Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

am i bovvered wrote: »

It’s a complete mess.
One possible solution that I have not read anywhere would be to hold a referendum in N Ireland asking if they would like to have the backstop in the Irish Sea.

I believe this would pass, creating a solution to many of the issues for the deal.

The DUP could never go with that. The vote itself treats NI as different, never mind the result.

Also, there would be massive outcry that NI effectively gets a 2nd Ref whilst GB does not (Scotland would go mad) and all that before we even consider that a region with 1.5m people get to have the final say on Brexit.

woohoo!!!

So there is this impending critical decision looming and the lads are still trading insults and the government are whining about precedent of their control being snatched away for a day. Clueless is too kind.

Akrasia

What were those 8 labour MPs thinking?

Seriously. Why dont they just leave the Labour party and join the tories at this point.

Its turning into an american style congress now, where party whips are totally ineffectual (except when accompanied by pork barrell bribes to pursuade their own party members to vote along party lines)

Peregrinus

Akrasia wrote: »

What were those 8 labour MPs thinking?

Seriously. Why dont they just leave the Labour party and join the tories at this point.

Its turning into an american style congress now, where party whips are totally ineffectual (except when accompanied by pork barrell bribes to pursuade their own party members to vote along party lines)

Party discipline is under pressure for three reasons (only one of which has anything to do with Brexit).

First, both major parties are backing brexit, but probably a growing majority of the electorate favours remain. This frustrates remainer voters; neither major party is articulating their position, and they see no viable voting option for giving effect to it. My guess is that MPs of both parties are getting a lot of fairly angry blowback from voters who feel their position is being marginalised by the system. That makes MPs even in what would ordinarily be safe seats feel very nervous, and makes them think that slavish adherence to the party line may not quite guarantee the job security that it used to.

Secondly, in recent years both parties have switched to leader-election systems in which the party rank and file, rather than parliamentary party, has the ultimate say. This makes possible a wider gap between the policies/positions of the party leaders and the views/wishes/feelings of the parliamentary party. Leaders are freer to ignore what the parliamentary party wants, but that cuts both ways; the more the leaders do that, the less commitment backbench MPs will feel to the party position dictated by the leader.

Thirdly, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that rebellion is much less likely to trigger a general election than it used to be. Since a general electionis the thing MPs hate most, this lowers the "cost" to MPs of rebellion, and so they are more likely to rebel.

Roger_007

Akrasia wrote: »

What were those 8 labour MPs thinking?

Seriously. Why dont they just leave the Labour party and join the tories at this point.

Its turning into an american style congress now, where party whips are totally ineffectual (except when accompanied by pork barrell bribes to pursuade their own party members to vote along party lines)

I see that Kate Hoey is one the 8 Labour MPs who voted with the Government. I can't imagine why she's in Labour anyway. Her political ideology is further right than Atilla the Hun.

Enzokk

Akrasia wrote: »

What were those 8 labour MPs thinking?

Seriously. Why dont they just leave the Labour party and join the tories at this point.

Its turning into an american style congress now, where party whips are totally ineffectual (except when accompanied by pork barrell bribes to pursuade their own party members to vote along party lines)

Some of them will actively be pursuing Brexit, some are trying to save their seats at the next election. They are in Leave constituencies and will be thinking if they vote for Brexit they will still get re-elected. I have a ton more respect for Soubry, who with a small majority of only 863 is doing what she thinks is best for her voters even if they don't agree with her. She is prepared to face them in a new election and to explain her decision.

Caroline Flint has been consistently voting for Brexit because her constituency voted to Leave. Kate Hoey has ignored her voters and gone against their wishes, even when her constituency voted Remain by a larger margin.

Jess Philipps on the other hand has also said she is willing to face her voters and is going against their will as well, although it was very close in the referendum in Birmingham.

VinLieger

Enzokk wrote: »

Some of them will actively be pursuing Brexit, some are trying to save their seats at the next election. They are in Leave constituencies and will be thinking if they vote for Brexit they will still get re-elected. I have a ton more respect for Soubry, who with a small majority of only 863 is doing what she thinks is best for her voters even if they don't agree with her. She is prepared to face them in a new election and to explain her decision.

Caroline Flint has been consistently voting for Brexit because her constituency voted to Leave. Kate Hoey has ignored her voters and gone against their wishes, even when her constituency voted Remain by a larger margin.

Jess Philipps on the other hand has also said she is willing to face her voters and is going against their will as well, although it was very close in the referendum in Birmingham.

