Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Balanadan

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Will they be able to get sufficient votes for a GE? I don't see much reason to assume it will happen.

No-deal seems to be the only likely outcome at this stage, people seem to be increasinly grasping at straws trying to find reasons it won't happen. I don't see a very clear pathway to avoide it given the current dysfunction in the UK political system.

Just thinking about it, if you had to vote to elect an MP in the morning, how would you decide? Given all the rebelling, you couldn't necessarily vote along party lines, you'd want them to publish a hierarchy of preferences and see who's list best corresponds with your views.

Shelga

I wonder what percentage of time in the HoC over the last 4/5months, and indeed over the last 2.5 years, has been devoted to Brexit. Would be an interesting stat to have.

It's totally consumed the political institutions of the UK and has gone way beyond farcical levels now. And to think, they potentially face many many more years of this.

Clytus

As much as I detest Alister Campbell, he's the only one making sense of this in commentary terms.

What a failure the indicative votes have been! This should have given Macron reason to be a little more flexible on a final Brexit day.

Water John

What might get the best support is a close/soft Brexit subject to a Ref.

Harry Palmr

It's best to think of this process as being a bit like a French presidential run off combined with Russian Roulette.

Headshot

Im dying to know how May can get her MV back on the table?

crusier

If ever a military anywhere had reason for a military coup it's now in the UK! The Muppets in government have lost all credibility, the DUP are holding Europe and the UK to ransom.

Clytus

Balanadan wrote: »

Just thinking about it, if you had to vote to elect an MP in the morning, how would you decide? Given all the rebelling, you couldn't necessarily vote along party lines, you'd want them to publish a hierarchy of preferences and see who's list best corresponds with your views.

Its beyond normal understanding now...if it was me, Id be voting for an outcome that my MP believed rather than voting for a political philosophy.

Itssoeasy

So am I right in thinking that no deal is still on the table despite what many people are saying it's off the table. The default position without Theresa May deal is passed the UK will leave the EU with no deal on April 12th, 2019 regardless what the commons votes to avoid a no deal.

Joe_ Public

Clytus wrote: »

As much as I detest Alister Campbell, he's the only one making sense of this in commentary terms.

What a failure the indicative votes have been! This should have given Macron reason to be a little more flexible on a final Brexit day.

I’m not sure why they’ve been a failure? As others pointed out it was always a two stage process, it’s only half time and some options are going in a couple of goals up.

Agree on AC btw, never liked him but found him fairly agreeable on this for the most part.

Kiith

So there were 8 votes tonight, with varying options on how to leave (or not leave), and they voted them all down?

Ah man, they couldn't make this any funnier/tragic if they tried.

LeinsterDub

crusier wrote: »

If ever a military anywhere had reason for a military coup it's now in the UK! The Muppets in government have lost all credibility, the DUP are holding Europe and the UK to ransom.

She doesn't have the votes even with the DUP. There is plenty of blame to go around.

woohoo!!!

So what's the way forward? No deal and the WA are dead, finito. All leads to an extension request and a GE, perhaps at same time as European elections.

An election can be called by a two thirds majority or the PM losing a vote of confidence and 2 weeks later, confirmation that an alternative government/PM cannot be formed and therefore GE automatically called.

A long extension request, if granted, will have a shorter and a longer deadline (both over a longer period than the existing deadlines), on the same principle as the existing deadlines. EU whilst staying they prefer remain, will accept a softer Brexit but that depends on who/What party or parties are in power.

Balanadan

I think if the EU agree to a long extension, they will have to clearly define the timeframe and what is required from the UK. The uncertainty is enough of a pain in the backside for SMEs, I can't imagine how frustrating it must be for MEPs who are distracted from meaningful work by this nonsense.

MadYaker

At this stage it would probably be easier if all 27 other member states left the EU?

Joe_ Public

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So am I right in thinking that no deal is still on the table despite what many people are saying it's off the table. The default position without Theresa May deal is passed the UK will leave the EU with no deal on April 12th, 2019 regardless what the commons votes to avoid a no deal.

Technically but 400 MPs voted against no deal tonight. What more powerful statement does anybody need than that? Its as dead as anything in this whole process can be at this stage, including pm deal.

Itssoeasy

woohoo!!! wrote: »

So what's the way forward? No deal and the WA are dead, finito. All leads to an extension request and a GE, perhaps at same time as European elections.

An election can be called by a two thirds majority or the PM losing a vote of confidence and 2 weeks later, confirmation that an alternative government/PM cannot be formed and therefore GE automatically called.

