Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

MikeSoys wrote: »

they voted against a no-deal, nobody wants that.. 2 weeks ago i would have thought it was possible..but i cant see it happening now... this might drag on for years :-(

This has been pointed out before. You 'cannot' vote against No-Deal. It is meaningless other than indicative of MP's not wanting No Deal.

If they do not accept May's Deal then No Deal is the default.

To avoid No Deal they have to come up with a Deal they will accept. Voting against it won't work.

Panrich

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its like the indicative votes.

They are only holding it today because it was part of the extension agreement with the EU. Failure to even hold a vote would, I suspect, go down badly with the EU.

But the hope must be that the scale of defeat is narrowed considerably, down into the 20's, so that TM can go to the heads of the EU and claim that she simply needs a bit more time and that despite saying that 12th April was contingent on the WA passing this week, that they allow TM a clear run to 10th April or so.

No skin of the EU's nose either way.

TM then has the cliff edge made cliffier, that 12th April is the drop dead date, that she cannot allow No deal and as such if she cannot get her WA through by 10th then she revokes A50 or asks for an indefinite extension.

The thing that is a bit refreshing is that the road is actually running out now and every decision and twist actually means something unlike the past two and a half years of going round in circles.

robinph

Inquitus wrote: »

You are right, she has a majority of 4 with the DUP, there are only up to 8 labour rebels so far, so with some ERG holding out and the DUP saying no, the numbers are simply not there. Unless there is a major Labour rebellion, probably 30-40 at least.

There is a couple of Tory remainers who have said they are not supporting it either.

PropJoe10

robinph wrote: »

There is a couple of Tory remainers who have said they are not supporting it either.

John Redwood, a Tory euro-sceptic, is also voting against it.

Anyone got any idea what time the vote will be at, approximately?

ancapailldorcha

PropJoe10 wrote: »

John Redwood, a Tory euro-sceptic, is also voting against it.

Anyone got any idea what time the vote will be at, approximately?

It's at 14:30.

PropJoe10

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's at 14:30.

Cheers. The Commons is pretty empty so thought it'd be a bit later!

awec

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Cheers. The Commons is pretty empty so thought it'd be a bit later!

They tend to just saunter in right before the vote.

I'm sure many of them are currently being prodded and enticed by May's team in various meetings. Corbyn probably has his front bench with him somewhere.

joe40

Hypothetically, how would posters here vote if you were magically given the opportunity to cast the deciding vote in HoC this afternoon.

Agree to the WA have the certainty of a deal but now Brexit will definitely happen.

Oppose the deal, so now have the opportunity of no Brexit or soft Brexit but also the continued risk of "No deal"

At this stage I think I would take the WA rather than risk "no deal" even by accident. Maybe that's why I would be no good at these high level negotiations, lose my nerve too easily...

Thoughts?

bilston

joe40 wrote: »

Hypothetically, how would posters here vote if you were magically given the opportunity to cast the deciding vote in HoC this afternoon.

Agree to the WA have the certainty of a deal but now Brexit will definitely happen.

Oppose the deal, so now have the opportunity of no Brexit or soft Brexit but also the continued risk of "No deal"

At this stage I think I would take the WA rather than risk "no deal" even by accident. Maybe that's why I would be no good at these high level negotiations, lose my nerve too easily...

Thoughts?

I would vote against it as I think we are getting closer to the possibility of a second referendum.

Vote it through and that's it. Game over Brexit happens and there will never be a way to reverse, not for a very long time.

ancapailldorcha

joe40 wrote: »

Hypothetically, how would posters here vote if you were magically given the opportunity to cast the deciding vote in HoC this afternoon.

Agree to the WA have the certainty of a deal but now Brexit will definitely happen.

Oppose the deal, so now have the opportunity of no Brexit or soft Brexit but also the continued risk of "No deal"

At this stage I think I would take the WA rather than risk "no deal" even by accident. Maybe that's why I would be no good at these high level negotiations, lose my nerve too easily...

Thoughts?

I would vote against it. It satisfies nobody. If it gets through we lose the ability to rescind Article 50 ourselves.

