Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Eod100

So Ireland expected to take a hit of €50 billion if there's a deal, €100 billion if there's none. What sort of financial aid could we expect from the EU?

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2019/0326/1038584-esri-brexit/

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Back to the DUP - seems they'd be prepared to delay Brexit for 12 months, rather than approve the Withdrawal Agreement, so it would appear a No Deal Brexit is swiftly receding:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prefer-long-brexit-delay-to-pms-deal-sky-sources-11675614

How would that work? I thought there were only two options. Vote to accept WA and thus delay until 22 May to allow for legislation to proceed, or crash out by 12 April.

Have they (EU) also offered a longer extension based on running in the EU elections?

Anteayer

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Back to the DUP - seems they'd be prepared to delay Brexit for 12 months, rather than approve the Withdrawal Agreement, so it would appear a No Deal Brexit is swiftly receding:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prefer-long-brexit-delay-to-pms-deal-sky-sources-11675614

The DUP basically facilitated this total fiasco. This wasn't voted for by most people in Northern Ireland and its profoundly damaging to the region and to peace and stability.

They're against the withdrawal agreement but they're also against the only thing that would resolve that - the boring, peaceful, prosperous status quo that NI already has!

I hope pragmatic NI unionist voters remover this at the next election.

awec

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Back to the DUP - seems they'd be prepared to delay Brexit for 12 months, rather than approve the Withdrawal Agreement, so it would appear a No Deal Brexit is swiftly receding:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prefer-long-brexit-delay-to-pms-deal-sky-sources-11675614

DUP are hitting the panic button after last night's vote.

Eod100

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I suppose that is pointing pretty clearly towards a no/slow brexit. But does it leave the door open to 'no deal' happening by default, even if HoC does not proactively vote for it?

Unless May doesn't seek another extension or does and EU doesn't grant it, I don't think so. But there's so many permutations who knows, maybe intentional/accidental no deal Brexit could still happen?

If the UK thinks EU have been the baddies in all this, wait til they try to trade with USA or China after Brexit.

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anteayer wrote: »

She's got very, very little power to do anything beyond what her government tells her to do. Constitutionally she's just a figurehead.

Also the current Queen has been extremely politically neutral and in all her years hasn't every tested the limits of that. I mean if she were to intervene by making a speech calling for unity and pragmatism, it might be subject to people giving out about her interfering in politics but in reality I don't think anyone could or would be able to sanction her for so doing. In fact they'd likely all end up in worshiping her majesty mode and say nothing.

I'd have my doubts that she'll do anything. I mean she's been reduced to having to express her political views through choices of hat!

But, but, but, could she not just do it this one time?

During the Garvaghy Road protests, she could have made it clear that people (subjects) claiming to walk 'the Queen's Highway' where other 'subjects' did not want them to, were not doing it in her name, and would they please stop claiming that they were.

She did not do that then, so why should she do anything about Brexit now?

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

How would that work? I thought there were only two options. Vote to accept WA and thus delay until 22 May to allow for legislation to proceed, or crash out by 12 April.

Have they (EU) also offered a longer extension based on running in the EU elections?

They have offered it on the basis that the UK make proposals that can realistically resolve the issue, have they not?

Anteayer

Sam Russell wrote: »

During the Garvaghy Road protests, she could have made it clear that people (subjects) claiming to walk 'the Queen's Highway' where other 'subjects' did not want them to, were not doing it in her name, and would they please stop claiming that they were.

She did not do that then, so why should she do anything about Brexit now?

She won't do anything.

You can forget the idea that the queen will go all Elizabeth I and sweep into parliament and give them all a jolly good telling off.

It's as likely to happen as SF swearing allegiance to her and taking their seats in Westminster.

Both are total fantasy situations that won't happen.

An Ciarraioch

Leroy42 wrote: »

How would that work? I thought there were only two options. Vote to accept WA and thus delay until 22 May to allow for legislation to proceed, or crash out by 12 April.

Have they (EU) also offered a longer extension based on running in the EU elections?

They're assuming that the EU would be prepared to talk to a new PM, and yes, if the UK declares on April 11th that it will participate in the European elections, that buys more time.

Quin_Dub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Back to the DUP - seems they'd be prepared to delay Brexit for 12 months, rather than approve the Withdrawal Agreement, so it would appear a No Deal Brexit is swiftly receding:

https://news.sky.com/story/dup-prefer-long-brexit-delay-to-pms-deal-sky-sources-11675614

For what though?

The EU have been absolutely clear that any extension has to be framed around a coherent plan that has majority support.

Have the DUP offered up a single suggestion other than saying NO ?

