Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

McMurphy

I don't recall who exactly stated this (was it John major, or am Irish political representative?)

Erecting a border = erecting a target.
Target will need protected.
Protecting it will mean men in uniform.
Men in uniform become targets.
Targets will then take action to protect themselves.

That formula attack+defend+counter attack = conflict.

It's naive to assume it won't happen.

Leroy42

Peregrinus wrote: »

It generally doesn't extend to cabinet members. But, obviously, this time it does. Even if that decision has only been made retrospectively.

According to the twittersphere, May was furious and gave them a bollocking in cabinet the following morning.

TBH, who really cares. She has no authority, she votes against her own amendments and deals at this point.

None of those ministers are making decision based on what TM thinks or wants, the majority of the Tory party already consider her in the past tense in terms of her leadership.

If they did reply to her rant, I doubt they bothered, would it be any more than "So, what are you going do about it? Fire me, don't make me laugh"

And this will actually be one of the longer lasting legacys of all this Brexit mess. We have a PM openly defied by not only backbenchers of their party, but cabinet ministers. We have a PM, and other ministers, that vote against the very amendment that they argued against the minute before.

You have MEP's, actively touting that they are going to work against the government of their own country. You have large amounts of people that have simply given up on the whole idea of politics. The judiciary has been called into question, the civil service is openly discussed as working against the wishes of the state.

BonnieSituation

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I don't recall who exactly stated this (was it John major, or am Irish political representative?)

Erecting a border = erecting a target.
Target will need protected.
Protecting it will mean men in uniform.
Men in uniform become targets.
Targets will then take action to protect themselves.

That formula attack+defend+counter attack = conflict.

It's naive to assume it won't happen.

It was the Labour Shadow Northern Secretary

Professor Moriarty

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I don't recall who exactly stated this (was it John major, or am Irish political representative?)

Erecting a border = erecting a target.
Target will need protected.
Protecting it will mean men in uniform.
Men in uniform become targets.
Targets will then take action to protect themselves.

That formula attack+defend+counter attack = conflict.

It's naive to assume it won't happen.

That was Tony Lloyd, Shadow Secretary of State for NI.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When do they announce who is on panel? They will probably sterilise the audience and panel so much it will be a non event, thus giving the wrong impression of the strength of feeling.

Im more interested in how Allison Fuller Pedley packs the audience with unionist brexiteers

Leroy42

Yet another good article by Ian Dunt.

Talks about, and I know he is not the only one, that basically the UK have given up any control they pretended to have over Brexit to the EU. Whilst recently we had TM being sent back to the EU with the demand from the HoC to get a better deal (which she utterly, if rather obviously, failed to achieve) the UK is now left to beg the EU for help.

And whilst it will be portrayed as the EU needing time as well, this is nothing more than an acceptance that the PM, and the UK has a whole, has failed to deliver Brexit within the time frame they promised. TM has stated, apparently 100 times or more, that the UK would be leaving on 29th and yesterday the HoC accepted that that was impossible.

So the single issue that TM has been working on (there is little evidence that the HMG has been active in any other area apart from the very basic) she has had to admit that she cannot achieve and now she relies completely on the support of foreign organisation to help her country through a position that she herself created.

One of the paragraphs that stick out for me is:

Shortly after triggering Article 50, she called a snap general election. And then, with the snap of a finger, two months were lost campaigning. These are now exactly the same two months she is desperate to get back as a technical extension if she can somehow get her deal through.

https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/03/14/britain-pleads-to-extend-article-50-this-is-one-of-our-darke

Infini

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I don't recall who exactly stated this (was it John major, or am Irish political representative?)

Erecting a border = erecting a target.
Target will need protected.
Protecting it will mean men in uniform.
Men in uniform become targets.
Targets will then take action to protect themselves.

That formula attack+defend+counter attack = conflict.

It's naive to assume it won't happen.

Not impossible but lets be honest though a hard border wont appear on Day one, its something that emerges over time, even if there's a crash out the most at this time would be checks at ports and airports in NI as basically UK customs have said "nope" its unenforcable at this time. There's also likely to be no need for one in the medium to long term as the UK would likely be forced to its knees in the event of a crash out after a few months to seek an agreement and it wouldnt be on their terms. There's also likely the chance of a border poll within 2 years of a hard crash happening too as well as a 2nd indyref likely meaning a UI coming about eliminiating it's need if it passes.

Borderhopper wrote: »

I think the situation and the potential for violence is being underestimated. The troubles didn't start in 1969 when the British army arrived, tension had been building for years. Don't forget , the UVF were murdering people in the mid 60s long before the provisional IRA were formed.

