Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

swampgas

maebee wrote: »

Can someone please explain to me the difference between an "honourable member" and a "right honourable member,".

Good summary of the honorifics here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/82149.stm

FrancieBrady

20silkcut wrote: »

He was reaching out to the people who marched in London at the weekend and those who signed the petition.
Better that than the rhetoric of verhopstadt, Elmer Brock and macron etc.

Maybe, but I think it was more subtle than that. I would expect this to become stronger as a message to parliament as we get nearer to deadlines.

AllForIt

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

That’s not really an explanation. Just another way of saying it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47671056

Indicative votes as stated in the above article, are designed to get parliament out the stalemate it is currently in. They are not binding in any way. They are designed to find a way forward out of the stalemate.

Most interestingly tonight was Ken Clarkes 'say in the customs union' indicative vote, which lost. Rightly so I though. The idea that the UK would stay in the Customs Union is unthinkable. Yes it would passify some ppl but it just wouldn't be Brexit.

Today is the second time TM said she would resign. It was only a comment she made to her party and isn't legally binding. It's not like she announced this publicly. It'll be forgotten by tomorrow despite the front pages going for it as their lead story. If there is a long extension, if the current one's fall through, there is no reason why she shouldn't remain as PM - unless there is a leadership challenge by someone who is not just a Brexiteer but somehow who can also come up with an actual workable solution to the problems, and as yet I haven't heard one.

I think the idea that there should be a referendum on the deal (if they ever agree on one) or no Brexit at all would be a complete disaster. The UK have to leave the EU and everything else that goes with it. The UK public voted for a complete disengagement with everything to do with the EU and I think that's what they should get whether they fully understand the implications of it or not.

Laois_Man

Its difficult to predict the outcome of a GE before the campaign as both the Tory and Labour parties would have to take unified positions within their party's on how to Exit and it's hard to predict how they'd support it - The Tory's wouldn't dare go into an election with May's deal as their offering - they'd have to abandon it and take some other line, probably something along the lines of a complete renegotiation, starting all over again, with no red lines and their usual arrogant attitude.

Labour will bleat about staying in the customs union and taking their final withdrawal deal to a referendum once WA is agreed

The Tory party would have to be given time to properly replace May which might cause Labour to think about using that time to get shut of Corbyn too. I bet he doesn't have the support of the wider Labour membership anymore, although I haven't seen any recent Labour membership polling to support that view.

But I think it would be Labour/Lib Dems (not SNP) coalition at the end of it all. Best guess.


Lib Dems will hoover up a very significant "Remain" vote.

Laois_Man

AllForIt wrote: »

The UK have to leave the EU and everything else that goes with it. The UK public voted for a complete disengagement with everything to do with the EU and I think that's what they should get

Except they didn't! The vast majority of Leave campaigners were insisting that nobody was advocating giving up access to the single market....but they've moved the goal posts since!

devnull

AllForIt wrote: »

I think the idea that there should be a referendum on the deal (if they ever agree on one) or no Brexit at all would be a complete disaster. The UK have to leave the EU and everything else that goes with it. The UK public voted for a complete disengagement with everything to do with the EU and I think that's what they should get whether they fully understand the implications of it or not.

No, they didn't and they don't, and I've explained this earlier.

The argument that leaving and agreeing certain other terms and deals with the EU is not Brexit and therefore democracy is dead is utterly flawed, because the ballot paper didn't ask that kind of question. If they want to ask that question, they should lobby for a referendum doing exactly that.

The document written as a result of the Referendum Act 2015, Free Movement, Customs Union, in fact a whole range of options were marked as possible outcomes if the UK voted to no longer be a member of the European Union. Therefore to go for one of these outcomes would be consistent with the referendum text.

Being a member of the European Union is a black and white question. You either revoke Article 50 and you are a member or anything else is not a member. Trying to suggest otherwise is a deliberate misinterpretation of the referendum text and making a presumption and is anything but democratic.

The referendum text asked a simple question and the responses were simple answers. The referendum tells you about these things, it doesn't tell you any more than that and anything else is presumptions being made by people who have agendas and are twisting things for their own means.

Westernyelp

maebee wrote:

Can someone please explain to me the difference between an "honourable member" and a "right honourable member,".

