Werewolf - Mario vs Sonic - NEXT LEVEL

Nigel WW

If on the off chance Jake isn’t telling the truth then Isla will turn up good

Desmond WW

Winifred WW wrote: »

I agree but start with Gertrude, it's actually ridiculous at this stage how she's getting away with it. I know you don't trust me from above but the below need to go

I'll stick to what I said earlier
Gertie
Isla
Conor

3 wolves in those 3

I'm strong leaning Gerty village, up until the conversion at least.

Winifred WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

I would argue we’re a lot closer to all three than the Sonic people?

I think so too however we've both got a different 3! The other thing is, it's potentially 2 kills or max 3 to eliminate Mario island as opposed to 3 potentially 4 to eliminate Sonic island. We need to reduce the kill rate

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

@Vernon
Where do you think the conversion has come? Sonic or Mario

Looking at the two groups

Sonic
One wolf dead
One wolf identified
One wolf fairly well identified - I’ll let ye put a % on it
One wolf completely unknown (is my read)

Mario
No dead wolves
Group of four identified containing three wolves


My biggest problem with going after the sonic people is that I believe the convert is on your side. So we’ll say it’s you converted for argument, you’re going to go along with everything you believed before, you’re going to shop all ur team to try and stay under the radar. It’s going to be very hard to find you

IF you believe the convert is on your side then the smart move is to go after our wolves. Conor, Isla, Wini in that order

I would tend to think it came from our side as we have (had) a stronger core than ye.

Prior to conversion: Desmond, Phil, myself and Angus were basically lock clear (giving Phil has had no counter to his Sonic claim since day 1).

Now Angus is dead, but that leaves three of us plus one more in Tails.

So I think that it's very likely one of the four of us was converted to create dissension. I know it's not me, and I tend to believe it's not Phil as he's still in contact with Tails and knows about Mario

Having said that I'm still killing Steve tonight. Catch a wolf, kill a wolf, then reassess.

Mary WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

He's technically right though. There's 7 left from Shroomie Land, and 2 active role claims, which means if both Nidge and Jake are legit then that leaves 3 wolves in five.

Statistically there's a 60% chance of hitting a wolf if we lynch into that grouping.

I think there is a better than 60% chance that Steve & Clodagh are wolves but your the stats man


I just have a weird nigle about Nigel. He seems like someone who was converted to our islands wolf team. Trying to get us to focus on their wolves. making it sound like our islanders had me and Clodagh 50/50 when on this thread our islanders were arguing that Clodagh should be next after Steve whilst not mentioning me. Protecting our wolves in effect.

Vernon WW

Mary WW wrote: »

I think there is a better than 60% chance that Steve & Clodagh are wolves but your the stats man


I just have a weird nigle about Nigel. He seems like someone who was converted to our islands wolf team. Trying to get us to focus on their wolves. making it sound like our islanders had me and Clodagh 50/50 when on this thread our islanders were arguing that Clodagh should be next after Steve whilst not mentioning me. Protecting our wolves in effect.

And you might be right. But we'll worry about that later, unless someone has an Uzi no matter who we kill tonight won't reduce the kill rate tomorrow.

Still voting Steve to the eternal fires of wolfy hell though

Mary WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

And you might be right. But we'll worry about that later, unless someone has an Uzi no matter who we kill tonight won't reduce the kill rate tomorrow.

Still voting Steve to the eternal fires of wolfy hell though

Yeah already voted for Steve.

Nigel WW

@vernon that’s short sighted, no matter where the convert came from he’s going to your team, the widens the net further to catch the last wolf on Evil Sonic. Getting rid of Evil Mario means less kills

@Mary even if I have been converted the above logic holds true. You seem to have taken massive offence to my skimming posts and inadvertently bumping you up the queue, I’ve apologised, for the sake of the village you’d want to get over it and not let it cloud logic

Phil WW

Sorry, who are the confirmed goods from Marioland?

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

@vernon that’s short sighted, no matter where the convert came from he’s going to your team, the widens the net further to catch the last wolf on Evil Sonic. Getting rid of Evil Mario means less kills

@Mary even if I have been converted the above logic holds true. You seem to have taken massive offence to my skimming posts and inadvertently bumping you up the queue, I’ve apologised, for the sake of the village you’d want to get over it and not let it cloud logic

There's nothing stopping you whipping up a counter wagon on Isla or Conor

In fact it would be great for my analysis later:D

Vernon WW

Phil WW wrote: »

Sorry, who are the confirmed goods from Marioland?

Before the conversion, Nidge was unchallenged since day 1 as Luigi (like you). I believe that claim.

The Shroomies are also believing Jake is Yoshi, I'm skeptical but willing to let it go for now as there's more important things to deal with. He claimed pre conversion and also set himself up with a Yoshi post in his first.

