Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

10000maniacs

brickster69 wrote: »

Great to see Euro-tunnel prepared to use smart border controls at the frontier.

https://twitter.com/mcgheeianmcghee/status/1110218554153074693

How does that system check for illegal or non-compliant products, contraband or stowaways. Etc.

Itssoeasy

10000maniacs wrote: »

How does that system check for illegal or non-compliant products, contraband or stowaways. Etc.

That's my question having looked at that video. That video just says it's a way to keep traffic fluid between France and England. The paperwork may be correct but unless you check any vehicles going from one to the other there could be anything or anyone in vehicles passing between countries.

Enzokk

It seems that the EU will be okay if the WA only passes and not the PD.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1111327121417359361

In the first tweet we have the following,

'On N10’s decision to vote only on the withdrawal agreement, a senior EU official tells me that “only the withdrawal agreement is a must have for the orderly withdrawal. The political declaration is a nice to have”'

Here is a tweet examining the above,

https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1111325247725363205

Basically, the PD will have no legal standing if May gets her deal across the line and she resigns. She will not bind her successor to the future talks and thus it can be changed. The EU has said this for a while, the backstop cannot be changed but the PD can. If anyone votes for her deal on the back of this after opposing it before they are a joke.

Headshot

I love the SNP they great craic in Parliament

The Brexiters will be melting down the coins tomorrow lol

FrancieBrady

Enzokk wrote: »

It seems that the EU will be okay if the WA only passes and not the PD.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1111327121417359361

In the first tweet we have the following,

'On N10’s decision to vote only on the withdrawal agreement, a senior EU official tells me that “only the withdrawal agreement is a must have for the orderly withdrawal. The political declaration is a nice to have”'

Here is a tweet examining the above,

https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1111325247725363205

Basically, the PD will have no legal standing if May gets her deal across the line and she resigns. She will not bind her successor to the future talks and thus it can be changed. The EU has said this for a while, the backstop cannot be changed but the PD can. If anyone votes for her deal on the back of this after opposing it before they are a joke.

The PD was only window dressing to try assure parliament and the DUP.

Laois_Man

Disappointed in Bercow - he's obviously taken a smack down

Its a pointless farce anyway! It has no chance - just let them on with it!

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The PD was only window dressing to try assure parliament and the DUP.

True, which makes the opposition from Labour interesting. It is obviously just their way of attempting to derail the whole process and not allowing a vote as it puts pressure on the PM. The argument Starmer makes about it being connected has been shown to be flimsy but I think he would be aware of it. He is just trying to ensure that the vote actually doesn't take place which means she will have to do something drastic to get things moving again.

Headshot

Laois_Man wrote: »

Disappointed in Bercow - he's obviously taken a smack down

Its a pointless farce anyway! It has no chance - just let them on with it!

It was obviously different and he had to let it go through.

The dog on the street knows there's no difference but from a political point of view there's a difference

Strazdas

Laois_Man wrote: »

Disappointed in Bercow - he's obviously taken a smack down

Its a pointless farce anyway! It has no chance - just let them on with it!

I would imagine Bercow just wanted to show he is fair minded and is not being petty. He probably knows the WA has no chance of being passed.

devnull

There have been recounts on yesterdays votes after potential inaccuracies in counting were reported.

Nick Boles motion D - Common Market 2.0 - AYES 189, not 188
George Eustice motion H - EFTA/ EEA - AYES 64 not 65
Ken Clarke motion J - A UK customs union - AYES 265 not 264, NOES 271 not 272

So the Customs Union only lost by 6 votes rather than 8.

Inquitus

UK to take part in European elections is now favourite at the bookies versus not taking part.

Laois_Man

devnull wrote: »

There have been recounts on yesterdays votes after potential inaccuracies in counting were reported.

Nick Boles motion D - Common Market 2.0 - AYES 189, not 188
George Eustice motion H - EFTA/ EEA - AYES 64 not 65
Ken Clarke motion J - A UK customs union - AYES 265 not 264, NOES 271 not 272

So the Customs Union only lost by 6 votes rather than 8.

Indicative votes on Monday will probably show a majority for Clarke's motion - which will duly be ignored flat out by number 10 - yet another pointless day in the House of Commons!

Akrasia

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1111319086049443841
Seems you can't separate the WA from the PD. UK just negotiating with itself again it seems

It just gets worse and worse from those clowns in government. They spent a week saying MV2 was better than MV1 because of changes to the political declaration, and now theyre saying to support MV3 because it has no political declaration at all.

Its a total fiasco and if this passes tomorrow, there are an awful lot of people out there who have acted utterly shamefully having wasted countless billions in the costs of No deal preparations to simply accept what was negotiated in autunm 2018

Infini

Laois_Man wrote: »

Indicative votes on Monday will probably show a majority for Clarke's motion - which will duly be ignored flat out by number 10 - yet another pointless day in the House of Commons!

Not sure they will be able to at that stage. If the WA is voted down a 3rd time I'd say thats it, it'll be dead entirely that will mean that a CU or 2nd vote will have to be decided on as a way foward otherwise the no deal gun goes off in 2 weeks blowing their economic legs off unless they vote to cancel Brexit.

blanch152

devnull wrote: »

There have been recounts on yesterdays votes after potential inaccuracies in counting were reported.

Nick Boles motion D - Common Market 2.0 - AYES 189, not 188
George Eustice motion H - EFTA/ EEA - AYES 64 not 65
Ken Clarke motion J - A UK customs union - AYES 265 not 264, NOES 271 not 272

So the Customs Union only lost by 6 votes rather than 8.

So Sinn Fein would have made a difference.

judeboy101

Headshot wrote: »

It was obviously different and he had to let it go through.

