Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

seamus wrote: »

If the UK doesn't approve the extension agreement, it doesn't exist.

I mentioned it a couple of time when it came up, I'm sure it doesn't need to go before parliament, it can be done by statutory instrument. There's been no discussion in parliament or amongst MPs that it should be put to a vote.

Joe_ Public

seamus wrote: »

It's not EU law until all 28 member parliaments have approved it; including the UK.
If the UK doesn't approve the extension agreement, it doesn't exist.

The UK's withdrawal bill included an amendment that allows the date to be extended by statutory instrument, which I expect would be done in parallel with approving the extension agreement.

A formality, perhaps. But until things are actually signed and done, I would taking nothing for granted from this UK parliament.

Yes, the pm said in her letter to MPs that she would introduce the necessary SI if required. Everybody’s treating it as a straightforward procedure but am guessing there are a few no deal lawyers and constitutional experts poring over the statute books to see if they can throw a dummy in the works.

robinph

Imreoir2 wrote: »

So, do people think it will be voted down by a greater or lesser margin than MV2?
I think it will be by a greater margin, there is really nothing to be gained for any MP to support the deal, neither leave nor remain want it.

If she has said that the indicative votes are to follow if after MV3 fails then there is no reason for anyone faltering over their decision to back it tomorrow. They get another try to actually make a decent decision through the other votes, only if the Brextremists are scared of it being called off would they back MV3 and I can't think why any from the opposite side would back it if there are potential better choices coming up the next day.

Shelga

Looking at the list of amendments parliament will be voting on, this one caught my eye. The 'pro-Brexit amendment'- Tabled by a cross-party group of Brexiters, and signed by more than 80 MPs – the great majority Conservative – this notes that the Tories and Labour both stood in the 2017 election on manifestos promising to deliver Brexit, and says parliament “reaffirms its commitment to honour the result of the referendum that the UK should leave the European Union”.

What on earth is the point of that? Even if you are an ardent Brexiter, this amendment delivers nothing concrete. Talk about epic time wasting. It's not like catastrophic No Deal is looming imminently or anything. Could this government be any more pathetic?

Synode

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1110152210095185920

I thought Bercow said no to this. How is she getting it past him

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Looking at the list of amendments parliament will be voting on, this one caught my eye. The 'pro-Brexit amendment'- Tabled by a cross-party group of Brexiters, and signed by more than 80 MPs – the great majority Conservative – this notes that the Tories and Labour both stood in the 2017 election on manifestos promising to deliver Brexit, and says parliament “reaffirms its commitment to honour the result of the referendum that the UK should leave the European Union”.

What on earth is the point of that? Even if you are an ardent Brexiter, this amendment delivers nothing concrete. Talk about epic time wasting. It's not like catastrophic No Deal is looming imminently or anything. Could this government be any more pathetic?

It's designed to kill off any possibility of Remain much as No Deal was voted down two weeks ago.

LeinsterDub

Synode wrote: »

I thought Bercow said no to this. How is she getting it past him

New leave date I assume

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

will Bercow allow MV3 though?

MrMusician18

LeinsterDub wrote: »

New leave date I assume

The commitments won by TM at Strasbourg have now been codified and agreed in a legal text endorsed by the European Council.

TM asked Tusk for this to facilitate her bringing back the deal for MV3. The speaker is there to facilitate debate not frustrate it, so if Bercow judges that MV3 has a reasonable chance of passing, it's almost certain he'll allow it.

But, yep, technically his call and nothing can be taken as certain these days.

Shelga

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's designed to kill off any possibility of Remain much as No Deal was voted down two weeks ago.

Ah yes, tabled by Brexiter fruitcakes, so no clarity or plan required. Silly me!

Leroy42

Imreoir2 wrote: »

So, do people think it will be voted down by a greater or lesser margin than MV2?
I think it will be by a greater margin, there is really nothing to be gained for any MP to support the deal, neither leave nor remain want it.

IMO, it has a pretty good chance of getting through. For all the talk of indicative votes, the tories will do everything they can to avoid losing control over this, they are in no mood for a cross party national unity agreement.