54and56

It seems clear to me from listening to JRM's 20 minute podcast released today that yesterday at Chequers was a lightbulb moment for him where he finally realised that No Deal Brexit won't ever happen (he says the PM is against it, the cabinet are against it and the HoC are against it) and given the direction of travel with the actual delay to April 12th and potential for a much longer delay he has now concluded that TM's deal is better than any other viable option and that whilst TM's deal is hugely flawed it will deliver the central objective of the UK exiting the EU and no longer being subject to the ECJ etc.

He actually goes as far as to say that he has "recently" realised that leaving the EU may be as much of a process as joining it i.e. it's not a single light bulb type event but you start with what you can achieve in negotiations and then over a number of years you diverge further and further apart until you reach the point you are happy to say Brexit is complete.

It sounds very much like he's climbing down his ladder and waving goodbye to his DUP buddies and concerns over the Union as it applies to NI along the way as they no longer provide him with political cover.

Is JRM the first and most important ERG/Hard Brexit domino to fall? Could this gesture by him be the grand exercise in compromise which would enable him to secure a majority of Tory MP's and replace TM once the WA is finally passed?

ToBeFrank123

Quin_Dub wrote: »

For what though?

The EU have been absolutely clear that any extension has to be framed around a coherent plan that has majority support.

Have the DUP offered up a single suggestion other than saying NO ?

Like several political parties in NI, the DUP are almost exclusively a reactionary party.

They wait for someone to come up with a suggestion and 9 times out of 10 say No to it. It will be the same for the next few weeks, year or years when it comes to Brexit.

So don't expect anything new or innovative from them as that would leave them open to the same kind of criticism they have become experts at throwing at others.

BobbyBobberson

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

He actually goes as fdar as to say that he has "recently" realised that leaving the EU may be as much of a process as joining it i.e. you start with what yu can achieve and then over a number of years you diverge further and further apart until you reach the point you are happy to say Brexit is complete.


Is JRM the first and most important ERG/Hard Brexit domino to fall? Could this gesture by him be the grand exercise in compromise which would enable him to secure a majority of Tory MP's and replace TM once the WA is finally passed?

Daniel Hannan (I know I know) made a similar point before and pointed to Ireland leaving the UK as an example. He made reference to ports being under UK jurisdiction initially and says UK leaving EU should be similar.

For your second point, one journo tweeted earlier that JRM says he is about the 35-40th hardest Brexiteer and many would not fold.

FrancieBrady

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

It seems clear to me from listening to JRM's [https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=594&v=BkqghfxYx2U[/URL] released today that yesterday at Chequers was a lightbulb moment for him where he finally realised that No Deal Brexit won't ever happen (he says the PM is against it, the cabinet are against it and the HoC are against it) and given the direction of travel with the actual delay to April 12th and potential for a much longer delay he has now concluded that TM's deal is better than any other viable option and that whilst TM's deal is hugely flawed it will deliver the central objective of the UK exiting the EU and no longer being subject to the ECJ etc.

He actually goes as fdar as to say that he has "recently" realised that leaving the EU may be as much of a process as joining it i.e. you start with what yu can achieve and then over a number of years you diverge further and further apart until you reach the point you are happy to say Brexit is complete.

It sounds very much like he's climbing down his ladder and waving goodbye to his DUP buddies and concerns over the Union as it applies to NI along the way as they no longer provide him with political cover.

Is JRM the first and most important ERG/Hard Brexit domino to fall? Could this gesture by him be the grand exercise in compromise which would enable him to secure a majority of Tory MP's and replace TM once the WA is finally passed?

The DUP are about to achieve something massive. To demonstrate to all their faithful what most of us knew, that the rest of the UK really don't care about northern Ireland Unionists place in the Union, ahead of their own selfish interests.

Anteayer

Irish ports being under UK jurisdiction had nothing to do with trade. It was about military requirements in very unstable times in Western Europe.

The comparison doesn't stack up at all.

They would be much better off looking at creating a workable present day and future arrangement rather than endlessly clutching at irrelevant examples from history, revising Irish history and trying to fame everything in military language ...

At least the EU has always been a positive thinking, forward looking organisation that tries to create a new Europe, learning history not trying to repeat it and reframe it to suit a nationalist narrative.

Eod100

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

It seems clear to me from listening to JRM's 20 minute podcast released today that yesterday at Chequers was a lightbulb moment for him where he finally realised that No Deal Brexit won't ever happen (he says the PM is against it, the cabinet are against it and the HoC are against it) and given the direction of travel with the actual delay to April 12th and potential for a much longer delay he has now concluded that TM's deal is better than any other viable option and that whilst TM's deal is hugely flawed it will deliver the central objective of the UK exiting the EU and no longer being subject to the ECJ etc.