It's not a border agreed over centuries, it's imposed on an island, with a line arbitrarily drawn following 19th century county lines that were ignored previously. Coming from the border, I can tell you that smuggling is definitely not seen as criminality. I can say this as someone with relatives in HMRC. We didn't want it, it cuts us off from where our people come from (most people in Derry are originally from Donegal, and very conscious of that fact), and if we can profit from it, then that's our right. Not saying this is right, but that's the prevailing view.

As regards to young people not wanting a return to violence, the anniversary of the shankill bombing was 5 months ago. In 1993 I was 13, and25 years ago was 1968. Ancient history. History in Ireland is both close and faraway. Don't assume just because something awful happened 25 years ago it stops something awful happening now

Should be said that while the tensions, the discrimination and the resentment had been building up for many years prior to the PIRA it was the likes of bloody Sunday that finally caused things to tip over and drove energy from the civil rights movement into the IRA bombing campaigns and such. It was essentially the failure of the British State at that time allowing ignorant twats like those in the DUP today to have their way that helped create the situation that lasted for 30 years till the GFA.

A resurgence of dissident activity in the event of a hard border is certainly a strong possibility but not necessarily an absolute though. One thing I can see happening in the event of a Hard Brexit is the strong possibility of an organized reunification movement emerging from the likes of Border Communities against Brexit as the effects from this will affect everyone regardless of background, it affects businesses and farming alike and this is the thing that could change things as reunification with the rest of Ireland would not be a loss but a gain especially as they'd regain rights and grants from the EU that the UK wont be able to afford anymore.

Difference between then and now is back then things were purely sectarian and there was no outlet or way foward for those being discriminated hence those who advocated armed conflict easily gained support. Now there is a way foward through peaceful demonstration and the likes of the sectarian BS that helped fuel the troubles wouldn't be tolerated now.

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

Should be said that while the tensions, the discrimination and the resentment had been building up for many years prior to the PIRA it was the likes of bloody Sunday that finally caused things to tip over and drove energy from the civil rights movement into the IRA bombing campaigns and such. It was essentially the failure of the British State at that time allowing ignorant twats like those in the DUP today to have their way that helped create the situation that lasted for 30 years till the GFA.

A resurgence of dissident activity in the event of a hard border is certainly a strong possibility but not necessarily an absolute though. One thing I can see happening in the event of a Hard Brexit is the strong possibility of an organized reunification movement emerging from the likes of Border Communities against Brexit as the effects from this will affect everyone regardless of background, it affects businesses and farming alike and this is the thing that could change things as reunification with the rest of Ireland would not be a loss but a gain especially as they'd regain rights and grants from the EU that the UK wont be able to afford anymore.

Difference between then and now is back then things were purely sectarian and there was no outlet or way foward for those being discriminated hence those who advocated armed conflict easily gained support. Now there is a way foward through peaceful demonstration and the likes of the sectarian BS that helped fuel the troubles wouldn't be tolerated now.

Good post. However, I wouldn't be so certain that sectarian divisions, many of which remain, wouldn't re-emerge. Feelings already run high. It wouldn't take much for violence to reignite as there are plenty who would be happy to stir up trouble and exploit Brexit tensions. A prime example being the car bomb in Derry recently.

Infini

McGiver wrote: »

Yes, she does but their democracy had never been strong, its a weak system. The English system has been exposed as totally unfit for purpose in the process. The fptp, the HoC lobbies, the divisions, the strange procedures with nothing in writing outlining what is legal or illegal - which anyway May can simply ignore if she wishes to, absence of a written codified constitution etc. If they had a PR system, a proper constitution and a constitutional court (like any other civilised country) they wouldn't be in this bloody mess, and the PM would be sued at constitutional court and have legislation a annulled if they tried to hold the Parliament in contempt!

If they even survive this I'd honestly expect they're gonna have to look at a serious reform of their parliament and system of government, Brexit has clearly exposed the utter decrepit state of their government and how utterly lacking in representation it's become. They cant go on like this.

Dyr

Infini wrote: »

Should be said that while the tensions, the discrimination and the resentment had been building up for many years prior to the PIRA it was the likes of bloody Sunday that finally caused things to tip over and drove energy from the civil rights movement into the IRA bombing campaigns and such. It was essentially the failure of the British State at that time allowing ignorant twats like those in the DUP today to have their way that helped create the situation that lasted for 30 years till the GFA.

The DUP didn't exist at the time, so you can't pin it on them, the problem was Unionism as a whole and a British Government that put its own interests first.


That is still the problem.

The difference now is theres more Taigs knocking about up there and (hopefully) an Irish government that willing to lean into the frame backed by the EU.

demfad

Infini wrote: »

Should be said that while the tensions, the discrimination and the resentment had been building up for many years prior to the PIRA it was the likes of bloody Sunday that finally caused things to tip over and drove energy from the civil rights movement into the IRA bombing campaigns and such. It was essentially the failure of the British State at that time allowing ignorant twats like those in the DUP today to have their way that helped create the situation that lasted for 30 years till the GFA.

