Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

bilston wrote: »

Interestingly Beth Rigby has just said that there are still "15 or so refusniks" in the ERG.

This probably hangs on Nigel Dodds and the DUP.

They just said there's no way enough members form te ERG have turned in order to allow May's deal be passed.

listermint

I've a feeling it will pass.the ERG and the DUP have already been in talks how to back track on the entire deal later on at some stage when it suits them no doubt at the time pointing to overwhelming public support against he deal and they'll use that as their means to do so.

The UK government is just plainly not to be trusted whatsoever. I wouldn't trust them to mind my car outside Jones road on match day. These people are the lowest of low and dishonesty comes second nature.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

They just said there's no way enough members form te ERG have turned in order to allow May's deal be passed.

So the Tories are split and the ERG is split. Great.

Hurrache

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Steve Baker is the ERG whip, so if/when he ever switches, that's when the Withdrawal Agreement becomes likely to pass.

Hurrache wrote: »

They just said there's no way enough members form te ERG have turned in order to allow May's deal be passed.

listermint wrote: »

I've a feeling it will pass.the ERG and the DUP have already been in talks how to back track on the entire deal later on at

Doesn't look like Baker is for turning based on this quote from him,
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1110991096354615296

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So the Tories are split and the ERG is split. Great.

Seems to be the case alright.

Loafing Oaf

MV3 now evens to pass with PP, 8/11 to go down.

Inquitus

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

MV3 now evens to pass with PP, 8/11 to go down.

Bet void if its not brought though! So you have to multiply the odds of Bercow not blocking it with evens to get the real chance it passes.

bilston

Hurrache wrote: »

They just said there's no way enough members form te ERG have turned in order to allow May's deal be passed.

Yeah heard that, we will see what happens come Friday, 48 hours is more than enough time for heads to be turned.

It will be interesting to see what happens if the HoC votes for the Confirmatory Referendum tonight. If the WA passes I can't see May or whoever the UK PM is abiding by the will of Parliament.

Pa8301

When you think about it, this whole thing of Rees Mogg and the rest of his cohort backing the WA as long as May resigns is crazy. And May is as bad for agreeing to/suggesting it. I mean, this is the future of their country that they are deciding and they are engaging in political horsetrading. On the face of it, the reasons for backing or not backing the WA should have nothing to with whether May stays on as PM. It just shows how these people don't actually care about their country.

Inquitus

Pa8301 wrote: »

When you think about it, this whole thing of Rees Mogg and the rest of his cohort backing the WA as long as May resigns is crazy. And May is as bad for agreeing to/suggesting it. I mean, this is the future of their country that they are deciding and they are engaging in political horsetrading. On the face of it, the reasons for backing or not backing the WA should have nothing to with whether May stays on as PM. It just shows how these people don't actually care about their country.

The ERG's angle is to take the leadership of the Tory party then act in bad faith and try and alter the direction of Brexit in phase 2 of the negotiations.

Water John

At least 24/30 hardline ERG. The Govn't would have to swing a lot of LB MPs to get it passed.

bob mcbob

All TM cares about now is keeping the Tory party together and her WA is the only hope.

It would be ironic then if Boris succeeded her.

This is what Ruth Davidson said when TM was made leader.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/

Headshot

MPs have finished voting on the Eight Brexit options

Inquitus

Water John wrote: »

At least 24/30 hardline ERG. The Govn't would have to swing a lot of LB MPs to get it passed.

They would, they have a majority of 4, so 2 ERG votes against makes it parity, 22-28 ERG votes against leaves them down by a majority of 44-56, DUP votes against or abstains that's a majority against of 54-76, so they need 27-38 Labour votes on that basis. And that's ignoring Tory remainers who will vote against.

PokeHerKing

If you're a remainer you'd be mad to back the deal. The EU will do everything they can to avoid No deal. Parliament have said it won't allow No deal.

So the only thing standing in the way of a long extension/2nd ref or revoke are voting through the WA. Coupled with the fact that if it goes through and May steps down you could get a bojo PM.

nc6000

How likely now for MV3 to get passed, May to step down and be replaced by a Brexiteer as leader who then tries to backtrack on the WA to get a harder Brexit or reduce the severance payment?

