Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Jon Worth on Twitter made a really good point a couple of days ago. Many commentators say that should there be MEP elections in the UK that anti EU/UKIP would clean up. He made the point that actually, the true irony of Brexit is that it has lead to a europhile rising ie marches, petition and millions of people who want to remain, now old enough to vote etc.

One likely reason is that the UK has had a proper debate on the EU for the last year or so, for the first time ever.

For the last 30 years, there was no debate whatsoever......just the right wing press bashing the EU on a daily basis. Brexit has actually been quite terrible for the British Eurosceptic movement. It has exposed most of them as spivs and charlatans.

L1011

josip wrote: »

If they rejoin, they have to adopt the Euro.
So once they're gone, they're gone.

And Schengen

Club '73 have the best optouts and yet they're fecking off.

looksee

Headshot wrote: »

Unfortunately it's always going to be like this. I support your thoughts completely on this but unfortunately it's just what we see in Politics these days and I cannot ever see it change.

You will constantly see the likes of the British blaming the Germans for their woes in Europe and bringing up the war etc

That just simply is not true.

Rain Ascending

demfad wrote: »

Analysing the Indicative votes at this stage it be more useful to look at the votes AGAINST than FOR in the indicative votes keeping an eye on abstentions:



Some Indications: (assuming abstain = Potential yes)

1-Five options (all soft/ref/revoke) could have potential majorities when Abstains added.
2-Hard Brexit dead
3-DUP abstaining on SOFT options.
4- If UK parliament ever stumbles into Deal V Revoke: It would be easy majority for Revoke
5-A simple Irish style PR vote (1-8 Pref with eliminations and subsequent redistribution) could whittle it down to any number and would provide far deeper indication analysis.

Thanks for flagging up this important graphic.

I noticed that last night, political commentators repeatedly expressed their frustration that none of the propositions achieved a majority. This is indicative of a political culture that is unfamiliar with coalition building. In reality, there is a lot to play for, but some options are more likely than others:

• The magic number for a House of Commons majority is 321 (taking into account one empty seat, the Speaker, and Sinn Féin). If the cabinet, with 22 members I believe, continue to abstain, then that threshold for a majority drops to 310, but the number of available abstentions that can be flipped is reduced by 22.
• As bobmcbob noted, one possible source is the pro-Remain combination of SNP + Lib Dem + Plaid Cymru, that abstained in a few critical cases, amounting to 50 votes.
• It will be hard to flip no's without significant changes to the overall political context -- and that's unlikely to happen between now and Monday.
• Intriguingly, as you noted, demfad, the DUP abstained on both the Norway/EEA options -- signalling that they are interested in that "alternative solution" to the backstop!

So case-by-case:
Confirmatory referendum: Hardened opinions mean that the number of abstentions here is low. Getting an additional 40 or so votes from the 52 votes in play (i.e. excluding the 22 cabinet members) would be a tough ask. Only expect a major shift if UK politics get even more deadlocked...

Customs Union: Here the numbers look good. The 50 pro-Remain abstaining parties should be enough to swing it to a solid "yes".

Labour's Alternative Plan: Too narrow a path -- it's even tighter than a 2nd referendum. It's fundamental problem is one of branding/labeling. Remove "Labour" from the title and Labour shadow cabinet members as the sponsors/proposers and it would be in a much more benign environment.

Common Market 2.0: Has long way to go, but also has a very large pool of Labour voters that might be convinced. (Freedom of Movement and immigration is probably the main issue here.) Combine them with the SNP + Lib Dems + PC and it might be possible.

Revocation: This is another one that probably can't change in the short term, but will find a more favorable environment as we near April 12.

The No deal, standstill transition and the EFTA/EEA Conservative proposals are too far in the red to be recoverable.


