generations.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Sonny678 wrote: »

Prior 1990s Ireland was a an economic basket case. One of the poorest areas in western Europe. We werent selling and buying houses for extraordinary prices in 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s. It was in the 1990s Irish economy really grew and the price of property exploded.

America has had many property bubbles. American property peaks every 18 years.

First bust and boom property bubble in USA was in 1830s around the time of gold rush. 1837 is the first US property bust.
Another boom and bust begins in the USA in 1850s.
In 1873 another bust in America in property.
Massive property crash in the USA in 1930s.
The property market doesnt take of til 1950s.
Another property crash in America in early 1970s.
The next property crash is in 1991 in the USA.
Another crash in 08 in property in the USA.

In 1930s there was boom in Uk property.
In the 1940s housebuilding halted in Uk.
In the 1950s there was a boom in Uk property. In the 1960s still a boom in Uk property.
In 1970s a property bust in the Uk after so called Barber boom .
A second property boom bust in Uk in 1980s. House prices rose by 20% or more in late 80s.
In 1990s a massive bust in Uk property after boom of late 80s. A record number of house repossesions happened in 90s as property prices fell every year in 90s. Upturn at the end of 90s.
A third boom and bust happened in the uk in 00s. With recession in 2008 leading to lowest housebuilding in Uk since 1930s.

Uk have had 3 massive property crashes in 40 years. The US have a property crash every 18 years or so. These are how developed countries have crashs. Ireland in the past economy was very limited. Property crashs are very common in developed countries.

Japan had a massive property boom in 1980s. Japans property bust in 1990. Japan had another boom from 2002 to 08 with Toyko house prices rising by about 70%. A bubble burst in 08. Japan since earthquakes in early part of decade is having another property boom.
Uk USA and Japan and many more countries have had boom bust property markets for generations.

So nothing to do with Ireland then.

The last crash was driven by over leveraged credit. Provided that doesn’t happen this time there won’t be a similar crash here. Many recessions come and go with stagnating property prices but not the kind of crash we saw in 2008.

Even if it does happen there won’t be any mortgages available so I wouldn’t wait for it.

KevinCavan

I can’t see how rents will continue to rise indefinitely. People will surely stop coming here to work, when it becomes common knowledge that a room in Dublin will set them back €1000 per month. I think if skilled foreigners start jumping ship from here, we are fecked, because the rental market will collapse. In that event landlords will sell on their properties.

Giveaway

As long as ze Germans do not devalue the euro to stimulate their falling economy i may make some good investments in the next recession

rightmove

KevinCavan wrote: »

I can’t see how rents will continue to rise indefinitely. People will surely stop coming here to work, when it becomes common knowledge that a room in Dublin will set them back €1000 per month. I think if skilled foreigners start jumping ship from here, we are fecked, because the rental market will collapse. In that event landlords will sell on their properties.

LL already leaving. Get rid of rpz may help

DopeTech

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

July 19th 2021

I thought that was the day the ice age ends?

Zenify

Sonny678 wrote: »

Prior 1990s Ireland was a an economic basket case. One of the poorest areas in western Europe. We werent selling and buying houses for extraordinary prices in 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s. It was in the 1990s Irish economy really grew and the price of property exploded.

America has had many property bubbles. American property peaks every 18 years.

First bust and boom property bubble in USA was in 1830s around the time of gold rush. 1837 is the first US property bust.
Another boom and bust begins in the USA in 1850s.
In 1873 another bust in America in property.
Massive property crash in the USA in 1930s.
The property market doesnt take of til 1950s.
Another property crash in America in early 1970s.
The next property crash is in 1991 in the USA.
Another crash in 08 in property in the USA.

In 1930s there was boom in Uk property.
In the 1940s housebuilding halted in Uk.
In the 1950s there was a boom in Uk property. In the 1960s still a boom in Uk property.
In 1970s a property bust in the Uk after so called Barber boom .
A second property boom bust in Uk in 1980s. House prices rose by 20% or more in late 80s.
In 1990s a massive bust in Uk property after boom of late 80s. A record number of house repossesions happened in 90s as property prices fell every year in 90s. Upturn at the end of 90s.
A third boom and bust happened in the uk in 00s. With recession in 2008 leading to lowest housebuilding in Uk since 1930s.

Uk have had 3 massive property crashes in 40 years. The US have a property crash every 18 years or so. These are how developed countries have crashs. Ireland in the past economy was very limited. Property crashs are very common in developed countries.