FrancieBrady

May had to offer her job to get her deal across the line and now has to hope it fails to remain in power.
Bizarre.

An Ciarraioch

nc6000 wrote: »

How likely now for MV3 to get passed, May to step down and be replaced by a Brexiteer as leader who then tries to backtrack on the WA to get a harder Brexit or reduce the severance payment?

Still highly unlikely without the DUP.

Professor Moriarty

Inquitus wrote: »

They would, they have a majority of 4, so 2 ERG votes against makes it parity, 22-28 ERG votes against leaves them down by a majority of 44-56, DUP votes against or abstains that's a majority against of 54-76, so they need 27-38 Labour votes on that basis. And that's ignoring Tory remainers who will vote against.

Three Labour MPs voted for her deal at the second time of asking.

elvis83

Long time lurker and self-admitted idiot when it comes to politics...but does anyone else think its absolutely crazy that its only tonight, two days before the original leave date, that they are voting on the 'shape' of the brexit they want?

Larbre34

I know I should be more mature than to be sitting here grinning like Mark Francois over a Sunday Roast at the Red Lion on Her Majesty's Birthday, but my schadenfreude dial is turned up to 11 to see Baker JRM Kawcynski Hannan et al and our friends in the north disappearing politically up their own asses.

This day was always going to come, they held the line long past credibility but they never ever held any cards and it finally dawning on their ashen faces gives me immense satisfaction.

Also, trying to spin the WA as an empty formula, to borrow a phrase from our own history, is a fool's errand. It doesnt matter which Tory becomes PM, Brussels will already have won, the long term relationship deal will be within very predictable parameters and Britain will be disadvantaged from their current status no matter how you slice it.

nc6000

elvis83 wrote:

Long time lurker and self-admitted idiot when it comes to politics...but does anyone else think its absolutely crazy that its only tonight, two days before the original leave date, that they are voting on the 'shape' of the brexit they want?

That pretty much sums it up alright. It should have been done before the referendum.

trashcan

PokeHerKing wrote: »

If you're a remainer you'd be mad to back the deal. The EU will do everything they can to avoid No deal. Parliament have said it won't allow No deal.

So the only thing standing in the way of a long extension/2nd ref or revoke are voting through the WA. Coupled with the fact that if it goes through and May steps down you could get a bojo PM.

Yep, would be kind of ironic if the ERG do an about face now, but Tory remainers scuppered the deal. And if they follow Moggs reasoning, i.e. It's looking like this or no Brexit, then, as you say, why would they back it ?

lawred2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

May had to offer her job to get her deal across the line and now has to hope it fails to remain in power.
Bizarre.

Or she could, you know, go back on her word and not resign.

She could just pretend she never made the offer.

That's how it seems to work anyway

brickster69

You see even the Attorney General could not stand up and defend the Government against Bill Cash's speech. Court proceedings were launched 3 days ago.

Professor Moriarty

Still waiting for the EU to blink. Any minute now.

Pedro K

Is there any indication on when we'll know the results of the indicative votes?

MadYaker

elvis83 wrote: »

Long time lurker and self-admitted idiot when it comes to politics...but does anyone else think its absolutely crazy that its only tonight, two days before the original leave date, that they are voting on the 'shape' of the brexit they want?

Welcome to the party :pac: I've been watching the house of commons live stream for nearly an hour!

Eod100

That's a no from DUP then. Shocking..

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1111006315973890049

briany

trashcan wrote: »

Yep, would be kind of ironic if the ERG do an about face now, but Tory remainers scuppered the deal. And if they follow Moggs reasoning, i.e. It's looking like this or no Brexit, then, as you say, why would they back it ?

It's all about default outcomes. Up until recently, that was no-deal, which the ERG preferred to May's deal. Now that there is categorically not the political will for no-deal and the default outcome is looking more likely to be 2nd ref or revoke, it's more in the interest of Remainers to scupper May's deal.

boggerman1

Snarlene says NO again.so Ulster being held to ransom by bigots once again.time for Ulster farmers who support these clowns to dump them