Of course, Monday will see evolution of the above proposals, but if we are to see a majority to emerge it will be some permutation of the Customs Union, Labour's Alternative Plan and Common Market 2.0. For a majority to be constructed, there needs to be some fancy political footwork among key players. Negotiations won't be easy because unlike government coalition formation, nobody has any goodies to offer outside of the terms of the motion itself.

Quote from the SNP

The SNP has “not abandoned the potential for compromise”.

Anybody like to comment how far they'd be willing to go?

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

Newsnight commented that two thirds of NI voted against Brexit and decided they would visit it to find out the views on the ground. They visited Ballmena and East Belfast only, FFS!!

Ah yeah sure Mark Francois tried to say that the north voted to leave because 2/3rds of the unionist population voting to leave. Which of course isn’t the same thing as 2/3rds of the whole province.

Eod100

Not surprising given the outlet but with the planned march on Westminster tomorrow this seems completely over the top.

http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/D2xzVGuX4AAgnjq.jpg

Rain Ascending

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Of course, Monday will see evolution of the above proposals, but if we are to see a majority to emerge it will be some permutation of the Customs Union, Labour's Alternative Plan and Common Market 2.0. For a majority to be constructed, there needs to be some fancy political footwork among key players.

And so it begins:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/mps-backing-soft-brexit-hope-to-unite-around-a-compromise-option

Professor Moriarty

Jacob got a roasting on Newsnight tonight. Exposed for the hypocritical fraud that he is. Mattis tore into him so much I thought he was going to headbutt her. Well done Emily.

Strazdas

Eod100 wrote: »

Not surprising given the outlet but with the planned march on Westminster tomorrow this seems completely over the top.

http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/D2xzVGuX4AAgnjq.jpg

As if the Daily Express and the ERG are the most democratic people in Britain :rolleyes:

The Express has been openly campaigning for Le Pen in France and the AfD in Germany (!)

marno21

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Jacob got a roasting on Newsnight tonight. Exposed for the hypocritical fraud that he is. Mattis tore into him so much I thought he was going to headbutt her. Well done Emily.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1111401612440801281

Pity this line of questioning has not been taken since this charade began. Absolute charlatan of the highest order.

Peregrinus

Headshot wrote: »

Can they actually have secret ballots out of interest?

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Parliament can do what it wants.

Technically, yes, but politically and constitutionally secret votes of MPs are unthinkable. MPs are representatives and are supposed to be democratically accountable. Hard to hold someone to account when you're not allowed to know what actions he is taking. Effectively this would be a power grab by MPs from the people.

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Alberto Nardelli reports that the divorce deal, citizens' rights, and the backstop would remain prerequisites to trade talks in a no deal scenario

Of course they remain prerequisites - and the UK will already be knee deep in the consequences of No Deal, they will be looking at day-by-day escalating crises on many fronts, and they will really, really need a deal fast.

The EU has already announced unilateral emergency measures to keep at least some flights in the air for example, but these will be revokable at any time if PM Boris starts throwing he weight around at talks.

If they think the EU is bullying them now, just wait until after No Deal.

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

One likely reason is that the UK has had a proper debate on the EU for the last year or so, for the first time ever.

For the last 30 years, there was no debate whatsoever......just the right wing press bashing the EU on a daily basis. Brexit has actually been quite terrible for the British Eurosceptic movement. It has exposed most of them as spivs and charlatans.

Yeah but those spivs and charlatans are just about to get their way

Leroy42

It is likely that the vote will lose today, but by a very reduced margin.

That will put massive pressure on the remaining hold out ERG members to get behind the party, put massive pressure on DUP not to be the ones to destroy Brexit etc

I would then expect another vote close to 12 Apr to pass and the EU to give extension to allow the legislation to go through

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

That will put massive pressure on the remaining hold out ERG members to get behind the party, put massive pressure on DUP not to be the ones to destroy Brexit etc

The DUP do not like the backstop so they will not back the deal, full stop.