He actually goes as far as to say that he has "recently" realised that leaving the EU may be as much of a process as joining it i.e. it's not a single light bulb type event but you start with what you can achieve in negotiations and then over a number of years you diverge further and further apart until you reach the point you are happy to say Brexit is complete.

It sounds very much like he's climbing down his ladder and waving goodbye to his DUP buddies and concerns over the Union as it applies to NI along the way as they no longer provide him with political cover.

Is JRM the first and most important ERG/Hard Brexit domino to fall? Could this gesture by him be the grand exercise in compromise which would enable him to secure a majority of Tory MP's and replace TM once the WA is finally passed?

On the whole no deal, think some in ERG were saying in event of no deal, EU would try to prevent their being a hard-border in North so they questioned need for backstop. But maybe May has decided with votes in HOC that no deal is not seen as a viable option and won't gain any concessions from the EU, so JRM has add to adjust his position.

Maybe DUP are sticking to the idea that there can still be a no deal Brexit with no hard border.

Dubh Geannain

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Like several political parties in NI, the DUP are almost exclusively a reactionary party.

They wait for someone to come up with a suggestion and 9 times out of 10 say No to it. It will be the same for the next few weeks, year or years when it comes to Brexit.

Hardly :rolleyes:

The DUP are unique. They want to maintain the status quo as much as possible and ideally roll back the clock to before the GFA (even further if they could).

The several other parties know politics are about compromise.

Professor Moriarty

awec wrote: »

DUP are hitting the panic button after last night's vote.

They're right to panic. The future is very bleak for them. They've dropped by 20% and falling in the polls. Their vision of Canada Plus or a No Deal is gone and all the while their blinkered reactionary policy has cost NI thousands of jobs and threatened tens of thousands - leaving the UUP to hoover up their voters. There will be an election soon and they will become an irrelevancy. If the Tories regain power, they will remember how the DUP persistently shafted them. If Labour get in, at best, they will be ignored. They deserve everything they're going to get.

Quin_Dub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP are about to achieve something massive. To demonstrate to all their faithful what most of us knew, that the rest of the UK really don't care about northern Ireland Unionists place in the Union, ahead of their own selfish interests.

But, Is that a good thing or a bad thing for Northern Ireland?

Hard to know how the average Unionist voter might react to that realisation. Or Nationalist voters for that matter..

Eod100

Talk of pensioners rioting. I do worry about there being a risk of violence if the 'right' Brexit isn't seen to be delivered. And as other posters pointed out the language used has been pretty dangerous. But the mention of Blueshirts makes it unintentionally amusing..

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110526375293865984

FrancieBrady

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But, Is that a good thing or a bad thing for Northern Ireland?

Hard to know how the average Unionist voter might react to that realisation. Or Nationalist voters for that matter..

The moderate Unionist will not fail to take stock of what it means.

TBH if the DUP dig their heels in I can see a massive loss of support for them.
I think most nationalists know the importance of northern Ireland to the UK in general. They have digested and dealt with the implications of what the GFA actually was. Unionism never really faced up to it, perhaps now it will and begin to engage with the future relationships. That can only be a good thing.

blanch152

Quin_Dub wrote: »

For what though?

The EU have been absolutely clear that any extension has to be framed around a coherent plan that has majority support.

Have the DUP offered up a single suggestion other than saying NO ?

To be fair to the DUP, their number one priority is the maintenance of the union with England, Scotland and Wales. They might prefer that in a hard Brexit, where their perception of the threat from the South recedes, but a soft Brexit with the union intact is better than a hard Brexit with a NI-only Brexit. Ultimately, if you cannot maintain the union in a Brexit context, they would revoke. In that way, there are important distinctions between them and the ERG.

54and56

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Daniel Hannan (I know I know) made a similar point before and pointed to Ireland leaving the UK as an example. He made reference to ports being under UK jurisdiction initially and says UK leaving EU should be similar.

For your second point, one journo tweeted earlier that JRM says he is about the 35-40th hardest Brexiteer and many would not fold.

Possibly but he is the Chairman of the ERG and by far their most publicly influential. I've no doubt that the true blue Mark Gino Francois MP and others of similar DUP type "Never Never Never" calibre would rather go down fighting than take a pragmatic/strategic path but if JRM goes on to say he will vote for the WA in MV3 I think we'll quickly see many others fall in behind including many Labour MP's from leave constituencies who don't want to be on the wrong side of the final decision but who up to this didn't want to risk backing TM's deal when it had such little chance of success.

JRM getting behind the WA (even reluctantly) could be the trigger for the WA being passed which will give him enormous political capital. He'll be credited with showing true leadership, putting the country (and conveniently his party) ahead of his own strongly held views and the sort of person who should take over negotiations with the EU on the future relationship etc etc.

