Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

Seems like the ERG are fully prepared to throw the DUP under the bus if they have to.

EKRIUQ

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exactly. That's their plan as they see Brexit disappearing over the horizon. A slight problem for them is that the likes of Raab or Boris being appointed PM would see a plethora of Tory defections. This would eventually lead to a GE fought by a fragmented Tory party with an incoherent manifesto. So it's all good news.

And if we can see that surely in Europe they can see that also, do they really want 2 more years of this but with someone like Boris.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

Not a word I would use for someone like him.

Although a word beginning with bell springs to mind for him.

Hurrache

trellheim wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen said late last night that he wouldnt vote for it - and he is prob a decent bellwether for the ERG

JRM seems to be going down a different road, he seems to be coming to the conclusion that if they don't vote for May's deal there may be no Brexit at all.

On another point, seems ok for him and other politicians to change their mine on a vote after he previously voted against it twice, but not the ordinary plebs.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312


Leavers are starting to turn on him too.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1110487498562641920

EKRIUQ

Anteayer wrote: »

I'm actually starting to lose track.
Has the UK accepted the extension to April? Or is there still some UK legislation going to trip them out of the EU on Friday?

If they didn't agree to the WA this week they got an extension until the 12th of April, now it looks like they're not going to have a vote this week and will push everything back as far as possible, probably until the 11th of April.

I think the EU needs to intervene and give them an ultimatum, I think Macron was right no extension should of been offered unless they had a plan.

Laois_Man

mikep wrote: »

I'd say the EU would love to see Boris arriving in to lead a delegation to discuss trade..Or Corbyn or Raab or whatever looper takes over in the ensuing calamity..

I don't think they would. The EU want a successfully negotiated free trade agreement. That wouldn't happen with Boris!

Roger_007 wrote: »

Corbyn may be very popular with the Labour party membership

I bet he's not anymore!

Anteayer wrote: »

I'm actually starting to lose track.
Has the UK accepted the extension to April? Or is there still some UK legislation going to trip them out of the EU on Friday?

Yes the extension is until April for now and is written in international law

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Seems like the ERG are fully prepared to throw the DUP under the bus if they have to.

Did anyone really think they wouldn't?

CelticRambler

EKRIUQ wrote: »

I think the EU needs to intervene and give them an ultimatum.

The EU intervened last week and gave them a choice of two ultimatums - to make sure that everyone knows that it's the UK making the final decision and where the blame lies if/when it all goes pear-shaped.

robinph

EKRIUQ wrote: »

If they didn't agree to the WA this week they got an extension until the 12th of April, now it looks like they're not going to have a vote this week and will push everything back as far as possible, probably until the 11th of April.

I think the EU needs to intervene and give them an ultimatum, I think Macron was right no extension should of been offered unless they had a plan.

They really don't have time to come up with a plan if the current schedule is followed. They will have some votes on stuff tomorrow, Thursday May will say that it's not in the Tory manifesto therefore she's ignoring it. Then she leaves everyone to stew for the weekend again, Monday comes back and says thinking of doing the vote on Tuesday, Tuesday they change their mind and say Wednesday, gets voted down again and on Thursday next week she says she's off to Brussels again to see if they have a plan for her.

Then they break up for Easter holidays.

Laois_Man

And they're still arguing over the size of the crowd at the 2nd referendum march

It’s impossible to say with precision how many people attended the march. However experts in crowd estimation put the number at between 312,000 and 400,000.

Eod100

EKRIUQ wrote: »

If they didn't agree to the WA this week they got an extension until the 12th of April, now it looks like they're not going to have a vote this week and will push everything back as far as possible, probably until the 11th of April.

I think the EU needs to intervene and give them an ultimatum, I think Macron was right no extension should of been offered unless they had a plan.

Could be wrong but my understanding is there needs to be a statutory instrument passed to change the date to 12th April. Even if it's not passed before Friday, the date agreed with EU of 12th April takes precedence as it's agreed in international law.

