Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

joe40 wrote: »

The Telegraph
(@Telegraph)
The front page of tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph: Boris Johnson: ‘We have blinked. We have baulked. We have bottled it completely. It is time for the PM to channel the spirit of Moses in Exodus, and say to Pharaoh in Brussels – LET MY PEOPLE GO’ . . .

As others have pointed out, after Moses told Pharaoh to "let my people go", the Israelites spent 40 years wandering in the desert living off scavenged bread, and relapsing into the worship of idols. Moses himself died during this period; indeed, the entire generation who left Egypt died in the desert and it was their children who brought the wandering to an end by invading the lands of Og and Sihon in what is now Jordan, and massacring the Midianites.

Good to know how Boris sees life in post-Brexit Britain!

Inquitus

Seems May is close to ruling out No Deal, heavily caveated and allegedly, which if true is a good development for us!

"May also appears to be moving more firmly towards ruling out no deal. One minister says that it is the ‘the first time she has said it so definitively’. This minister says that ‘it is the issue of the Union seems to be what has really convinced her’ of this."

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/ministers-left-no-clearer-about-mays-intentions-at-crunch-cabinet/

ancapailldorcha

Inquitus wrote: »

Seems May is close to ruling out No Deal, heavily caveated and allegedly, which if true is a good development for us!

"May also appears to be moving more firmly towards ruling out no deal. One minister says that it is the ‘the first time she has said it so definitively’. This minister says that ‘it is the issue of the Union seems to be what has really convinced her’ of this."

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/ministers-left-no-clearer-about-mays-intentions-at-crunch-cabinet/

Surely that can only mean either revoking Article 50 or, more likely that she's got the support she needs to sidestep Bercow and hold MV3.

robinph

Inquitus wrote: »

A 2nd Referendum would implode the Tory Party, that's why they don't want one, Part first, Country a long way behind.

But if they are planning to run the GE as an alternative to a referendum then surely the vast majority of seats are incredibly precarious.

Shelga

robinph wrote: »

But if they are planning to run the GE as an alternative to a referendum then surely the vast majority of seats are incredibly precarious.

I think it’s pretty clear that the cabinet doesn’t have a clue what to do for the best. All that is certain is that with every option, they are considering it in terms of its impact to the Tory party, not the country.

Otherwise May would immediately announce to the country that she is revoking article 50 as she cannot get her deal passed, and no other option is left. Any responsible PM would have categorically ruled out No Deal.

ToBeFrank123

joe40 wrote: »

The Telegraph
(@Telegraph)
The front page of tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph: Boris Johnson: ‘We have blinked. We have baulked. We have bottled it completely. It is time for the PM to channel the spirit of Moses in Exodus, and say to Pharaoh in Brussels – LET MY PEOPLE GO’ pic.twitter.com/r0m99bgKme

March 24, 2019

Oh god if it wasn't so serious it would be hysterical. So according to Boris the EU is virtually holding the UK captive. FFS

He has no problem impoverishing his people it seems. When hundreds of thousands are made redundant after a Brexit crash-out, he will still have his job and that's the main thing in his eyes. He, like the ERG and DUP are living in the past.

LuckyLloyd

robinph wrote: »

I can't get my head around why MP's seem to be slightly more inclined towards the GE route than a second referendum? A GE and they are all in very risky situations for keeping their jobs, a second referendum and they can absolve themselves of the blame for whatever happens next as the people decided after they came up with the options, but they then get to carry on arguing about it and taking a salary for another three years.

A general election is what *should* happen (or have happened after the WA was initially defeated). We have a government that cannot pass primary policy pieces and a parliament that seems to lack consensus for any realistic way forward. This is exactly the type of scenario fog which General elections have been called throughout the history of UK politics.

briany

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

A general election is what *should* happen (or have happened after the WA was initially defeated). We have a government that cannot pass primary policy pieces and a parliament that seems to lack consensus for any realistic way forward. This is exactly the type of scenario fog which General elections have been called throughout the history of UK politics.

A GE might remove the DUP as balance holders, and that would be quite a positive development. However, it would also likely return a good number of hard-line Tories who are wont to be sympathetic to the DUP's views whether they hold the balance or not.

The main problems with a GE are that it's not guaranteed to return a significant shift in the status quo, and the EU are looking for definitive shifts in internal British politics at this stage. There's also a deeper problem - MPs are breaking the whip over Brexit left, right and centre. It's ideology that runs beneath party lines, rendering it less important what party would return with a majority.

Inquitus

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

A general election is what *should* happen (or have happened after the WA was initially defeated). We have a government that cannot pass primary policy pieces and a parliament that seems to lack consensus for any realistic way forward. This is exactly the type of scenario fog which General elections have been called throughout the history of UK politics.

