Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Eod100

Talk of an election. Seems a risky strategy especially after the last one. Dunno where that would leave the deadlines too.

A Dub in Glasgo

awec wrote: »

She has to be finished now. Surely we’ll all wake up tomorrow to a resignation.

So is May

Junkyard Tom

This 'losing Brexit' 'Brexit being stolen' language is extremely dangerous.

woohoo!!!

ERG have a choice now, back her deal or an election. Either way no deal is dead and the big red bus is about to run over the DUP in the form of a NI only backstop.

Itssoeasy

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

This 'losing Brexit' 'Brexit being stolen' language is extremely dangerous.

I've heard what happened tonight in the HoC as being a coup. I mean that's very dangerous words to be throwing about.

Spook_ie

woohoo!!! wrote: »

ERG have a choice now, back her deal or an election. Either way no deal is dead and the big red bus is about to run over the DUP in the form of a NI only backstop.

No deal isn't dead, it's still the default position, full on nightmare that like the scenes in Tora,Tora Tora where the ambassador was late in the declaration of war, that the HoC will end up delivering a decision an hour or two after the deadline

Junkyard Tom

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I've heard what happened tonight in the HoC as being a coup. I mean that's very dangerous words to be throwing about.

When, in reality, it's an attempt to wrest control away from an extremist faction of disaster capitalists within the Tory Party.

Professor Moriarty

Headshot wrote: »

Nope that woman wont go anywhere, she's far to stubborn and I rather not see the ****ing of likes of Boris in power

Expect to see dozens of Tory defections if Boris became PM.

woohoo!!!

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

This 'losing Brexit' 'Brexit being stolen' language is extremely dangerous.

I've heard what happened tonight in the HoC as being a coup. I mean that's very dangerous words to be throwing about.

That's the sound of them realising that the game is up.

woohoo!!!

Spook_ie wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

ERG have a choice now, back her deal or an election. Either way no deal is dead and the big red bus is about to run over the DUP in the form of a NI only backstop.

No deal isn't dead, it's still the default position, full on nightmare that like the scenes in Tora,Tora Tora where the ambassador was late in the declaration of war, that the HoC will end up delivering a decision an hour or two after the deadline

Let's just say it's on life support.

joe40

Two things I have been wondering about.
1 Are the events this evening unprecedented in Westminster, or has this happened before where MPs take charge of business for a time.

2 If there is a general election will labour be able to come up with a unified approach to Brexit, and will that be another referendum, or accept the 2016 vote but campaign for softer brexit interpretation of that vote.

It is crazy times. I hope no deal is dead but it is still the default position.

BobbyBobberson

You know what does pop into my head sometimes, is the amount of sliding door moments Brexit has had.

I particularly think about it during all these votes. Imagine if Gina Miller had not bothered her arse with the court case, the deal could be done now. Or had May not taken to the hills of Wales to decide on the GE in 2017. Also one of the main men behind Brexit survived a plane crash. All utterly pointless thoughts I admit :P

Eod100

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

This 'losing Brexit' 'Brexit being stolen' language is extremely dangerous.

I agree it's dangerous language but think unless a referendum to remain was passed, its inevitable that people would feel 'betrayed'

Laois_Man

MV3 needs 318 votes to pass

If they had the support of all 311 Tory's who are eligible to vote, plus the 7 non Torys who supported MV2, they hit it bang on!

It's probably likely that there'd always be 1 or 2 Tory's who still won't support it. But it's just as likely that that more non-Tory MPs will decide to support it.

However, given tonight's events, it's more unclear than ever to me if MV3 will even happen.

Junkyard Tom

Eod100 wrote: »

a referendum to remain was passed

Would that not be just a different version of the 'theft' of Brexit?

Eod100

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Would that not be just a different version of the 'theft' of Brexit?

It may be to those on the extreme but a new referendum would take precedent.

Thing is a mess, original referendum was advisory. Keep hearing about the 17.4m who voted to leave, what about the 16.1m who voted to stay? And the 1m protesting and the 5.5m who signed the revoke petition.

It was always going to be so decisive with the leave side winning by such a small margin. But surely there's still more who voted to remain than who wanted a hard or no deal Brexit?

Shelga

One thing I don’t really understand why the support of the DUP is so important. I know it’s a confidence and supply agreement they have with the Tories, but isn’t this of less importance than a coalition? And there are only 10 of them- why is getting them to support the deal more important than, say, 10 random Remainer Tories who haven’t voted for it so far?

