Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Shelga

But the decision is no longer in their hands. They are now at the mercy of the EU drip-feeding them extensions, which is not sustainable. If no alternatives are agreed, no deal is still very much possible by default. The EU is not going to pander to them for very much longer.

Eod100

https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1110877410315116544

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A significant development, as Labour whips for Kyle/Wilson:

http://twitter.com/Peston/status/1110873375495372800

Finally it seems that Labour is holding to the motion they approved at conference. This has put me in my place a little as I didn't think Corbyn would allow this to happen.

awec wrote: »

Three line whip for confirmatory vote.

Not really sure why, surely whipping on indicative votes just undermines the whole point of it.

I guess it is about setting their stall for the next election as much as anything, but it makes staying more realistic so I don't care if they do it for optics alone. As long as we get the best result for us I don't care how it is done to be honest.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In theory yes but in practice, no. There is a huge majority on parliament that will bring the government down if it's seen to be facilitating No Deal. Also, a huge majority of the public don't want No Deal either.

I suppose it depends on the result of today and how May reacts, but I can't see a Tory party returning to Brussels looking for another extension and promising to hold a referendum.

Shelga

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I suppose it depends on the result of today and how May reacts, but I can't see a Tory party returning to Brussels looking for another extension and promising to hold a referendum.

My thoughts as well. The government's response to the petition shows they have no interest in remaining in the EU, or doing anything that will facilitate that. Therefore, if the commons can't agree on anything else, or May is successful in just ignoring them, I could see the Tories letting no deal happen still.

The UK is still very much not out of the water in regards to no deal.

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

My thoughts as well. The government's response to the petition shows they have no interest in remaining in the EU, or doing anything that will facilitate that. Therefore, if the commons can't agree on anything else, or May is successful in just ignoring them, I could see the Tories letting no deal happen still.

The UK is still very much not out of the water in regards to no deal.

The EU will facilitate an extension in the event of a GE being called. If a No Deal is imminent then MPs will collapse the government leading to a GE.

Shelga

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU will facilitate an extension in the event of a GE being called. If a No Deal is imminent then MPs will collapse the government leading to a GE.

Do MPs have the power to collapse the government? In that case, they should have done that after MV1 failed.

Won't the EU be of the mindset that a GE solves nothing?

joe40

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU will facilitate an extension in the event of a GE being called. If a No Deal is imminent then MPs will collapse the government leading to a GE.

I hope you are right but what is the mechanism open to MPs to do that. (genuine question)

I presume it is a no confidence vote in the government which will require Tory MP support to pass.
I would hope Tory remainers would have the conviction to vote that way

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU will facilitate an extension in the event of a GE being called. If a No Deal is imminent then MPs will collapse the government leading to a GE.

Surely if there is a decision to go for EU Parliament elections in the UK, will it be turned into a rerun of the referendum, and so cause a huge turnout, in particular for pro-EU candidates?

How would that work with both main parties being split on the issue?

Laois_Man

Shelga wrote: »

Do MPs have the power to collapse the government? In that case, they should have done that after MV1 failed.

Won't the EU be of the mindset that a GE solves nothing?

Depends on the result!

Eod100

Shelga wrote: »

Do MPs have the power to collapse the government? In that case, they should have done that after MV1 failed.

Won't the EU be of the mindset that a GE solves nothing?

I think there would have to be a vote of no confidence in gov or 2/3 MPs proposing an election

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Do MPs have the power to collapse the government? In that case, they should have done that after MV1 failed.

Won't the EU be of the mindset that a GE solves nothing?

A vote of no confidence would compel the government to resign. No, the EU have said they will offer a further extension in the context of a significant political event.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely if there is a decision to go for EU Parliament elections in the UK, will it be turned into a rerun of the referendum, and so cause a huge turnout, in particular for pro-EU candidates?

How would that work with both main parties being split on the issue?

No doubt the EU elections will reflect attitudes towards the EU. Both parties are split but a large majority of Labour MPs are relatively Soft Brexit. The Tories are very divided by comparison and their manifesto will be extremely short and extremely vague - at best.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A vote of no confidence would compel the government to resign. No, the EU have said they will offer a further extension in the context of a significant political event.

Was it not 'evidence of progress or a way forward' they were looking for?

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Was it not 'evidence of progress or a way forward' they were looking for?

Last week Barnier said that a longer extension must be linked to “a new event or new political process”.

awec

The EU, quite rightly, have little interest in a long extension if it just means another year of the same ****.

Water John

HOC may sit on Fri and MV3 might be on that day.
Tories also trying to prevent a follow up on today's indicative votes on Monday next.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Last week Barnier said that a longer extension must be linked to “a new event or new political process”.

The EU granted an extension until 22nd May if they approved the WA, and to 12th April if they didn't and the EU expect the UK to "indicate a way forward before this date"

Would the system completely fracturing into a divisive GE indicate a way forward?

ancapailldorcha

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Would the system completely fracturing into a divisive GE indicate a way forward?

