Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

BobbyBobberson

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1110955870152806400

There it is.

woohoo!!!

woohoo!!! wrote: »

May won't be got rid of so easily. She's determined to put it mildly to get her way.

Those who hold the reins of power do not often relinquish them lightly

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Bercow getting serious flak from all sides. This won't end well for parliamentary procedure.

Was this during PMQ's or in general?

Any link please and thank you

Eod100

The WitchKing of Angmar wrote: »

Those who hold the reins of power do not often relinquish them lightly

If I was her I would have retired by now and let someone else sort the mess..!

Eod100

Eod100 wrote: »

If I was her I would have retired by now and let someone else sort the mess..!

I suppose...but her doing so would only add to her enmity in the public eye. Even though she wasn't supportive of Brexit in the first place you can guarantee there would be people jeering about rats jumping a sinking ship etc.

Professor Moriarty

The WitchKing of Angmar wrote: »

Was this during PMQ's or in general?

Any link please and thank you

Here. Scroll down to 16.12pm.

briany

The WitchKing of Angmar wrote: »

I suppose...but her doing so would only add to her enmity in the public eye. Even though she wasn't supportive of Brexit in the first place you can guarantee there would be people jeering about rats jumping a sinking ship etc.

I'd say Theresa May could afford to live somewhere out of the way, if public opinion was really that set against her. Most reasonable people would see that her position was impossible and that she's had to play some of the most difficult political hopscotch in the entire history of British politics. Tony Blair can still show his face in public despite having led the UK into a completely needless and unpopular war, so I expect May could do the same after a period of time.

Spook_ie

https://news.sky.com/story/live-mps-to-vote-on-brexit-alternatives-as-theresa-may-battles-to-save-her-deal-11676313
So May says she'll go before phase 2 of the negotiations provided her deal is passed, still heading for no deal IMO because CP remainers will be worried about a hard line Brexiteer becoming PM.

EDIT Also Bercow has still disallowed an MV on it for this session of parliament.

Headshot

May bites the bullet. She has surprised me and it has me worried that we'd see the likes of fecking Boris now.

Professor Moriarty

Headshot wrote: »

May bites the bullet. She has surprised me and it has me worried that we'd see the likes of fecking Boris now.

Imagine if Boris became leader and installed a Brexiteer/ERG cabinet. How many Tory MPs would defect?

briany

Spook_ie wrote: »

So May says she'll go before phase 2 of the negotiations provided her deal is passed, still heading for no deal IMO because CP remainers will be worried about a hard line Brexiteer becoming PM.

Thankfully, the job of British PM isn't taken by force. It must be voted upon. So, if there are more Brexit moderates than hardliners in the party, how would a hardliner win it? And wouldn't it be an act of party suicide to do so anyway? There's already been resignations due to the party's shift to the right. A further shift to the right would surely prompt more resignations.

Itssoeasy

The DUP aren't releasing a statement today. Were they meant to be releasing one today on brexit ? Well they aren't now it seems.

ancapailldorcha

Headshot wrote: »

May bites the bullet. She has surprised me and it has me worried that we'd see the likes of fecking Boris now.

He was the favorite last I checked and remains popular among the membership of the Conservative party.

funkey_monkey

But the WA is still a bad deal. JRM even said it is worse than remaining. Will this do anything to change the minds of the DUP?

Spook_ie

briany wrote: »

Thankfully, the job of British PM isn't taken by force. It must be voted upon. So, if there are more Brexit moderates than hardliners in the party, how would a hardliner win it? And wouldn't it be an act of party suicide to do so anyway? There's already been resignations due to the party's shift to the right. A further shift to the right would surely prompt more resignations.

Well firstly the Brexit WA would be agreed so it comes down to negotiating the trade deal etc.

It doesn't matter about more moderates than hardliners it's votes for not votes against so that would depend on who wants the job, probably Boris and who's going to run against him?

Loafing Oaf

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The DUP aren't releasing a statement today. Were they meant to be releasing one today on brexit ? Well they aren't now it seems.

A sign that they are thinking seriously about drinking the WA Koolaid?

Headshot

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He was the favorite last I checked and remains popular among the membership of the Conservative party.