Right honourable is a member of the privy council. Like a minister

bilston

devnull wrote: »

Whips are now defying the things they are whipping others to do.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1111046459124789249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1111046459124789249&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-mps-to-vote-on-brexit-alternatives-as-theresa-may-battles-to-save-her-deal-11676313
Just when you thought it couldn't turn into more of a farce.

Just seen this on Twitter. Less than half of Tory MPs voted to extend A50 beyond Friday...staggering...it almost makes me feel sorry for May. She never stood a chance.

maebee

swampgas wrote: »

Good summary of the honorifics here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/82149.stm

Thanks swampgas. It's feckin hilarious.

devnull

Numbers out showing just 150 Tory MPs voted for extending Article 50 exit date in UK law until April or May.

164 defied the three line whip by voting against (93) or abstaining (71) which is shocking.

It essentially means that the whips office may as well be disbanded, because tonight a majority of the Tory MPs decided that they would not be complying with the whips come what may.

It's absolutely unheralded in British politics for the whips to have virtually zero control over their party. Normally the members would be sacked or forced to resign, but TM doesn't have power to do that.

The Tory party really is in crisis.

devnull

bilston wrote: »

Just seen this on Twitter. Less than half of Tory MPs voted to extend A50 beyond Friday...staggering...it almost makes me feel sorry for May. She never stood a chance.

12 out of the 18 whips voted against what they were whipping for.

As I stated up thread, whips may as well be disbanded, they have very little control of the party and are hardly setting a good example. They've probably gone rogue like the MPs who are being whipped.

A Prime Minister has a really serious issue when even the whips are not really following her instructions. She has no authority. She is more finished by the day and it just brings a GE ever closer.

Eod100

Westernyelp wrote: »

Right honourable is a member of the privy council. Like a minister

The privy council sounds like a neighborhood watch association.

Spook_ie

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-denies-government-hiding-real-no-deal-border-plans-913761.html

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has denied his Government is deliberately hiding its real no deal Brexit border plans, claiming the allegation is a "conspiracy theory".

Mr Varadkar was forced to reject the allegation just days after EU leaders specifically discussed the need for a no deal border plan and as opposition parties warned "nothing is being clarified" on the issue.

Wasn't Cowen and Lenihan news in similar vein before the IMF wondered in?

Professor Moriarty

Eod100 wrote: »

The privy council sounds like a neighborhood watch association.

Privy means having knowledge of secrets. Interestingly, it also means a toilet.

Eod100

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Privy means having knowledge of secrets. Interestingly, it also means a toilet.

Ah yeah, being privy to something. Just think language comes across as fairly archaic/anachronistic

10000maniacs

Spook_ie wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-denies-government-hiding-real-no-deal-border-plans-913761.html
Wasn't Cowen and Lenihan news in similar vein before the IMF wondered in?

Can't really pin this mess on anybody in Dail Eireann. Although I suppose that won't stop them. Its basically a 3 dimensional Venn diagram with very little manoeuvre or common overlap.

Jim2007

AllForIt wrote: »

I think the idea that there should be a referendum on the deal (if they ever agree on one) or no Brexit at all would be a complete disaster. The UK have to leave the EU and everything else that goes with it. The UK public voted for a complete disengagement with everything to do with the EU and I think that's what they should get whether they fully understand the implications of it or not.

You are ignoring the fundamental fact that the U.K. has a sovereign parliament not a sovereign people. After expressing an opinion in the referendum, the voters were given an opportunity to elect a parliament to carry it out and the failed to do so, they elected a hung parliament.

The only vote that has legal consequences in the U.K. is a GE and in the most recent election the public opinion was inconclusive. The argument that the opinion in an advisory referendum trumps a GE does no fly.

Peregrinus

A politics professor from the University of Leiden (in the Netherlands) has mapped the votes of each MP on the indicative vote options, like this:
https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1111042565107826690

As you can see, Parliament divides into

- a smaller group (about 25%) who vote for either or both of the "very hard brexit" options, shown in purple, and

- a larger group (about 75%) who vote either for second referendum/revocation (in pink) or something softer than the negotiated deal (in yellow).

Significantly, those who support softer brexit are very open also to supporting a second referendum, indicating perhaps that they think their favoured approach can command public support, while the very hard brexiters are not, indicating the opposite.