We'll end up right back where we are unless Labour stands in a GE on the platform of holding a 2nd Referendum, that's the only way a GE can solve things, it would put Brexit front and center, giving the public a clear choice, if its just a Tory deal or Corbyn's deal then I think we'll just see the normal vote split.

Obviously they would also have to win that GE while handicapped with Mr Corbyn as their prospective PM. If the Tories elect a new Brexiteer leader one would hope he or she would be honest enough to stand on a "No Deal" platform, not an I can go back and renegotiate a "Cake and Unicorns Deal" platform.

AbusesToilets

I'm continually surprised that Corbyn has retained his leadership position. Surely a Labour party that weighed in fully behind Remaining would be likely to channel the general sentiment of the public into electoral support. They should have turfed him out months ago and pursued an aggressive campaign challenging the Tories.

Corbyn's blatantly cynical strategy to profit from the catastrophe of a No Deal exit is a disgrace.

Anteayer

joe40 wrote: »

The Telegraph
(@Telegraph)
The front page of tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph: Boris Johnson: ‘We have blinked. We have baulked. We have bottled it completely. It is time for the PM to channel the spirit of Moses in Exodus, and say to Pharaoh in Brussels – LET MY PEOPLE GO’ pic.twitter.com/r0m99bgKme

March 24, 2019

Oh god if it wasn't so serious it would be hysterical. So according to Boris the EU is virtually holding the UK captive. FFS

All this stuff is absolute nonsense. The UK's free to go anytime it wants. The issue is that there are practical consequences that nobody can mitigate for them. If they just drop out on Friday or April 12th that's it, they're gone. There'll be dire economic consequences and probably a major market event, but they're 100% free to do that. Nobody's going to stop them.

This rhetoric from the likes of Johnson is becoming (was always) ridiculous.

It's like hitting your head off a brick wall and then claiming the wall was out to get you.

Calltocall

The heckler on sky news must just camp out there, I have to say it’s hilarious when they are mid flow in conversation and out of nowhere you hear STOPPPP BREXITTTT, a dedicated remainer

Inquitus

No surprise here, so we wait for the Commons to take control, in so far as it is able to, this evening?

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1110199309084049408

Loafing Oaf

Calltocall wrote: »

The heckler on sky news must just camp out there, I have to say it’s hilarious when they are mid flow in conversation and out of nowhere you hear STOPPPP BREXITTTT, a dedicated remainer

I don't know why the British news channels feel they have to outside broadcast when covering these sorts of stories; it's a magnet for those elements.

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

As others have pointed out, after Moses told Pharaoh to "let my people go", the Israelites spent 40 years wandering in the desert living off scavenged bread, and relapsing into the worship of idols. Moses himself died during this period; indeed, the entire generation who left Egypt died in the desert and it was their children who brought the wandering to an end by invading the lands of Og and Sihon in what is now Jordan, and massacring the Midianites.

Good to know how Boris sees life in post-Brexit Britain!

The time wandering was a punishment by Moses for worshiping the golden calf - none of those who worshipped it would live to see the promised land.

The golden calf in this case has to be what - the withdrawal agreement?

Decades of pointless suffering for not being true believers in Brexit.

nc6000

May saying her deal is a compromise and "seems to deliver the result of the referendum." Interesting choice of words.

Inquitus

nc6000 wrote: »

May saying her deal is a compromise and "seems to deliver the result of the referendum." Interesting choice of words.

She needs to work on a Plan B, there is an outside chance she might get the WA through, but that path is well laid out and understood, pass a MV before End of Day April 11th. What to do if she is unable to do that is what needs to be worked on in these 3 weeks, so in the event it does not pass she has a way to move forwards, she seems to have come round to no deal not being a viable outcome, so FFS work across the aisles and come up with something, anything, that might avert disaster. A GE, A 2nd Referendum, not sure anything else is viable at this point, she won't revoke A50 or extend and do EU elections without a GE, and realistically A50 should not be revoked without the democratic mandate of a 2nd referendum with a remain outcome.

Corbyn seems to agree with me:

Jeremy Corbyn says the government’s approach to Brexit has become “a national embarrassment”.

He says last week’s EU summit was another negotiating failure for May.

He says she requested a short extension of article 50, even though David Lidington said that would be “reckless”.

He says it was “irresponsible” and “dangerous” for May to pit parliament against the people in her speech last week.

People are frustrated, he says. He says it is no surprise that people marched against the government. Even leavers are frustrated, he says.

He says May’s deal is dead.

He says May has united the CBI and the TUC against her deal.

He says it is time for parliament to take control. That is why Labour will back the Letwin amendment.

He says the speaker said there would have to be significant changes for a third meaningful vote. But there are no significant changes, she says.

He says May should not block attempts by MPs to find an alternative way forward.

Will May accept any decision by MPs?

He says Labour would support a public vote to block no deal or a chaotic Tory deal.

