Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

Yet the Govn't have said they will allow indicative votes later in the week. This is the Letwin motion which they have yet not decided to allow an open vote or whip it. Bizarre stuff.

devnull

Inquitus wrote: »

Very tight on the Letwin Amendment, Ministerial resignations required to tip it over the edge apparently, will May allow them a free vote, or a get out of jail free absention like last time when ruling out no deal?

She won't allow a free vote, no chance of that.

Inquitus

devnull wrote: »

She won't allow a free vote, no chance of that.

She let them abstain wihout having to resign on the ruling out "No Deal" vote in the chaos that evening, there was a lot of recrimination the next day! Collective responsibility and all that our auld pal Marc Francois was apoplectic!

Roger_007

Water John wrote: »

Yet the Govn't have said they will allow indicative votes later in the week. This is the Letwin motion which they have yet not decided to allow an open vote or whip it. Bizarre stuff.

Whips have become feather dusters these days.

Joe_ Public

I agree with Theresa May when she says there is no such thing as no deal, about the only thing i agree with her on. If you exit without any agreement, you still have to go negotiate a deal and you do so while chaos is spreading around the country, the pound is plummeting and there are food, fuel and medical supply shortages. Where is the hard brexiteers fabled “maximum leverage” in that scenario? Only hope would be for a p!ssed off european commission to take pity on them.

Sam Russell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I agree with Theresa May when she says there is no such thing as no deal, about the only thing i agree with her on. If you exit without any agreement, you still have to go negotiate a deal and you do so while chaos is spreading around the country, the pound is plummeting and there are food, fuel and medical supply shortages. Where is the hard brexiteers fabled “maximum leverage” in that scenario? Only hope would be for a p!ssed off european commission to take pity on them.

No chance of that.

The only stocks that there will not be short of after a No-Deal Brexit is laughing stocks.

gooch2k9

Remain ministers meeting May now.

I'll be very disappointed if they do not support Letwin based on promises from May. How many times can you fall for the same trick?

Capt'n Midnight

Channel 4 news. The UK's cunning plan for Brexit is to wave trucks through and allow importers to defer VAT payments for 6 months.

So open to fraud.

EU have said if there's a Hard Brexit they'll check the trucks heading the other way. Mostly empties it has to be said but still as the recent French customs and train actions have shown there'll be queues.

Water John

Letwin is being very open minded as to how the indicative votes under his motion could proceed. Deferring to Bercow to run it correctly and wisely.
Letwin has been a very loyal Con MP, so having to do this shows how desperate he feels things are.

bob mcbob

It seems that people are now preparing for the public inquiry that will follow this shambles

“In recent weeks there have been an increasing number of mentions in cabinet minutes about how Brexit has to be delivered for the sake of the Conservative party. That will be damning when the public inquiry into Brexit happens. The civil service are now finding ways of ensuring that the political decisions that are being taken will one day be fully understood.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/25/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-ahead-of-statement-to-mps-as-calls-for-her-resignation-continue-live-news

BobbyBobberson

bob mcbob wrote: »

It seems that people are now preparing for the public inquiry that will follow this shambles

“In recent weeks there have been an increasing number of mentions in cabinet minutes about how Brexit has to be delivered for the sake of the Conservative party. That will be damning when the public inquiry into Brexit happens. The civil service are now finding ways of ensuring that the political decisions that are being taken will one day be fully understood.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/25/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-ahead-of-statement-to-mps-as-calls-for-her-resignation-continue-live-news

Imagine how many years that will run for.

Capt'n Midnight

The self inflicted economic bad news continues.

Tourism to the UK was down 4% and spending was down 7% at £22.7Bn


Meanwhile we had another record year.

1.2 million people will have visited the island of Ireland - that is an increase of 6% on 2017.

It is thought the spend by these visitors during 2018 will be €6.1bn - up 10% on last year.

What other reason is there for the difference apart from Brexit ?

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The self inflicted economic bad news continues.

Tourism to the UK was down 4% and spending was down 7% at £22.7Bn


Meanwhile we had another record year.


What other reason is there for the difference apart from Brexit ?

That's true and every sane person can see this and the total folly of brexit except theresa"I live in an alternative universe"may and the rest of the 19th century brigade

Spanish Eyes

What the chuff are they voting on later please. My brain is totally fried now.

I said earlier to a friend that revoke might just happen now. No dice said he.

It is just awful that this momentous issue is down to protecting the Tories, not the good of the people of the UK at all. Take note, I did NOT mention the will of the people...

Loafing Oaf

RobMc59 wrote: »

That's true and every sane person can see this and the total folly of brexit except theresa"I live in an alternative universe"may and the rest of the 19th century brigade

May voted remain. I'm sure in her heart of hearts she can see Brexit is a massive act of national self-harm just as clearly as everybody else. But what can she do?