A long extension request, if granted, will have a shorter and a longer deadline (both over a longer period than the existing deadlines), on the same principle as the existing deadlines. EU whilst staying they prefer remain, will accept a softer Brexit but that depends on who/What party or parties are in power.

No deal is most certainly dead in any way. It's the default position without a deal.

Enzokk

Clytus wrote: »

As much as I detest Alister Campbell, he's the only one making sense of this in commentary terms.

What a failure the indicative votes have been! This should have given Macron reason to be a little more flexible on a final Brexit day.

I may have also been hoping for more clarity but even if one of the options had succeeded it would not have become law or something the EU could have acted on as it is not government policy. It is what it says on the tin, indicative votes to show what parliament may be thinking. Instead of having to spend time listening to MPs talking about Malthouse or no-deal it has now been dismissed again quite convincingly. But there are 2 options that may have a chance of gaining support if discussions are had on them and this should be further explored.

This will now happen on Monday, if parliament still doesn't vote for something and May's deal either will not get through or even be voted on then the only options are no-deal or revoke or general election.

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So am I right in thinking that that no deal is still on the table despite what many people are saying it's off the table. The default position without Theresa May deal is passed the UK will leave the EU with no deal on April 12th, 2019 regardless what the commons votes to avoid a no deal.

It will always be the default option as the way article 50 is written I think. The only way to ensure it doesn't happen was to support her deal or revoke. That has not changed.

Itssoeasy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Technically but 400 MPs voted against no deal tonight. What more powerful statement does anybody need than that? Its as dead as anything in this whole process can be at this stage, including pm deal.

Not binding vote though.

Enzokk

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Not binding vote though.

Yes, MPs may vote against no-deal itself time and again but they will need to vote for a deal or to revoke to ensure it happens. I mean I could vote to save money every month but it will not happen, unless I physically start saving money (yeah, I know a crap analogy).

Franz Von Peppercorn

Anybody know why the votes aren’t binding?

Joe_ Public

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Not binding vote though.

That’s true but as much as I would rule anything out it’s no deal. Absolutely nobody beyond a few extremists wants it and they can’t - won’t - make it happen. In the event it’s still alive, I believe they can, with a house majority, make an appeal to the crown to stop it and such appeals, while also not binding, are never in practice denied. So I’ve read anyway.

Dont be at yourself

So;

May vows to resign, if her deal passes. But, the speaker just today said he may not even hear a vote on her deal, and even if he does, it’s unlikely to pass due to no support from DUP and half of ERG.

Meanwhile, parliament don’t have a majority for any one of 8 options, running the entire gamut from no-deal to EFTA+EEA.

Charitably, the EU could offer an extension allowing for a general election, but at this stage I’d be inclined to pull the plug on April 12th and move on. I don’t see the UK any closer to agreeing with itself than before.

Itssoeasy

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Anybody know why the votes aren’t binding?

It's an indicative vote.

Water John

Parliament has to use specific options to force a Govn't to act.

joe40

It was no big surprise that all 8 votes were rejected tonight, this is after all a process.
The fact that the customs union one only lost by 8 votes, and the confirmatory vote also received good support is encouraging.
It is still impossible to know what the govt will do in the event of mv3 failing. Surely a long extension with a general election is the only other option at this stage.

A Dub in Glasgo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Anybody know why the votes aren’t binding?

It may be just like the referendum it self... ie unless positively stated

Stacksofwacks

May should either leave with no deal on April 12th or else withdraw article 50, to prolong this messing for another few months or years is unacceptable

Itssoeasy

joe40 wrote: »

It was no big surprise that all 8 votes were rejected tonight, this is after all a process.
The fact that the customs union one only lost by 8 votes, and the confirmatory vote also received good support is encouraging.
It is still impossible to know what the govt will do in the event of mv3 failing. Surely a long extension with a general election is the only other option at this stage.

Was the customs union one the Kenneth Clark one ? The SNP and Lib dems abstained I think and the DUP were the deciding votes.

Enzokk

joe40 wrote: »

It was no big surprise that all 8 votes were rejected tonight, this is after all a process.
The fact that the customs union one only lost by 8 votes, and the confirmatory vote also received good support is encouraging.
It is still impossible to know what the govt will do in the event of mv3 failing. Surely a long extension with a general election is the only other option at this stage.

I think there was a gap in explaining what tonight was about. I wasn't fully aware of it either until the speaker confirmed that they will have more time on Monday to try and find consensus again and they will do that by eliminating the options that had the least support.