Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

listermint

Leaked document. EU to throw the UK out automatically if they don't participate in EU elections in may


Alex Barker (@alexebarker) Tweeted:
So here’s a leaked EU “room document” on the legal questions relating to a Brexit delay.

It was circulated to EU ambos earlier this afternoon.

Our full story here: https://t.co/5sZ6568zWq https://t.co/qEIAiKwxDd https://twitter.com/alexebarker/status/1106632167235481600?s=17

CelticRambler

PeadarCo wrote: »

From all accounts the UK is completely divided and its political system cannot handle it.

This is the ultimate Brexit paradox: everything that Leavers say is wrong with the EU, and a justification for taking the UK out of the bloc, is wrong with the UK - highly/overpaid "unelected bureaucrats", barmy and excessive regulations, regional voices not being heard, an unaccountable elite manipulating government from the shadows, uncontrolled immigration, undemocratic institutions ...

And yet none of these problems is being addressed. Outright fraudulent and probable criminal behaviour on the part of major Leave campaigners is ignored; the government is patently not accountable to parliament, and - it seems - members of the government are not accountable to the Prime Minster; and of course the wishes of three of the constituent countries are completely ignored by the one other.

Whatever happens in the next two weeks/three months, I think the average English Joe Bloggs is going to find that Brexit fundamentally changes the United Kingdom of England and Miscellaneous Others - because the Miscellaneous Others are far more engaged in the political process and will no longer tolerate their countries' fate being decided by the squabbles of two divided parties in England.

briany

CelticRambler wrote: »

This is the ultimate Brexit paradox: everything that Leavers say is wrong with the EU, and a justification for taking the UK out of the bloc, is wrong with the UK - highly/overpaid "unelected bureaucrats", barmy and excessive regulations, regional voices not being heard, an unaccountable elite manipulating government from the shadows, uncontrolled immigration, undemocratic institutions ...

I hope Brexiteers can take comfort in a no deal Brexit that while they'll still get bad laws handed down, at least they're guaranteed to be British laws, by god.

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1106632142744899584

So in theory, like the Turkish talks, negotiations could be perpetually rolled over!

farmerval

When Simon Coveney was minister for Agriculture he led the last CAP funding reforms, a big part of it was while we had the revolving Presidency.

I believe he never got sufficient creditfor an exceptional balancing act in those negotiations, there was a massive problem getting a compromise between established countries holding onto their direct payments, succession countries demanding some of the pie, pressure groups looking to move some of the funding into rural development rather than straight agriculture etc.

I am sure he built up a massive network throughout EU countries and institutions at that time.

Fann Linn

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1106632142744899584

So in theory, like the Turkish talks, negotiations could be perpetually rolled over!

So they just continue to kick the can down the road and pay into the EU for the pleasure of it?

Achernar

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBH, who really cares. She has no authority, she votes against her own amendments and deals at this point.

None of those ministers are making decision based on what TM thinks or wants, the majority of the Tory party already consider her in the past tense in terms of her leadership.

If they did reply to her rant, I doubt they bothered, would it be any more than "So, what are you going do about it? Fire me, don't make me laugh"

And this will actually be one of the longer lasting legacys of all this Brexit mess. We have a PM openly defied by not only backbenchers of their party, but cabinet ministers. We have a PM, and other ministers, that vote against the very amendment that they argued against the minute before.

You have MEP's, actively touting that they are going to work against the government of their own country. You have large amounts of people that have simply given up on the whole idea of politics. The judiciary has been called into question, the civil service is openly discussed as working against the wishes of the state.

Spot on.

The UK is collapsing.

Looking around the world today we are seeing a crisis in leadership and governance, and in authority - in a range of institutional forms. The President of the US is widely known as - and openly celebrated as - a mafioso narcissistic psychopath. The third most powerful figure in the Catholic Church is imprisoned as a convicted child molester. Children around the world are marching in the streets to try to get those in power to wake the **** up to the fact that the climate has spun out of control and we've just about run out of time. Children marching FFS - how shameful is that??

It is the old, traditional, 'historic', patriarchal, imperialist, nationalist institutions that are collapsing, they are seen for the vacuous, empty and rotten structures that they are - they have no solutions for our common planetary problems, how can they?

The EU has its problems for sure, but it is a step in the right direction.

The UK is finished. It will disintegrate and implode and we can only hope the damage can be contained as much as possible.

I was 15 when the Berlin Wall came down, I remember listening to British politicians talking about the future for Germany, confidently predicting that reunification would not happen for many years because 'these things take time' etc. Reunification occurred within 7 months of the wall coming down.

When rotten structures collapse, it can be surprising how quickly events unfold.

CelticRambler

A "Britannic Spring" - sounds so much prettier than "Brexit"

(Slight tangent - the gilets jaunes movement here in France has all but collapsed now. Same problem as Brexit: they know what they don't want, but can't agree on what they do want.)

Edit: then again, not so much of a tangent in the context of my earlier post - the Scots will know what they want, and be able to agitate for it; ditto the (eventual) reunification of Ireland; maybe, just maybe, we'll see the Welsh seek a veto on future England-and-Wales legislation ...

