Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

RobertKK

Anteayer wrote: »

i'd agree that they have now realised just how serious the GFA is, but the issue was the ignored that before and during the first year and a bit of Brexit. It's only a recent position. I think it's almost been like some of the Tories have only recently learnt about how messed up Northern Ireland is and how fragile and complex that whole process was.

Also I think they're starting to realise that there are serious international ramifications to screwing up the GFA, particularly from Irish American politicians who'd probably hold their feet to the fire on it in any trade negotiations with the US and those politicians in the US are across the spectrum of politics from left to right and Democrat to hat wearing Trumpeteers.

The impression I got was some people in the UK were a bit shocked at the extent of Irish soft power in the US and also American interest in Northern Ireland's peace process. Patrick's Day this year was somewhat of an eye opener.

Totally.
I watched a review of the papers one morning last week on Sky News and it was reported in the British newspaper - forget which one, but the British journalist reported that it was clear in the US that the cross party Irish American lobby is the only group to rival the Israeli lobby in Washington.

Professor Moriarty

Anteayer wrote: »

i'd agree that they have now realised just how serious the GFA is, but the issue was the ignored that before and during the first year and a bit of Brexit. It's only a recent position. I think it's almost been like some of the Tories have only recently learnt about how messed up Northern Ireland is and how fragile and complex that whole process was.

Also I think they're starting to realise that there are serious international ramifications to screwing up the GFA, particularly from Irish American politicians who'd probably hold their feet to the fire on it in any trade negotiations with the US and those politicians in the US are across the spectrum of politics from left to right and Democrat to hat wearing Trumpeteers.

The impression I got was some people in the UK were a bit shocked at the extent of Irish soft power in the US and also American interest in Northern Ireland's peace process. Patrick's Day this year was somewhat of an eye opener.

I also got the sense that they were somewhat shocked by the extent of Ireland's connections within the EU, particularly FG within the EPP which is hugely influential in a way Tories absolutely are not.

The return of direct rule is being mooted, by May and a senior civil servant, in the event of a hard border.

Sardonicat

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Anteayer wrote: »

i'd agree that they have now realised just how serious the GFA is, but the issue was the ignored that before and during the first year and a bit of Brexit. It's only a recent position. I think it's almost been like some of the Tories have only recently learnt about how messed up Northern Ireland is and how fragile and complex that whole process was.

Also I think they're starting to realise that there are serious international ramifications to screwing up the GFA, particularly from Irish American politicians who'd probably hold their feet to the fire on it in any trade negotiations with the US and those politicians in the US are across the spectrum of politics from left to right and Democrat to hat wearing Trumpeteers.

The impression I got was some people in the UK were a bit shocked at the extent of Irish soft power in the US and also American interest in Northern Ireland's peace process. Patrick's Day this year was somewhat of an eye opener.

I also got the sense that they were somewhat shocked by the extent of Ireland's connections within the EU, particularly FG within the EPP which is hugely influential in a way Tories absolutely are not.

The return of direct rule is being mooted, by May and a senior civil servant, in the event of a hard border.

That's basically a red rag to a bull!

Spanish Eyes

Just musing here, so forgive my lack of forensic analysis...

If a GE is called, would it be possible for GC to resign and a new Labour Leader installed like Keir Starmer for example before the vote? Labour would romp home with someone with brains and leadership qualities at the helm I think. At the moment the LP is unelectable with JC at the helm, and everyone knows it.

Hmmm.

BluePlanet

Q: Does anybody visit other forums and debate Brexit issues, where actual Brexiteers are in the majority?

Irish Praetorian

BluePlanet wrote: »

Q: Does anybody visit other forums and debate Brexit issues, where actual Brexiteers are in the majority?

I like to peruse the comment sections of more pro Brexit papers, as well as the twitter accounts of pro Brexit journalists and figures, mostly as a means of trying to understand their point of view; but in terms of forums, no, partly because I cant think of a British equivalent to boards and because those forums I go to where politics are a sideshow tend to be fairly Remainish.

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

The official taking control document:

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1110565759674212352

18 March!! the date on the heading is incorrect, is the rest of the text correct?

L1011

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just musing here, so forgive my lack of forensic analysis...

