Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Spook_ie

On a lighter note, see that UKIP got out of bed early to put UKIP flags up in place of the plethora of EU flags one was used to seeing in TV backdrops.


Edit. I assume it's UKIP and not Pound Stretchers

aidyhawse

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think it can come back. April 12th is when member states must start to prepare for the European elections. If it doesn't pass today then I think I think we have until April 12th to come up with a new plan. The WA is no longer valid after today I think though I could be wrong.

The WA can still be valid, but today is the deadline for getting it passed to gain the longer delay to 22 May. I'm not sure what will happen in the case that it got passed next week, if it fails today, although I doubt it'll come to that as I can't see Bercow allowing it as it wouldn't meet the tests.

awec

Deal is never passing. This debate is pretty much one sided.

robinph

Someone has now turned up with a powered megaphone, rather than the bloke who was just shouting loudly into a cone previously, making it very tricky for the people being interviewed on TV to keep track of what they were thinking about now.

johnnyskeleton

If, and it's a big if, the House of Commons finds the withdrawal agreement without a declaration on the future relationship to be more palatable than both together, it is worth recalling where we were a year and a half ago.


Up to six months of important negotiations time was taken up, from the date of the formal Article 50 letter until the end of 2017, with the E.U. saying divorce bill first and then we talk about future trade relations, while the U.K. saying that they had to consider both together.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41089257

The parties eventually came to a somewhat uneasy peace with a binding withdrawal agreement and a political declaration as to the future relationship. But the future relationship was the U.K.'s key point - they felt that they could use the withdrawal arrangements (e.g. divorce bill, Northern Ireland, free movement etc) as leverage to get a better trade relationship post Brexit.

If, and this is also a big if, there was any consistency in U.K. politics, they would maintain that the withdrawal agreement alone is worse than the agreement with the political declaration, which they fought so hard for and wasted so much time on.

trellheim

Merkel is visiting next week, I presume to offer condolences

Sam Russell

I think the point about the 12th April being a deadline is being missed.

!2 th April is the last date for the writs to be moved for EU elections to be held on the 23rd of May. If the date of 12th April is past without those writs,then there will be no EU elections and the only option is leaving the EU by te 22nd of Merch without the option to revoke Art 50. So the only options left are the withdrawal agreement or crash out, but legally they could still revoke Art 50 if they are still members which would leave the EU exposed.

That is the logic behind the 12th April.

May should have threatened that if her deal was not passed, then she would revoke Art 50 and call a general election. That would concentrate minds.

Leroy42

Raab is going to vote for the deal. The deal he quit his job over as he couldn't support it, then complained to everyone that TM had railroaded the entire process and kept not only himself but also Davies out of the process.

But now he thinks its something worth voting for?

Kermit.de.frog

Quite a few switchers to support the deal.

It might have a chance of getting through.

Leroy42

Dominic Raab - The choice is the risk of being held in the backstop and a significant risk of losing Brexit altogether.

This seems to be a common theme from the likes of Johnson, JRM and others. As Matlis pointed out on Newsnight with JRM last night, they are willing to put the country into "slavery" (the term JRM used in talking about the WA) rather than lose out on Brexit.

I mean, that is just beyond bonkers. The UK have to take a much worse situation (again by their own admission) simply so they don't lose the ability to say they delivered Brexit.

Shelga

The EU, without UK, has 446 million of the richest people in the world. The UK will always always need them more then the rest of the EU needs the UK.

Farage was on Good Morning Britain again today, trotting out the usual rubbish about a 'WTO Brexit'. Within days of a No Deal outcome, the UK government will be begging the EU to trade with them. The first conditions will be payment of the £39 billion, and guarantees on the Northern Irish backstop.

There is no way to escape these realities.

June 2016 was one thing, but it is critical that the average voter educates themselves properly now. It's not good enough to say "just get on with it"- anyone who does so is just making themselves look completely thick.

