Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini

lawred2 wrote: »

Catching up here but it seems to me that they pretty much voted against everything

Yeah they did but it's been pointed out it's a 2 stage process. The idea is to gauge the plans with the least resistance and the Custom's Union and 2nd Referendum came the closest to actually passing. The rest had over 100 vote's against which pretty much eliminates them along with May's deal.

If the CU get's accepted one of the red lines is dropped and that changes the existing WA's conditions sufficiently to at least renegotiate.

If the 2nd referendum is accepted it put's the issue back to the people give's a clear way out of this mess will allow sufficient time for a delay and ultimately kick the Brexiteer's hard in the nut's that their little vainglorious dream ultimately dies thanks to their arrogant stupidity.

If a GE happens we'll see an extention and likely a new parliment that might be more competent than the last but at least the DUP get's flushed down the toilet like a stubborn turd.

I wonder will May collapse the govt instead of a referendum featuring a two way choice of customs union,/revoke or her deal/no deal Brexit

Robert McGrath

Quin_Dub wrote: »

As an aside , assuming the UK do get a long (1-2yr) extension and therefore participate in the elections , if they ultimately leave at the end of that period.. What happens to the seats they would now hold?

By-elections in those countries to whom the additional seats are to be distributed, maybe? Not ideal as by-elections have their own unique dynamic, but would surely be an option

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Given what the Speaker recently said, what basis is there for bringing back on Monday a choice that was rejected tonight?

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Possibly

From a few posts back.

Joe_ Public

Very good night for the second referendum lobby. That’s the clearest thing to emerge, you’d hope it could now start to gather some serious momentum. Looks more likely than not to happen at some stage and in some form.

L1011

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Mad that there are not sufficient seats in the Commons for every member either. Ah well that's probably tradition too.

I think there's only 168 physical seats in the Dáil, so we'll also run out of seats in 5/10 years depending on census results and the required number of TDs. As we've in-seat electronic voting that will be problematic!

Eod100

Headshot wrote: »

Parliament tv is so ****e

It's constantly losing connection and can't make up it's mind

so fits in perfectly with UK politics

Thought it was just mine. Yeah woeful

Joe_ Public

Eod100 wrote: »

Thought it was just mine. Yeah woeful

Looks like it’s given up the ghost for the night. Too much traffic probably.

Balanadan

Will a General Election make a difference?

LeinsterDub

Eod100 wrote: »

Thought it was just mine. Yeah woeful

Channel 4 live on YouTube is much more reliable.

MadYaker

Bercow is the only competent one

Laois_Man

Bob Blackman asking why Malthouse wasn't selected for vote and wants it resurrected on Monday to test parliaments view on it

Utterly ridiculous!!

WhiteMan32

Option J: Leave the EU with a UK-wide customs union, as proposed by Tory MP Ken Clarke

Ayes: 264

Noes: 272


Option M: Any withdrawal agreement must be put to the public in a ‘confirmatory’ second referendum, as proposed by Labour's Dame Margaret Beckett

Ayes: 268

Noes: 295



While both of the above were defeated, the Ayes were the two highest in the HoC tonight, therefore perhaps MPs should combine the two options by voting to put the choice of Leaving the EU with a UK-wide customs union to a confirmatory second referendum.

devnull

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Looks like it’s given up the ghost for the night. Too much traffic probably.

Sky News fully streams online, far better than BBC

Water John

30 + Lb MPs did not support the Beckett motion. So if fully whipped it might get a majority.

Imreoir2

Balanadan wrote: »

Will a General Election make a difference?

Will they be able to get sufficient votes for a GE? I don't see much reason to assume it will happen.

No-deal seems to be the only likely outcome at this stage, people seem to be increasinly grasping at straws trying to find reasons it won't happen. I don't see a very clear pathway to avoide it given the current dysfunction in the UK political system.

Joe_ Public

Laois_Man wrote: »

Bob Blackman asking why Malthouse wasn't selected for vote and wants it resurrected on Monday to test parliaments view on it

Utterly ridiculous!!

To paraphrase an old saying, when it comes to deselection the malthouse crew should be the first heads on the block for sheer stupidity and needless and willful wastage of time.