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

A "Britannic Spring" - sounds so much prettier than "Brexit"

(Slight tangent - the gilets jaunes movement here in France has all but collapsed now. Same problem as Brexit: they know what they don't want, but can't agree on what they do want.)

Edit: then again, not so much of a tangent in the context of my earlier post - the Scots will know what they want, and be able to agitate for it; ditto the (eventual) reunification of Ireland; maybe, just maybe, we'll see the Welsh seek a veto on future England-and-Wales legislation ...

Before they were hijacked by the "usual suspects" the gilets jaunes movement was successful in rolling back many of the original measures that brougt them out onto the streets in the first place.


As for Brexit, the main movement was against the establishment as the man in the street was being ignored.

We have to really think about who were pulling the strings of UKIP & other Brexiteers in the runup to the referrendum, where were they going to profit from a successful Brexit, or did they expect it to fail and bet on the other side?

Kermit.de.frog

I see on Twitter a group of Brexiters are planning to block roads from Holyhead in the case Brexit is delayed in protest.

https://twitter.com/J34JEAN/status/1106688394376237056

Anteayer

Seems that protest has been called off. I was just googling around on it, or at the very least it's not very well organised.

josip

Anteayer wrote: »

Seems that protest has been called off. I was just googling around on it, or at the very least it's not very well organised.

Like all things Brexit related

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I see on Twitter a group of Brexiters are planning to block roads from Holyhead in the case Brexit is delayed in protest.

https://twitter.com/J34JEAN/status/1106688394376237056

Let me get this straight, they are unhappy at Brexit not happening, so they plan a protest that would replicate one of the many problems Brexit would cause, but the protest is so badly organised that, like Brexit, it too does not happen?

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

I think the average English Joe Bloggs is going to find that Brexit fundamentally changes the United Kingdom of England and Miscellaneous Others - because the Miscellaneous Others are far more engaged in the political process and will no longer tolerate their countries' fate being decided by the squabbles of two divided parties in England.

Put simply, a hard Brexit will be the end of the UK. Scotland will leave in short order to rejoin the EU, and NI in the longer term, leaving just the Kingdom of Engerland.

But English Joe Bloggs will be delighted to have his own country with none of them Scots and Irish in it.

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1106632142744899584

So in theory, like the Turkish talks, negotiations could be perpetually rolled over!

Yep, just like Norway and Switzerland are officially still joining the EU (for 25+ years now) and Sweden is likewise still joining the Euro since 1994.

jochenstacker

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1106632142744899584

So in theory, like the Turkish talks, negotiations could be perpetually rolled over!

My absolute favourite reply:

https://twitter.com/splortal/status/1106642219379974144?s=17

black forest

Have a look at these numbers. Not quite sure if Liam Fox is calling this a success.


https://twitter.com/commonsinttrade/status/1106543184505696258?s=21


There is only one word which comes to mind: Devastating

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

Before they were hijacked by the "usual suspects" the gilets jaunes movement was successful in rolling back many of the original measures that brougt them out onto the streets in the first place.

That's untrue. They haven't succeeding in "rolling back" a single thing on their shopping list. Their only concrete achievement so far has been a pause on one of the government's key measures to combat climate change - a punitive tax on fuel (to replace the pay-as-you-pollute tax that thebonnets rouges overturned).

Just like their Brexiteer counterparts in the UK, they think that shooting themselves in both feet is a good prelude to threatening to shoot themselves in the head as part of their negotiations. And in that, they're not much different to Trump's supporters, voting for obsolete ideas that will and have made their lives worse.

All three countries have been dominated for hundreds of years by a governing class of two major parties, so its no surprise that the populace has been trained to think only in terms of black/white, them/us, friend/enemy; it's dispiriting, though, to see supposedly modern nations revert to a mediaeval mentality when there's plenty of evidence that government by consensus brings considerable rewards.

Mr.Wemmick

And a quick look at the papers this morning and the usual unashamedly bile dished out to readers.. "We are not getting our brexit!" cry. 'Tis like watching a sheepdog heard the sheep over the cliff top.

Big push for May's deal, while willfully ignoring the fact that the deal in place now is the best deal. Chaos in the HOCs is a great way of making sure common sense, if it walked in the door, is overlooked and ignored.

I am in the UK and this is very difficult to watch. I think much of the public are numb to it, like a reaction to a trauma.. in shock, layers of shock.

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1106824871563194368

350 signed up in total, according to Ian Dunt, and 50 doing the full route!

An Ciarraioch

Tories down 5% in the first poll since this week's votes:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1106812341440516097

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories down 5%

Bounce for Labour, none for UKIP. Did the missing % go to the TIGiwinkles?

No sign of Brexiteer fury at betrayal, people still leaning away from hard Brexit towards soft/remain.

An Ciarraioch

On course for one million passport applications this year:

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2019/0316/1036773-passports-numbers-record/

Calina

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yep, just like Norway and Switzerland are officially still joining the EU (for 25+ years now) and Sweden is likewise still joining the Euro since 1994.