The only thing against him is this colleagues cannot stand him, so they have to put 2 people up for election and hopefully one isnt Boris

The election will then go to the members who are idiots and will vote for Boris

joe40

briany wrote: »

Spook_ie wrote: »

So May says she'll go before phase 2 of the negotiations provided her deal is passed, still heading for no deal IMO because CP remainers will be worried about a hard line Brexiteer becoming PM.

Thankfully, the job of British PM isn't taken by force. It must be voted upon. So, if there are more Brexit moderates than hardliners in the party, how would a hardliner win it? And wouldn't it be an act of party suicide to do so anyway? There's already been resignations due to the party's shift to the right. A further shift to the right would surely prompt more resignations.

Thats the dreaded "split" the tories, even moderated Tories fear, but it might become inevitable. Brexit has really exposed the divisions.

Itssoeasy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He was the favorite last I checked and remains popular among the membership of the Conservative party.

While I won't quote specific examples for fear of getting a talking to from a mod. Lots of things have been popular amongst many groups of people it doesn't mean it's a good thing.

Spook_ie

Headshot wrote: »

The only thing against him is this colleagues cannot stand him, so they have to put 2 people up for election and hopefully one isnt Boris

The election will then go to the members who are idiots and will vote for Boris

You don't need two that's how May got in by default.

Itssoeasy

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

A sign that they are thinking seriously about drinking the WA Koolaid?

I didn't hear what they were specifically they were supposed to be making a statement about, other than it being some version of saying no about the WA.

Headshot

Spook_ie wrote: »

You don't need two that's how May got in by default.

True but I was listing to Sky news and one of the Tories who's responsible for the elections wants a proper competition this time

Eod100

Is May stepping down conditional on all the ERG backing her to get deal through? Don't think DUP statement will back May's deal when they oppose it so much

Itssoeasy

Spook_ie wrote: »

You don't need two that's how May got in by default.

Theresa May got in because the two others who would have been against her in the final vote pulled out. She didn't run unopposed for Tory party leader.

Enzokk

May offering to resign to get her deal through is just another bribe from a desperate politician. Do anything and say anything to get it done. The fact remains that whoever takes over will have a shambles of a deal to contend with. If they are a leaver then they will have the deal as it keeps the UK aligned with the EU rules due to the GFA. If they are a remainer, it is too far apart from the EU for their liking.

I think Nicola Sturgeon says it best, again it seems:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1110958913678176258

May is not the problem here, Brexit is the problem and you are not going to solve Brexit without either doing harm to the country or upsetting a lot of people.

Itssoeasy

Eod100 wrote: »

Is May stepping down conditional on all the ERG backing her to get deal through? Don't think DUP statement will back May's deal when they oppose it so much

It's reported she'll resign when "brexit is delivered" which I find an interesting way of putting it. There isn't Going to be a DUP statement tonight now.

briany

Spook_ie wrote: »

Well firstly the Brexit WA would be agreed so it comes down to negotiating the trade deal etc.

It doesn't matter about more moderates than hardliners it's votes for not votes against so that would depend on who wants the job, probably Boris and who's going to run against him?

If Boris ran on a platform of continuing Euro-scepticism, then it invites another contender, as it's not exactly a view that unites the party. Secondly, even if he ran unopposed, would he maintain the support of his whole party? All those Remain MPs would surely become a major thorn in the side of his plans.

Eod100

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It's reported she'll resign when "brexit is delivered" which I find an interesting way of putting it. There isn't Going to be a DUP statement tonight now.

Seems to be a few different wordings of her statement going around. Other was before next stage of negotiations. Who knows really tbh

Inquitus

2 Things:

#1 Its not clear that she can get MV3 across the line, even with the DUP and most of the ERG, there's still about 10 ERG who won't go for it, and then a number of remainers who may prefer to see the outcome of indicative votes which can deliver the softer Brexit they want.
#2 Bercow may not allow it to be brought back, as per his comments earlier.

It may just be that Indicative votes are given the chance they need to see if consensus can be reached, and a Softer Brexit the conclusion. MV3 can always be brought back by Bercow if its the only way forwards I guess.

Itssoeasy

Eod100 wrote: »

Seems to be a few different wordings of her statement going around. Other was before next stage of negotiations. Who knows really tbh

But surely the wording of what she said is coming from people in the actual room. If it's the room where the result of the vote of confidence happened last year it's not that big a room. I'm asking how is there a few different wordings from one speech she gave ?