But the likes of JRM, Johnson etc are really looking over the cliff edge at the moment. WHilst they may claim that it all project fear, why take the risk? Vote through WA and start work on immediately working on tearing it down. Using the transition period to get a new PM and new negotiating team as they really do seem to believe that it was simply a problem with belief and application rather than a fundamental issue with Brexit itself.

If, after the transition period, they are forced to accept a CU or whatever, they can simply blame TM and her terrible deal and claim they needed to vote for it to avoid a No Deal, which TM had left them no choice

Laois_Man

DUP still refusing to back the WA

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1110165453278711809


Shock horror!

lawred2

Water John wrote: »

Liam Fox still in La La Land.
'Liam Fox has indicated the government could ignore MPs’ views from indicative Brexit votes this week if parliament’s stated choice goes against the Conservative manifesto, insisting the real choice is still between Theresa May’s deal and no deal.' Guardian

The Conservative election manifesto trumps the opinion of Parliament.

Hasn't it always?

Inquitus

This is how I see it panning out:

• MV3 is defeated, if it is brought to the floor, on a par with MV2
• Indicative votes go ahead whether MV3 takes place or not, and if they find consensus it will violate May's red lines and the Tory Manifesto
• May will refuse to bring a vote to enshrine the Indicative Vote outcome into law, due to being against the will of the executive
• May will perhaps try MV4 if Bercow allows setting it as My Deal or a GE and a long delay
• May will call a GE, probably resign and tell Europe they will host EU elections and request the delay til Dec

It's either that or they crash out due to incompetence on 12th April. I would rate these 2 at about 50/50 until we see the commons make some progress.

MadYaker

So do the DUP want a hard brexit then or what?

lawred2

Laois_Man wrote: »

DUP still refusing to back the WA

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1110165453278711809


Shock horror!

Well at least they are being consistent. Can't understand those that voted against May's deal twice contemplating voting for it this time..

Or even worse those voting for it this time in exchange for May's resignation.

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

So do the DUP want a hard brexit then or what?

Of course they do.

Professor Moriarty

lawred2 wrote: »

Well at least they are being consistent. Can't understand those that voted against May's deal twice contemplating voting for it this time..

Or even worse those voting for it this time in exchange for May's resignation.

Well, the Brexiteers are gambling that if she goes then a Brexiteer will become PM and they will push for a harder Brexit as the final outcome of future negotiations.

robinph

I can't get my head around why MP's seem to be slightly more inclined towards the GE route than a second referendum? A GE and they are all in very risky situations for keeping their jobs, a second referendum and they can absolve themselves of the blame for whatever happens next as the people decided after they came up with the options, but they then get to carry on arguing about it and taking a salary for another three years.

Inquitus

robinph wrote: »

I can't get my head around why MP's seem to be slightly more inclined towards the GE route than a second referendum? A GE and they are all in very risky situations for keeping their jobs, a second referendum and they can absolve themselves of the blame for whatever happens next as the people decided after they came up with the options, but they then get to carry on arguing about it and taking a salary for another three years.

A 2nd Referendum would implode the Tory Party, that's why they don't want one, Part first, Country a long way behind.

Nody

Can UK say the same thing?

Brussels, 25 March 2019

As it is increasingly likely that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a deal on 12 April, the European Commission has today completed its “no-deal” preparations.

...

Since December 2017, the European Commission has been preparing for a “no-deal” scenario. It has published 90 preparedness notices, 3 Commission Communications, and has made 19 legislative proposals (see below).

The Commission has held extensive technical discussions with the EU27 Member States both on general issues of preparedness and contingency work and on specific sectorial, legal and administrative preparedness issues. The Commission has now also completed its tour of the capitals of the 27 EU Member States. The aim of these visits was to provide any necessary clarifications on the Commission's preparedness and contingency action and to discuss national preparations and contingency plans. The visits showed a high degree of preparation by Member States for all scenarios.

Full press release is here including links to each countries website, the rules, the proposals etc. As always EU has done their homework properly and are prepared and UK are in complete disarray trying to agree on what it wants.