The difference between Jess Philips and Kate Hoey is Jess Philips knows Brexit will absolutely fvck her constituency in every conceivable way and is working as hard as she can to prevent that happening even if it disagrees with her constituents referendum result which lets be honest is what any responsible elected representative should also be doing, Kate Hoey on the other hand is an troglodytic ideologue who doesn't give a sh1t as to the consequences as long as she gets her way

prawnsambo

Roger_007 wrote: »

I see that Kate Hoey is one the 8 Labour MPs who voted with the Government. I can't imagine why she's in Labour anyway. Her political ideology is further right than Atilla the Hun.

Kate Hoey's constituency has also one of the highest percentages signing the Revoke Article 50 petition. Something like 30% of the elctorate.

EKRIUQ

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The sun are reporting according to LBC that JRM and Ian Duncan Smith have said they will back the WA if Theresa May lays out a timetable for her stepping down as PM.

Is the reasoning for this so that they can take control of the trade deal being created in the next 2 years and then make huge demands that will go against the WA and turn the next 2 years into another huge mess?

Joe_ Public

EKRIUQ wrote: »

Is the reasoning for this so that they can take control of the trade deal being created in the next 2 years and then make huge demands that will go against the WA and turn the next 2 years into another huge mess?

Would appear to be the size of it. WA passes, Pm steps down and it’s the Boris show. Not much else they can do save developing a conscience and we know that ain’t gonna happen.

FrancieBrady

It is a sign of the chaotic times the UK is going through that somebody with Letwin's history is now the potential saviour.

Joe_ Public

The madness is that the pm loses control of the process and somehow this means her despised deal actually inches closer to success. Forget logic, these are not rational times.

robinph

prawnsambo wrote: »

Kate Hoey's constituency has also one of the highest percentages signing the Revoke Article 50 petition. Something like 30% of the elctorate.

She's currently on a mere 19.5% of her constituency having signed the petition.

Leading the way is Bristol West at 25.3% followed by Brighton at 24.9%. Other than London the other hotspots for signing are Cambridge, Edinburgh, Glasgow and a bit around Manchester and Birmingham.

Professor Moriarty

EKRIUQ wrote: »

Is the reasoning for this so that they can take control of the trade deal being created in the next 2 years and then make huge demands that will go against the WA and turn the next 2 years into another huge mess?

Exactly. That's their plan as they see Brexit disappearing over the horizon. A slight problem for them is that the likes of Raab or Boris being appointed PM would see a plethora of Tory defections. This would eventually lead to a GE fought by a fragmented Tory party with an incoherent manifesto. So it's all good news.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exactly. That's their plan as they see Brexit disappearing over the horizon. A slight problem for them is that the likes of Raab or Boris being appointed PM would see a plethora of Tory defections. This would eventually lead to a GE fought by a fragmented Tory party with an incoherent manifesto. So it's all good news.

I really doubt it. People simply do not defect from the Tory party in large numbers, and as has been previously discussed the FPTP system argues against it except in the rarest of cases.

TM is being treated as if her dedication to the Tories above the country is somehow strange, when in fact it is perfectly in line with the norm. It is just that the gap between the two is wider than normal in the case of Brexit.

How many defected when he ran for mayor, or led the leave campaign, or was made Foreign Secretary? If he gets voted in , the MP's will simply say that they are against it but that is democracy and they are willing to get behind their new leader.

mikep

All the chaos shows that when it comes to negotiating a trade deal post brexit the fantasy is really going to become the UKs worst nightmare...I didn't think it could get much worse..

I'd say the EU would love to see Boris arriving in to lead a delegation to discuss trade..Or Corbyn or Raab or whatever looper takes over in the ensuing calamity..

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really doubt it. People simply do not defect from the Tory party in large numbers, and as has been previously discussed the FPTP system argues against it except in the rarest of cases.

TM is being treated as if her dedication to the Tories above the country is somehow strange, when in fact it is perfectly in line with the norm. It is just that the gap between the two is wider than normal in the case of Brexit.

How many defected when he ran for mayor, or led the leave campaign, or was made Foreign Secretary? If he gets voted in , the MP's will simply say that they are against it but that is democracy and they are willing to get behind their new leader.

In usual circumstances, party loyalty would take primacy. However, these are extraordinary times. There are dozens of Tory MPs who would refuse to support Boris and a Boris cabinet. Primarily for ideological reasons - there are many intelligent Tory MPs - but also because of the shift away from Leave amongst voters.

Roger_007

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really doubt it. People simply do not defect from the Tory party in large numbers, and as has been previously discussed the FPTP system argues against it except in the rarest of cases.

TM is being treated as if her dedication to the Tories above the country is somehow strange, when in fact it is perfectly in line with the norm. It is just that the gap between the two is wider than normal in the case of Brexit.

