Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Laois_Man

Headshot wrote: »

Not sure did anyone see Sky News but Femi Oluwole the co founder of our future out choice was on debating brexit with a guy from Guido Fawkes.

Femi destroyed him, it was a great watch. I'll see can I find a video of it because my favourite part was about remainders and leavers sharing the same building

My favorite bit was seeing him getting shot down saying not only the EU, but now also backbench MPs are unaccountable and getting the opportunity to indulge in putting un-scrutinized things thru parliament!

I just enjoy seeing Leavers looking stupid and very disingenuous.

ancapailldorcha

Eod100 wrote: »

Said he will run for the Brexit Party if UK contest EU elections. Could be bluster but never know with him tbh.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nGTpfo-zGM

No, I'd say he'd be more than happy to ride the gravy train again. I'm just wondering if he'd have much chance given that the Eurosceptic vote is now split 3-ways. Being his own brand didn't help him in his many failed attempts to get elected to the Commons.

Eod100

brickster69 wrote: »

A statutory instrument cannot change an Act of Parliament. Only another Act of Parliament approved by both houses and signed by the Queen can.

The Gina Miller case states that states ‘the Crown cannot unilaterally amend the date.’

Article 50 is quite clear also " “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.”

Think SI would need to be voted on though?

Dytalus

blanch152 wrote: »

Do you have a link to the Act of Parliament? An Act of Parliament can provide that parts of it be amended by S.I. e.g. the Act sets date of 29 March but subsequent section allows for this date to be amended by S.I.

would need to see the text of the full Act.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16

Under Section 20 (4), there is the following:

(4)A Minister of the Crown may by regulations—
(a)amend the definition of “exit day” in subsection (1) to ensure that the day and time specified in the definition are the day and time that the Treaties are to cease to apply to the United Kingdom, and
(b)amend subsection (2) in consequence of any such amendment.

Seems to be the relevant part.

Get Real

Anteayer wrote: »

I'm actually starting to lose track.
Has the UK accepted the extension to April? Or is there still some UK legislation going to trip them out of the EU on Friday?

I'd also like to know this (excuse my ignorance)

If they accept some kind of extension tomorrow, legislation will need to be invoked via statutory instrument on Thursday is it?

As in, currently, the EU withdrawl act has 29th March as exit day, but it can be changed by statutory instrument. So if this isn't done by Friday, technically they'll be out for a few days, regardless of what extension they agree on.

My interpretation of it is it's written in law that the 29th is exit day. And this law still hasn't been amended (yet) so it'll have to be done in the next few days surely?

EDIT: while I was typing my original post, it seems in the minutes during it, the posters above discussed this. Many thanks.

Laois_Man

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No, I'd say he'd be more than happy to ride the gravy train again. I'm just wondering if he'd have much chance given that the Eurosceptic vote is now split 3-ways. Being his own brand didn't help him in his many failed attempts to get elected to the Commons.

Now he has the platform of a nationwide radio show playing 6 hours per week. I don't think his seat would be in danger

ToBeFrank123

It seems to be narrowing ever so slightly to a No Deal crash out vs May's WA choice.

If the UK crash out because May's deal fails by a small number of votes ie less than 10, Irish people are going to take a good long look at Sinn Fein and their habit of sitting on the sidelines in politics, particularly when it affects crucial issues on the island of Ireland.

There comes a time when you have to put aside your principles for the greater good and the national interest.

ToBeFrank123

Eod100 wrote: »

Said he will run for the Brexit Party if UK contest EU elections. Could be bluster but never know with him tbh.

He's a grade A hypocrite if he does run, taking money from the EU while continually whinging about them.

Oddly enough, people like Farage and UKIP depend on the EU for their political existence. Without the EU they'd be out of business in the morning as they'd have nothing to oppose.

Leroy42

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

It seems to be narrowing ever so slightly to a No Deal crash out vs May's WA choice.

If the UK crash out because May's deal fails by a small number of votes ie less than 10, Irish people are going to take a good long look at Sinn Fein and their habit of sitting on the sidelines in politics, particularly when it affects crucial issues on the island of Ireland.

