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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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    #3362
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,421 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I think they were saying on Sky panel that she had only a working majority of 4.


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    #3363
    PropJoe10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,299 ✭✭✭PropJoe10


    Headshot wrote: »
    I wonder is just a matter if time before the Government collapses


    They're hardly even a government at this stage. May has no control over her own party and can't really even afford to fire rebellious ministers. It's an unprecedented situation.


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    #3364
    bilston
    Registered Users Posts: 17,802 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Sky News contributors think a general election is looking a lot more likely


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    #3365
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,713 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    bilston wrote: »
    Sky News contributors think a general election is looking a lot more likely

    That'd have to come with an extension from the EU side. Wonder what manifesto the Tories would run on. "Strong and Stable" needs to be retired methinks.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #3366
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    bilston wrote: »
    Sky News contributors think a general election is looking a lot more likely

    I wish the Tories the very best of luck in agreeing a manifesto.


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    #3367
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    30 Rebels on the Letwin vote, including Damian Green, according to Sky News.


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    #3368
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,399 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    PropJoe10 wrote: »
    They're hardly even a government at this stage. May has no control over her own party and can't really even afford to fire rebellious ministers. It's an unprecedented situation.

    The brexiters may force a general election now as they see the dream slipping away.


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    #3369
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,713 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    I wish the Tories the very best of luck in agreeing a manifesto.

    If you're in the mood for a dose of irony, the last one was penned by Nick Timothy and Ben Gumner with no input from MP's or ministers. You had the likes of Jeremy Hunt not knowing what was there for the NHS until the release. Doesn't seem like such a bad idea in hindsight.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #3370
    Patser
    Registered Users Posts: 8,031 ✭✭✭Patser


    bilston wrote: »
    Sky News contributors think a general election is looking a lot more likely

    Maybe, but they were making a counterpoint that to go to a General Election now, would mean having to campaign with May still as leader, with May's deal still as their prime campaign point (and with the ERG having to stand behind it, or tear the Tories apart) and as a party in disarray. More likely IMO they'll buy time, possibly even Revoke before calling a GE, so they can sort themselves out


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    #3371
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,307 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    I wish the Tories the very best of luck in agreeing a manifesto.
    Labour sucks; Free economy is better than communism; Corbyn would lead to disaster.

    Now spin it a few times and keep it high level and you're gold. Don't mention Brexit, DUP or May of course. That's how I'd expect it would be spun; high level on things everyone can agree on with some vague NHS improvements etc. thrown in to ensure it sounds good and proper. Call it "Allowing candidates to listen to their constituencies concerns on Brexit" or something similarly noble as an excuse to why it's not included.


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    #3372
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,421 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Brexiteers will be moving to TMs Deal as it's the best on offer for them at this point.


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    #3373
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    The brexiters may force a general election now as they see the dream slipping away.

    Yeah, it looks very like straw-clutching. Given the Tory rebellions tonight, No Deal is almost certainly a non-runner.


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    #3374
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Beckett's amendment result

    Ayes 311
    Noes 314

    REJECTED


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    #3375
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 54,292 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Oh wow that is a big of a shocker there for Beckett Amendment


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    #3376
    Westernyelp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,372 ✭✭✭Westernyelp


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Or the soft brexiteers/remainers will feel emboldened to push for revoke/2nd referendum.

    That's exactly why I think the Brexiteers will cave, they see Brexit slipping away entirely, or at least getting a lot softer.

    I hope it's revoked ppersonally.


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    #3377
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,754 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    We still have to see Letwin get through as the main motion.


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    #3378
    Patser
    Registered Users Posts: 8,031 ✭✭✭Patser


    Beckett loses, that means No deal is till a risk. That might actually undermine May further as ERG and DUP know that keeping up their shenanigans might lead to an accidental crash out


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    #3379
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,786 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I didn't realise there'd be votes tonight. What did I miss so far?


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    #3380
    Junkyard Tom
    Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    Can we now be confident that a 'No Deal' crash-out will not happen?


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    #3381
    PropJoe10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,299 ✭✭✭PropJoe10


    I thought that was it. What are they voting on now?


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    #3382
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Nody wrote: »
    Labour sucks; Free economy is better than communism; Corbyn would lead to disaster.

    Now spin it a few times and keep it high level and you're gold. Don't mention Brexit, DUP or May of course. That's how I'd expect it would be spun; high level on things everyone can agree on with some vague NHS improvements etc. thrown in to ensure it sounds good and proper. Call it "Allowing candidates to listen to their constituencies concerns on Brexit" or something similarly noble as an excuse to why it's not included.

    They could try that but Brexit is the new EastEnders/Coronation Street so everyone has a strong opinion and everyone has an interest. The GE will have to be fought on Brexit not least because it would be the cause of the GE.


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    #3383
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Headshot wrote: »
    Oh wow that is a big of a shocker there for Beckett Amendment

    All i can think of to explain this, is that most of the tories who broke the whip last time did so because they want a no deal?


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    #3384
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Junkyard Tom wrote: »
    Can we now be confident that a 'No Deal' crash-out will not happen?

    I can't see it happening.


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    #3385
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    PropJoe10 wrote: »
    I thought that was it. What are they voting on now?

    The original motion as ammended by Letwin


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    #3386
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 54,292 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Akrasia wrote: »
    All i can think of to explain this, is that most of the tories who broke the whip last time did so because they want a no deal?

    Ya Tories still want that threat of No Deal on the table


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    #3387
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,838 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Inquitus wrote: »
    We still have to see Letwin get through as the main motion.
    Explain please?


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    #3388
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,713 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Junkyard Tom wrote: »
    Can we now be confident that a 'No Deal' crash-out will not happen?

    Not in my opinion. It's still the default unless Parliament can at least agree on an extension with the EU the prerequisite of which is a new plan, ie second referendum, a large extension or general election in decreasing order of my preferences.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #3389
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Explain please?

    The first vote tonight was just to add Letwin as an amendment.

    Now voting on the main motion with amendment added.


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    #3390
    Spook_ie
    Registered Users Posts: 10,896 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    I'd wager no general election being run on a stay or leave manifesto, just like the last one people will vote for taxation, pensions and local issues.


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    #3391
    BobbyBobberson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    If you're in the mood for a dose of irony, the last one was penned by Nick Timothy and Ben Gumner with no input from MP's or ministers. You had the likes of Jeremy Hunt not knowing what was there for the NHS until the release. Doesn't seem like such a bad idea in hindsight.

    Did you read any of Tim Shipman's books by any chance? I think I read the above in that but I cant quite remember. His third book will be bloody huge.


This discussion has been closed.
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