FrancieBrady

Eod100 wrote: »

Could be wrong but my understanding is there needs to be a statutory instrument passed to change the date to 12th April. Even if it's not passed before Friday, the date agreed with EU of 12th April takes precedence as it's agreed in international law.

Did May not tell the HOC last night that that had been done?

briany

EKRIUQ wrote: »

I think the EU needs to intervene and give them an ultimatum, I think Macron was right no extension should of been offered unless they had a plan.

Not much EU solidarity being shown by Macron, here. I get that he, and France at large, are probably bored and annoyed of the whole thing and would like it to end, but he and they must remember that Brexit affects one EU member especially, and that member needs all the time it can get not only to prepare for the worst, but keep the hope alive that the UK might stay.

There's a good turn toward Remaining going on in the UK right now. For the first time, May has uttered the possibility that there could be a 2nd referendum and/or revocation of A50. Right now, the UK is hanging off the cliff edge, but they're making some attempts to climb back up. If France were to stamp on the hands of the UK while positive movements are happening, that would be a vindictive move.

Headshot

Not sure did anyone see Sky News but Femi Oluwole the co founder of our future out choice was on debating brexit with a guy from Guido Fawkes.

Femi destroyed him, it was a great watch. I'll see can I find a video of it because my favourite part was about remainders and leavers sharing the same building

RobMc59

briany wrote: »

Not much EU solidarity being shown by Macron, here. I get that he, and France at large, are probably bored and annoyed of the whole thing and would like it to end, but he and they must remember that Brexit affects one EU member especially, and that member needs all the time it can get not only to prepare for the worst, but keep the hope alive that the UK might stay.

There's a good turn toward Remaining going on in the UK right now. For the first time, May has uttered the possibility that there could be a 2nd referendum and/or revocation of A50. Right now, the UK is hanging off the cliff edge, but they're making some attempts to climb back up. If France were to stamp on the hands of the UK while positive movements are happening would be a vindictive move.

Macron used to really irritate me regarding his attitude to the UK but to be fair he`s having a traumatic time at home with the protests which could explain his short temper.

Hurrache

Femi usually retweets people who tweets his media appearances so I'm sure it'll appear soon enough.

Joe_ Public

briany wrote: »

Not much EU solidarity being shown by Macron, here. I get that he, and France at large, are probably bored and annoyed of the whole thing and would like it to end, but he and they must remember that Brexit affects one EU member especially, and that member needs all the time it can get not only to prepare for the worst, but keep the hope alive that the UK might stay.

There's a good turn toward Remaining going on in the UK right now. For the first time, May has uttered the possibility that there could be a 2nd referendum and/or revocation of A50. Right now, the UK is hanging off the cliff edge, but they're making some attempts to climb back up. If France were to stamp on the hands of the UK while positive movements are happening would be a vindictive move.

Not specifically macron, but i get impression from older french politicians that this whole thing is stoking up some long held grievances and tensions in anglo-french relationships. Cutting them loose would appeal to many of them, remember de gaulle never wanted them in in the first place.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Not sure did anyone see Sky News but Femi Oluwole the co founder of our future out choice was on debating brexit with a guy from Guido Fawkes.

Femi destroyed him, it was a great watch. I'll see can I find a video of it because my favourite part was about remainders and leavers sharing the same building

Here's the video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrX6ktLg8WQ

Rewind back 18 mins or so

Laois_Man

Laois_Man wrote: »

And they're still arguing over the size of the crowd at the 2nd referendum march

Definitely an advantage for the leave march.


You can count them using your fingers and toes

prawnsambo

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not specifically macron, but i get impression from older french politicians that this whole thing is stoking up some long held grievances and tensions in anglo-french relationships. Cutting them loose would appeal to many of them, remember de gaulle never wanted them in in the first place.

It's a very French thing to take a pragmatic view. They are very much for consensus and compromise agreement, but when that can't be reached, quick to just move on and accept it's not going to happen. Macron's question to Varadkar: "Will your country be ok?" is very much an illustration of this. In his head, he'd given up, but still looking for consensus among the rest.

Eod100

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Did May not tell the HOC last night that that had been done?