Inquitus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

What the chuff are they voting on later please. My brain is totally fried now.

I said earlier to a friend that revoke might just happen now. No dice said he.

It is just awful that this momentous issue is down to protecting the Tories, not the good of the people of the UK at all. Take note, I did NOT mention the will of the people...

They are voting on a series of 3 amendments to a neutral Brexit motion:

5:51PM
And finally, Amendment (f). This has been tabled by Margaret Beckett, and is supported by Anna Soubry:

At end, add “and orders that, in the event that the UK comes within seven calendar days of leaving the European Union without a deal, the Government must make arrangements within two sitting days, or if this House has been adjourned for more than four days to arrange for the House to be recalled under Standing Order No. 13 (Earlier meeting of the House in certain circumstances) for this purpose, for a Minister of the Crown to move a motion on whether this House approves the UK leaving the EU without a deal and on whether the UK Government should be required to request an extension of the period in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit and to give time for Parliament to determine a different approach.”

5:48PM
Here’s Amendment (a), tabled by Tory MP Sir Oliver Letwin, and known as the Letwin amendment. In short, it calls for a series of indicative votes to take place on Wednesday.

It doesn’t specify what options will be voted on, or how the votes will take place. It should be added that Theresa May wouldn’t be bound by the result of any of these votes, but if she were to go against the majority in the House of Commons, it could spark the DUP to collapse her government.

This is the start of the lengthy amendment:

At end, add “and, given the need for the House to debate and vote on alternative ways forward, with a view to the Government putting forward a plan for the House to debate and vote on, orders that –

(a) Standing Order No. 14(1) (which provides that government business shall have precedence at every sitting save as provided in that order) shall not apply on Wednesday 27 March;

5:43PM
Here’s Amendment (d), by the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn:

“Line 1, leave out from “House” to end and add “notes the Government’s Withdrawal Agreement and Framework for the Future Relationship have been defeated for a second time; further notes the alternative proposals being proposed across this House including Her Majesty’s Opposition’s plan, Common Market 2.0, for a customs union, and for a public vote; and calls on the Government to provide sufficient parliamentary time this week for this House to find a majority for a different approach.”

Spanish Eyes

Inquitus wrote: »

They are voting on a series of 3 amendments to a neutral Brexit motion:

Thank you very much, appreciate you taking the time to help me get my head in gear!

Letwin is the important one I think. Although from what I have been reading it seems that May could ignore the results of indicatives too.

No wonder my head's all over the place.

FrancieBrady

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Thank you very much, appreciate you taking the time to help me get my head in gear!

Letwin is the important one I think. Although from what I have been reading it seems that May could ignore the results of indicatives too.

No wonder my head's all over the place.

She said as much when asked about indicative votes in the HOC today.

MadYaker

They can't revoke article 50 with a people's vote and there's no time for that before April 12th (is there?) as it stands my money is on a no deal brexit.

funkey_monkey

The Amendments Breakdown (Courtesy of /u/bothbawlz) in plain English :


Amendment (a)

SELECTED

Sir Oliver Letwin, Mr Dominic Grieve, Hilary Benn, Norman Lamb, Stewart Hosie, Ben Lake, etc.

Indicative votes on Wednesday the 27th of March.


Amendment (b)*

Will Quince, Dame Cheryl Gillan, Nigel Dodds, Stephen McPartland, Graham Stringer, Frank Field, etc.

Honour the result of the referendum and leave the EU.


Amendment (c)

Yvette Cooper, Sir Oliver Letwin, Dame Caroline Spelman, Jack Dromey, Norman Lamb, Liz Kendall etc.

Notes that the Commons rejected leaving the EU without a deal, and that the government promised to honour that vote. Instructs the government that if the Withdrawal Deal isn't approved by the Commons by the 28th of March 2019, for the government to explain how they'll ensure that we don't leave on the 12th of April without an agreement (no deal), which includes asking for an extension.


Amendment (d)

SELECTED

Jeremy Corbyn, Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry, Rebecca Long Bailey, Valerie Vaz, Mr Nicholas Brown.

Notes the government's bill has been defeated twice, there are various other approaches, and calls on the government to provide time for the House to work through those approaches.


Amendment (e)

Anna Soubry, Chuka Umunna, Mr Chris Leslie, Dr Sarah Wollaston, Heidi Allen, Mike Gapes, ect.

Have a second referendum with the choice of remaining in the EU, and another choice to be determined by the Commons.


Amendment (f)

SELECTED

Margaret Beckett, Mr George Howarth, Chris Bryant, Kate Green, Joanna Cherry, Sir Edward Davey, ect.