Japan had a massive property boom in 1980s. Japans property bust in 1990. Japan had another boom from 2002 to 08 with Toyko house prices rising by about 70%. A bubble burst in 08. Japan since earthquakes in early part of decade is having another property boom.
Uk USA and Japan and many more countries have had boom bust property markets for generations.

I've had the exact same thought as that for a long time. You've done a bit of research to add some good facts to it.

Pussyhands

Christine Faithful Ticker wrote: »

If the economy was flying, everyone would be earning enough to buy a home and not be hoping for a recession for prices come down.

Price of housing is high because there's a massive number of great jobs in this country.

Look up Irish GDP. Look up wage growth. Look up unemployment rate.

handlemaster

KevinCavan wrote: »

I can’t see how rents will continue to rise indefinitely. People will surely stop coming here to work, when it becomes common knowledge that a room in Dublin will set them back €1000 per month. I think if skilled foreigners start jumping ship from here, we are fecked, because the rental market will collapse. In that event landlords will sell on their properties.

If people.come for work they usually have the all the facts in this age of the internet .

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pussyhands wrote: »

Price of housing is high because there's a massive number of great jobs in this country.

Look up Irish GDP. Look up wage growth. Look up unemployment rate.

Then it's all hunky dory, high prices but also high wages so we can all afford lovely homes.

What do you think the underlying cause will be for this imminent nationwide crash?

ZX7R

I don't know if this post will make sense,
A person I know works as a banking adviseor, travels all over the world working with banks.
I asked him how long this boom Will last and he replied to me in layman's terms.
He said Ireland is not in a boom but in econic recovery and will be for at least another 6 year's, Irish banking have tight requirements for mortgages and untill they feel it safe to relax these requirements there is little worries of any crash.
He expects a real property boom in 8 to ten years time and a crash 5 year's there after.
I only ask him as I will be emagrating in 3years and will be selling the family home.

Sonny678

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote:

So nothing to do with Ireland then.

Ireland is not a great example for property bust boom because simply up to 30 years ago we were a very poor country. Ireland in 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s economy was limited and very backward. People didnt have money. Living standards were poor. We were the sickman of western europe in ecominic terms. It was only since mid 1990s did Irish ecomony develop. And we had a boom in 00s.

However we can see in other developed countries USA have been having property boom and bust since 1800s. USA have property bust every 18 years. Uk have had 3 massive property booms and busts in 40 years. Japan have had 2 property boom and bust in 30 years.

Yes Ireland has had property rises and drops before. But there are very few records prior to 1970s. What records we have we can say this. The few records for Dublin and rest of the country we can say house prices collapsed in the first half of 20th century. A price of house in Dublin fell 88% from 1910 to 1940.

1700s there was increase in house prices in Ireland
In 1720s and 1740s there was a decline in house prices in Ireland with famine.
There was big growth in house prices in in Ireland in late 1700s.
House prices drop again in 1820s after Act of Union.
House prices drop around the Irish famine in 1840s 1850s and increase again by end 1890s in Ireland.
House prices from 1900 to 1940s ib Ireland have another massive drop.
House prices see massive increase in 1940s. Now house prices in Ireland are 7 times the price a house was in 1800.
The early 1900s saw biggest decline of prices ever in Ireland.
Again there is lack of houses built in 1950s but increase in 1960s and 70s. And that bring us to the property madness of Celtic Tiger. Irish property prices have gone up and down for 300 years, sometimes quite dramatically. The recent bust in property in Ireland was the most dramatic in our history. But it also is one of the most dramatic and biggest bust in any developed countries history in modern history.

ESRI warned last year we could have property crash. Even though it is not fuelled by credit. Big investment funds and foriegn buy to let firms are the difference in this property boom. ESRI said these foreign funds could stop and disappear and this would send house prices crashing. OECD have also warned there could be a property crash here. The Irish property market according to experts is the most volatile property market in the world. For example in the boom in Ireland prices grew by 400 % in twenty years and fell by 50%. In the Uk the next most volatile market property grew by 240% in the boom and fell by 7 %.

devlinio

ZX7R wrote: »

I don't know if this post will make sense,
A person I know works as a banking adviseor, travels all over the world working with banks.
I asked him how long this boom Will last and he replied to me in layman's terms.
He said Ireland is not in a boom but in econic recovery and will be for at least another 6 year's, Irish banking have tight requirements for mortgages and untill they feel it safe to relax these requirements there is little worries of any crash.
He expects a real property boom in 8 to ten years time and a crash 5 year's there after.
I only ask him as I will be emagrating in 3years and will be selling the family home.

