Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Eod100

So looks like there won't be a MV3 this week, but the indicative votes may be voted on again on Monday,

Brexit currently delayed to 12th April. Does the 22nd May extension only apply if MV3 was passed this week? Or is there a bit of leeway if passed before 12th April?

And still question marks over MV3 being able to be voted on and whether May has support to pass it.

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

What would they even put on the ballot paper in a second referendum?

That’s one battle that has yet to be fought - and that’s exactly what it will be.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Eod100 wrote: »

So looks like there won't be a MV3 this week, but the indicative votes may be voted on again on Monday,

Brexit currently delayed to 12th April. Does the 22nd May extension only apply if MV3 was passed this week? Or is there a bit of leeway if passed before 12th April?

And still question marks over MV3 being able to be voted on and whether May has support to pass it.

12 April is the extension regardless of whether MV3 is passed, MV3 must be passed before 12 April to seek 22 May extension.

It is, however, insane that they're only having these conversations the week of the original Brexit date.

Shelga

Joe_ Public wrote: »

That’s one battle that has yet to be fought - and that’s exactly what it will be.

There will be howling from the usual suspects if No Deal isn’t included- but how in god’s name could that be given legitimacy by being put on a ballot paper.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Shelga wrote: »

There will be howling from the usual suspects if No Deal isn’t included- but how in god’s name could that be given legitimacy by being put on a ballot paper.

I'm not sure, only the ERG really pushed for no deal, but it looks now that was just to get rid of May. It was a bluff.

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

There will be howling from the usual suspects if No Deal isn’t included- but how in god’s name could that be given legitimacy by being put on a ballot paper.

It’s well and truly impossible to know. One side could well argue that no deal, being consistently voted down, should conclusively be off the table but the other side will counter argue that the people should get a say on it if that’s the route you’re going.

One thing for certain for those clinging onto the second referendum position, they’d better be already preparing for those debates because they are going to be long and bloody like everything else.

LeinsterDub

Eod100 wrote: »

So looks like there won't be a MV3 this week, but the indicative votes may be voted on again on Monday,

Brexit currently delayed to 12th April. Does the 22nd May extension only apply if MV3 was passed this week? Or is there a bit of leeway if passed before 12th April?

And still question marks over MV3 being able to be voted on and whether May has support to pass it.

Brexitcast are saying they can have MV 3, 4, 5 right up to the 11th but I'm not sure how much faith I put in them now.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Brexitcast are saying they can have MV 3, 4, 5 right up to the 11th but I'm not sure how much faith I put in them now.

Are we even clear that Bercow will allow MV3 on foot of May's agreement to resign?

Enzokk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Brexitcast are saying they can have MV 3, 4, 5 right up to the 11th but I'm not sure how much faith I put in them now.

Did they also say that the EU will compromise or give ground at the last minute?

prawnsambo

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Are we even clear that Bercow will allow MV3 on foot of May's agreement to resign?

I wouldn't have thought so. May resigning doesn't change the agreement in any way.

Eod100

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

12 April is the extension regardless of whether MV3 is passed, MV3 must be passed before 12 April to seek 22 May extension.

It is, however, insane that they're only having these conversations the week of the original Brexit date.

Yeah understood first bit to be the case but thought extension to 22 May was conditional on MV3 being passed this week but maybe there's some flexibility

Eod100

Oof.

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1111196735613874176

joe40

Roanmore wrote: »

I thought Arlene Foster's interview was very telling. Twice I think she mentioned the benefits of Brexit (no specifics of course) to NI and on both occasions she gave a nervous laugh as if she didn't believe what she was saying. Similar to the way Therese May's mouth goes crooked when she says something that's not true or she doesn't believe.
They've got themselves in right mess.

I think the DUP could take or leave Brexit. They supported leave in a cynical attempt to dilute the GFA and distance themselves from the south. But didn't take into account the very real economic damage Brexit will do to the North.

Unbelievable negligent and frankly bigoted in my opinion but that's the DUP for you.

The Backstop then was a shock for them, their precious union being undermined in their view. So preventing the backstop is now more important for the DUP than Brexit.
They would rather see "no deal" or "remain" or "soft Brexit" sooner than the Backstop. In short their own narrow idealogical point of view trumps all other considerations, economic, social, GFA etc

lawred2

Eod100 wrote: »

Oof.

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1111196735613874176

he's some fool taking her on - giving her an open goal like that - she'd buy and sell the lot of them

Christy42

So what is getting put forward to the run off?

The point was to narrow down the options so what are we left with?

Enzokk

Eod100 wrote: »

Oof.

