Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Do people actually think it will get voted through next week? I can’t see 99% of Labour MPs ever voting for it, never mind the Lib Dems or the SNP.

Doesn’t it require every single Tory MP, plus all of the DUP, to vote for it, and even then, it will only barely pass?

You'll have a few independents and a few Labour rebels who will vote for it. The last two votes saw a large number of ERG members vote against. Not all of them will follow the DUP's lead. Not least because they don't give a damn about NI and this new assurance looks like it will be about Stormont rather than watering down the backstop. Based on previous votes, she needs a swing of 75. I can't see that happening so I think May will lose again

Kermit.de.frog

I wonder could the EU call a halt to ratification of the WA if the British government tries to use domestic law to undermine the backstop?

This is clearly bad faith.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wonder could the EU call a halt to ratification of the WA if the British government tries to use domestic law to undermine the backstop?

Absolutely. And they could refuse an extension.

Leroy42

I also don't think that the only problem with the WA is the backstop, and as such simply getting the DUP to agree to support it may not be enough for Brexiteers to vote for the deal. Many still see it as a terrible option, far worse than both the Brexit they hoped for but also the current situation (EU membership).

The backstop is simply the headline grabbing issue to talk about. Regulations, no votes in the EU, no timeframe for a FTA, having to pay over £39bn. Being potentially locked into a transition period for 4 years.

An Ciarraioch

A fourth Brexit Secretary could be required next week:

http://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1106568896012845056

An Ciarraioch

Looks like every EU state will be covered over the Patrick's Day weekend:

http://twitter.com/emireland/status/1106584638137475072

CelticRambler

The offer of another DUP bribe would be very dangerous territory for both them and TM. The ERG have been split for quite a while now, and their hard core will undoubtedly vote against WA-MV3 in the hope of precipitating a no-deal Brexit on the 29th. If the vote is won by a margin of less than 10, they will be furious with the DUP, and I can't imagine the cost of keeping the turncoat Paddies and the lights on in their parasitic, backward province will be something that will go unpunished.

Now on the one hand, perhaps that's yet another Cunning Plan on the part of Theresa May - preparing the DUP-shafting-ground for her successor, but I don't believe she thinks that far ahead; but on the other, I don't think she's completely stupid, so whatever arrangement she's trying to sell to Arlene, I would be very surprised if it includes any financial "incentives". At this stage, she doesn't need the DUP for any normal government business, so I'd be more inclined to think that TM will threaten the DUP with the kind of direct rule that we discussed the other day: "You want NI to be British? Well you can damn well follow our British laws, then - no more opt outs on abortion, same-sex marriage or wife beating! Or you can talk to the Shinners, get Stormont up and running, and decide between you what's best for NI."

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looks like every EU state will be covered over the Patrick's Day weekend:

http://twitter.com/emireland/status/1106584638137475072

There's a few of them that I would not want representing Ireland at this time. At all or at any time.

Junkyard Tom

The DUP must be storing up an enormous reservoir of ill-will across Whitehall. Goodness knows what Her Maj's Treasury has in store for the north in the future.

Professor Moriarty

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP must be storing up an enormous reservoir of ill-will across Whitehall. Goodness knows what the Her Maj's Treasury has in store for the north in the future.

Even if the DUP give their blessing to the WA, this doesn't mean that all of the ERG will fall into line. They've been hiding behind the DUP's intransigence, handwringing and 'waiting' for their imprimatur. As soon as that fig leaf is gone, they'll find another reason to vote it down.

Water John

Some ERG diehards will never support anything other than a Crash Out Brexit, but the numbers may be small and outweighed by LB defectors.
As it is about the Govn't herding in all their possible votes it is also about LB having some credible alternative to minimise the leakage from their own side.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP must be storing up an enormous reservoir of ill-will across Whitehall. Goodness knows what the Her Maj's Treasury has in store for the north in the future.

