Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Eod100

awec wrote: »

The EU, quite rightly, have little interest in a long extension if it just means another year of the same ****.

Yup, if all our heads are melted from it can only imagine how the MEPs and civil servants in EU are feeling about it.

Leroy42

Isn't the next round of budget negotiations commencing after the commencement of the EU parliament? Would any extension mean that the UK would need to play a role in that, and thus has the ensuing liabilities?

I don't think it is simply a case of putting up elections and then resigning soon after.

10000maniacs

awec wrote: »

Can anyone who is up to speed on parliamentary process explain how come the shadow leader of the house appears to be the one getting questioned here?

The Tory leadership have already agreed a withdrawal settlement. Labour want it changed.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How long can the EU hang in there waiting for these people to sort themselves out before it is doing unsustainable damage to optimism and progress of the EU. How long can one of it's members, us, go on with this uncertainty and lack of movement, given that we are into a multi year negotiations even if a WA is reached or a No Deal happens.

The current mess is not ideal for us, but it is better than Brexit would be, any Brexit.

Even if the UK are still arguing about this in 2050, it will be better than any sort of Brexit before then, since they will remain members, trade will be unimpeded, freedom of movement will continue etc.

The main victim of a long period of uncertainty will be the UK, as businesses, investment and people will continue move to the rest of the EU to look for certainty.

briany

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Isn’t it a shocking indictment of uk politics that the voice of remain proponents, 1m of them who marched on the capital last weekend, has to be taken up by a foreign politician in brussels in the absence of anyone in a position of authority willing to do the same in London? Tusk is taking a risk given how thin patience is wearing among a lot of his colleagues, a principled courage that is sadly lacking on uk side.

Well, EU politicians broadly want the UK to remain. It appears that most English constituencies voted Leave, so the representative MPs have to be seen to honour this, or they'll be terrified that betrayal talk will torpedo them at the next election. Even if people have changed their mind, have they been visiting their MPs clinic to persuade them that the tide is turning? That'd be a wise strategy to along with the big public demonstration we saw last weekend, imo.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Isn't the next round of budget negotiations commencing after the commencement of the EU parliament? Would any extension mean that the UK would need to play a role in that, and thus has the ensuing liabilities?

I don't think it is simply a case of putting up elections and then resigning soon after.

They are. The EU budgets for seven year cycles with the current budget ending in 2020.

As regarding your question, I have no idea. The Withdrawal Agreement period ended in December 2020 for presumably this reason.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The current mess is not ideal for us, but it is better than Brexit would be, any Brexit.

Even if the UK are still arguing about this in 2050, it will be better than any sort of Brexit before then, since they will remain members, trade will be unimpeded, freedom of movement will continue etc.

The main victim of a long period of uncertainty will be the UK, as businesses, investment and people will continue move to the rest of the EU to look for certainty.

Would you make a major investment in the south at the minute, or in the border catchment area? I wouldn't think so.

Harry Palmr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Would you make a major investment in the south at the minute, or in the border catchment area? I wouldn't think so.

A company called Falcon Real Estate have committed to spending about a third of a billion euro in Waterford so it's not as if investment has ground to a halt. I'm not aware of any of the usual FDI suspects holding off bercow of Brexit (more likely be due to shoddy infrastructure or legal threats from landowners)

FrancieBrady

Harry Palmr wrote: »

A company called Falcon Real Estate have committed to spending about a third of a billion euro in Waterford so it's not as if investment has ground to a halt. I'm not aware of any of the usual FDI suspects holding off bercow of Brexit (more likely be due to shoddy infrastructure or legal threats from landowners)

I am sure it won't grind to a halt. But I am also sure you wouldn't necessarily hear about somebody not investing. There is a very heightened sense of uncertainty in the border hinterland and that must lead to conservative economic activity.

Eod100

Is there another vote just now to allow Letwin takeover of business? Thought that already happened

Joe_ Public

briany wrote: »

Well, EU politicians broadly want the UK to remain. It appears that most English constituencies voted Leave, so the representative MPs have to be seen to honour this, or they'll be terrified that betrayal talk will torpedo them at the next election. Even if people have changed their mind, have they been visiting their MPs clinic to persuade them that the tide is turning? That'd be a wise strategy to along with the big public demonstration we saw last weekend, imo.

I understand the political undercurrents, that’s how the game works after all. But are all the dup and erg elected mps honouring their constituents in their passionate endorsement of the no deal side? Why would it be so terrible for remain MPs to do the same? Some like jess phillips are for sure, but I’m more talking about the leadership which is why I believe Keir Starmer deserves at least some small credit because I do think he’s pushing it.

Listening to some of the brussels correspondents i wouldn’t be too sure that patience isn’t running very thin among Europe politicians. Hard to gauge exactly though.

ShooterSF

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The current mess is not ideal for us, but it is better than Brexit would be, any Brexit.

Even if the UK are still arguing about this in 2050, it will be better than any sort of Brexit before then, since they will remain members, trade will be unimpeded, freedom of movement will continue etc.

The main victim of a long period of uncertainty will be the UK, as businesses, investment and people will continue move to the rest of the EU to look for certainty.

The current mess is taking up the EU's time and (rightly so) patience. If it is going to drag on and on better they bicker among themselves outside. Even if we take an economic hit at least our news cycle won't be obsessed with it. Heck one of the worst votes in EU history just passed and our media seems more interested in brexit.

Eod100

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1110924724132085760

Dont be at yourself

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1110924724132085760

Bercow also seems to have ruled out MV3 without a substantial change.

Loafing Oaf

briany wrote: »

Well, EU politicians broadly want the UK to remain. It appears that most English constituencies voted Leave, so the representative MPs have to be seen to honour this, or they'll be terrified that betrayal talk will torpedo them at the next election.

