Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

awec

Judging by the tone of the current debate in the HOC MV3 has no chance of passing.

ArmaniJeanss

The Sun correspondent saying that Raab is going to support the WA.
Fairly comical stuff from Dom after resigning from Cabinet over the deal (which he'd negotiated himself)

Professor Moriarty

awec wrote: »

Judging by the tone of the current debate in the HOC MV3 has no chance of passing.

1/8 on a no vote with the bookies.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Merkel coming to Dublin on Thursday.

Varadkar to see Macron Tuesday.

Brexit discussions no doubt. I'm sure they both want to know exactly what the plan is on the island of Ireland in the event of "no deal".

I am sure they will, do you see some kind of significance in this?

The measures that will have to be adopted will be dependant on what the British do on their side. Under the obligations of the GFA they should implement something very simillar to the backstop in a no-deal scenario to keep the border open. This will require discussions and agreement between the sides to implement in the event of a no-deal. However, just because the British are obliged under international law to do this, that does not mean that they will in practice. If they fail in their obligations, then we will be left with no choice other than to implement border checks to ensure the integrity of our single market with the other EU member states.

lawred2

murphaph wrote: »

She has to also overcome those ERG members (eg Bernard Jenkin, Mark Francois) who are adamant they will not support the deal and add to those the remainers in the Tory party who are equally adamant. May is well short of the votes. I think it's extremely unlikely her deal will pass. I'd consider a GE more likely in fact.

Brexit is quite literally the only political movement where that lad could ever have gotten exposure... he's not a particularly deep or considered man.

Probably bought a long time ago

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

The HoC is not going to vote to revoke A50. Indicative Vote result was 184 v 293. Not going to happen.

If you look at the votes against then it could get the votes to pass. The indicative votes were subject to strategic votes because if an MP prefered option X over option Y, but did not want option Y to overtake option X, the MP would voted for X and abstain on Y.

Ony three of the eight indicative votes had an absolute majority against them, so the other three are all possible still.

.

bob mcbob

Behind a paywall but it looks like DUP are discussing supporting customs union option.

The fact they are even discussing it is interesting


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-customs-union-plan-could-sway-dup-and-nationalists-xbts2brfn

Supporters of a soft Brexit are in talks with the Democratic Unionist Party and Scottish Nationalists about keeping Britain in the customs union and single market after the country leaves.

Before another round of voting on alternative Brexit proposals in the Commons on Monday, supporters of the so-called Common Market 2.0 proposal have been asked into meetings with both party leaderships.

PokeHerKing

bob mcbob wrote:

The fact they are even discussing it is interesting

Soft Brexit beats being kicked out of their glorious Union.

Eod100

Anyone know a rough time for vote?

badtoro

looksee wrote: »

Headshot wrote: »

Unfortunately it's always going to be like this. I support your thoughts completely on this but unfortunately it's just what we see in Politics these days and I cannot ever see it change.

You will constantly see the likes of the British blaming the Germans for their woes in Europe and bringing up the war etc

That just simply is not true.

To be fair, I have seen and heard a great many British people refer to WW2, to a degree that would excite one of the prospect of watching paint dry instead.

I've also seen and heard them blame the Germans and French, saying they are the power holders, rather than viewing their own membership as part of a club. It does appear some see being part of a team as being subservient.

lawred2

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Soft Brexit beats being kicked out of their glorious Union.

but an all UK customs union is actually a sensible/pragmatic position for the DUP to take

but I'm sure I've heard them against that option before now

Laois_Man

Eod100 wrote: »

Anyone know a rough time for vote?

Orda ORDAAA


You can't expect them to be late working on a Friday

Around 2:30 I think!

briany

lawred2 wrote: »

but an all UK customs union is actually a sensible/pragmatic position for the DUP to take

but I'm sure I've heard them against that option before now

I don't know why the DUP would be against a UK-wide CU. I thought their problem was NI having to follow SM rules, putting a barrier between them and the rest of the UK post-Brexit.

Once it's an all-UK circumstance, I don't think the DUP are all that bothered.

Kermit.de.frog

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Soft Brexit beats being kicked out of their glorious Union.

In fairness they are unionists. You can hardly blame them for standing by their principles and electorate.

Donald Trump

briany wrote: »

I don't know why the DUP would be against a UK-wide CU. I thought their problem was NI having to follow SM rules, putting a barrier between them and the rest of the UK post-Brexit.

Once it's an all-UK circumstance, I don't think the DUP are all that bothered.

Maybe they're fond of the idea of having a nice border with soldiers on it to keep those pesky Southerners out.