Yes, the mainstream media and politicians have failed the people miserably. But people need to take personal responsibility for this too. 16.1 million people weren't taken in by the con, so it's time for the rest of them to grow up now. I really don't care if that sounds patronising. These people have destroyed their country for a generation and have no issue with taking Ireland down with them.

The whole thing is depressing beyond belief.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Raab is going to vote for the deal. The deal he quit his job over as he couldn't support it, then complained to everyone that TM had railroaded the entire process and kept not only himself but also Davies out of the process.

But now he thinks its something worth voting for?

these guys are a shambolic lot who are entirely without principle or wit

I do think the EU and the European project will be better off without

Laois_Man

Leroy42 wrote: »

Raab is going to vote for the deal. The deal he quit his job over as he couldn't support it, then complained to everyone that TM had railroaded the entire process and kept not only himself but also Davies out of the process.

But now he thinks its something worth voting for?

He's still going on about The Brady Amendment and going back to the EU and replacing the backstop with undefined ‘alternative arrangements’. :rolleyes:

He has no credibility regardless of how he votes.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Quite a few switchers to support the deal.

It might have a chance of getting through.

The real fear of a no Brexit outcome is concentrating mind's, so switch or lose everything.

Laois_Man

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Quite a few switchers to support the deal.

It might have a chance of getting through.

N'ah - they still need another 55-60 switches!

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Raab is going to vote for the deal. The deal he quit his job over as he couldn't support it, then complained to everyone that TM had railroaded the entire process and kept not only himself but also Davies out of the process.

But now he thinks its something worth voting for?

He doesn't hold a candle to another Brexiteer, Stephen Barclay, though. As Brexit Secretary, he argued for a motion in the HoC and then immediately voted against the very same motion. The hypocrisy of the Brexiteers is breathtaking.

seamus

Leroy42 wrote: »

I mean, that is just beyond bonkers. The UK have to take a much worse situation (again by their own admission) simply so they don't lose the ability to say they delivered Brexit.

It's all about the money. Back when there was a chance that the UK might leave with no deal or at least with a much "harder" deal, JRM and his ilk were railing against the WA, which would serve to deliver a softer Brexit.

Ultimately they have bet their money on devaluing Sterling. So the more devalued it becomes, the wealthier they stand to become. So for them, the harder the Brexit, the better.

Now they're even beginning to believe that a withdrawal of A50 is more likely than a crash-out Brexit, they're fighting to push through the only Brexit in town.

If the UK withdraws A50 or goes for a very long extension, Sterling will see a significant rally. And JRM and many others, stand to lose their shirts if that happens.

I don't think they really understood the zeal of the DUP. ERG took their line from the DUP when it looked like the DUP were going to march the UK into a full-on No Deal. The ERG could pretend they were standing up for the interests of NI.
Now that the DUP have pulled down the blinds and are refusing to deal with Brexit sensibly, the ERG have had to break step and try to fight to save Brexit on their own.

briany

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The real fear of a no Brexit outcome is concentrating mind's, so switch or lose everything.

Brexiteers wouldn't lose that much. Staying in the EU gives them a great big drum to beat. Wasn't it always Boris's plan to lose the ref and then stride to power on all platform of sticking it to Brussels?

In any case, Brexiteers always have the option of continuing to agitate for Brexit. For Remainers, on the other hand, once their cushy deal with the EU is gone, it really is gone.

ancapailldorcha

Post containing insult deleted.

Panrich

The tactics are obvious now for the ERG and some arch Brexiteers. They want to get this deal passed today to rule out a further long extension of Brexit. They will then turn coat and vote it down at the next stage leaving Labour to vote it through or face a no deal exit.

Spook_ie

Shelga wrote: »

The EU, without UK, has 446 million of the richest people in the world. The UK will always always need them more then the rest of the EU needs the UK.