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1111196735613874176

He and May seems cut from the same cloth. Does he not understand, as someone who constantly voted against his parties policy, that he will need to work together with other parties otherwise the chaos of Brexit will be the result. But someone at Labour obviously think this is the way to go and Corbyn agrees. He really deserves his approval ratings seeing that he is just as much a fool as May is.

LeinsterDub

Enzokk wrote: »

Did they also say that the EU will compromise or give ground at the last minute?

They said the EU would make it work if the WA was accepted. Even if it was at the last minute

Enzokk

Christy42 wrote: »

So what is getting put forward to the run off?

The point was to narrow down the options so what are we left with?

I don't think this is about voting for a policy as only the government can bring forward policies like that. What can be done is a way forward that has a majority in the House Of Commons can be the starting point for new negotiations with the EU. It could be that if Bercow puts forward 3 options all of them has a majority and it would be indicative on what can work.

LeinsterDub

Eod100 wrote: »

Oof.

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1111196735613874176

Dear Jeremy,
We here in Ireland managed to look BEYOND whataboutery to end a 30 year war. Perhaps you could stop being so pathetic and do something to avoid your country going off a cliff.

Yours
Ireland

robinph

Enzokk wrote: »

It could be that if Bercow puts forward 3 options all of them has a majority and it would be indicative on what can work.

They need to change the way they do the votes for the next round though, if it happens. If they stick with the Aye Nay options then it will just be all rejected again.

Have to do it by 1,2,3 preferences in order to prevent people casting negative votes. Those who don't want any of the options can just abstain, and then argue about their opinion being ignored in the chamber afterwards, but it must be a positive choice only, no negative voting options.

RobMc59

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Dear Jeremy,
We here in Ireland managed to look BEYOND whataboutery to end a 30 year war. Perhaps you could stop being so pathetic and do something to avoid your country going off a cliff.

Yours
Ireland

So no input from the UK on that back in the day?

Eod100

I'm still not sure about this.. An extension may help things but isn't no deal default until at least 12th April? Bar UK seeking and EU granting one after that date?

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1111195886590353408

Enzokk

robinph wrote: »

They need to change the way they do the votes for the next round though, if it happens. If they stick with the Aye Nay options then it will just be all rejected again.

Have to do it by 1,2,3 preferences in order to prevent people casting negative votes. Those who don't want any of the options can just abstain, and then argue about their opinion being ignored in the chamber afterwards, but it must be a positive choice only, no negative voting options.

I was just making a statement without knowing what would happen, but whatever happens it is no guarantee that the government will accept the votes or work with it in the future. They are only indicative and cannot compel the government to change course if they don't want to. Just like the referendum but as we know politicians are very selective when it comes to manifesto pledges and their honour.

Peregrinus

Eod100 wrote: »

Yeah understood first bit to be the case but thought extension to 22 May was conditional on MV3 being passed this week but maybe there's some flexibility

The deal is that if WA is approved by 29 March, EU has said that UK will get extension to 22 May.

If WA is not passed by 29 March, UK has until 12 April to make a plan and then ask for a longer extension to execute the plan. No guarantee that the longer extension will be given; depends on the plan, and on what EU thinks of it.

One possible scenario is that WA gets approved after 29 March, and then UK goes to EU and says "Here's our plan; we'll implement the WA. How about it?" And I would think their prospects of getting an extension to 22 May in that case would be pretty good.

Peregrinus

Christy42 wrote: »

So what is getting put forward to the run off?

The point was to narrow down the options so what are we left with?

Still to be decided. The Speaker has the final say, but no doubt there will be talks with and between senior figures from both sides and various factions before the decision is made.

volchitsa

Totally crazy though throwing away so much credibility faffing around and tearing themselves apart over it for months and voting it down twice, only to then say "Right well ok then, WA it is." If Westminster was a person it would probably be declared legally incapable and taken into care.

LeinsterDub

RobMc59 wrote: »

So no input from the UK on that back in the day?

I'm not sure what your point is?

coolshannagh28

joe35 wrote: »

In that pragramme 'brexit and the border' there was a unionist farmer who voted leave. Said he'd be financially worse off but that some things were not about money. I taught it very odd and yet respected is honesty in saying it.

This sums up the DUP position ,they are more than willing to suffer financially to preserve the union and dilute the GFA , this is a concept many people don't get but it has been a unionist position for 400 + years.

robinph

Peregrinus wrote: »

Still to be decided. The Speaker has the final say, but no doubt there will be talks with and between senior figures from both sides and various factions before the decision is made.

That is something that hasn't happened at any point in the last three years, no reason to think it will happen in the next few hours. :mad:

RobMc59

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'm not sure what your point is?

The UK contributed equally towards the success of the GFA and this shouldn't be overlooked despite the mess the UK government is making of brexit .