Donald Trump

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In fairness they are unionists. You can hardly blame them for standing by their principles and electorate.

Not European Unionists though

lawred2

briany wrote: »

I don't know why the DUP would be against a UK-wide CU. I thought their problem was NI having to follow SM rules, putting a barrier between them and the rest of the UK post-Brexit.

Once it's an all-UK circumstance, I don't think the DUP are all that bothered.

I've definitely heard them trotting about the UK being prevented from making their own 'trade deals'

You know trade deals with behemoths like Madagascar

I'd say it's more a case of not liking something that the other side might like

ancapailldorcha

Laois_Man wrote: »

Orda ORDAAA


You can't expect them to be late working on a Friday

Around 2:30 I think!

Many of them have Saturday surgeries in their constituencies.

Inquitus

If it gets fecked out today as seems likely, I find it hard to see Bercow allowing it to come back, all eyes then switch to Monday's culmination of the indicative vote process as a potential way out!

PokeHerKing

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

In fairness they are unionists. You can hardly blame them for standing by their principles and electorate.

Oh I don't blame them. Merely pointing out why they'd be game ball for a UK wide customs union now.

In light of the fact that there's a very real possibility that NI could end up being closer aligned to Dublin than London by the end of Brexit.

ShooterSF

Inquitus wrote: »

If it gets fecked out today as seems likely, I find it hard to see Bercow allowing it to come back, all eyes then switch to Monday's culmination of the indicative vote process as a potential way out!

Wouldn't surprise me if mays plan was a vote to overrule his decision on the 10thish after rejecting whatever (if anything) gets voted for Monday. She wants her deal vs no deal

Today is an extra sitting so no other work is scheduled that they have to work around.

ancapailldorcha

Inquitus wrote: »

If it gets fecked out today as seems likely, I find it hard to see Bercow allowing it to come back, all eyes then switch to Monday's culmination of the indicative vote process as a potential way out!

I don't think it can come back. April 12th is when member states must start to prepare for the European elections. If it doesn't pass today then I think I think we have until April 12th to come up with a new plan. The WA is no longer valid after today I think though I could be wrong.

briany

I don't get the point of these hours of debates before the vote. Every sitting MP must have their mind made up and/or is being whipped to vote a certain way. Brexit is one of those things where the debate is going on 24/7 anyway.

c.p.w.g.w

In a different time zone with poor access to internet.

So what is happening, is the extension to April 12th happening?

Or is there a possibility of a UK crash today (march 29th).

Leroy42

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

In a different time zone with poor access to internet.

So what is happening, is the extension to April 12th happening?

Or is there a possibility of a UK crash today (march 29th).

Extension to 12th April is a given no matter what in reality.

No possibility that the UK will crash out today. The recent summit effectively extended the A50 period from the original 2 years, thus 29th March, to 12th April.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Extension to 12th April is a given no matter what in reality.

No possibility that the UK will crash out today. The recent summit effectively extended the A50 period from the original 2 years, thus 29th March, to 12th April.

If it's voted down today though, they can't run MV4 can they? My understanding was that it had to happen today.

seamus

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

In a different time zone with poor access to internet.

So what is happening, is the extension to April 12th happening?

Or is there a possibility of a UK crash today (march 29th).

No. The HoC approved the extension agreement yesterday. So the exit date is 12th April at the very earliest.

Today the HoC will have another debate and a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. It's a kind of odd arrangement that allows the UK to approve the WA in principle, securing an extension to 22nd May, without actually enacting it into law.

If it is approved today, they secure their extension and can move on to having a formal Meaningful Vote™ on it and thereby making it official. If it is not approved today, it is dead-dead and the UK government has two weeks to either ask for a much longer extension, or prepare to leave on 12th April with no deal.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If it's voted down today though, they can't run MV4 can they? My understanding was that it had to happen today.

Approving it today secures an automatic right to an extension until 22nd May. If they approve it next week, they would have to go back and ask the EU if the 22nd May is still on the table (it would be).

robinph

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If it's voted down today though, they can't run MV4 can they? My understanding was that it had to happen today.

If there is an unlikely scenario where it gets through next week any extension is dependant on the EU27 agreeing to it. They probably would, but the uncertainty of that is being used to try to scare more people into line and supporting Mays deal.

Laois_Man

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If it's voted down today though, they can't run MV4 can they? My understanding was that it had to happen today.

They have to be able to specify a path forward by April 12th to get a further extension. The path forward they specify could be "The the WA has now passed and that is our path forward".

But them finding a way for MV4 to be allowed to be held in order to give the above effect is probably a non-runner!

Although today is not technically MV3.....it sort of is really!