And if they don't, it is not the end of Brexit: it is now quite clear that parliament can come up with a softer Brexit and the EU will allow time for that.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The DUP do not like the backstop so they will not back the deal, full stop.


And if they don't, it is not the end of Brexit: it is now quite clear that parliament can come up with a softer Brexit and the EU will allow time for that.

. . . if HMG doesn't get in the way.

joe40

Mon vote is important, however regardless of what options are chosen it is still up to May and her government to implement policy.
I can't see her going back on her WA or red lines to pursue softer Brexit.
I can't see a her government offering second referendum.
But I also can't see her forcing through "no deal" by simple inaction.
Therefore surely the only outcome in the short term is a GE.
Maybe there are other options that I'm missing.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is likely that the vote will lose today, but by a very reduced margin.

That will put massive pressure on the remaining hold out ERG members to get behind the party, put massive pressure on DUP not to be the ones to destroy Brexit etc

I would then expect another vote close to 12 Apr to pass and the EU to give extension to allow the legislation to go through

The question is if they could bring the same deal back for a 4th time. They have been warned by the Speaker and he fired a warning shot before this vote. They cannot get a changed vote and they have used their last ammunition to get this latest vote so I cannot see them bringing it back again with "enough changes" for a 4th time. What can they change?

Also, Labour will call for another vote of confidence in the government once the deal is defeated again and I think the DUP may just abstain this time. All you would need then is 5 MPs to vote against her from the last time and it succeeds. Remember that a successful motion does not automatically mean a election and someone else can try to win the confidence of the house within 14 days. So a Michael Gove could stand up to lead the house and avoid a general election, and I think for the ERG this will be very tempting.

Akrasia

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The DUP do not like the backstop so they will not back the deal, full stop.


And if they don't, it is not the end of Brexit: it is now quite clear that parliament can come up with a softer Brexit and the EU will allow time for that.

Thats been the case for years now, the parliament could have agreed on a soft brexit if there was compromise and cross party cooperation . Theresa May did the opposite and refused to honestly engage with anyone, including her own party, and attempted to ram home her own version of brexit.

Its been like this since A50 was triggered, is there any reason to think this will change in the final 2 weeks?.

She whipped against yesterdays indicative votes taking place and basically announced that she would ignore the results if anything got a majority. Her plan is still completely unchanged. Wait for the last minute and then hope enough MPs cave and support her deal

joe40

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is likely that the vote will lose today, but by a very reduced margin.

That will put massive pressure on the remaining hold out ERG members to get behind the party, put massive pressure on DUP not to be the ones to destroy Brexit etc

I would then expect another vote close to 12 Apr to pass and the EU to give extension to allow the legislation to go through

I think at this stage there is absolutely no way DUP will support the WA.
They have spent a year saying it will damage the union, that is much more important to them than any Brexit, or any reputation in Britain.
I can see the DUP supporting a softer Brexit sooner than the WA. Maybe secretly.

Akrasia

Enzokk wrote: »

The question is if they could bring the same deal back for a 4th time. They have been warned by the Speaker and he fired a warning shot before this vote. They cannot get a changed vote and they have used their last ammunition to get this latest vote so I cannot see them bringing it back again with "enough changes" for a 4th time. What can they change?

Also, Labour will call for another vote of confidence in the government once the deal is defeated again and I think the DUP may just abstain this time. All you would need then is 5 MPs to vote against her from the last time and it succeeds. Remember that a successful motion does not automatically mean a election and someone else can try to win the confidence of the house within 14 days. So a Michael Gove could stand up to lead the house and avoid a general election, and I think for the ERG this will be very tempting.

Would the EU be happy to grant an extension with Michael Gove as PM? I think Donald Tusk has already reserved a special place in hell for the leaders of the brexit campaign who had absolutely no plan for what happened afterwards. A general election is one thing they might extend for, but a passing of the reigns to another arch brexiteer? I think thats gonna see a very short extension or one that requires a full general election as a precondition

volchitsa

joe40 wrote: »

I think at this stage there is absolutely no way DUP will support the WA.
They have spent a year saying it will damage the union, that is much more important to them than any Brexit, or any reputation in Britain.
I can see the DUP supporting a softer Brexit sooner than the WA. Maybe secretly.