It is time for parliament to work together on a plan B, he says.

robinph

nc6000 wrote: »

May saying her deal is a compromise and "seems to deliver the result of the referendum." Interesting choice of words.

Well it's a result that nobody wanted, so fits with a 50/50 referendum result perfectly. They have just spent too long to realise that annoying everybody equally is not a way forward.

Hurrache

seamus wrote: »

It's not EU law until all 28 member parliaments have approved it; including the UK.
If the UK doesn't approve the extension agreement, it doesn't exist.

The UK's withdrawal bill included an amendment that allows the date to be extended by statutory instrument, which I expect would be done in parallel with approving the extension agreement.

A formality, perhaps. But until things are actually signed and done, I would taking nothing for granted from this UK parliament.

Hurrache wrote: »

I mentioned it a couple of time when it came up, I'm sure it doesn't need to go before parliament, it can be done by statutory instrument. There's been no discussion in parliament or amongst MPs that it should be put to a vote.

So here's the S.I., and according to this guy there will be a debate and vote around it. There's a discussion within the thread as to why there's a vote on it if it's a S.I.
https://twitter.com/ChrisJames_90/status/1110200485238226945

Headshot

What a fiery speech from SNP

devnull

Nail hit on the head

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1110206955690299393
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1110207564992692225

Honestly it's laughable that she's now saying that essentially she's going to ignore whatever happens if it doesn't suit her but has a track record of taking it seriously if it does, especially when she makes out she is doing this in order to help democracy, which is ridiculous.

Calltocall

Buckle up for a no deal

Leroy42

Is it really all just to try to keep the Tory party together, I honestly cannot see the justification for taking such a big jump into the unknown that a No Deal would bring. Whether or not it turns out as bad, worse or better than the projections, it is a massive gamble to take.

Is it really all down to the fact that TM hates immigration and the ERG, Johnson etc have so much control over her?

FrancieBrady

They are in a worse state of division than they have ever been.

Really don't know where this is going or if there is any point in continuing.

Valhallapt

What I don’t understand is why she is worried that a CU will split the party. Surely if the is a no deal Brexit, it will destroy the economy and make the tories unelectable for a couple decades. If she wants to preserve the Tory party she need to cut out the rot of the ERG now, otherwise they’ll never get elected again.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is it really all just to try to keep the Tory party together, I honestly cannot see the justification for taking such a big jump into the unknown that a No Deal would bring. Whether or not it turns out as bad, worse or better than the projections, it is a massive gamble to take.

Is it really all down to the fact that TM hates immigration and the ERG, Johnson etc have so much control over her?

TM is motivated about remaining as a PM first and foremost; anything else to that is secondary. Her hate for immigration steams from her previous failure to do anything about it and she's simply continuing the same track as before. However if she would get to remain as a PM if immigration flowed free she'd remain as a PM. In regards to ERG etc. it's a squeaky wheel scenario, ERG has actively threatened her position as a PM while remain has not; hence her focus remains to keep pleasing ERG to remain PM.

robinph

Reading the details on the BBC live feed of what is being argued about at the moment it is just purely more can kicking down the road until MP's finally relent and agree to her deal. Doesn't sound like there is any thought on any other option whatsoever, or even slightly considering any other compromise to find some way of agreeing on a course of action. Telling MPs that they can vote on a bunch of other things but she has already declared that she'll completely ignore everything that is voted for.

Was a mention from her of the 22nd May date for Brexit as well, but that isn't going to happen unless she comes up with a plan and I don't see how "we had some votes and I ignored them" counts as a valid plan to present to the EU on the 11th April.

RobertKK

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is it really all just to try to keep the Tory party together, I honestly cannot see the justification for taking such a big jump into the unknown that a No Deal would bring. Whether or not it turns out as bad, worse or better than the projections, it is a massive gamble to take.

Is it really all down to the fact that TM hates immigration and the ERG, Johnson etc have so much control over her?

Well Theresa was the minister who had British citizens of Jamaican origin removed from the UK. They arrived on the Windrush and were very much needed by the UK. Maybe their skin colour was too dark...
She has entertained the most extreme when it came to Brexit.
She hates foreigners, looked down on Ireland when she thought the EU would do likewise, but had to quickly retreat from that position.

She goes to church but clearly now doesn't love thy neighbour, and one could say that includes the Scots as well as the EU.

Anteayer

Don't forget her Go Home Vans and this is the same party that ran "are you thinking what we're thinking?..." (Insert mildly racist or xenophobic statement).

marno21

Valhallapt wrote: »

What I don’t understand is why she is worried that a CU will split the party. Surely if the is a no deal Brexit, it will destroy the economy and make the tories unelectable for a couple decades. If she wants to preserve the Tory party she need to cut out the rot of the ERG now, otherwise they’ll never get elected again.

Because Liam Fox and the other like minded charlatans won't get their super duper trade deal with the US and whatever other trade agreements the ERG dream of