A resurgence of dissident activity in the event of a hard border is certainly a strong possibility but not necessarily an absolute though. One thing I can see happening in the event of a Hard Brexit is the strong possibility of an organized reunification movement emerging from the likes of Border Communities against Brexit as the effects from this will affect everyone regardless of background, it affects businesses and farming alike and this is the thing that could change things as reunification with the rest of Ireland would not be a loss but a gain especially as they'd regain rights and grants from the EU that the UK wont be able to afford anymore.

Difference between then and now is back then things were purely sectarian and there was no outlet or way foward for those being discriminated hence those who advocated armed conflict easily gained support. Now there is a way foward through peaceful demonstration and the likes of the sectarian BS that helped fuel the troubles wouldn't be tolerated now.

A state as powerful as the UK must take blame for what transpired. The PIRA, UDR etc also but the State's actions make violence more or less likely.

Where you have State violence you are more likely to get a situation where violent groups can capture the response.

The massacre at Ballymurphy is less known but the most clearcut example of British policy.

The idea was to go in there: launch a serious blatant military attack against civilians in the nationalist heartland and have the response controlled vis a vis media.

The tactical operation worked: no body was aware of the scale/cause of teh attack, teh propganda was successful (Army talking to BBC while attack still ongoing) and the IRA was blamed. Subsequent IRA response was painted as unprovoked, and used as justification for a huge clamp down which put the military in a position where they could use full force where they had advantage.

The commander had used tactics and strategy fresh from Kenya. Belfast is not Kenya, there had been troubles for 400 years and the local population could not be subdued out of all spotlight as Derry showed.

The worrying thing now is the language from Johnson, Bradley and Williamson whoch harks back towards that time.

I am not defending Paramilitaries: But the ecosystem where paramilitarism can exist and grow is controlled largely by the State.

In Ballymurphy the State deliberately created a situation to escalate paramilitarism banking it would win the escalation.

We don't need that mindset back.

Infini

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Good post. However, I wouldn't be so certain that sectarian divisions, many of which remain, wouldn't re-emerge. Feelings already run high. It wouldn't take much for violence to reignite as there are plenty who would be happy to stir up trouble and exploit Brexit tensions. A prime example being the car bomb in Derry recently.

True the car bomb was blatantly stupid and so was that so called IRA "postal" bomb thing the other week but truthfully they're getting no sort of traction really they look like total gobshítes and fools. If they end up killing some innocent person it's likely to backfire on them not gain any sort of support. They don't have the fuel of a discriminated population to generate the same level of violence like the PIRA back in its heyday and likely it will be easier today to track down these fools. The trouble's was a buildup of year's of discrimination and the choking off of a legitimate outlet for grievances that allowed it to escalate to the level it did it's not likely to happen to the same level today though they could still cause a fair bit of trouble.

joeysoap

Did the labour party really say ‘now is not the time for a second referendum’ last night? (SNP MP on QT last night said this)

Joe_ Public

joeysoap wrote: »

Did the labour party really say ‘now is not the time for a second referendum’ last night? (SNP MP on QT last night said this)

I believe the thinking is that the time to bring that amendment was next week after the impending march for a 2nd referendum when more momentum could build behind it. The independent group may have been well meaning in tabling the amendment but it was probably quite politically naive.

20silkcut

Infini wrote: »

True the car bomb was blatantly stupid and so was that so called IRA "postal" bomb thing the other week but truthfully they're getting no sort of traction really they look like total gobshítes and fools. If they end up killing some innocent person it's likely to backfire on them not gain any sort of support. They don't have the fuel of a discriminated population to generate the same level of violence like the PIRA back in its heyday and likely it will be easier today to track down these fools. The trouble's was a buildup of year's of discrimination and the choking off of a legitimate outlet for grievances that allowed it to escalate to the level it did it's not likely to happen to the same level today though they could still cause a fair bit of trouble.

The 20th century was a savage century.
The technology to cause death and destruction was far ahead of the technology to monitor death and destruction.

megatron989

Some interesting comments coming from the new Zealand attacker on his views of Brexit, for what it's worth. In his (twisted) mind he agrees with Brexit but says people need to understand that's it isn't and has never been an economic issue. It was always a race thing and many people voted to fight back against mass immigration, cultural displacement and globalism.
In the vein of boarder troubles and right wing lunatics, it's a scary glimpse of how these things can encourage the worst of society. To assume that he is alone in his thinking is a mistake, and should be obvious to anyone who lives in reality that he's not totally wrong in his views on why SOME PEOPLE voted the way they did.
Anyway, I don't like giving his comments much airtime but I found it interesting giving the conversation over the last few pages. And it goes without saying that our taughts are with New Zealand today.