A second thing I don’t get is why parliament deciding the order of the voting on Wednesday is such a massive deal, don’t they get to do that every 3rd Friday or something already? It sounds like it’s a few hours where the house will have open voting on parliamentary matters. Why so important?

Laois_Man

Shelga wrote: »

One thing I don’t really understand why the support of the DUP is so important. I know it’s a confidence and supply agreement they have with the Tories, but isn’t this of less importance than a coalition? And there are only 10 of them- why is getting them to support the deal more important than, say, 10 random Remainer Tories who haven’t voted for it so far?

A second thing I don’t get is why parliament deciding the order of the voting on Wednesday is such a massive deal, don’t they get to do that every 3rd Friday or something already? It sounds like it’s a few hours where the house will have open voting on parliamentary matters. Why so important?

The first question: Their confidence and supply agreement isn't confidence and supply if the DUP aren't supplying the votes - May lost MV2 by 149, not 10.

The second question: It's rather a big deal to the cabinet is they cannot strategically decide upon the next steps....which up to this point has been to play down the clock and set an order of business that maximizes their chances of getting WA thru.

Kermit.de.frog

Laois_Man wrote: »

MV3 needs 318 votes to pass

If they had the support of all 311 Tory's who are eligible to vote, plus the 7 non Torys who supported MV2, they hit it bang on!

Without the DUP?

Shelga

Laois_Man wrote: »

The first question: Their confidence and supply agreement isn't confidence and supply if the DUP aren't supplying the votes - May lost MV2 by 149, not 10.

The second question: It's rather a big deal to the cabinet is they cannot strategically decide upon the next steps....which up to this point has been to play down the clock and set an order of business that maximizes their chances of getting WA thru.

Thanks, I thought that about the confidence and supply agreement. But at the same time, they’ve voted against the WA twice and it hasn’t exactly brought down the government, so what difference does it make on a practical level? Is it yet another thing that would mean something if we weren’t living through the Brexit cluster****, where all bets are off?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

What has actually happened tonight in layman's terms?

Will May resign, will there be another referendum for brexit, will there be a no deal Brexit.

Panrich

Pheonix10 wrote: »

What has actually happened tonight in layman's terms?

Will May resign, will there be another referendum for brexit, will there be a no deal Brexit.

It's all up in the air tonight. Nobody knows where we go from here. I even see mad Brexiteers like Aaron Banks saying that remain is a better option than Mays deal.

Gael23

How can Theresa May remain in office? She has lost authority and must now go.

FrancieBrady

Panrich wrote: »

It's all up in the air tonight. Nobody knows where we go from here. I even see mad Brexiteers like Aaron Banks saying that remain is a better option than Mays deal.

Whatever the outcome -Remain - or deal - no Deal - or extension, this has a long way to run for British politics. It will continue to tear itself asunder whatever the outcome of the next few weeks.

Joe_ Public

Not sure today brings us a huge deal closer to answering the key questions. Still a lot of flux.

Parliament has, theoretically, taken control of the process from the executive and will stage a series of votes on Wednesday to see if a consensus route can be found and taken back to the eu for further discussion (by the pm herself presumably).

But those votes aren’t binding, so pm could - if she dared - ignore them. Would anyone put it past her at this stage?

Today’s events have also pushed the erg wing closer to supporting the WA so the pm’s deal, if still struggling, is at the very least still alive.

Don’t know if I’m interpreting all that correctly, but not sure we’ve moved on very far from that.

Laois_Man

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Without the DUP?

Yes. There were 4 independents and 3 Labour MPs who voted for MV2. They can get MV3 thru without the DUP if all Tory's support it.

However, it would be the last thing the Government would ever get thru as the DUP will never vote with them again and an imminent general election would be guaranteed.

Laois_Man

Shelga wrote: »

Thanks, I thought that about the confidence and supply agreement. But at the same time, they’ve voted against the WA twice and it hasn’t exactly brought down the government, so what difference does it make on a practical level? Is it yet another thing that would mean something if we weren’t living through the Brexit cluster****, where all bets are off?

In normal times, this government would have collapsed about 4 times in the last 4 months or so. But these are not normal times.

Gael23 wrote: »

How can Theresa May remain in office? She has lost authority and must now go.

I keep saying it, Teresa May's job is 100% safe until somebody else actually wants it - and until withdrawal is in effect, nobody wants it!

WhiteMan32

WhiteMan32

am i bovvered

It’s a complete mess.
One possible solution that I have not read anywhere would be to hold a referendum in N Ireland asking if they would like to have the backstop in the Irish Sea.

I believe this would pass, creating a solution to many of the issues for the deal.