Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Headshot

Question Time on tonight

Set in Sheffield which was a very close voting for the referendum 51% leave 49% remain

The panel are Damian Hinds, Jenny Chapman, Yanis Varoufaskis, Simon Wolfson and Merryn Somerset Webb

Frank Bullitt

Headshot wrote: »

Question Time on tonight

Set in Sheffield which was a very close voting for the referendum 51% leave 49% remain

The panel are Damian Hinds, Jenny Chapman, Yanis Varoufaskis, Simon Wolfson and Merryn Somerset Webb

That should be interesting!

Beechwoodspark

Gintonious wrote: »

That should be interesting!

He is very anti Eu. Albeit left wing. I imagine he will give a soft soap impression of the situation.

briany

What is the game being played by dividing the voting into two over the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration? How does it improve the chance of getting past the house?

CptMackey

Is this vote tomorrow an actual meaningful vote or some other distraction?

At this stage I'm confused to what is actually happening in the hoc

ThePanjandrum

Laois_Man wrote: »

If When MV3 fails tomorrow, she will be seeking a General Election next week and a long extension on the basis of that. These indicative votes will not influence her path.

The Tory Party will not vote for a General Election because May would be leading them in the campaigning. But if reports are true, a number of the ERG are prepared to trigger it which would mean the established Parties facing the Brexit Party led by Farage. Even if he does not win many seats, there would be a bloodbath with many sitting MPs having to defend their duplicity and losing bucketloads of voters and both Labour and Conservative will not have the support of their activists. Many of these MPs would be expected to sign personal guarantees to hold onto their support. It would not be a happy time for them.

briany

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The Tory Party will not vote for a General Election because May would be leading them in the campaigning. But if reports are true, a number of the ERG are prepared to trigger it which would mean the established Parties facing the Brexit Party led by Farage. Even if he does not win many seats, there would be a bloodbath with many sitting MPs having to defend their duplicity and losing bucketloads of voters and both Labour and Conservative will not have the support of their activists. Many of these MPs would be expected to sign personal guarantees to hold onto their support. It would not be a happy time for them.

That all depends. If an MP leans to Remaining, despite representing a Leave constituency, they'd have cause for concern. But if you believe the talk of so many constituencies flipping to Remain, such MPs might just be willing to risk it. Maybe.

Right now, Remain is the more politically motivated side. I would expect them to be out in absolute force in any UK GE. Look at what happened in 2017 when younger voters thought Corbyn was going to put an end to the Brexit madness - they helped propel Labour to a gain of 30 seats. Now, things are even more urgent.

Water John

I'm ignoring the legal gymnastics of Cox. Taking it as MV3 variant. If it passes the WA is in play. Loses and WA is dead.

Irishmale0399

The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???

Loafing Oaf

briany wrote: »

What is the game being played by dividing the voting into two over the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration? How does it improve the chance of getting past the house?

Not sure it does. I think the move was more about getting past the speaker.:P

Inquitus

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???

Well she probably gets a go at MV3 proper up until the 12th April, if its allowed to be brought. However in the meantime they need to agree a plan B to present to the EU to justify a longer extension.

DrumSteve

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???

There is a part of me that wants to see the EU call their bluff and turf them out.

Let them **** or get off the toilet.

woohoo!!!

Can't see how WA gets passed tomorrow. So then we move onto Mondays votes on April 2nd. I think by Wednesday Cornyn will introduce a vote of no confidence to try and trigger a GE.

Irishmale0399

DrumSteve wrote: »

There is a part of me that wants to see the EU call their bluff and turf them out.

Let them **** or get off the toilet.

Can understand your thinking....


Was in Holland today on a business trip and the majority of our lunch guests (multi-national) were saying exactly the same. A few Germans at the table were afraid if the EU didnt stand up to them now then Greece, Italy, Spain or Portugal could be next to want out.

Water John

Well it seems some LB MPs have an issue with the PD rather then the WA. So Govn't may be aiming also to peel them off to vote for the Deal.