There comes a time when you have to put aside your principles for the greater good and the national interest.

Jebus not this again.

So despite the EU doing everything it can, despite Ireland trying to facilitate as much as possible, despite a large amount of people in the Uk feeling very uneasy about the entire Brexit process, SF should be blamed because the HoC failed to gets it act together?

There are plenty of MP's that might very well end up supporting TM's WA, but you put SF on that side and many of them would not do so out simply because it is SF.

The entire Brexit process has been about taking back control, can you imagine if TM's deal got through because of SF votes? The Express would combust. TM would be deemed to have handed over control to the IRA. SF would be deemed to be agents sent to Ireland by twart the will of the people.

JeffKenna

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

It seems to be narrowing ever so slightly to a No Deal crash out vs May's WA choice.

If the UK crash out because May's deal fails by a small number of votes ie less than 10, Irish people are going to take a good long look at Sinn Fein and their habit of sitting on the sidelines in politics, particularly when it affects crucial issues on the island of Ireland.

There comes a time when you have to put aside your principles for the greater good and the national interest.

The people who voted for them voted for the candidates on a principle of abstention. While I would never vote SF myself I can respect that.

Dubh Geannain

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

It seems to be narrowing ever so slightly to a No Deal crash out vs May's WA choice.

If the UK crash out because May's deal fails by a small number of votes ie less than 10, Irish people are going to take a good long look at Sinn Fein and their habit of sitting on the sidelines in politics, particularly when it affects crucial issues on the island of Ireland.

There comes a time when you have to put aside your principles for the greater good and the national interest.

Can they arrive unannounced as a vote is taking place and place a vote themselves? Or is there a registration process when first attending.

Either way, I still don't see it happening.

ToBeFrank123

Leroy42 wrote: »

Jebus not this again.

So depite the EU doing everything it can, despite Ireland trying to facilitate as much as possible, despite a large amount of people in the Uk feeling very uneasy about the entire Brexit process, SF should be blamed because the HoC failed to gets it act together?

There are plenty of MP's that might very well end up supporting TM's WA, but you put SF on that side and many of them would not do so out simply because it is SF.

The entire Brexit process has been about taking back control, can you imagine if TM's deal got through because of SF votes? The Express would combust. TM would be deemed to have handed over control to the IRA. SF would be deemed to be agents sent to Ireland to twart the will of the people.

And for the last time, Brexit will be decided in the HoC and nowhere else.

Nothing anyone does outside of that will matter at the end of the day. Its votes in the HoC that will determine the outcome.

And its a case of the DUP calling the shots at the moment. The DUP could sink or save the WA.

lawred2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

It seems to be narrowing ever so slightly to a No Deal crash out vs May's WA choice.

If the UK crash out because May's deal fails by a small number of votes ie less than 10, Irish people are going to take a good long look at Sinn Fein and their habit of sitting on the sidelines in politics, particularly when it affects crucial issues on the island of Ireland.

There comes a time when you have to put aside your principles for the greater good and the national interest.

No.

Posters like yourself need to ask themselves why they feel the need to take a pop at SF who are entirely blameless in a Brexit context.

They are standing by the platform upon which they are elected.

Why is it that this crap has to be dealt with on an almost weekly basis?

There comes a time when you have to put aside your principles for the greater good and the national interest

lol

Leroy42

I think the u-turn by JRM this morning could signal the change that TM was looking for. Davis already voted for it last time, and JRM will bring with him quite a sizeable number.

Also, his explanation of his u-turn, that he now realises that Brexit is a process that will take many years when before he had thought of it as an event, will give many the chance to back down with the added bonus of saving the Tory party.

ToBeFrank123

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

Can they arrive unannounced as a vote is taking place and place a vote themselves? Or is there a registration process when first attending.

Either way, I still don't see it happening.

My understanding is they could swear a short term sham oath to the Queen. Vote for the WA and subsequent legislation and then leave the HoC again. This would be the mature thing politically to do and in a very tight vote, could swing it and avoid a Hard Border.