Yeah calling for a second referendum on essentially the same issue is an inherently dicey position for any MP to take, even one who adopted a strong remain stance before the 'first' one. Very easy to accuse them of thumbing their nose at the democratic process, making the people over again until they give the answer the politicians want...

Headshot

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Bercow also seems to have ruled out MV3 without a substantial change.

ya just listening to that

There was quite audible gasps

FrancieBrady

Bercow on voting proceedure:

Bercow: Members may not answer Yeh or Nay in the same vote...

Heckler: Unless they are in the Cabinet.

Eod100

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Bercow also seems to have ruled out MV3 without a substantial change.

Yup seems like that.

Wonder where that leaves everything..

briany

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I understand the political undercurrents, that’s how the game works after all. But are all the dup and erg elected mps honouring their constituents in their passionate endorsement of the no deal side? Why would it be so terrible for remain MPs to do the same? Some like jess phillips are for sure, but I’m more talking about the leadership which is why I believe Keir Starmer deserves at least some small credit because I do think he’s pushing it.

Listening to some of the brussels correspondents i wouldn’t be too sure that patience isn’t running very thin among Europe politicians. Hard to gauge exactly though.

The DUP, as we know, are even more ideologically-charged than the rest. Principally, their aim is to have no hardening of the sea border. The DUP expects their constituents to go along with them once this is fulfilled. It appears that a majority of Unionists voted in favour of Brexit (about 60 percent) and that's who the DUP are representing. You'd think the other 40 percent might vote for another party if Brexit proves to make NI into an economic basket case, but sending a message after the damage has not only been done, but is also irreversible might seem like a pointless exercise. There's also the danger of splitting the Unionist vote, which voters will be reminded of.

There should be nothing stopping Remain MPs (that is ones representing Remain constituencies) to at least acknowledge the importance of last week's demonstrations. Keir Starmer is MP for a constituency that voted overwhelmingly to remain, so it's not a surprise he's pushing so hard. It's a tough ask for MPs to explicitly go against the wishes of their constituents. And it's hard to ask that they do in a way because the number one thing politicians get criticised for is that they make promises they don't keep.

Laois_Man

Question: What exactly does "Managed no deal" mean?

Dont be at yourself

Laois_Man wrote: »

Question: What exactly does "Managed no deal" mean?

Planes keep flying, electricity keeps flowing etc I presume.

seamus

Laois_Man wrote: »

Question: What exactly does "Managed no deal" mean?

It's a nice way of saying that it happens intentionally rather than by default. And thus enacting lots of emergency legislation and temporary trade deals to keep the lights on.

It's another unicorn; "We can have a no deal in two weeks time and be adequately prepared for it in that time".

Laois_Man

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Planes keep flying, electricity keeps flowing etc I presume.

But surely the Baron motion and the Fysh motion are the exact same thing then?

Eod100

Someone forgot to tell them HOC not planned to sit on Friday. Could very well change though.

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1110928949616566272

Joe_ Public

briany wrote: »

The DUP, as we know, are even more ideologically-charged than the rest. Principally, their aim is to have no hardening of the sea border. The DUP expects their constituents to go along with them once this is fulfilled. It appears that a majority of Unionists voted in favour of Brexit (about 60 percent) and that's who the DUP are representing. You'd think the other 40 percent might vote for another party if Brexit proves to make NI into an economic basket case, but sending a message after the damage has not only been done, but is also irreversible might seem like a pointless exercise. There's also the danger of splitting the Unionist vote, which voters will be reminded of.

There should be nothing stopping Remain MPs (that is ones representing Remain constituencies) to at least acknowledge the importance of last week's demonstrations. Keir Starmer is MP for a constituency that voted overwhelmingly to remain, so it's not a surprise he's pushing so hard. It's a tough ask for MPs to explicitly go against the wishes of their constituents. And it's hard to ask that they do in a way because the number one thing politicians get criticised for is that they make promises they don't keep.

Ok i get all that, no real argument. But from memory, Liam Fox, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart, Dave Davis, John Redwood among many others (i won’t even bother with Kate Hoey), are all in remain constituencies so is it simply ok for them to be staunch brexiteers - because the will of the people etc - while remainers have to play it cagey and surf all the options. In a way, when it comes down to it, i will say for the dup that they at least have a principle to stand by - much as i oppose it - unlike their erstwhile friends and admirers among the erg.

bob mcbob

The gloves are really coming off in the Tory civil war

Rees-Mogg (Eton) accuses Boles (Winchester) of making a Wykehamist point: "highly intelligent but fundamentally wrong."

Then he throws public school shade on Old Etonian Letwin of being more Winchester than Eton.

Can't see Letwin coming back from that.

Water John

Bercow really causing the Govn't bother. They would have get a motion passed, suspending the rules of the House. Some Conservative MPs who would support WA would not support such a motion.
Leadsom will be even more waspish.

Headshot

Water John wrote: »

Bercow really causing the Govn't bother. They would have get a motion passed, suspending the rules of the House. Some Conservative MPs who would support WA would not support such a motion.

There some double standards by him that he picked No Deal indicative vote even though that was recently voted against by Parliament

Water John

I would say this is a process not, will of Parliament type vote. IWT he would also have allowed the WA in if the Govn't had offered it.

ancapailldorcha

Headshot wrote: »

There some double standards by him that he picked No Deal indicative vote even though that was recently voted against by Parliament

It's isn't a double standard at all. Indicative voting is a process by which several options are put to Parliament to see which, if any would command majority support.

Parliament only voted on a motion to avoid no deal. This wasn't much more than an expression of the House's will. It is still the legal default as things stand.