Westernyelp

Inquitus wrote:

Well she probably gets a go at MV3 proper up until the 12th April, if its allowed to be brought. However in the meantime they need to agree a plan B to present to the EU to justify a longer extension.

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

PropJoe10

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???

I would say extremely poorly. I'd say it'll be a matter of either a very long extension or the total revocation of Article 50 if this disastrous shambles continues for much longer. Monday's votes will likely be a re-run of yesterday. This parliament is going absolutely nowhere.

Loafing Oaf

Westernyelp wrote: »

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

And my understanding is that choice is Teresa May's. If she wanted to let no deal happen AFAIK she could not be stopped. But all the signs are she doesn't...

FrancieBrady

Westernyelp wrote: »

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

A long extension is not their choice though, they can choose to request one if they come up with - a way forward - to accompany it. They can also choose to revoke.

Irishmale0399

Westernyelp wrote: »

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

The question is what happens if they dont contact the EU tomorrow before close of business......


My understanding was they had to pass the WA by tomorrow to get the May exit or they had to come to Brussels and offer an alternative. Both are very far away....so maybe the EU member states will indeed say its game over.

Headshot

Westernyelp wrote: »

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

Or something might come out of the indicative vote Monday.

I wouldnt be surprised to see Customs and confirmation referendum coming out on top. It would be make a good match up

Strazdas

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I would say extremely poorly. I'd say it'll be a matter of either a very long extension or the total revocation of Article 50 if this disastrous shambles continues for much longer. Monday's votes will likely be a re-run of yesterday. This parliament is going absolutely nowhere.

Katya Adler said on BBC News last night the mood in Brussels is really bad. They are disgusted with how Parliament (and May) are behaving.

Nody

Oh hai...

It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.

The terms of the Irish backstop, keeping Northern Ireland in large parts of single market legislation and the EU’s customs territory in order to protect the Good Friday agreement, would remain as the bloc’s solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

“These are the preconditions – money, Ireland and citizens – and they are the three main issues in the withdrawal agreement”, a diplomat said.

Exactly as we speculated before and the Brexiteers on thread dismissed the first thing that happens at crash out is UK gets told to pay up and agree to the terms EU set before anything else gets negotiated; but EU needs UK more than UK needs EU and UK is in a strong negotiation position etc.

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

Katya Adler said on BBC News last night the mood in Brussels is really bad. They are disgusted with how Parliament (and May) are behaving.

They are probably flabbergasted that, having given May some breathing space but also laid out that her time is up if her deal doesn't pass again, she is not going quietly into that good night. They can also see that if she forces parliament to vote for her deal and blackmails them by offering her resignation in return, it is the EU that will have to deal with the consequences of this and having a Brexiteer in office with a deal they don't like is the worst option other than no-deal. At least with no-deal you know what you will get, not the uncertainty that is sure to follow.

Water John

Well they in the EU went to special lengths to give the UK an extra chance, from their POV and the UK have been pissing around in that time, again.

Hope Monday brings something positive. I think its probably best for all that the UK leaves with a Soft Brexit or only stays with a 2nd Ref.

Headshot

The French protested the UK joining the EU originally and they still cannot wait to get rid of them. The French really do hate the English

Kermit.de.frog

Are they voting on the elements that contain the backstop tomorrow?

What are the chances of it passing (without DUP)?

ancapailldorcha

Headshot wrote: »

The French really do hate the English

What on earth are you basing this on?

lawred2

Headshot wrote: »

The French protested the UK joining the EU originally and they still cannot wait to get rid of them. The French really do hate the English

Ridiculous statement. Tabloidesque in the extreme

Headshot

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What on earth are you basing this on?

History lol

But relating to Politics, it seems mostly the French are the resisting to the UK extensions, they were mostly out spoken voice from the last meeting and they just want them out.

I can see where they are coming from but it's cutting off your nose to spite your face.