And if they do help avoid a Hard Border they would massively increase their vote at subsequent NI elections.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

It seems to be narrowing ever so slightly to a No Deal crash out vs May's WA choice.

If the UK crash out because May's deal fails by a small number of votes ie less than 10, Irish people are going to take a good long look at Sinn Fein and their habit of sitting on the sidelines in politics, particularly when it affects crucial issues on the island of Ireland.

There comes a time when you have to put aside your principles for the greater good and the national interest.

Some analysts disagree:
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1110272264858226688

lawred2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

My understanding is they could swear a short term sham oath to the Queen. Vote for the WA and subsequent legislation and then leave the HoC again. This would be the mature thing politically to do and in a very tight vote, could swing it and avoid a Hard Border.

And if they do help avoid a Hard Border they would massively increase their vote at subsequent NI elections.

there is absolutely no such thing in the eyes of an Irish Republican

Leroy42

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

And for the last time, Brexit will be decided in the HoC and nowhere else.

Nothing anyone does outside of that will matter at the end of the day. Its votes in the HoC that will determine the outcome.

And its a case of the DUP calling the shots at the moment. The DUP could sink or save the WA.

True, but you are completely ignoring the fact that many in the HoC will vote the opposite to SF merely because they are SF. Whatever about throwing the DUP under a bus, how could JRM, Johnson et al possibly side with SF over the future of the precious Union.

You seem to think that people will simply continue to act as they do now when SF turn up. I think that is naive.

ToBeFrank123

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the u-turn by JRM this morning could signal the change that TM was looking for. Davis already voted for it last time, and JRM will bring with him quite a sizeable number.

Also, his explanation of his u-turn, that he now realises that Brexit is a process that will take many years when before he had thought of it as an event, will give many the chance to back down with the added bonus of saving the Tory party.

The ERG alone probably won't be enough and there are at least 20 hardcore members in the group who want nothing other than a No Deal crash out.

The DUP will also probably be required.

Either way it could be very tight, and May could still lose by 10-20 votes.

ToBeFrank123

lawred2 wrote: »

there is absolutely no such thing in the eyes of an Irish Republican

As I said, we expect maturity at times like this, from all sides.

robinph

Laois_Man wrote: »

My favorite bit was seeing him getting shot down saying not only the EU, but now also backbench MPs are unaccountable and getting the opportunity to indulge in putting un-scrutinized things thru parliament!

I just enjoy seeing Leavers looking stupid and very disingenuous.

I liked the bit where Femi was being criticised for having a central London office and who was paying for it, to which Femi came back with the point that they both sit in the same office block next door to each other. Presumably they drew straws as to which of them walked across the road to the Sky News office and which got to sit in their shared meeting room over a Skype link.

Wonder if Femi had turned on the coffee pot for the other guy ready for when he got back.

Dubh Geannain

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

And for the last time, Brexit will be decided in the HoC and nowhere else.

Nothing anyone does outside of that will matter at the end of the day. Its votes in the HoC that will determine the outcome.

And its a case of the DUP calling the shots at the moment. The DUP could sink or save the WA.

Yes but do you not see the DUP doing more harm than good for their own cause. SF's end goal is a United Ireland. With the Unionist vote splintered between the DUP and UUP it would work into SFs hands.

Just like the DUPs main goal above economic arguments is the Union. Although it hasn't been proved out yet, I suspect SF would take a no deal Brexit if it expedited a United Ireland. They are playing a blinder by letting the DUP stand centre stage.

I haven't given them a No 1 myself yet myself in any election but I don't see their support being harmed by the shenanigans in British Parliament.

lawred2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As I said, we expect maturity at times like this, from all sides.

right

and SF sticking by their constituents and their mandate is in your eyes 'immature'?

Anteayer

I'm still confused confused by the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018

There's a piece in the FT suggesting that no amendment to the act is necessary as European law has supremacy over the act. However, the act specifically removes the supremacy of EU law by repealing various enabling legislation.