The purpose of the indicative votes is to get a sense of which options the Commons might be able to build a consensus for, and the answer is clear; a softer Brexit, possibly with the endorsement of a second referendum. Significantly, permanent customs union and second referendum both secured higher "Yes" votes than the negotiated deal has managed on either of its outings. To my mind the only thing that would prevent the Commons arriving at a consensus along these lines would be opposition from the leadership of one or both parties.

Lucy8080

Dennis Skinner voted for a no deal brexit.

Corbyn is not a Europhile.

The D.U.P. don't seem to give a fcuk about N.I. business interests. As important as the D.u.p. seem now ,unless they invite in soft nationalists to the benefits of being in the Union (which seems to be perpetually beyond their grasp),they are actually,now, facilitating the break up of the U.K.

Demographics have their card marked. Ignorance of this is the time- clock they have fashioned for themselves

Scotland ,well ...they voted remain , and they now look on as Rees-Mogg and B.J. and the D.u.P. are the voices that speak for the U.K./leave side. (voices that can't even get on board with each-other).

The U.K. is having a "cold" Civil war.

mazwell

I've been a lurker in this (these) thread(s) for a while but I find that if I don't have a few hours to myself I get lost because Brexit is so fast moving I.e. a ****show. Can somebody explain to me why there isn't another vote on the WM until Monday? Apologies if I've got that wrong I skipped the last 10 pages because it was hurting my brain to read!

mazwell

mazwell wrote: »

I've been a lurker in this (these) thread(s) for a while but I find that if I don't have a few hours to myself I get lost because Brexit is so fast moving I.e. a ****show. Can somebody explain to me why there isn't another vote on the WM until Monday? Apologies if I've got that wrong I skipped the last 10 pages because it was hurting my brain to read!

Also what is wrong with the DUP?? I understand that they don't want to leave the union but how can they possibly want the north to be totally ****ed in the event of a hard border

riddles

mazwell wrote: »

Also what is wrong with the DUP?? I understand that they don't want to leave the union but how can they possibly want the north to be totally ****ed in the event of a hard border

The DUP has an ideological view that any deal that distinguishes NI as being different to the rest of the U.K. threatens their very existence. This ideology trumps any practical realities like trade and employment.

And in a real sense a significant amount of Brexit yes voters supported an ideological concept of what Britain should become again, linked to a romantic notion of what it was. As we are witnessing the process of marrying an ideology with practical reality is the real challenge. No more so than at any other time in history. Communism as an example.

So in short the DUP (leadership) are fruit cakes but at least trying to understand where they are coming from is a starting point. I’m sure a significant majority of their supporters who are decent and hard working folks are now appalled at the lack of any kind of pragmatic thinking from their leadership.

Roanmore

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Dennis Skinner voted for a no deal brexit.

Corbyn is not a Europhile.

The D.U.P. don't seem to give a fcuk about N.I. business interests. As important as the D.u.p. seem now ,unless they invite in soft nationalists to the benefits of being in the Union (which seems to be perpetually beyond their grasp),they are actually,now, facilitating the break up of the U.K.

Demographics have their card marked. Ignorance of this is the time- clock they have fashioned for themselves

Scotland ,well ...they voted remain , and they now look on as Rees-Mogg and B.J. and the D.u.P. are the voices that speak for the U.K./leave side. (voices that can't even get on board with each-other).

The U.K. is having a "cold" Civil war.

I thought Arlene Foster's interview was very telling. Twice I think she mentioned the benefits of Brexit (no specifics of course) to NI and on both occasions she gave a nervous laugh as if she didn't believe what she was saying. Similar to the way Therese May's mouth goes crooked when she says something that's not true or she doesn't believe.
They've got themselves in right mess.

mazwell

riddles wrote: »

The DUP has an ideological view that any deal that distinguishes NI as being different to the rest of the U.K. threatens their very existence. This ideology trumps any practical realities like trade and employment.

And in a real sense a significant amount of Brexit yes voters supported an ideological concept of what Britain should become again, linked to a romantic notion of what it was. As we are witnessing the process of marrying an ideology with practical reality is the real challenge. No more so than at any other time in history. Communism as an example.

So in short the DUP (leadership) are fruit cakes but at least trying to understand where they are coming from is a starting point. I’m sure a significant majority of their supporters who are decent and hard working folks are now appalled at the lack of any kind of pragmatic thinking from their leadership.