Gabriel WW

Winifred WW wrote: »

I think so too however we've both got a different 3! The other thing is, it's potentially 2 kills or max 3 to eliminate Mario island as opposed to 3 potentially 4 to eliminate Sonic island. We need to reduce the kill rate

Potentially 2 kills for Mario island? Where are you getting that Wini? Unless I've missed something major then there are at least 3 wolves from Mario Island. The only dead wolf is from Sonic so that means you've got your islands mixed up.

Mary WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

@vernon that’s short sighted, no matter where the convert came from he’s going to your team, the widens the net further to catch the last wolf on Evil Sonic. Getting rid of Evil Mario means less kills

@Mary even if I have been converted the above logic holds true. You seem to have taken massive offence to my skimming posts and inadvertently bumping you up the queue, I’ve apologised, for the sake of the village you’d want to get over it and not let it cloud logic

Don't worry im not going to tunnel you. Steve is the target. If he flips bad, I will be voting Clodagh next unless something changes. Won't be going for yourself. That said im sure if someone bumped you up beside Isla (not saying thats exactly the same) you would point out the innacuracy too.


why no matter where the convert came from is he going to the Sonic baddies team?

Vernon WW

In fact, I'm almost certain I'm the earliest vote on Steve so if we tie wagons he'll still die.

God my analysis would love a tied lynch of Steve VS Isla or Conor

Jake WW

Phil WW wrote: »

Sorry, who are the confirmed goods from Marioland?

No one is confirmed.

Yoshi is me and Luigi is Nigel

Jake WW

As in we have claimed roles

Nigel WW

Because the convert seems to have come from the Shamen? Or is that wrong?

Nigel WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

In fact, I'm almost certain I'm the earliest vote on Steve so if we tie wagons he'll still die.

God my analysis would love a tied lynch of Steve VS Isla or Conor

Split wagons help nobody, would only allow someone to slip under the net. I’d prefer consensus on strategy before we lynch

Phil WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

Because the convert seems to have come from the Shamen? Or is that wrong?

Given me and Mario competed for a prize this morning, I’d be more inclined to think the wolves also competed for a prize too, so I’d guess that’s where the conversion was from.

Mary WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

Because the convert seems to have come from the Shamen? Or is that wrong?

What indicates the Shamans involvement? maybe I am wrong and missed this completely but I didn't think conversion was a Shaman type power and instead thought something like that usually came from a wolf team winning a task.

Desmond WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

Because the convert seems to have come from the Shamen? Or is that wrong?

He'll going on team sonic evil bit can be drawn from anywhere as it was after reunification

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

Split wagons help nobody, would only allow someone to slip under the net. I’d prefer consensus on strategy before we lynch

Oh yes they do in this game as we have flips

We might be able to see who the other wolves are, or indeed who's doing some bussing on a wolf destined for death.

It'll never happen unless the villagers came to an agreement on it though, wolves won't allow that to happen as it exposes them too much

Phil WW

Mary WW wrote: »

What indicates the Shamans involvement? maybe I am wrong and missed this completely but I didn't think conversion was a Shaman type power and instead thought something like that usually came from a wolf team winning a task.

Shaman powers are usually dealers choice, as in they can cover anything.
A conversion for surviving three days wouldn’t be out of the question.

Winifred WW

Gabriel WW wrote: »

Potentially 2 kills for Mario island? Where are you getting that Wini? Unless I've missed something major then there are at least 3 wolves from Mario Island. The only dead wolf is from Sonic so that means you've got your islands mixed up.

Thanks Gab, I got my islands mixed up

Winifred WW

I'm voting Steve tonight, if I was on original island I'd be voting Gertie but catch a wolf kill a wolf and the consensus from the other island is Steve is a lock wolf

On thinking of the conversion, if you are wolves Jake is an absolute lock for conversion, the one man who can block kills however Nigels posts have shifted a bit since conversion. I know it's shading but **** it, pointing it out for future reference! Yoshi could be vitally important to both the wolf teams against each other to be honest

Vernon WW

Winifred WW wrote: »

I'm voting Steve tonight, if I was on original island I'd be voting Gertie but catch a wolf kill a wolf and the consensus from the other island is Steve is a lock wolf

On thinking of the conversion, if you are wolves Jake is an absolute lock for conversion, the one man who can block kills however Nigels posts have shifted a bit since conversion. I know it's shading but **** it, pointing it out for future reference! Yoshi could be vitally important to both the wolf teams against each other to be honest

Or Riona, who admitted to winning an extra life. That's basically getting two wolves

Nigel WW

Nice diversion Wini
@Vernon be careful of wolves spreading dissension

Task 1 is to get the wolves we knew about before we almagmated

Mary WW

An outed Sonic, Yoshi, Luigi or 2 life Riona would have to be best value for conversions. Wolves may have tried to go for someone less expected though

Nigel WW

If you think there’s as much chance of the conversion joining the Mario team as the Sonic team then I’m happy to go with Steve.