The dog on the street knows there's no difference but from a political point of view there's a difference

QC on sky news says WA includes PD by default, its in the fine print, so the WA only vote is actually MV3, don't know how bercow missed it.

ancapailldorcha

blanch152 wrote: »

So Sinn Fein would have made a difference.

Mod: Don't bring up the Sinn Féin abstentionist thing again.

Enzokk

blanch152 wrote: »

So Sinn Fein would have made a difference.

No, because these were indicative votes only and the cabinet did not vote I believe. Some people that abstained will vote and others will change their votes. Even if one had more yes vs no votes it still didn't compel May to act on it.

Water John

Yes if they vote down MV3 tomorrow, they can dress it up any way they like but to me it's MV3, the voting on Monday takes on a greater importance. If it's structured to ripen the different soft Brexit positions into one, that will get a majority.
It may be a soft Brexit with a 2nd Ref. What Govn't or PM will then choose to ignore the will of Parliament, esp if nothing else is on offer?

Laois_Man

Infini wrote: »

Not sure they will be able to at that stage. If the WA is voted down a 3rd time I'd say thats it, it'll be dead entirely that will mean that a CU or 2nd vote will have to be decided on as a way foward otherwise the no deal gun goes off in 2 weeks blowing their economic legs off unless they vote to cancel Brexit.

CU and second ref are not the only two options, and not the option that Teresa May will entertain in the slightest in my opinion

If When MV3 fails tomorrow, she will be seeking a General Election next week and a long extension on the basis of that. These indicative votes will not influence her path.

Although I still wouldn't be surprised either if she delays further again and then attempts to run MV4 nearer the April 12th deadline.

Water John

That could be right as the MV3 vote is mainly designed to embarrass Lb MPs, since if they vote against it they are voting against Brexit. Though TM leading the Tories into a GE would be totally lame duck.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: Don't bring up the Sinn Féin abstentionist thing again.

Post deleted. Next one will get a sanction.

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

I would imagine Bercow just wanted to show he is fair minded and is not being petty. He probably knows the WA has no chance of being passed.

I'd imagine that without a written constitution where precedent is everything following the rules is important

IIRC he was reminded of the rule by another MP and it's in Erskine May's Treatise on the Law, Privileges, Proceedings and Usage of Parliament.

Capt'n Midnight

robinph wrote: »

Is there something that prevents them having an option A v option B vote?

There hasn't been any talk of such a vote so far, and if they are only allowed to have option A (y/n) and separately option B (y/n) then we'll never be able to get past this point.

With 8 options there's 28 different A vs B options.

And they are only indicative and the cabinet didn't vote.

BonnieSituation

Eod100 wrote: »

Farage will be delighted

UK Euro elections are list system. Farage will get bugger all.

Laois_Man

Water John wrote: »

That could be right as the MV3 vote is mainly designed to embarrass Lb MPs, since if they vote against it they are voting against Brexit. Though TM leading the Tories into a GE would be totally lame duck.

My predictions for what they are worth:

Teresa May will seek a general election and attempt to remain on as leader for it, unsuccessfully.

Then the extension will have to be long enough to allow the Tory Party elect a new leader properly - not a temporary leader as per last weekends newspapers (wouldn't that take about 3 months?), then the general election itself, then time for the new government to talk to Brussels - so at least up to 31/12/2020

Labour might decide to use the pre-election time to get shut of Corbyn. It will be a Labour + Lib Dems coalition. I cant see the same situation arising again where Tory's + DUP support makes a majority and nobody else other than the DUP will touch the Tory's with a barge pole!

Inquitus

Laois_Man wrote: »

My predictions for what they are worth:

Teresa May will seek a general election and attempt to remain on as leader for it, unsuccessfully.

Then the extension will have to be long enough to allow the Tory Party elect a new leader properly - not a temporary leader as per last weekends newspapers (wouldn't that take about 3 months?), then the general election itself, then time for the new government to talk to Brussels - so at least up to 31/12/2020

Labour might decide to use the pre-election time to get shut of Corbyn. It will be a Labour + Lib Dems coalition. I cant see the same situation arising again where Tory's + DUP support makes a majority and nobody else other than the DUP will touch the Tory's with a barge pole!

If May tables a VoNC in the Gov and it is passed, and then confirmed 14 days later, then the GE will take place within 4 weeks, regardless of any Tory leadership contest.

20silkcut

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Right. I'm not watching sky news so I'm just going on what is being said here. So why exactly has John Bercow accepted this motion for a MV3 tommorrow ? Did he say why ?

Mv in time will become part of the black rod ritual.
With a quip from Dennis skinner after the announcement of the result.

Laois_Man

Inquitus wrote: »

If May tables a VoNC in the Gov and it is passed, and then confirmed 14 days later, then the GE will take place within 4 weeks, regardless of any Tory leadership contest.

There's ways around all that - if she can just get at least most of her party to agree to it as a way forward. All they have to do with the EU by April 12th is agree to participation in the EU elections - that's all the EU want confirmed by April 12th.....are you in our bloody elections or not!!

Next steps regarding Brexit are pending a UK General Election - EU would be amenable to this, they've pretty much said as much. If the UK attempt to go to the EU with a proposal of a temporary Tory leader/PM taking things forward with no election, and which will change after a proper leadership contest, and then potentially change again after an election in 2022, the EU will surely tell them to get lost!

The actual timing of the calling of the election is up to the HoC - Labour will support it whenever the majority of Tory's are willing to allow it to pass. Meanwhile, May stays on as PM until the new government is formed, but the new Tory leader or leader elect, fights the election as the would-be PM

MrMusician18

20silkcut wrote: »

Mv in time will become part of the black rod ritual.
With a quip from Dennis skinner after the announcement of the result.

Because the political declaration isn't being considered, the Motion is materially different