I watched a programme a few weeks ago on rte called Brexit and the border as I'm sure many here did and there was one particular man in it that drove the ferry on carlinford lough who in one breath said a hard border would do him out of a job and in the next said he voted to leave because the UK would be a super power without the EU. I actually had to rewind the TV to check did I hear him properly! It would be sad if it wasn't so ridiculous!

I'm from right beside the border and its quite frightening that the UK has gone this far into madness.

woohoo!!!

So Monday is going to be interesting. But more important I think for how the EU react to an extension request. Must be something major for them to grant and everything points to a GE. Anyway Monday will tell also.

woohoo!!!

mazwell wrote: »

riddles wrote: »

The DUP has an ideological view that any deal that distinguishes NI as being different to the rest of the U.K. threatens their very existence. This ideology trumps any practical realities like trade and employment.

And in a real sense a significant amount of Brexit yes voters supported an ideological concept of what Britain should become again, linked to a romantic notion of what it was. As we are witnessing the process of marrying an ideology with practical reality is the real challenge. No more so than at any other time in history. Communism as an example.

So in short the DUP (leadership) are fruit cakes but at least trying to understand where they are coming from is a starting point. I’m sure a significant majority of their supporters who are decent and hard working folks are now appalled at the lack of any kind of pragmatic thinking from their leadership.

I watched a programme a few weeks ago on rte called Brexit and the border as I'm sure many here did and there was one particular man in it that drove the ferry on carlinford lough who in one breath said a hard border would do him out of a job and in the next said he voted to leave because the UK would be a super power without the EU. I actually had to rewind the TV to check did I hear him properly! It would be sad if it wasn't so ridiculous!

I'm from right beside the border and its quite frightening that the UK has gone this far into madness.

You cannot make a rationale argument vs an emotion, a feeling. Of course there is also the getting one over on the other side feeling also. There's no easy answers.

Purgative

mazwell wrote: »

I watched a programme a few weeks ago on rte called Brexit and the border as I'm sure many here did and there was one particular man in it that drove the ferry on carlinford lough who in one breath said a hard border would do him out of a job and in the next said he voted to leave because the UK would be a super power without the EU. I actually had to rewind the TV to check did I hear him properly! It would be sad if it wasn't so ridiculous!

I'm from right beside the border and its quite frightening that the UK has gone this far into madness.

Saw a similar one of a fruit and veg dealer in Southern England. How he'd hoped to pass the business on to his kids and would soon be totally screwed. I was feeling really sorry for him and his family, until he said he'd voted leave.


It is madness that I just can't get.

joe35

In that pragramme 'brexit and the border' there was a unionist farmer who voted leave. Said he'd be financially worse off but that some things were not about money. I taught it very odd and yet respected is honesty in saying it.

robinph

Peregrinus wrote: »

A politics professor from the University of Leiden (in the Netherlands) has mapped the votes of each MP on the indicative vote options, like this:
https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1111042565107826690

As you can see, Parliament divides into

- a smaller group (about 25%) who vote for either or both of the "very hard brexit" options, shown in purple, and

- a larger group (about 75%) who vote either for second referendum/revocation (in pink) or something softer than the negotiated deal (in yellow).

Significantly, those who support softer brexit are very open also to supporting a second referendum, indicating perhaps that they think their favoured approach can command public support, while the very hard brexiters are not, indicating the opposite.

The purpose of the indicative votes is to get a sense of which options the Commons might be able to build a consensus for, and the answer is clear; a softer Brexit, possibly with the endorsement of a second referendum. Significantly, permanent customs union and second referendum both secured higher "Yes" votes than the negotiated deal has managed on either of its outings. To my mind the only thing that would prevent the Commons arriving at a consensus along these lines would be opposition from the leadership of one or both parties.

Whoever it was that ticked Aye to both the no deal and 2nd referendum options probably needs some supervision.

Fr Tod Umptious

joe35 wrote: »

In that pragramme 'brexit and the border' there was a unionist farmer who voted leave. Said he'd be financially worse off but that some things were not about money. I taught it very odd and yet respected is honesty in saying it.

Yea I saw that.
I too respected his honest and also that he looked beyond the economics of it.
I don't agree with him but I respect him.

However he was a middle aged if not older man.

I'd imagine that the younger generation of that type of guy would be far more inclined to vote Remain.