If you think the conversion joined the Sonic team then we should go after our three

Jake WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

Or Riona, who admitted to winning an extra life. That's basically getting two wolves

The wolves know Im who I am as they hit me and I was protected. They have not converted me, Ill be dead come morning.

Riona would be the obvious choice, but they usually dont pick the obvious choice.

I also dont believe Nigels changed his posting style much. Explain Wini?

Desmond WW

Winifred WW wrote: »

I'm voting Steve tonight, if I was on original island I'd be voting Gertie but catch a wolf kill a wolf and the consensus from the other island is Steve is a lock wolf

On thinking of the conversion, if you are wolves Jake is an absolute lock for conversion, the one man who can block kills however Nigels posts have shifted a bit since conversion. I know it's shading but **** it, pointing it out for future reference! Yoshi could be vitally important to both the wolf teams against each other to be honest

Why so anti Gerty, wini?

Vernon WW

Jake WW wrote: »

The wolves know Im who I am as they hit me and I was protected. They have not converted me, Ill be dead come morning.

Riona would be the obvious choice, but they usually dont pick the obvious choice.

I also dont believe Nigels changed his posting style much. Explain Wini?

Ok well if that's true I'm more inclined to believe your claim as it would make sense to out yourself this morning. Still don't like you asking others roles to claim though.

Time will tell I guess.

Rionas two lives are extremely pro wolf imo, more I think about it I'd definitely take her. If we have to lynch Riona we'll have to do it twice which could mess us up at endgame

Nigel WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

He's technically right though. There's 7 left from Shroomie Land, and 2 active role claims, which means if both Nidge and Jake are legit then that leaves 3 wolves in five.

Statistically there's a 60% chance of hitting a wolf if we lynch into that grouping.

What if I told you it was a 75% chance?

I know Mario, have done since the start.
@Phil can confirm that 37 was enough to win today’s task

Phil WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

What if I told you it was a 75% chance?

I know Mario, have done since the start.
@Phil can confirm that 37 was enough to win today’s task

Hello Luigi.

Went with 97

Jake WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

Ok well if that's true I'm more inclined to believe your claim as it would make sense to out yourself this morning. Still don't like you asking others roles to claim though.

Time will tell I guess.

Rionas two lives are extremely pro wolf imo, more I think about it I'd definitely take her. If we have to lynch Riona we'll have to do it twice which could mess us up at endgame

At the time I had no idea we were being combined.

My thought process was we can see who claims roles and who counter claims and work from there.

Nigel WW

Can you confirm that I know Mario from that?

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

What if I told you it was a 75% chance?

I know Mario, have done since the start.
@Phil can confirm that 37 was enough to win today’s task

I definitely want to lynch into your lot, but Steve has to die first, I can't let his wolfy ass live another day. If there was a bullet we could move on and lynch one of your guys then

Jake WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

Ok well if that's true I'm more inclined to believe your claim as it would make sense to out yourself this morning. Still don't like you asking others roles to claim though.

Time will tell I guess.

Rionas two lives are extremely pro wolf imo, more I think about it I'd definitely take her. If we have to lynch Riona we'll have to do it twice which could mess us up at endgame

But would wolves go for the obvious choice?

Phil WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

Can you confirm that I know Mario from that?

I can confirm you have access to Mario's chambers anyway. Which means it's likely that you do, cause Tails would have known my number, but only through knowing me.

Nigel WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

I definitely want to lynch into your lot, but Steve has to die first, I can't let his wolfy ass live another day. If there was a bullet we could move on and lynch one of your guys then

Like I’ve said if you think the convert joined Sonic then go for Mario and vica versa, you have to forget about Steve, for your Steve we have Isla, Conor and Wini, they’re all wolves

Vernon WW

Jake WW wrote: »

But would wolves go for the obvious choice?

I'd go for the best chance of getting my team over the line. I'm not a wolf so I have no clue if abilities would survive conversion. Likely not I think tbh.

Two lives as a prize though....that would definitely survive conversion

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

Like I’ve said if you think the convert joined Sonic then go for Mario and vica versa, you have to forget about Steve, for your Steve we have Isla, Conor and Wini, they’re all wolves

I'll go with consensus from the group on Sonic. A red flip on the Shroomies is definitely better for data and analysis from my perspective, then I could see where they voted the last two days

Nigel WW

So let’s go with Isla?

Vernon WW

Too many wolves, not enough lynches is our problem Nidge :pac:

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

So let’s go with Isla?

Fcuk it. If you're that confident on Isla with I presume extra info

I'm down for it

Nigel WW

You’ve gotten my extra info!
And genuinely if the convert is gone to Sonic that’s where we should go

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

You’ve gotten my extra info!
And genuinely if the convert is gone to Sonic that’s where we should go

Ok, I believe you. I'll switch to Isla

Jake WW

Im happy with any if these jokers.... Isla it is

Vernon WW

Vote logged for Isla

Riona WW

Is anyone against going for Isla? I’m not btw, just making sure it’s a group decision.