Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

devnull

Hurrache wrote: »

Does go to show what many of us have been saying for a long long time, the issue for the Tories is nothing to do with the backstop, it was just a convenient scapegoat.

It's all about political games at the end of the day and self-preservation, many people are voting for and against certain things not because they are necessarily for and against those things, but for their own agendas and reasons of self interest and to further those agendas.

They are not voting in good faith basically.

Inquitus

What time are the results due?

Spanish Eyes

I'm sure it's just a comfort break or something, but sitting has been suspended in HoC.

Is it just a break or something more significant, anyone know.

FrancieBrady

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I'm sure it's just a comfort break or something, but sitting has been suspended in HoC.

Is it just a break or something more significant, anyone know.

No. Bercow said he would suspend for a short time after 7 earlier today when setting out the proceedings.

Kermit.de.frog

Ian Duncan Smith to support the deal.

Capt'n Midnight

BBC Waiting for a DUP announcement ?

Water John

Patrick Wintour:
'A consequence of May's likely resignation is that the unresolved question of Britain's future relations with Europe, to be negotiated in phase 2 of talks, will largely be decided on hustings in a Tory Party leadership contest. Fewer than 120,000 deciding on behalf of 46m.'

Thargor

Rees Mogg and Johnson have called this a vassal state agreement and a betrayal and everything else and now they're supporting it, is anyone going to ask them to explain that?

ancapailldorcha

Thargor wrote: »

Rees Mogg and Johnson have called this a vassal state agreement and a betrayal and everything else and now they're supporting it, is anyone going to ask them to explain that?

That would seem unlikely. The media here is either owned by Brexiters, not influential or craven.

trashcan

devnull wrote: »

I love the way the government keep banging on about the damage to democracy if certain things are voted for and carried out, when the ballot paper simply asked if the UK would remain a member of the EU. Customs Union, Free Trade areas and EEA etc memberships as a non member still means that the result is upheld.

The argument that leaving and agreeing certain other terms and deals with the EU is not Brexit and therefore democracy is dead is utterly flawed, because the ballot paper didn't ask that kind of question. It is just a presumption that is being made. If they want to ask that question, they should lobby for a referendum doing exactly that.

Indeed, the document written as a result of the Referendum Act 2015, Free Movement, Customs Union, in fact a whole range of options were marked as possible outcomes if the UK voted to no longer be a member of the European Union.Therefore to go for one of these outcomes would be consistent with the referendum text on leave.

Absolutely. The dishonesty now from Brexiters is staggering. They were saying during the campaign that of course it didn't mean they'd be exiting the Single Market. How is anyone still falling for their BS at this stage ?

brickster69

Water John wrote: »

Patrick Wintour:
'A consequence of May's likely resignation is that the unresolved question of Britain's future relations with Europe, to be negotiated in phase 2 of talks, will largely be decided on hustings in a Tory Party leadership contest. Fewer than 120,000 deciding on behalf of 46m.'

It wont even get to that point if the WA does not pass. It will be no deal unless Parliament revoke A50

bilston

A couple of interesting polls by Sky News.

Only 26% of the public support May's deal

The only outcome with a positive outcome (more agreement than disagreement) is another referendum.

bilston

brickster69 wrote: »

It wont even get to that point if the WA does not pass. It will be no deal unless Parliament revoke A50

It looks to me as though the WA will squeak through, it will be bloody tight though.

But then can they get it past the speaker?!

Spanish Eyes

bilston wrote: »

It looks to me as though the WA will squeak through, it will be bloody tight though.

But then can they get it past the speaker?!

Will Bercow allow another vote on WA?

Hurrache

JRM live on Sky News now, might be entertaining.

briany

Thargor wrote: »

Rees Mogg and Johnson have called this a vassal state agreement and a betrayal and everything else and now they're supporting it, is anyone going to ask them to explain that?

Mogg has been fairly clear on his position - he doesn't like the deal, but he likes it better than no Brexit at all, which he would probably call an even greater betrayal.

He's pivoted to "Brexit as a process, rather than an event." If you ask me, it was always going to be a process. The impatience to get it all now shows a really immature attitude. Given that it has generational implications, the process of leaving the EU taking a few years is not an unreasonable ask.

Wanting it all now also has a smash-and-grab whiff to it, like they want it all to happen while passions are high and don't want any time for reasoned discussion now that some political realities hove into view. For some reason it seems to me that if someone wants you to rush into a decision, they don't have your best interests in mind. They want you to make one before you've had time to think.

bilston

Hurrache wrote: »

JRM live on Sky News now, might be entertaining.

Credit to him for admiring Theresa May for the way she took the kniving in the back...

bilston

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Will Bercow allow another vote on WA?

Well if he does he will have to back track on his previous ruling.

Spanish Eyes

Has May resigned, or is it still conditional on WA passing. Sorry can't keep up.

Capt'n Midnight

HoC debating postponing exiting EU on Friday night.

Hermy

Is May just trying to hang on long enough to overtake Gordon Browne?

Hurrache

bilston wrote: »

Credit to him for admiring Theresa May for the way she took the kniving in the back...

Amazing isn't it. He said today is a day to admire her and celebrate what she's done. And that he's not abandoning the DUP. He suggests that they may abstain from the vote.

boggerman1

Hurrache wrote: »

JRM live on Sky News now, might be entertaining.

He really is a horrible individual.posh sounding doesn't disguise his personality.quoting Latin to sound great and superior

Marengo

If this is democracy in action in the 21st century I fear dictatorships are going to come back into fashion!

bilston

Interestingly Beth Rigby has just said that there are still "15 or so refusniks" in the ERG.

This probably hangs on Nigel Dodds and the DUP.

Eod100

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Has May resigned, or is it still conditional on WA passing. Sorry can't keep up.

Conditional on WA passing afaik

An Ciarraioch

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Has May resigned, or is it still conditional on WA passing. Sorry can't keep up.

Conditional on WA passing, or an alternative being accepted - will leave when "phase one" is completed, which could still be another 12 months away, according to some scenarios.

Kermit.de.frog

If the DUP hold out and threaten Brexiteers defacto with no Brexit at all they will find themselves very marginalised!

Think there must be a huge amount of pressure being brought to bare on them now!

An Ciarraioch

bilston wrote: »

Interestingly Beth Rigby has just said that there are still "15 or so refusniks" in the ERG.

This probably hangs on Nigel Dodds and the DUP.

Steve Baker is the ERG whip, so if/when he ever switches, that's when the Withdrawal Agreement becomes likely to pass.

bilston

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Conditional on WA passing, or an alternative being accepted - will leave when "phase one" is completed, which could still be another 12 months away, according to some scenarios.

If her deal passes then the UK will leave the EU on 22 May and then Theresa May will probably step down around then.

If the deal doesn't pass then I don't think anyone has any idea what will happen.