1994 is like 25 years ago. Norway was supposed to join in 1973 with us. Pretty sure Switzerland's current status is over ca 40 years too.


Are you possibly older than you think...

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Bounce for Labour, none for UKIP. Did the missing % go to the TIGiwinkles?

No sign of Brexiteer fury at betrayal, people still leaning away from hard Brexit towards soft/remain.

Tories down, Labour up; everyone else irrelevant. The English electorate needs good slap ... :rolleyes:

Jim2007

Calina wrote: »

1994 is like 25 years ago. Norway was supposed to join in 1973 with us. Pretty sure Switzerland's current status is over ca 40 years too.


Are you possibly older than you think...

Switzerland decided to withdraw it's application in 2016.

Shelga

Just to recap- what are the reasons everyone hates May's deal, apart from the backstop? I think the vast majority of people, including myself, don't really understand it- we just know we're constantly told it's bad because it leaves the UK beholden to the EU, without any say.

It takes the UK out of the customs union and single market, and removes freedom of movement? Except for the fact that in reality it will be in the customs union forever, because there is no other solution for NI. And the withdrawal agreement only covers the period up til December 31st 2020, and says that the UK will remain in the single market and customs union during this period? I'm so confused.

How does it stop freedom of movement, if it only covers the UK til the end of 2020? Is the idea that some super FTA negotiated between now and then will fix everything? Except trade agreements will take about a decade.

The whole WA just seems filled with contradictions. What a colossal, shameful mess.

Infini

Shelga wrote: »

Just to recap- what are the reasons everyone hates May's deal, apart from the backstop? I think the vast majority of people, including myself, don't really understand it- we just know we're constantly told it's bad because it leaves the UK beholden to the EU, without any say.

In a nutshell: Haters gonna hate.

The backstop is just a rejection excuse nothing more nothing less its something to whine about being unacceptable and if it wasnt this it'd likely be some other excuse. The whole WA is essentially for an orderly withdrawal pending more concrete trade treaties down the road. It's to avoid the utter shítstorm of chaos that a hard crash would cause with over 70 different trade agreements becoming null and void all at once. The Brexiteers will throw out BS like Leave means Leave etc but the truth is one simply cannot just leave the EU when they built up their trade and infrastructures over the past 40 years as part of it and leave without serious consequences. It's just not practically possible without an agreement as the chaos of this is corrosive and dehabilitating.

The simple truth is those against it are against it because they cant have their own way because Brexit by nature was built on a foundation of lies, bullshít and ignorance of the actual practical working's of the EU. Thrown in a completely obsolete political system in the UK badly in need of a reform and the Russian Troll Federations meddling, plenty of toxic media publications peddling blatent lies and ignorant opinions like facts along with good ol Pig Ignorant Little Englander mentality politicians who throw all sorts of fits because they dont have the power to get their own way and the Dumbáss Unionist Party's incompetence and similar attitude and this is how the whole thing has gotten to this stage.

Honestly at this stage it would be better for the EU to simply cut them loose basically telling them if they dont want an agreement just go and be done with it otherwise call this off and never speak of it again. Otherwise own the problem of your own creation and deal with the consequences of that arrogance and stupidity of putting idiocy before reason.

Roger_007

I think that May is going to get her deal through. I don't know if she planned it this way, but as we approach the deadline the DUP and ERG are looking increasingly stupid to reject a deal that gives them more or less everything they wanted and with the distinct possibility that there could be another referendum which they might lose.
The next time around I expect the arch-brexiteers to vote for it while protesting loudly that they did so holding their noses.
TM might look like a master tactician in retrospect!

CelticRambler

Shelga wrote: »

The whole WA just seems filled with contradictions. What a colossal, shameful mess.

In that sense, it's a perfect reflection of Brexit ideology.

Shelga wrote: »

Just to recap- what are the reasons everyone hates May's deal, apart from the backstop?

You're asking the wrong question, which should be why does everone vote against May's deal? It's not so much a question of hating the deal as hating the process that's brought this deal to the Westminster table.

So you've got hard-Brexiteers who desperately want to drag the UK out of the EU as quickly and aggressively as possible. May's WA slows down that exit. You've got soft-Brexiteers who could possibly stomach it, except that it doesn't suit their political agenda to support a Tory proposal, especially when opposing it might even help their own cause. You've got Remainers who don't want to vote for it because that would hammer the last nail into the coffin of Britain's EU membership. And you've got a mish-mash of others who are following the "don't know/don't understand/whatever you do don't vote for change" mantra. Oh, and of course you've now got people who have to explain how, having voted against WA-MV1 and WA-MV2, they can justify voting for WA-MV3 when absolutely nothing has changed.

On top of (or underneath?) all of that, you've got the backstop/NI problem. NI really is the problem here, because all kinds of more palatable deals could be done if NI (and the DUP) didn't exist. It'll be interesting to find out next week what wheeling and dealing has been done to eliminate the NI problem, especially as any arrangement that gets the DUP back on TM's side will inevitably force the ERG to show their cards, and probably set them up for a head-banging contest with UKIP & the new Faragistes.