Interesting to note.

handlemaster

ZX7R wrote: »

I don't know if this post will make sense,
A person I know works as a banking adviseor, travels all over the world working with banks.
I asked him how long this boom Will last and he replied to me in layman's terms.
He said Ireland is not in a boom but in econic recovery and will be for at least another 6 year's, Irish banking have tight requirements for mortgages and untill they feel it safe to relax these requirements there is little worries of any crash.
He expects a real property boom in 8 to ten years time and a crash 5 year's there after.
I only ask him as I will be emagrating in 3years and will be selling the family home.

I think we are such a small open economy if there is a recession in the US we will be hit hard.

Wanderer78

Sonny678 wrote: »

Ireland is not a great example for property bust boom because simply up to 30 years ago we were a very poor country. Ireland in 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s economy was limited and very backward. People didnt have money. Living standards were poor. We were the sickman of western europe in ecominic terms. It was only since mid 1990s did Irish ecomony develop. And we had a boom in 00s.

However we can see in other developed countries USA have been having property boom and bust since 1800s. USA have property bust every 18 years. Uk have had 3 massive property booms and busts in 40 years. Japan have had 2 property boom and bust in 30 years.

Yes Ireland has had property rises and drops before. But there are very few records prior to 1970s. What records we have we can say this. The few records for Dublin and rest of the country we can say house prices collapsed in the first half of 20th century. A price of house in Dublin fell 88% from 1910 to 1940.

1700s there was increase in house prices in Ireland
In 1720s and 1740s there was a decline in house prices in Ireland with famine.
There was big growth in house prices in in Ireland in late 1700s.
House prices drop again in 1820s after Act of Union.
House prices drop around the Irish famine in 1840s 1850s and increase again by end 1890s in Ireland.
House prices from 1900 to 1940s ib Ireland have another massive drop.
House prices see massive increase in 1940s. Now house prices in Ireland are 7 times the price a house was in 1800.
The early 1900s saw biggest decline of prices ever in Ireland.
Again there is lack of houses built in 1950s but increase in 1960s and 70s. And that bring us to the property madness of Celtic Tiger. Irish property prices have gone up and down for 300 years, sometimes quite dramatically. The recent bust in property in Ireland was the most dramatic in our history. But it also is one of the most dramatic and biggest bust in any developed countries history in modern history.

ESRI warned last year we could have property crash. Even though it is not fuelled by credit. Big investment funds and foriegn buy to let firms are the difference in this property boom. ESRI said these foreign funds could stop and disappear and this would send house prices crashing. OECD have also warned there could be a property crash here. The Irish property market according to experts is the most volatile property market in the world. For example in the boom in Ireland prices grew by 400 % in twenty years and fell by 50%. In the Uk the next most volatile market property grew by 240% in the boom and fell by 7 %.

patience, Canada and Australia look like could be contenders for our thrown!

Sonny678

Wanderer78 wrote:

patience, Canada and Australia look like could be contenders for our thrown!

Yes Australia is definitely a future contender for our thrown.

Wanderer78

Sonny678 wrote: »

Yes Australia is definitely a future contender for our thrown.

not looking good for them alright, but maybe they have a 'soft landing':D

steve keens latest debunking economics podcast is actually about this subject matter, for those interested, on a global scale

Arthur Daley

ZX7R wrote: »

He expects a real property boom in 8 to ten years time and a crash 5 year's there after.

Most people cannot sustainably afford property at current levels. What does a property boom in 8 years time look like? Will the average house be €1m now. Then who can afford to buy them. The world will not pay Irish people enough for their products/services to pay for these ridiculous accommodation costs. That's the harsh reality I see, and that is what happened in 2007.

Having been burned before, the Irish worker needs to have one eye on their own competitiveness, because it's every man for himself for most of us. Even if the politicians and cartels lording over the place lose the run of themselves yet again, doesn't mean the adults truly charged with keeping the lights on can afford to do the same.

ZX7R

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Most people cannot sustainably afford property at current levels. What does a property boom in 8 years time look like? Will the average house be €1m now. Then who can afford to buy them. The world will not pay Irish people enough for their products/services to pay for these ridiculous accommodation costs. That's the harsh reality I see, and that is what happened in 2007.

Having been burned before, the Irish worker needs to have one eye on their own competitiveness, because it's every man for himself for most of us. Even if the politicians and cartels lording over the place lose the run of themselves yet again, doesn't mean the adults truly charged with keeping the lights on can afford to do the same.

I don't know what it will look like,there will always be booms and crash's.
Anyways I won't be living here then