If we come within seven days of leaving the EU without a deal, the government must within a few days bring a motion to the Commons asking if the Commons approves leaving without a deal. If the Commons doesn't approve leaving without a deal, the government must give Parliament time to decide a different approach.


Amendment (g)

Tom Brake, Sir Vince Cable, Jo Swinson, Mr Alistair Carmichael, Sir Edward Davey, Tim Farron etc.

Seek an A50 extension of two years to hold a referendum: May's Deal vs Remain.

Spanish Eyes

MadYaker wrote: »

They can't revoke article 50 with a people's vote and there's no time for that before April 12th (is there?) as it stands my money is on a no deal brexit.

I thought some EU court ruling recently stated that UK could unilaterally revoke A50 without having to get the remaining 27 members to agree.

What I am not sure about is, can TM revoke on her own as PM, or does revoke need to go to a vote in HoC?

Anyone know?

Inquitus

MadYaker wrote: »

They can't revoke article 50 with a people's vote and there's no time for that before April 12th (is there?) as it stands my money is on a no deal brexit.

May won't countenance a People's Vote without a GE from what she has said on the matter, if we go down that path she'll have to announce a GE, go to the EU and extend A50 til at least the end of the year, have the GE and see if the new Parliament wants to pursue a 2nd Referendum. This will also require the UK to host EU elections in May.

Inquitus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I thought some EU court ruling recently stated that UK could unilaterally revoke A50 without having to get the remaining 27 members to agree.

What I am not sure about is, can TM revoke on her own as PM, or does revoke need to go to a vote in HoC?

Anyone know?

They can revoke A50 anytime, it's not clear if May could do it on her own, or it would require a vote affirming same in the HoC, that's a matter of legal conjecture. I don't personally think its feasible to revoke A50 without a mandate from a 2nd referendum, but it is absolutely legally possible to do so.

MadYaker

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I thought some EU court ruling recently stated that UK could unilaterally revoke A50 without having to get the remaining 27 members to agree.

What I am not sure about is, can TM revoke on her own as PM, or does revoke need to go to a vote in HoC?

Anyone know?

They can revoke article 50 whenever they want. But there was referendum in 2016 which the leave vote won and although it wasn't legally binding that can't really be simply disregarded in a democracy. There's still a huge amount of support in the house of commons for brexit and not that many people talking about revoking. Which is kind of amazing when you think about it considering there is definitely a large amount of support for it publicly. I'm amazed that Jeremy Corbyn and labour haven't made themselves the remainer party and done everything in their power to stop brexit.

BobbyBobberson

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1110267826600845312

Is JRM and ERG about to throw DUP under the bus? "Well we would have backed Brexit if the DUP had. It is their fault it did not happen"??

Joe_ Public

MadYaker wrote: »

They can revoke article 50 whenever they want. But there was referendum in 2016 which the leave vote won and although it wasn't legally binding that can't really be simply disregarded in a democracy. There's still a huge amount of support in the house of commons for brexit and not that many people talking about revoking. Which is kind of amazing when you think about it considering there is definitely a large amount of support for it publicly. I'm amazed that Jeremy Corbyn and labour haven't made themselves the remainer party and done everything in their power to stop brexit.

Because as said many times Corbyn is not just weak and a ditherer, but quite likely a staunch leaver himself. Where the pm just cares about retaining power at all costs, Corbyn has only a mind for elections. It has been the uk’s terrible misfortune that at such a time of need, the two main parties had the weakest leaders we’ve seen in several generations.

Inquitus

Gov to whip against the amendments:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1110276794823905280

MadYaker

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Because as said many times Corbyn is not just weak and a ditherer, but quite likely a staunch leaver himself. Where the pm just cares about retaining power at all costs, Corbyn has only a mind for elections. It has been the uk’s terrible misfortune that at such a time of need, the two main parties had the weakest leaders we’ve seen in several generations.

If he only cares about elections then why isn't he pushing for remain? Brexit is an unmitigated disaster by the current government and his current position gets him no political capital whatsoever. Theres clearly close to 50% of the population who would support this, maybe more not to mention plenty in his own party. He's a moron.

Inquitus

Seems May has bought off the remainers in the Cabinet, with weak guarantees and knowing their lack of moral fibre, so we can likely expect the Letwin motion to go down very narrowly, and as Ian Dunt says "pitiful".

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1110279865499037697

gooch2k9

Inquitus wrote: »

Seems May has bought off the remainers in the Cabinet, with weak guarantees and knowing their lack of moral fibre, so we can likely expect the Letwin motion to go down very narrowly, and as Ian Dunt says "pitiful".

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1110279865499037697

As culpable for putting party before country as any Brexit supporting MP. Not surprising at all.

Some of the MPs speaking during the debate(in a near empty chamber) are quite impressive. Lisa Nandy was taking no **** from the government bench.