If a GE is called, would it be possible for GC to resign and a new Labour Leader installed like Keir Starmer for example before the vote? Labour would romp home with someone with brains and leadership qualities at the helm I think. At the moment the LP is unelectable with JC at the helm, and everyone knows it.

Hmmm.

He wouldn't go, and theres limited chance of throwing him out

Spanish Eyes

L1011 wrote: »

He wouldn't go, and theres limited chance of throwing him out

That's a terrible pity really. And Labour know it too. For shame that a useless person like him is wrecking Labour support.

He has not been Leader of the Opposition at all IMV. But anyway, such is life. Politics in the UK is very weird at the moment no matter what side you are on.

Inquitus

L1011 wrote: »

He wouldn't go, and theres limited chance of throwing him out

Aye unless Momentum decides to get rid of him he's there for good, they are 80% remain though, so may well be able to apply pressure for Labour to stand on a 2nd Referendum platform though.

Spook_ie

Enzokk wrote: »

From my side it looks like the UK is aware of their commitments regarding the GFA and that they will have to keep the border open between Ireland and NI. This seems evident even in the event of no-deal in that both sides are most likely talking about a deal in such a case. Yes I am aware that in the event of no-deal having a deal means it is not no-deal, but that seems to be what will happen.

As for the argument that these talks show that the backstop is not needed, well it doesn't make sense to me. All it does do is make the importance of maintaining no border between NI and Ireland even more apparent, in that it will happen even when there is no deal and the UK crashes out. The fact that it will still be maintained doesn't mean it isn't needed, it just reinforces that it is the most important item for the two sides (EU and UK) in that this is the item that will be carried over from the talks when all other fall away.

But nothing in what you say is compatible with EU requirements, no deal = crash out = border controls for the EU, NI will still be part of the UK and subject to whatever EU borders the EU put up and if there's no deal then I don't see how the EU can put a prerequisite of a part of a sovereign state being subject to outside ( EU ) controls before trade talks.

Eod100

UK government has responded to revoke petition here. Answer as expected really. https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

Inquitus

This guys Syrup is a sight to behold, that and he's come round to voting for the WA:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1110577463929782272

RobMc59

BluePlanet wrote: »

Q: Does anybody visit other forums and debate Brexit issues, where actual Brexiteers are in the majority?

I don't but living in Britain do know many people who want to leave,they seem to fall into two categories-either uninformed jingoistic or the worst type-the appears and acts totally rational but "just wants to get on with it"to stop "the unelected eurocrats"-not aware of the eye-popping amount of unelected civil servants in the UK.

Hurrache

Inquitus wrote: »

This guys Syrup is a sight to behold, that and he's come round to voting for the WA:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1110577463929782272

I had to google that guy was real, I thought it was a Harry Enfield type character. I see that one of the google auto completes is about his wig, so I guess I'm far from the only one quizzical about him.

Shelga

Inquitus wrote: »

This guys Syrup is a sight to behold, that and he's come round to voting for the WA:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1110577463929782272

He looks like a Boris Johnson tribute act. A parody of a parody.

These old Etonians are completely deluded about their place on the world stage and have made their country something to be pitied. And yet they still have no humility or shame.

Delusion and arrogance of unbelievably epic proportions.

Hurrache

The cat may be out of the ERG's bag. They're really making burning the crap out of their bed for the future trade talks. And these same eejits are whinging that the backstop is not needed!

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1110585429600993280

Inquitus

BluePlanet wrote: »

Q: Does anybody visit other forums and debate Brexit issues, where actual Brexiteers are in the majority?

I read the comments in the Guardian, on Politico and if I ever stray that far, the Mail, just for some other viewpoints etc.

The Daily Mail readership would drive you mad, they have drunk the Koolaid big time, and parrot the same old lies over and over again. They don't let facts get in the way of a good auld moan about the EU.

Inquitus

Another amendment:

https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1110600161338843143

Duane Dibbley

Hurrache wrote: »

The cat may be out of the ERG's bag. They're really making burning the crap out of their bed for the future trade talks. And these same eejits are whinging that the backstop is not needed!