Leroy42

robinph wrote: »

I can't get my head around why MP's seem to be slightly more inclined towards the GE route than a second referendum? A GE and they are all in very risky situations for keeping their jobs, a second referendum and they can absolve themselves of the blame for whatever happens next as the people decided after they came up with the options, but they then get to carry on arguing about it and taking a salary for another three years.

some 60% of them (I think but stand to be corrected) are in safe seats so have almost no possibility of losing their seats.

Put on top of that the fact that the main opposition party is fundamentally not much different than they are in terms of Brexit and the risk is even less.

There is a very real possibility that a 2nd Ref would return a Remain vote which many in the Tory party simply do not want.

JeffKenna

Good thing the EU stepped in last week anyway, be looking at a no deal exit Friday otherwise.

joe40

MadYaker wrote: »

So do the DUP want a hard brexit then or what?

Are the DUP really strong brexiteers?
I know they campaigned for a leave vote in the referendum but before that there was no agitation from them about leaving the EU that I'm aware of.
I get the sense that they can't be seen to support the WA since that is putting NI at a different position to rest of the UK. I think they would prefer no Brexit, soft Brexit or indeed no deal, so long as NI will be treated the same as rest of UK

This differentiates them from the hardcore brexiteers who may support the WA sooner than risk no brexit at all.

The DUP are a narrow minded party with a narrow minded focus, which is their own survival. The greater good of NI, UK or Ireland are secondary.

Water John

Whilst Bercow will probably allow an Mv3 considering the altered timetable given by the EU, there is no chance he will allow Mv4.
She has one shot at it. Unless she agrees to 2nd Ref with Mv4.

Inquitus

JeffKenna wrote: »

Good thing the EU stepped in last week anyway, be looking at a no deal exit Friday otherwise.

Unless something major changes the no deal crash out date has just been moved 2 weeks. May is still bleating on about MV3 FFS. Its depressing at this point.

prawnsambo

joe40 wrote: »

Are the DUP really strong brexiteers?
I know they campaigned for a leave vote in the referendum but before that there was no agitation from them about leaving the EU that I'm aware of.
I get the sense that they can't be seen to support the WA since that is putting NI at a different position to rest of the UK. I think they would prefer no Brexit, soft Brexit or indeed no deal, so long as NI will be treated the same as rest of UK

This differentiates them from the hardcore brexiteers who may support the WA sooner than risk no brexit at all.

The DUP are a narrow minded party with a narrow minded focus, which is their own survival. The greater good of NI, UK or Ireland are secondary.

They see a hard brexit as death to the GFA. Puts an end to all that cross border co-operation and puts Dublin back in its box. Allegedly.

joe40

The Telegraph
(@Telegraph)
The front page of tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph: Boris Johnson: ‘We have blinked. We have baulked. We have bottled it completely. It is time for the PM to channel the spirit of Moses in Exodus, and say to Pharaoh in Brussels – LET MY PEOPLE GO’ pic.twitter.com/r0m99bgKme

March 24, 2019

Oh god if it wasn't so serious it would be hysterical. So according to Boris the EU is virtually holding the UK captive. FFS

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

They see a hard brexit as death to the GFA. Puts an end to all that cross border co-operation and puts Dublin back in its box. Allegedly.

And death to NI's economy and their electoral advantage. The UUP have already clawed back 20% of votes from the DUP. A hard Brexit that destroys the economy, as it surely will, must also destroy the DUP. Behind every cloud etc.

ancapailldorcha

joe40 wrote: »

Oh god if it wasn't so serious it would be hysterical. So according to Boris the EU is virtually holding the UK captive. FFS

It's yet another dimension to the innate absurdity of Brexit. Poor little England is an oppressed victim of the terrible EU. So much so that it can leave whenever it wants via a protocol one of its peers created and will now somehow have the capacity to cut great deals with global powers like Brazil, China, the US and India. Or we'll just have to accept compromise as part of these deals like a huge influx or Indians and bleached, cat food grade chicken because it turned out that the vision of buccaneering, global Britain is a complete fantasy to disguise the Atlanticists' dream of becoming a vassal state to Trump's USA.