In Ireland or many other countries, there's a constitutional basis for European Union law that is very simple to interpret and is part of a formal constitution. In the UK the constitution is more of a nebulous concepts that isn't codified, rather it's a collection of law, precedent and also traditions of how things are done in law.

As such doesn't the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 basically amend the UK constitution by removing the relationship with the EU and the supremacy of European law and the ECJ?

So how exactly does European law have supremacy on Friday? It defines Exit day as 29 March 2019 and specifically states that on that day European law will cease to have supremacy.

So I'm just confused as to how it's going to work as if looks to me that the act unilaterally terminates EU membership by removing the EU and the whole body of EU law from the UK's constitutional framework.

Unless the date is amended by some SI or there's flexibility that I've missed, I just don't see how this works from a legal perspective. That act looks like a constitutional amendment.

Are they not risking the ERG going to court on Monday demanding this be recognised ?

seamus

Leroy42 wrote: »

The entire Brexit process has been about taking back control, can you imagine if TM's deal got through because of SF votes? The Express would combust. TM would be deemed to have handed over control to the IRA. SF would be deemed to be agents sent to Ireland by twart the will of the people.

Also, Sinn Féin's primary demographic and definitely their grassroots are most likely in favour of a good hard Brexit, as that will cause the most damage and chaos in the UK, furthering on the breakup and end of it.

SF wading in to "save" the UK from itself would be seen as treachery by their voters.

The kind of people who would criticise SF for not getting involved are exactly the people who will never vote for them anyway.

SF are gleefully standing aside watching the UK engage in self-immolation. And that's exactly where SF voters want them to be.

An Ciarraioch

May addressing the 1922 Committee tomorrow at 5 - quid pro quo of backing the WA in exchange for her resignation date?

storker

Joe_ Public wrote: »

“Now is the time to call it a day.”

Former french mep not particularly enthusiastic about the idea of revoking A50. Seems to be the popular french view, good riddance to them.

Understandable, I think. At least if they go, then at the last 2+ years has resulted in the departure of the perennial awkward squad. If they revoke article 50 then after all the political panto and nearly three years of pointlessness, they're still in the tent urinating on the sleeping bags, and what's to stop them triggering the whole mess again at some point in the future?

Laois_Man

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

May addressing the 1922 Committee tomorrow at 5 - quid pro quo of backing the WA in exchange for her resignation date?

I don't think she needs to announce it

The end of May will happen before the end of May whether she announces it or not!

FrancieBrady

Anteayer wrote: »

I'm still confused confused by the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018

There's a piece in the FT suggesting that no amendment to the act is necessary as European law has supremacy over the act. However, the act specifically removes the supremacy of EU law by repealing various enabling legislation.

In Ireland or many other countries, there's a constitutional basis for European Union law that is very simple to interpret and is part of a formal constitution. In the UK the constitution is more of a nebulous concepts that isn't codified, rather it's a collection of law, precedent and also traditions of how things are done in law.

As such doesn't the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 basically amend the UK constitution by removing the relationship with the EU and the supremacy of European law and the ECJ?

So how exactly does European law have supremacy on Friday? It defines Exit day as 29 March 2019 and specifically states that on that day European law will cease to have supremacy.

So I'm just confused as to how it's going to work as if looks to me that the act unilaterally terminates EU membership by removing the EU and the whole body of EU law from the UK's constitutional framework.

Unless the date is amended by some SI or there's flexibility that I've missed, I just don't see how this works from a legal perspective. That act looks like a constitutional amendment.

Are they not risking the ERG going to court on Monday demanding this be recognised ?

I'm confused here too, as much by the language as by the procedures. But at 15.55.57 William Cash states that the SI 'was laid precisely one hour before' and proceeds to question May right to do it. She seems to say that because the house voted for an extension previously that was why they had gone ahead and done it.

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/ac629c09-2d0d-4c6b-9733-59ea4569596d

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

May addressing the 1922 Committee tomorrow at 5 - quid pro quo of backing the WA in exchange for her resignation date?

Almost certainly. Can't think of any other reason as to why she would want to address them.