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1110585429600993280

This was predictable. I thought this was common knowledge

Laois_Man

BluePlanet wrote: »

Q: Does anybody visit other forums and debate Brexit issues, where actual Brexiteers are in the majority?

I visit a UK based version of Boards (sort of) but I am only a lurker as an unregistered member. I don't debate anything. Not going down that hole!

Hurrache

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

This was predictable. I thought this was common knowledge

Some members of the ERG, most notably JRM, only started murmuring that they may support May's deal the last day.

BonnieSituation

Laois_Man wrote: »

I visit a UK based version of Boards (sort of) but I am only a lurker as an unregistered member. I don't debate anything. Not going down that hole!

DigitalSpy?

Enzokk

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just musing here, so forgive my lack of forensic analysis...

If a GE is called, would it be possible for GC to resign and a new Labour Leader installed like Keir Starmer for example before the vote? Labour would romp home with someone with brains and leadership qualities at the helm I think. At the moment the LP is unelectable with JC at the helm, and everyone knows it.

Hmmm.

The problem for Labour is that while Corbyn's popularity may have taken a turn we are not sure what it would be like with the membership. It may be that his numbers are down, it could be that he still has the support to win a leadership contest. The only way to know is to have another leadership election and see where it stands.

If he resigns and he still has a major support among the base it may lead to unrest if they start feeling that he was forced out. It would be better for him to stay as leader and lead them in a new election and to see where Labour ends up. You cannot deny that he increased their totals from the previous election and as bad as he has been in regards to Brexit, he carries a lot of credit from this previous performance with him.

Spook_ie wrote: »

But nothing in what you say is compatible with EU requirements, no deal = crash out = border controls for the EU, NI will still be part of the UK and subject to whatever EU borders the EU put up and if there's no deal then I don't see how the EU can put a prerequisite of a part of a sovereign state being subject to outside ( EU ) controls before trade talks.

Why not? The EU has already said they will allow flights to continue for 9 months if the UK crashes out. This will allow airlines to get their house in order to comply with the rules as they would be needed. So the EU is allowing non-EU airlines to comply with EU rules and to fly routes they currently have while not being a part of the EU.

If the EU can do that, they can surely agree with the UK that the international treaty agreed between Ireland and the UK in regards to NI still has standing and they will make the needed arrangements to ensure the peace continues on the island. This is what the EU would be interested in. Even if that were the case you know things could still kick off with Unionists if they feel threatened. But seeing that they will see very little change in their lives and relationship with the UK they would just be getting upset about very little.

As for them leaving and forcing a border on the island you know there will be violence. That is guaranteed and once it starts the other side will need very little encouragement to get involved.

In any case the plan for this would be to maintain the current arrangements for NI and to have the UK put up the borders at its ports. They will have trouble with Calais-Dover long before NI becomes a big issue. If they were to crash out I still think they will be back very soon as the chaos around getting essential supplies will mean the focus will not be on NI, unless the DUP kicks up a fuss and their supporters do the same, and the UK will be quickly forced into either agreeing a new deal with the EU that looks a lot like BRINO.

devnull

Four Brexiteers are now trying to make a no deal happen this weekend, arguing that it is unlawful to extend the date of the exit without the consent of MPs.

The letter is signed by Sir Bill Cash, former Brexit ministers David Jones and Suella Braverman, and Michael Tomlinson.

FrancieBrady

Inquitus wrote: »

Another amendment:

That looks like it was signed by the same person.

Laois_Man

BonnieSituation wrote: »

DigitalSpy?

Overclockers Brexit Thread

Duane Dibbley

Hurrache wrote: »

Some members of the ERG, most notably the ERG, only started murmuring that they may support May's deal the last day.

Ah right. Discussing it in work back in January after the confidence vote. Many of us expected this would happen

Spanish Eyes

Laois_Man wrote: »

Overclockers Brexit Thread

Lurking is the default option for me on that forum. Although in fairness some of the posters have good points and are not totally gung ho either.

Spanish Eyes

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That looks like it was signed by the same person.

I thought exactly the same thing, and then thought nah, it's just me.