Eod100

https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1111028912442826752


''... there's no limit.''

LeinsterDub

Up to 30 of the most hardline pro-Brexit Tories and 10 Democratic Unionist party MPs are still planning to vote against Theresa May’s deal, despite a string of Eurosceptics backing down when she promised to resign.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/27/may-faces-uphill-battle-as-dup-and-ergs-spartans-will-vote-against-deal


Yet more no. No is in plentiful supply, a way forward seems entirely lacking

Enzokk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Given what the Speaker recently said, what basis is there for bringing back on Monday a choice that was rejected tonight?

I am just following tweets and what is being said in the HoC right now, but it seems logical seeing that these were indicative votes only and not legislation or amendments on legislation. I am sure if the parties were under the impression that these votes would not happen again if they were rejected that they would have been whipping their MPs. This was about finding which way MPs are trending and then seeing if consensus can eventually be reached.

Harry Palmr

Surely it's pretty obvious what can and should happen - Ken Clark's content proposal + Margaret Beckets process proposal on Monday

An Ciarraioch

CU would have passed if SNP hadn't abstained:

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/658

Eod100

Feck sake

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1111029019582054401

McGiver

OK, so Bercow and Letwin will spin it like this:
1. CU and 2nd ref have berm shown as having the highest support, far more than the WA
2. WA is dead, no substantial change has occurred so won't be allowed to be tabled again
3. Next week runoff between the options with the most support as previously laid out

HMG along with ERG will try to disrupt this as much as possible but playing dirty tricks but they don't have enough time to start a new session of parliament so they are screwed. Unless GE is called, which could be a last minute dirty tory trick, I can see CU being voted for which means May will go back to the EU in April saying that longer extension is needed in exchange for WA/PD being amended with permanent CU.
If it's doable via PD only WA may be voted for with Kyle-Wilson which means WA+permanent CU plan will be subjected to referendum vs remain.

Both May and ERG are done, completely cornered now.

Spanish Eyes

L1011 wrote: »

I think there's only 168 physical seats in the D, so we'll also run out of seats in 5/10 years depending on census results and the required number of TDs. As we've in-seat electronic voting that will be problematic!

I am sure there is forward planning for this, certain in fact!

But the Commons is a ridiculous set up, not enough room, and constant heckling and roaring. No harm with a bit of banter, but the antics in HoC is really something else. And it overtakes everything to the detriment of debate sometimes. But that's their way I suppose, so who am I who object.

Can't help but comment though.

Enzokk

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

Option J: Leave the EU with a UK-wide customs union, as proposed by Tory MP Ken Clarke

Ayes: 264

Noes: 272


Option M: Any withdrawal agreement must be put to the public in a ‘confirmatory’ second referendum, as proposed by Labour's Dame Margaret Beckett

Ayes: 268

Noes: 295



While both of the above were defeated, the Ayes were the two highest in the HoC tonight, therefore perhaps MPs should combine the two options by voting to put the choice of Leaving the EU with a UK-wide customs union to a confirmatory second referendum.

Here is a breakdown per party on those votes.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1111027851594207232

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1111026704955465729

Now on the Clarke plan, does that mean the SNP didn't vote for a customs union? If they did it would have been agreed and passed, or am I missing something here?

devnull

33 Tories backed Customs Union



Some surprises there - Damian Green for one.

Joe_ Public

Biggest winners tonight:

1. Remainers with a good showing for 2nd referendum.

2. The PM. Deal deader than a dodo, long extension very likely meaning we are no closer to delivering brexit meaning she can stay in power for an indefinite period to come.

Shelga

Were any MPs whipped to vote on anything tonight?

Can an either/or version of votes be put to the house, rather than all of these endless for/against motions? So either you leave with a customs union, OR there is a second referendum. Not sure of process for doing this.

What on earth would the question even be on a second referendum? Is there any point on putting May's deal on it, as it is almost universally despised?

3 options- No Deal, May's Deal, Remain? Would a responsible government ever put No Deal to a public vote?

Will this hell ever end?

Harry Palmr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

CU would have passed if SNP hadn't abstained:

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/658

You can be sure that if the Customs Union proposal makes it to round two the SNP will back it.