It really depends. Most of the time, here and in the UK, minority parties in coalitions get crucified at the next election. The DUP could have been the exception because of their regional remit, but that is now unlikely, more because they went against the grain in Northern Ireland than for being the minority party or for anything else they did.

Given the current balance in UK polities, as well as the continued dissidence shown on the backbenches of both the main parties, it is possible that small parties will continue to play a role in government, especially if governing margins are small or non-existent. The DUP will always be one that that the Torys will turn to, while the likes of the SNP and Plaid Cymru will be natural Labour befellows. The next few elections could be interesting.

Loafing Oaf

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Even if the DUP give their blessing to the WA, this doesn't mean that all of the ERG will fall into line.

I find it hard to understand why any of them would be taking their lead from the DUP at all. What kind of serious, ideology-driven politician would be waiting for a steer on how to vote on such a defining issue from Sammy Wilson or Paisley og?

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's a few of them that I would not want representing Ireland at this time. At all or at any time.

They should just send Coveney on a round trip.

He seems the most capable. Possibly the most capable politician Ireland has had in a very long time in my honest opinion.

Junkyard Tom

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I find it hard to understand why any of them would be taking their lead from the DUP at all.

They're not. As was alluded to, the DUP are useful idiots for ERG'ers who want a crash-out.

judeboy101

What's the DUP's play here?extra billions aside, are the looking to get legistation giving them veto over future backstop allowing WA to go through but actually undermining backstop?

Irishmale0399

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They should just send Coveney on a round trip.

He seems the most capable. Possibly the most capable politician Ireland has had in a very long time in my honest opinion.

Against popular opinion...when it comes to Brexit you should also mention Leo in connection with any mention of Coveney and what they are doing. They are both playing a blinder on the topic and Leo is very highly respected here on mainland Europe.

Leroy42

judeboy101 wrote: »

What's the DUP's play here?extra billions aside, are the looking to get legistation giving them veto over future backstop allowing WA to go through but actually undermining backstop?

Or have they simply been boxed in and are looking for a way out?

They can't be seen as the reason that the UK delayed Brexit for two+ years. Whilst they would suffer no direct electoral consequences what sort of support would they think they would get from the soon to be harder Brexit leader of the Tories (Johnson, Raab or whomever takes over from TM).

Anteayer

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Against popular opinion...when it comes to Brexit you should also mention Leo in connection with any mention of Coveney and what they are doing. They are both playing a blinder on the topic and Leo is very highly respected here on mainland Europe.

The contrast between Irish and British politics at the moment is very stark - sensible, facts-based pragmatic centrism vs left/right and dogma-based chaos in the UK.

Irishmale0399

Anteayer wrote: »

The contrast between Irish and British politics at the moment is very stark - sensible, facts-based pragmatic centrism vs left/right and dogma-based chaos in the UK.

Just a pity that a lot of Irish people cannot come to term with the fact that the government are doing a good job...no a very good job all round.



I know for a fact I would love to have them here running Germany....would take strips off Merkel any day.

serfboard

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looks like every EU state will be covered over the Patrick's Day weekend:

When you posted this I was thinking what a great excuse Paddy's Day is for us to be sending representatives out all over Europe at this time. But then I looked at the list ...

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's a few of them that I would not want representing Ireland at this time. At all or at any time.

... and thought, I'm not sure what benefit Sean Canney in Bulgaria will be!

lawred2

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I find it hard to understand why any of them would be taking their lead from the DUP at all. What kind of serious, ideology-driven politician would be waiting for a steer on how to vote on such a defining issue from Sammy Wilson or Paisley og?

They weren't. That was just a handy smokescreen.

If the DUP fell in with TM, they'd have moved into something else.

charlie14

Laois_Man wrote: »

I would think the DUPs position as an equal member of the UK (as they see it) is far more important to them than Brexit happening or not happening!