This move by him will also completely sideline Boris and any others with PM ambitions. It'll be presented that when the moment for compromise and leadership was at it's most critical he acted whilst all others prevaricated. They'll be begging him to become PM and despite not wanting it (cough cough) how can he possibly refuse to serve his country in a time of such crisis blah blah blah!!

Anteayer

blanch152 wrote: »

To be fair to the DUP, their number one priority is the maintenance of the union with England, Scotland and Wales. They might prefer that in a hard Brexit, where their perception of the threat from the South recedes, but a soft Brexit with the union intact is better than a hard Brexit with a NI-only Brexit. Ultimately, if you cannot maintain the union in a Brexit context, they would revoke. In that way, there are important distinctions between them and the ERG.

They have fundamentally undermined the union with what they've done and have hastened the likelihood of Scottish independence and Irish reunification.

Also since when has a hard brexit been a good idea for the union?

It looks to me that they got lost in English nationalism, not realising that it sees them as entirely alien to it, but is quite happy to use Ulster unionists to achieve a narrowly right wing and very much English political agenda.

I think the DUP has been played like a fiddle in this because they're reactionary and easy to manipulate if you know what buttons to push.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

To be fair to the DUP, their number one priority is the maintenance of the union with England, Scotland and Wales. They might prefer that in a hard Brexit, where their perception of the threat from the South recedes, but a soft Brexit with the union intact is better than a hard Brexit with a NI-only Brexit. Ultimately, if you cannot maintain the union in a Brexit context, they would revoke. In that way, there are important distinctions between them and the ERG.

They have missed what is obvious to anyone, that 'the threat' is from within the Union and they have massively stoked that fire.

Shelga

Has JRM said he’ll definitely vote for it or is he still merely ‘considering’ doing so?

He is a hypocrite of the highest order, having said this deal is worse than remaining. Surely now is when the hardcore Leavers turn against him and it all falls apart, there are so many warring factions of Leave now.

BonnieSituation

Eod100 wrote: »

Talk of pensioners rioting. I do worry about there being a risk of violence if the 'right' Brexit isn't seen to be delivered. And as other posters pointed out the language used has been pretty dangerous. But the mention of Blueshirts makes it unintentionally amusing..

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110526375293865984

The Blue Shirts?

Jesus!

blanch152

Anteayer wrote: »

They have fundamentally undermined the union with they they've done and have hastened the likelihood of Scottish independence and Irish reunification.

Also since when has a hard brexit been a good idea for the union?

It looks to me that they got lost in English nationalism, not realising that it sees them as entirely alien to it, but is quite happy to use Ulster unionists to achieve a narrowly right wing and very much English political agenda.

I think the DUP has been played like a fiddle in this because they're reactionary and easy to manipulate if you know what buttons to push.

I never said that a hard Brexit was a good idea for the union, I said that in a hard Brexit, the DUP perceive that the threat from the South recedes.

All I am doing is examining their motivation to understand what they might be prepared to accept. Their motivations are not the same as the ERG's and that could introduce differences in outcome.

Peregrinus

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

It seems clear to me from listening to JRM's 20 minute podcast released today that yesterday at Chequers was a lightbulb moment for him where he finally realised that No Deal Brexit won't ever happen (he says the PM is against it, the cabinet are against it and the HoC are against it) and given the direction of travel with the actual delay to April 12th and potential for a much longer delay he has now concluded that TM's deal is better than any other viable option and that whilst TM's deal is hugely flawed it will deliver the central objective of the UK exiting the EU and no longer being subject to the ECJ etc.

He actually goes as far as to say that he has "recently" realised that leaving the EU may be as much of a process as joining it i.e. it's not a single light bulb type event but you start with what you can achieve in negotiations and then over a number of years you diverge further and further apart until you reach the point you are happy to say Brexit is complete.

It sounds very much like he's climbing down his ladder and waving goodbye to his DUP buddies and concerns over the Union as it applies to NI along the way as they no longer provide him with political cover.

Is JRM the first and most important ERG/Hard Brexit domino to fall? Could this gesture by him be the grand exercise in compromise which would enable him to secure a majority of Tory MP's and replace TM once the WA is finally passed?

Which has led to a storm of tweets denouncing him from the likes of Leave.EU.

"The Revolution devours its children", as Danton famously observed (shortly before being sentenced to the guillotine himself).

Professor Moriarty

Hmmm. A new poll should give Remainers/Second Referendum Supporters a serious boost. Not so much for Leave Supporters:

Given three choices, how would you vote?

Remain: 55%
Leave with May's deal: 17%
No Deal: 27%