Farage was on Good Morning Britain again today, trotting out the usual rubbish about a 'WTO Brexit'. Within days of a No Deal outcome, the UK government will be begging the EU to trade with them. The first conditions will be payment of the £39 billion, and guarantees on the Northern Irish backstop.

There is no way to escape these realities.

June 2016 was one thing, but it is critical that the average voter educates themselves properly now. It's not good enough to say "just get on with it"- anyone who does so is just making themselves look completely thick.

Yes, the mainstream media and politicians have failed the people miserably. But people need to take personal responsibility for this too. 16.1 million people weren't taken in by the con, so it's time for the rest of them to grow up now. I really don't care if that sounds patronising. These people have destroyed their country for a generation and have no issue with taking Ireland down with them.

The whole thing is depressing beyond belief.

Surely under WTO rules the EU wouldn't be able to not trade with the UK, they might not agree to an FTA but they would still trade.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Post containing insult deleted.

And another. No more insults please.

marno21

Full Newsnight segment from last night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dM-lxTgQ6U

JRM isn't even being referred to as a Tory here, "Chairman of the European Research Group"

Kermit.de.frog

Another Brexiter turned. Ross Thompson after voting against twice to now vote for the deal.

Water John

The EU are a bit ambivalent about today's vote, if the Govn't wins it looks likely the next PM to turn up for a chat will be Boris.
Looking at the March to Leave pic, it will be easy to count them, we won't have to guess at the numbers.

PropJoe10

I can't see the deal getting through without a major swing on the Labour benches, plus the DUP. Should be closer than before though.

MikeSoys

Russman wrote: »

I'm beginning to think a no-deal crash out through inaction is getting very likely. Even if May is removed, there's no way in hell the current HoC appoints Gove as PM, I just can't see him getting the numbers in any scenario. Same for BoJo. JRM is probably dead in the water after his multiple changes of mind, and last night's QT. I dunno, its just a complete stalemate. If Labour were even in the same time zone as competent they'd be making hay, but with Corbyn at the wheel that's not going to happen.
Really hard to see how it plays out. I think we'll eventually get to MV4 (or 5)and see how many MPs have to fortitude to vote it down at the last minute and guarantee a crash out......

they voted against a no-deal, nobody wants that.. 2 weeks ago i would have thought it was possible..but i cant see it happening now... this might drag on for years :-(

Inquitus

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I can't see the deal getting through without a major swing on the Labour benches, plus the DUP. Should be closer than before though.

You are right, she has a majority of 4 with the DUP, there are only up to 8 labour rebels so far, so with some ERG holding out and the DUP saying no, the numbers are simply not there. Unless there is a major Labour rebellion, probably 30-40 at least.

PropJoe10

Inquitus wrote: »

You are right, she has a majority of 4 with the DUP, there are only up to 8 labour rebels so far, so with some ERG holding out and the DUP saying no, the numbers are simply not there. Unless there is a major Labour rebellion, probably 30-40 at least.

Yeah, I can't see her getting many votes from the SNP for example, so it'll take the Labour back benches to rebel for this to pass, and judging by the speeches coming from there today so far, I don't see it. She'd need about 30 Labour votes without the DUP by my calculations.

Leroy42

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I can't see the deal getting through without a major swing on the Labour benches, plus the DUP. Should be closer than before though.

Its like the indicative votes.

They are only holding it today because it was part of the extension agreement with the EU. Failure to even hold a vote would, I suspect, go down badly with the EU.

But the hope must be that the scale of defeat is narrowed considerably, down into the 20's, so that TM can go to the heads of the EU and claim that she simply needs a bit more time and that despite saying that 12th April was contingent on the WA passing this week, that they allow TM a clear run to 10th April or so.

No skin of the EU's nose either way.

TM then has the cliff edge made cliffier, that 12th April is the drop dead date, that she cannot allow No deal and as such if she cannot get her WA through by 10th then she revokes A50 or asks for an indefinite extension.