The DUP are nothing more that the rump end of the unionist bigots of the past who ruled supreme through gerrymander and using their paramilitary forces to keep their jackboots on the throats of nationalists.
There one and only wish and dream is to go back to those days.



Their "Britishness" on Brexit was nothing more than them seeing a way to do that with the re-imposition of a border as a way to get rid of the GFA.
The backstop is a spanner in the works of that plan.

charlie14

serfboard wrote: »

When you posted this I was thinking what a great excuse Paddy's Day is for us to be sending representatives out all over Europe at this time. But then I looked at the list ...

... and thought, I'm not sure what benefit Sean Canney in Bulgaria will be!

Lots of Irish bought apartments out there in the tiger years, so perhaps he is checking out accommodation for the 10,000 plus homeless.

Laois_Man

This is a little bit of a conspiracy theory, it's not new to must of us but it's really interesting nonetheless and shows how friends of the likes of Nigel Farage made a financial killing from insider trading whereby on referendum night, he released 2 concession statements (much to the bemusement of other leave campaigners).

The first was released within seconds of the polls closing, and the second 92 minutes later had Farage saying that his friends in the city were telling him that their private polling was showing 'Remain' had won.

These statements helped drive markets higher, Sterling surged to new highs and many firms who engaged in short selling made an enormous financial killing in the order of hundreds of millions when Sterling fell off a cliff at around 4 O'Clock the next morning.

Bloomberg consider it a fact that Farage knew, definitely before the second concession statement and probably before the first one also, that this wasn't true and that he had access to the results of private exit polling companies 'YouGov' and 'Survation' which had been commissioned by Hedgefunds and had been illegally streaming their polling results to their hedgefund clients throughout that day in real time - and their results were actually showing 'Leave' as the winners of course. Farage had a long standing relationship with Damien Lyons Lowe, the CEO of Survation. Furthermore, 'YouGov' and 'Survation' had previously told broadcasters who had tried to hire their services that exit polling methods wouldn't work on Brexit

Bloomberg have been investigating and their video here is less that 12 minutes long as is worth a watch

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-03-15/how-hedge-funds-gamed-brexit-to-make-millions-video

ancapailldorcha

Mod: No more links to satire sites please.

BluePlanet

I certainly hope we, and our EU partners have a robust plan for a hard border here.
Despite that nobody wants one.
I have not heard of such a plan.

If there isn't a plan, it strikes me as hugely irresponsible as this is a very possible outcome.

PeadarCo

Anteayer wrote:

The contrast between Irish and British politics at the moment is very stark - sensible, facts-based pragmatic centrism vs left/right and dogma-based chaos in the UK.

I think that's being a little harsh on the UK. When it comes to Brexit Ireland is fairly united. There is a common position and there is no real desire to move from it. Probably the biggest issue in a political sense is how to deal with a situation where the UK leaves without a deal and how to deal with the border issues that would result. From all accounts the UK is completely divided and its political system cannot handle it.

Sam Russell

BluePlanet wrote: »

I certainly hope we, and our EU partners have a robust plan for a hard border here.
Despite that nobody wants one.
I have not heard of such a plan.

If there isn't a plan, it strikes me as hugely irresponsible as this is a very possible outcome.

I think the plan for the Irish border is to see how the Dover situation pans out (or does not). Prediction has it that the queues will reach the M25, and that will be intolerable.

If the UK refuse to pay the €45 billion, then expect the plans to go to planes - not flying. I think the EU playing nicey nicey will be sorely tested.

But it wont come to that. If the WA3 vote fails, and the WA4 fails, and no agreed extension - then revoke, revoke, revoke.

Irishmale0399

BluePlanet wrote: »

I certainly hope we, and our EU partners have a robust plan for a hard border here.
Despite that nobody wants one.
I have not heard of such a plan.

If there isn't a plan, it strikes me as hugely irresponsible as this is a very possible outcome.

It was reported in the German press a few months ago that the EU are putting together a border force (800 German officers were being trained) to support the Irish if needs be.