Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

tuxy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Changing the WA needs ratification from all of the EU27 so what'd be the point at this late stage?

Helping the DUP to back down without losing face with their voters?

Leroy42

So we have the UK making unilateral announcements. MP's of the ruling party asking if there are any laws to allow them to simply ignore any deal, and now the Ag and DUP looking for

additional provisions they could add to domestic law to underline interpretations on backstop

All this whilst they have repeatedly stated they will not live up to their financial obligations unless they get what they want and are open to the idea a breaking the GFA (which IMO they already did by allowing the DUP to have the balance of power and not demanding they reopen Stormont).

And yet despite all the above, people continue to believe that a deal, whether TM's finally gets it through the HoC or not, is worth anything!

Water John

The DUP will milk this, getting special attention of AG etc, really massages their ego.

IWT at this stage TMs odds of getting it through next week are fairly high.

ancapailldorcha

tuxy wrote: »

Helping the DUP to back down without losing face with their voters?

Any changes to the WA will need to be negotiated with the EU negotiating team and then approved by the EU27's national Parliaments.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Any changes to the WA will need to be negotiated with the EU negotiating team and then approved by the EU27's national Parliaments.

There are many in the HoC, mainly the ERG but not limited to them, that will actively work to weazel out of any deal that it agreed with the EU.

If the ERG do side with TM's deal next week, it will be simply a stepping stone to the overall goal, a means to an end.

Shelga

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1106544423868030976

Another £1 billion should suffice.

How much time has been wasted on Brexit over the last 3 years. How much money, energy, goodwill, patience and effort. All for a complete lie. If only the DUP put as much effort into power-sharing with Sinn Fein. They are surely the type who Tusk was referring to with his ‘special place in hell’ tweet.

tuxy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Any changes to the WA will need to be negotiated with the EU negotiating team and then approved by the EU27's national Parliaments.

I know but assurance from the UK and not the EU along with some extra funding may be enough for the DUP supporters, they are unionists after all and should be willing to put their faith in the UK.

Water John

THE WA is not going to be touched.
Govn't simply providing political cover of everyone from DUP to Mogg and Johnson to climb down from their respective perches and also swing in a few more Lb dodderers.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

There are many in the HoC, mainly the ERG but not limited to them, that will actively work to weazel out of any deal that it agreed with the EU.

I'm sure they are. But time and observation has taught me that they really aren't as clever as they seem to think they are. Part of me wonders if they have fallen for their own lies that they relentlessly churn out to the media. I'm certain that some of them have.

So, yes, they'll try to weasel out with some cunning plan or other and completely trip themselves up with either a complete misunderstanding of the law or their blind faith in their own cleverness. Such as Article XXIV GATT or Vienna 62. Or even Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which they still can't seem to understand, despite it being shorter in length than 6 Tweets.

Water John

I could be wrong, Jim Shannon DUP, whoever he is, says unless the backstop is time limited they won't support.

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/KenReid_utv/status/1106548292048089090

Inquitus

WA to be passed by 30th Mar, so could be after WA Vote 3, 4 or 5 potentially.

PP Odds:

Yes 7/4
No 2/5

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/KenReid_utv/status/1106548292048089090

That idea was floated before by TM. That the NI assembly, thus DUP, would have the final say on the backstop.

But the WA does not give any chance for that. Are they really saying that NI will have the final say on the future relationship between UK and EU. Because if the DUP rule out Backstop then the FTA will be gone.

I'm not sure they have really thought the implications of this through.

Inquitus

Leroy42 wrote: »

That idea was floated before by TM. That the NI assembly, thus DUP, would have the final say on the backstop.

But the WA does not give any chance for that. Are they really saying that NI will have the final say on the future relationship between UK and EU. Because if the DUP rule out Backstop then the FTA will be gone.

I'm not sure they have really thought the implications of this through.

The EU will never agree to this, so what's the point?

Leroy42

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU will never agree to this, so what's the point?

i can only imagine that it continues the process of the UK negotiating with itself. They continue to believe that Brexit is only about the UK, and the UK is the ultimate decider of all things related to it.

Even the votes last night, where the HoC voted to extend the Brexit date, was reported in many media as being a truism, that the date had been put back. When in fact it hasn't. Tm has been given a demand by the HoC to seek an extension, the EU have no obligation to agree to it.

Inquitus

Leroy42 wrote: »

i can only imagine that it continues the process of the UK negotiating with itself. They continue to believe that Brexit is only about the UK, and the UK is the ultimate decider of all things related to it.