How many defected when he ran for mayor, or led the leave campaign, or was made Foreign Secretary? If he gets voted in , the MP's will simply say that they are against it but that is democracy and they are willing to get behind their new leader.

Ironically both Labour and the Tories have the same problem when it comes to selecting their leader. They have both gone down the road of giving the party membership a much greater say in the selection and reduce the role of the elected MPs. Labour have gone much further in this direction than the Tories.
Superficially this appears to make the process more democratic. In fact it does nothing of the sort. The membership are only a tiny minority of the electorate while the MPs represent the general voting public.
Corbyn may be very popular with the Labour party membership and Boris may be popular with the Tory party membership, but that does not make them popular with the voters or even with their own MPs.
If both parties continue down this road the inevitable outcome will be that party leaders will become more at odds with their own MPs and we will see more and more of the chaos that we see now.
Brexit is not the cause of the chaos, it has simply exposed the flaws in the British political structures.

Water John

JRM now wants to vote for TMs Deal. Trouble is all those troops he led to the top of the hill may not want to march down again.

Joe_ Public

This conservative politician actually speaking up for Theresa May on sky right now. She’s the best person to negotiate with the eu, apparently, because she knows all the people involved and how to deal with them. Really?

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

She's currently on a mere 19.5% of her constituency having signed the petition.

Leading the way is Bristol West at 25.3% followed by Brighton at 24.9%. Other than London the other hotspots for signing are Cambridge, Edinburgh, Glasgow and a bit around Manchester and Birmingham.

Yeah, I was referring to the electorate rather than the population. It's 29.2% of the electorate. Top of that list is Catherine West's constituency of Hornsey and Wood Green at 38.2%. Coming in at number 5 is Jeremy Corbyn's at 34.4%.

Joe_ Public

“Now is the time to call it a day.”

Former french mep not particularly enthusiastic about the idea of revoking A50. Seems to be the popular french view, good riddance to them.

Eod100

Laois_Man wrote: »

MV3 needs 318 votes to pass

If they had the support of all 311 Tory's who are eligible to vote, plus the 7 non Torys who supported MV2, they hit it bang on!

It's probably likely that there'd always be 1 or 2 Tory's who still won't support it. But it's just as likely that that more non-Tory MPs will decide to support it.

However, given tonight's events, it's more unclear than ever to me if MV3 will even happen.

Think she needs the 75 Tories who voted against it in the first place and 10 DUP Mps on board. Not sure there's a guarantee that the 4 Independents and 3 Labour will vote for it again.

I don't think there's a guarantee that all 75 will vote for it this time round, at all. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

McMurphy

Just listened with bewilderment to a clip on Newstalk that had Nigel Dodds making a speech as to how if things were heading towards a no deal crash out, the government knew the date was March 29th, and the failure to prepare was unacceptable, and it was the government that was responsible, no one else.

The irony.

Isn't Nigel's own party of no's not only part of the government he's scorning, but not only that, they also scuppered a deal that was basically in place that could have only been good news for the North?

I think I recall someone describing the deal they scuppered as giving the north the best of both worlds, and having the potential to make the north the "Hong Kong of Europe"

I would describe him with a fairly derogatory name, but do not fancy the sanction for it.

robinph

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, I was referring to the electorate rather than the population. It's 29.2% of the electorate. Top of that list is Catherine West's constituency of Hornsey and Wood Green at 38.2%. Coming in at number 5 is Jeremy Corbyn's at 34.4%.

Ahh, yep. I thought the petition map was giving their numbers based on potential voters rather than population.

jasper100

Water John wrote: »

JRM now wants to vote for TMs Deal. Trouble is all those troops he led to the top of the hill may not want to march down again.

And how many remainers will say fcuk that, ye had 2 chances and it wasn't good enough. I am voting against this now because ye made a mockery of the whole thing.


Nobody is any the wiser as to what will happen here, 3 years later.


It is 3 years since the last referendum. Lots of young people will be able to vote now who couldn't first time out. Lots of the voters from 3 years ago will be dead.


Totally different political spectrum now than 3 years ago.

trellheim

Andrew Bridgen said late last night that he wouldnt vote for it - and he is prob a decent bellwether for the ERG

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen said late last night that he wouldnt vote for it - and he is prob a decent bellwether for the ERG

Not a word I would use for someone like him.

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

Ahh, yep. I thought the petition map was giving their numbers based on potential voters rather than population.

This site is very useful for that. It connects to the petitions site and breaks down the petition by constituency with percentage of electorate and population.

Anteayer

I'm actually starting to lose track.
Has the UK accepted the extension to April? Or is there still some UK legislation going to trip them out of the EU on Friday?