No don't think so, according to this:

''The prime minister on Monday confirmed that MPs would vote on Wednesday to change the exit date from March 29. She noted that if the vote on changing the exit date did not pass, Brexit would still be delayed because of the supremacy of EU law.''

https://www.ft.com/content/0e1097e6-4f1f-11e9-b401-8d9ef1626294

Itssoeasy

JRM may regret even hinting he will consider voting for Theresa May's deal as just checking twitter there are over 27K tweets about him today and he's trending. I think another brexiter has apparently also said he will vote for the PM's deal.

Water John

It was good that someone(Macron) took the hard, yet not unreasonable line.
That made the compromise arrived at by the 27 authentic.

briany

Eod100 wrote: »

No don't think so, according to this:

''The prime minister on Monday confirmed that MPs would vote on Wednesday to change the exit date from March 29. She noted that if the vote on changing the exit date did not pass, Brexit would still be delayed because of the supremacy of EU law.''

https://www.ft.com/content/0e1097e6-4f1f-11e9-b401-8d9ef1626294

Nigel Farage would have to love that line - that EU law is trumping British law and keeping it in the EU.

"We're being held captive!"

Eod100

briany wrote: »

Nigel Farage would have to love that line - that EU law is trumping British law and keeping it in the EU.

"We're being held captive!"

Sure he'd only love a chance to run for European elections again on a platform of ''let us out'' or something equally ridiculous..

briany

Eod100 wrote: »

Sure he'd only love a chance to run for European elections again on a platform of ''let us out'' or something equally ridiculous..

It appears that Farage's membership of the European Parliament has been one long series of publicity stunts. If the UK had to elect another set of MEPs, with Farage retaining his seat, I expect that trend to continue with increasing voracity. He'd probably show up the first day of the new session bound in chains.

ancapailldorcha

Eod100 wrote: »

Sure he'd only love a chance to run for European elections again on a platform of ''let us out'' or something equally ridiculous..

I don't think so. He's out of UKIP now so he has to build his Brexit party's brand from scratch. Meanwhile Gerard Batten has moved UKIP in a much nastier direction while maintaining the brand.

That said, I'm surprised they haven't been more vocal about contesting the elections as it means another chance to enjoy those expense accounts again.

brickster69

Eod100 wrote: »

Could be wrong but my understanding is there needs to be a statutory instrument passed to change the date to 12th April. Even if it's not passed before Friday, the date agreed with EU of 12th April takes precedence as it's agreed in international law.

A statutory instrument cannot change an Act of Parliament. Only another Act of Parliament approved by both houses and signed by the Queen can.

The Gina Miller case states that states ‘the Crown cannot unilaterally amend the date.’

Article 50 is quite clear also " “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.”

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think so. He's out of UKIP now so he has to build his Brexit party's brand from scratch. Meanwhile Gerard Batten has moved UKIP in a much nastier direction while maintaining the brand.

That said, I'm surprised they haven't been more vocal about contesting the elections as it means another chance to enjoy those expense accounts again.

UKIP appeared to be the Farage party anyway. Nigel Farage is, if nothing else, a charismatic individual. Without him in the mix, all you have is BNP 2.0 . Farage is a brand unto himself.

blanch152

brickster69 wrote: »

A statutory instrument cannot change an Act of Parliament. Only another Act of Parliament approved by both houses and signed by the Queen can.

The Gina Miller case states that states ‘the Crown cannot unilaterally amend the date.’

Article 50 is quite clear also " “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.”

Do you have a link to the Act of Parliament? An Act of Parliament can provide that parts of it be amended by S.I. e.g. the Act sets date of 29 March but subsequent section allows for this date to be amended by S.I.

would need to see the text of the full Act.

Eod100

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think so. He's out of UKIP now so he has to build his Brexit party's brand from scratch. Meanwhile Gerard Batten has moved UKIP in a much nastier direction while maintaining the brand.

That said, I'm surprised they haven't been more vocal about contesting the elections as it means another chance to enjoy those expense accounts again.

Said he will run for the Brexit Party if UK contest EU elections. Could be bluster but never know with him tbh.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nGTpfo-zGM