Rees Mogg said it would create a slave state, no less, and he's prepared to change his mind. And has a lot less to lose from a hard Brexit than most of Northern Ireland, who are after all, the DUP's electors.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

. . . if HMG doesn't get in the way.

HM doesn't have a Government at the moment. May's own whips defied the whip, her Cabinet have defied her, one minister recently gave a speech proposing a motion and then immediately voted against it.

It's not a Government, it's a rabble.

May is the caretaker PM - Parliament will leave her in place until they sort this mess out, but they will vote down her plan 10 times if they have to, and prevent No Deal if she tries it.

Leroy42

volchitsa wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

I think at this stage there is absolutely no way DUP will support the WA.
They have spent a year saying it will damage the union, that is much more important to them than any Brexit, or any reputation in Britain.
I can see the DUP supporting a softer Brexit sooner than the WA. Maybe secretly.

Rees Mogg said it would create a slave state, no less, and he's prepared to change his mind. And has a lot less to lose from a hard Brexit than most of Northern Ireland, who are after all, the DUP's electors.

Watch that Newsnight clip. Right at the beginning the man couldn't even give a straight answer on whether he was a man of principle or not.
He knew what was coming and so had to prevaricate about even that to try to avoid making a position he couldn't defend.
When a person can't even speak about things like that honestly and straight forward you know they are a chance.
I know the Groucho Marx quote that I thought that was meant to be a joke.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

HM doesn't have a Government at the moment. May's own whips defied the whip, her Cabinet have defied her, one minister recently gave a speech proposing a motion and then immediately voted against it.

It's not a Government, it's a rabble.

May is the caretaker PM - Parliament will leave her in place until they sort this mess out, but they will vote down her plan 10 times if they have to, and prevent No Deal if she tries it.

It may be unable to govern, but as long as it's still HMG it can and will stop anyone else governing.

If the UK wants a long extension, HMG has to ask for it. If the UK wants to revoke, HMG has to notify EuCo of the revocation. If EuCo wants to talk to someone about the terms, conditions, circumstance etc of a potential extension, HMG is who they will talk to.

In short, even if a consensus in Parliament develops in favour of a soft Brexit, through either malice or imcompetence or a blend of the two HMG can effectively block it until the clock runs down.

Zubeneschamali

If May defies a majority in Parliament, they will have to remove the Government. But they would rather not just now, so they will let May keep the PMs seat warm for while unless she does defy them.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If May defies a majority in Parliament, they will have to remove the Government. But they would rather not just now, so they will let May keep the PMs seat warm for while unless she does defy them.

Even if they commenced the removal today, May could cling on for long enough to cause insurmountable problems. If she loses a vote of confidence in the House, she's entitled to remain in office for another two weeks. She can't be faced with another vote of confidence in the party. Party officials could tell her her position was hopeless and Ministers could resign rather than serve under her, but even then she could ignore the party officials and appoint other Ministers rather than stand aside.

As matters stand UK crashes out without a deal by operation of law in 14 days time. May can impede the development of consensus in Parliament around an alternative course of action and, even if consensus develops, she can refuse to give effect to it. And, such are her limpet-like qualities, by the time they succeed in prising her out of Downing Street it may be too late.