From what I can tell, the EU would prefer dealing with Labour to the Tories as they seem more realistic about what can be achieved. Whether Labour could bend to accommodate the EP elections if they even won and the EU would allow an extension for this as well are currently unknown but I would be a lot less pessimistic.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The EU granted an extension until 22nd May if they approved the WA, and to 12th April if they didn't and the EU expect the UK to "indicate a way forward before this date"

Would the system completely fracturing into a divisive GE indicate a way forward?

The EU don't want No Deal - at all - whatever they say. Given the shift towards Soft Brexit/Remain amongst voters, an extension for a GE would be seen as an opportunity to thwart No Deal.

The country is already divided. At the very least, a GE would see the Brexit issues thrashed out in a less shallow way considering people are more informed than they were in June 2016.

An Ciarraioch

Tories to allow free vote on all amendments, with Cabinet abstaining.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU don't want No Deal - at all - whatever they say. Given the shift towards Soft Brexit/Remain amongst voters, an extension for a GE would be seen as an opportunity to thwart No Deal.

The country is already divided. At the very least, a GE would see the Brexit issues thrashed out in a less shallow way considering people are more informed than they were in June 2016.

Fair enough, but I think it will entirely depend on how today goes and how May responds.
If she pits herself against parliament I can see it getting even more fractured with no sign of healing and more damage to the body politic and the EU, for everyone else's sake, cutting it's losses.

Water John

In essence Lb are hovering around soft Brexit, a CU and much of the SM, or No Brexit. Those two strands, whilst being the diff between sitting in on decisions or not, will leave business in a similar place. the public wouldn't largely feel a difference except for voting in EU elections.

The Tories don't want the indicative votes to mature into a preferred choice on Monday as that would be the undermining of TMs Deal.

awec

Can anyone who is up to speed on parliamentary process explain how come the shadow leader of the house appears to be the one getting questioned here?

Joe_ Public

Isn’t it a shocking indictment of uk politics that the voice of remain proponents, 1m of them who marched on the capital last weekend, has to be taken up by a foreign politician in brussels in the absence of anyone in a position of authority willing to do the same in London? Tusk is taking a risk given how thin patience is wearing among a lot of his colleagues, a principled courage that is sadly lacking on uk side.

Quin_Dub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Last week Barnier said that a longer extension must be linked to “a new event or new political process”.

awec wrote: »

The EU, quite rightly, have little interest in a long extension if it just means another year of the same ****.

True, but equally they cannot be seen to "interfere" in a Countries democratic process.

So even if a GE in the UK might not produce any substantive progress in terms of Brexit , the EU would have to allow them the space and time to complete the GE and transition to a new parliament before enforcing a Brexit deadline.

Quin_Dub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories to allow free vote on all amendments, with Cabinet abstaining.

Have they filled the positions of those that resigned to support Letwin?

How many votes are actually left in "the cabinet" today?

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The EU granted an extension until 22nd May if they approved the WA, and to 12th April if they didn't and the EU expect the UK to "indicate a way forward before this date"

Would the system completely fracturing into a divisive GE indicate a way forward?

My understanding is that the date of 12 April can only be passed if:

1. The WA is passed by the UK Gov (in effect by the HoC). The WA agreement then comes into effect on 23rd May 2019.

2. The UK Gov moves the writs for EU Parl elction for May 23rd to May 26th in line with the rest of the EU. The EU woud then agree an extension of Art 50 to at least the end of 2019, and up to the end of 2020.

Now I could be wrong, but item 2 above would be a 'significant political change' or at least the manifestation of such a change.

joe40

Quin_Dub wrote: »

True, but equally they cannot be seen to "interfere" in a Countries democratic process.

So even if a GE in the UK might not produce any substantive progress in terms of Brexit , the EU would have to allow them the space and time to complete the GE and transition to a new parliament before enforcing a Brexit deadline.

I think the EU would allow space and time for a GE, but they are not obliged to.
The UK triggered A50 with March 29th deadline. That has been extended to 12th April but EU obligations end there, if WA is not approved.

It is in the EU interest to have as soft a brexit as possible so they will support anything that makes that outcome more likely, but the UK own this process.

FrancieBrady

joe40 wrote: »

I think the EU would allow space and time for a GE, but they are not obliged to.
The UK triggered A50 with March 29th deadline. That has been extended to 12th April but EU obligations end there, if WA is not approved.

It is in the EU interest to have as soft a brexit as possible so they will support anything that makes that outcome more likely, but the UK own this process.

What remains to be seen is at what point does the crossover happen.

How long can the EU hang in there waiting for these people to sort themselves out before it is doing unsustainable damage to optimism and progress of the EU. How long can one of it's members, us, go on with this uncertainty and lack of movement, given that we are into a multi year negotiations even if a WA is reached or a No Deal happens.