Farmer

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I believe the thinking is that the time to bring that amendment was next week after the impending march for a 2nd referendum when more momentum could build behind it. The independent group may have been well meaning in tabling the amendment but it was probably quite politically naive.

Is there not a good chance that the ERG/DUP will short circuit all this by pushing May's deal through as it's the best they can get or, has that been blocked by Bercow or something else?

Joe_ Public

Farmer wrote: »

Is there not a good chance that the ERG/DUP will short circuit all this by pushing May's deal through as it's the best they can get or, has that been blocked by Bercow or something else?

I’m no expert on this have to admit, but assume if she gets it through this time then we’re finally approaching end game. A lot of commentators saying she has a good chance but remain sceptical myself. If she fails again, then you’d think we’re logically heading towards people’s vote or gen election, the latter still obviously corbyns preferred option. Indicative voting is there but no idea what that might turn up.

Water John

Well the DUP are in talks with the Govn't ATM. I wonder what their price will be?

One of TMs biggest hopes for the Deal to go trough rests with Lb rebels.

An Ciarraioch

The diversification of trade continues, with GB accounting for 9% of exports last month, but jumping to almost a quarter of imports. Bizarrely, imports from France doubled compared to January last year - presumably some seasonal factors at play, rather than a sudden surge in freight by ferry?

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjanuary2019/

prawnsambo

megatron989 wrote: »

Some interesting comments coming from the new Zealand attacker on his views of Brexit, for what it's worth. In his (twisted) mind he agrees with Brexit but says people need to understand that's it isn't and has never been an economic issue. It was always a race thing and many people voted to fight back against mass immigration, cultural displacement and globalism.
In the vein of boarder troubles and right wing lunatics, it's a scary glimpse of how these things can encourage the worst of society. To assume that he is alone in his thinking is a mistake, and should be obvious to anyone who lives in reality that he's not totally wrong in his views on why SOME PEOPLE voted the way they did.
Anyway, I don't like giving his comments much airtime but I found it interesting giving the conversation over the last few pages. And it goes without saying that our taughts are with New Zealand today.

I'd be very wary of taking anything that lunatic says at face value. Bellingcat have done a fairly deep analysis of his output and conclude that a lot of what he says and what he attributes is actually designed to create more division and strife.

trashcan

Farmer wrote: »

Is there not a good chance that the ERG/DUP will short circuit all this by pushing May's deal through as it's the best they can get or, has that been blocked by Bercow or something else?

You can't be surprised at anything anymore, but I certainly wouldn't rule this out. The ERG can probably see the whole project disappearing over the horizon if Mays vote doesn't get through, so in desperation they might back it. More problematic for the DUP as it would leave the hated backstop in place.

On the other siðe you might have some Tory remainders emboldened and see it as a chance to kill Brexit if they can see off the WA deal again. Really hard one to call.

ancapailldorcha

No insults please. Post deleted.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The diversification of trade continues, with GB accounting for 9% of exports last month, but jumping to almost a quarter of imports. Bizarrely, imports from France doubled compared to January last year - presumably some seasonal factors at play, rather than a sudden surge in freight by ferry?

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjanuary2019/

That 9% is a little misleading though. 40% of our food exports go to Britain.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That 9% is a little misleading though. 40% of our food exports go to Britain.

In an ideal world, how much of the UK's hampered exports to the EU could Ireland take to mitigate this I wonder?

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1106544423868030976

Another £1 billion should suffice.

ambro25

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The diversification of trade continues, with GB accounting for 9% of exports last month, but jumping to almost a quarter of imports. Bizarrely, imports from France doubled compared to January last year - presumably some seasonal factors at play, rather than a sudden surge in freight by ferry?

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjanuary2019/

Coincidentally there was a piece in today's "daily news digest" email (Paperjam news, Luxembourg, paperjam.lu) about French exporters to the UK down €6bn since the 2016 ref, with much of it attributed to the £ tumble, and expecting another €0.5bn down by end 2019.

So those increasing imports in IE, may well be down to Brexit-mitigating diversification efforts by French exporters.

Professor Moriarty

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In an ideal world, how much of the UK's hampered exports to the EU could Ireland take to mitigate this I wonder?

I dunno. I'd say you'd simply have to wait until a deal was agreed or, in the event of a hard Brexit, just take eah day as it comes. Either way, it would be very stupid for exporters not to be actively exploring other markets.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1106544423868030976

Another £1 billion should suffice.

Hmmm. Adding 'additional provisions' to domestic law. The Tories aren't trying to sneakily undermine the backstop? Surely not their style? Say it ain't so.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hmmm. Adding 'additional provisions' to domestic law. The Tories aren't trying to sneakily undermine the backstop? Surely not their style? Say it ain't so.

Changing the WA needs ratification from all of the EU27 so what'd be the point at this late stage?