(In this context it's worth noting that the UK can't pull a rabbit out of hat at 11:59 pm on 12 April and secure a long extension. 12 April is when the EU will decide whether to grant a long extension (if HMG has asked for one, which as yet it hasn't). That decision will depend on consideration of the UK's plans for what it will do in durign the extension, review of the UK's willingness/preparations for EU elections, etc, etc, which means there has to be dialogue about it before 12 April - UK tallking about what it might do, EU talking about what it might require, both sides responding to the other, etc, etc. EU has provisionally schedule a meeting for 10 April to review what progress has been made between UK and EU to that point, plan Council position for 12 April. If no progress has been made to that point, if UK hasn't asked for a long extension and/or there has been no dialogue about what the extension is for, etc, then it's probably all over.)

In short, the UK cannot avoid a crash-out without May either co-operating with efforts to avoid it, or standing aside so as not to impede those efforts. And she needs to do one or other sooner rathe than later. I'd be hopeful that she'd do one or the other, but it does depend on her. She cannot be sidelined.

joe40

Peregrinus wrote: »

Even if they commenced the removal today, May could cling on for long enough to cause insurmountable problems. If she loses a vote of confidence in the House, she's entitled to remain in office for another two weeks. She can't be faced with another vote of confidence in the party. Party officials could tell her her position was hopeless and Ministers could resign rather than serve under her, but even then she could ignore the party officials and appoint other Ministers rather than stand aside.

As matters stand UK crashes out without a deal by operation of law in 14 days time. May can impede the development of consensus in Parliament around an alternative course of action and, even if consensus develops, she can refuse to give effect to it. And, such are her limpet-like qualities, by the time they succeed in prising her out of Downing Street it may be too late.

(In this context it's worth noting that the UK can't pull a rabbit out of hat at 11:59 pm on 12 April and secure a long extension. 12 April is when the EU will decide whether to grant a long extension (if HMG has asked for one, which as yet it hasn't). That decision will depend on consideration of the UK's plans for what it will do in durign the extension, review of the UK's willingness/preparations for EU elections, etc, etc, which means there has to be dialogue about it before 12 April - UK tallking about what it might do, EU talking about what it might require, both sides responding to the other, etc, etc. EU has provisionally schedule a meeting for 10 April to review what progress has been made between UK and EU to that point, plan Council position for 12 April. If no progress has been made to that point, if UK hasn't asked for a long extension and/or there has been no dialogue about what the extension is for, etc, then it's probably all over.)

In short, the UK cannot avoid a crash-out without May either co-operating with efforts to avoid it, or standing aside so as not to impede those efforts. And she needs to do one or other sooner rathe than later. I'd be hopeful that she'd do one or the other, but it does depend on her. She cannot be sidelined.

What you have just described is a dictatotorship not a democracy. I'm no expert on parliamentary policy but everything you say sounds possible, but hopefully unlikely.

Will May want to go down in History as the PM that forced through a "no deal" Brexit.? I really don't know at this stage.

Leroy42

The EU want to avoid a no deal, if there is any glimmer of hope left that the UK can be helped to get to that position then the EU will find a way. The UK left the request for the original extension to almost the last minute (the day before I think) so I think it is perfectly possible that 11.59 (hell, well into the next day) the UK could decide to opt for a long extension and the EU would, if the proposal is plausible, find a way to facilitate it.

This is the 'cave at the 11th hour' that the Brexiteers have been talking about. The problem is, they misunderstood it. The EU, the same as lots of other international and even national bodies, are great are pushing back supposedly iron deadlines, but that is very different from changing the actual position. The EU will happily give additional time for the UK for finally come around to its way of thinking.

Russman

I'm beginning to think a no-deal crash out through inaction is getting very likely. Even if May is removed, there's no way in hell the current HoC appoints Gove as PM, I just can't see him getting the numbers in any scenario. Same for BoJo. JRM is probably dead in the water after his multiple changes of mind, and last night's QT. I dunno, its just a complete stalemate. If Labour were even in the same time zone as competent they'd be making hay, but with Corbyn at the wheel that's not going to happen.
Really hard to see how it plays out. I think we'll eventually get to MV4 (or 5)and see how many MPs have to fortitude to vote it down at the last minute and guarantee a crash out......