Even the votes last night, where the HoC voted to extend the Brexit date, was reported in many media as being a truism, that the date had been put back. When in fact it hasn't. Tm has been given a demand by the HoC to seek an extension, the EU have no obligation to agree to it.

Aye its like me voting myself for a payrise, without discussing with my employer. ergo meaningless and pointless!

Shelga

Leroy42 wrote: »

i can only imagine that it continues the process of the UK negotiating with itself. They continue to believe that Brexit is only about the UK, and the UK is the ultimate decider of all things related to it.

Even the votes last night, where the HoC voted to extend the Brexit date, was reported in many media as being a truism, that the date had been put back. When in fact it hasn't. Tm has been given a demand by the HoC to seek an extension, the EU have no obligation to agree to it.

This pissed me off. The extension was being reported as fact, even by normally reputable news outlets. Just underlined how much of a role the media plays in insidiously planting ideas.

Joe_ Public

Assuming the dup climb on board - and that’s hardly guaranteed yet - what then? Presumably that might sway most of the erg mps to switch too, but she’s still short isn’t she? And as much as there’s the prospect of labour waverers, isn’t there also the chance of tories going the other way? Still very difficult to call but don’t see it passing myself.

kuro68k

This is a travesty. MPs get to vote on the same deal 3 times, the public gets one vote before even knowing what the deal is!

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

This pissed me off. The extension was being reported as fact, even by normally reputable news outlets. Just underlined how much of a role the media plays in insidiously planting ideas.

The first time I heard about the EU always giving in at the last minute to some concessions was on the Brexitcast podcast. That would be the BBC podcast on Brexit and I have not really heard it anywhere else. Strange that it would get back to UK politicians and they treated it as gospel and see how much they got at the last minute recently?

In any case, I think May is laying the groundwork for her deal to pass and it may include that she leaves soon after for a Brexiter to take over the trade negotiations. You can imagine how good that will work for whoever takes over, with a deal that they didn't negotiate and a majority that is paper thin and most likely guarantees given that cannot be honored. If you think the past few months has been chaos, wait until May blackmails her deal through with a combination of promises and the threat of no-deal.

An Ciarraioch

Ch-ching! Hammond joins the DUP talks:

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/philip-hammond-in-dup-negotiations-are-they-talking-money/

Leroy42

Which, IMO, is planting the idea that A) the HoC has made the decision and that the EU are being intransigent if they don't agree with the will of the HoC.

listermint

Id assume the DUP and ERG are being threatened with revoke a this point which is why they are willing to discuss ?

Laois_Man

listermint wrote: »

Id assume the DUP and ERG are being threatened with revoke a this point which is why they are willing to discuss ?

I would think the DUPs position as an equal member of the UK (as they see it) is far more important to them than Brexit happening or not happening!

Leroy42

I doubt the DUP care about Revoke really, it would actually be the best outcome for them I would have thought.

What would be of concern is if they are seen to be the ones that led to revoke, and thus face the wrath of the rest of Brexit GB

10000maniacs

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/KenReid_utv/status/1106548292048089090

If the assembly is involved, this becomes SF territory and they won't agree to the DUP having their finger anywhere near the backstop button.
Nor will the EU or the Irish government.
Another bizarre unicorn.
The problem with all these "ideas" is they are proposed in reaction to Brexit problems. Therefore they become divisive from initiation.

upupup

Heres the deal.. "W.A" Please vote for it.......NONONO
Heres a new .... "W.A" Please vote for it .......NONONO
Heres a better.. "WA" Please vote for it ......NONONO
Final Deal........ "W.A" Please vote for it...NONONO

This is definitely the Last deal,Times up "W.A".......YAY YAY YAY...WE WON!They gave in!We have taken back control

Leroy42

Except that at no point has the deal actually changed

Shelga

Do people actually think it will get voted through next week? I can’t see 99% of Labour MPs ever voting for it, never mind the Lib Dems or the SNP.

Doesn’t it require every single Tory MP, plus all of the DUP, to vote for it, and even then, it will only barely pass?

Leroy42

Shelga wrote: »

Do people actually think it will get voted through next week? I can’t see 99% of Labour MPs ever voting for it, never mind the Lib Dems or the SNP.

Doesn’t it require every single Tory MP, plus all of the DUP, to vote for it, and even then, it will only barely pass?

Yes, there are a few (3 I think on both the last votes) Labour MP's that will vote for it, but it is not usual for the government party to need each member to vote to get something through.

What is noticeable in relation to Brexit is how many, and often, TM has lost control of her own party. It was always tough as they had a slim majority (with the DUP) but the majority should, by the nature of being a majority, been enough.