If we get a no deal and things go south, well, I've an EU passport.

PropJoe10

joe40 wrote: »

Hypothetically, how would posters here vote if you were magically given the opportunity to cast the deciding vote in HoC this afternoon.

Agree to the WA have the certainty of a deal but now Brexit will definitely happen.

Oppose the deal, so now have the opportunity of no Brexit or soft Brexit but also the continued risk of "No deal"

At this stage I think I would take the WA rather than risk "no deal" even by accident. Maybe that's why I would be no good at these high level negotiations, lose my nerve too easily...

Thoughts?

If I put my "British MP" hat on, I'd vote against it. Mostly due to the fact that they're being asked to vote for something today without having any idea of what happens next. Without a political declaration, they'd be going into the next phase without any idea and also likely with a new PM. Chaos.

Balanadan

Great day for it in Westminster, sun's out, crowds in the street, some Loyalist band playing the tunes.

PropJoe10

Two front benches have arrived now. Corbyn is in full swing.

Shelga

joe40 wrote: »

Hypothetically, how would posters here vote if you were magically given the opportunity to cast the deciding vote in HoC this afternoon.

Agree to the WA have the certainty of a deal but now Brexit will definitely happen.

Oppose the deal, so now have the opportunity of no Brexit or soft Brexit but also the continued risk of "No deal"

At this stage I think I would take the WA rather than risk "no deal" even by accident. Maybe that's why I would be no good at these high level negotiations, lose my nerve too easily...

Thoughts?

I’d vote against it. It’s significantly worse for the UK than remaining in the EU, and is hated by the electorate.

MPs have to try block out the noise and do what they think is right. This is getting increasingly difficult, granted.

hill16bhoy

If the vote on the withdrawal agreement fails today, it's obviously going to be by a much closer margin than before.

Are we expecting May to bring another vote on same within the next 10 days or so if this happens?

Would Bercow intervene again to try and scupper one on the basis he did this time?

robinph

As far as I'm concerned any option other than calling the whole thing off is all pretty much as bad as another (although I do really know they are not). I'm OK with taking the risk of no-deal on the off-chance that no-brexit is still possible.

awec

hill16bhoy wrote: »

If the vote on the withdrawal agreement fails today, it's obviously going to be by a much closer margin than before.

Are we expecting May to bring another vote on same within the next 10 days or so if this happens?

Would Bercow intervene again to try and scupper one on the basis he did this time?

I would imagine this is last chance saloon for the WA.

If it fails today, it's either no deal, softer brexit or no brexit.

And I believe at this stage the only way no deal happens is if the EU gets fed up and tells the UK to go and jump.

Mrsmum

Which option is better for Ireland ?

awec

Mrsmum wrote: »

Which option is better for Ireland ?

No brexit is obviously best.

WA is ok. The softer brexits, like customs union and common market 2.0 are ok for Ireland.

Assuming Brexit happens, Ireland wants pretty much anything (except silly tory unicorn options) except no deal.

hill16bhoy

awec wrote: »

I would imagine this is last chance saloon for the WA.

If it fails today, it's either no deal, softer brexit or no brexit.

And I believe at this stage the only way no deal happens is if the EU tells the UK to go and jump.

Stephen Bush on Newsnight the other night was of the opinion that May would go back for MV4, MV5 or even MV6 if necessary.

I'm not sure if anything past MV4 would even be possible, but I wouldn't doubt her willingness to do so if it was at all possible.

awec

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Stephen Bush on Newsnight the other night was of the opinion that May would go back for MV4, MV5 or even MV6 if necessary.

I'm not sure if anything past MV4 would even be possible, but I wouldn't doubt her willingness to do so if it was at all possible.

There could be a MV4 I guess.

If it's rejected today, and MPs don't find a way forward, come April 12th the message from the EU could be that at this stage it's literally WA or no deal, with a refusal to extend.

VinLieger

"Britain stands by its word"

Except for all of recorded history

PropJoe10

May is going on about the "spirit of compromise" now and how she's been willing to compromise so others should be too. Sometimes I wonder does she genuinely believe the crap she is shovelling.

bilston

Balanadan wrote: »

Great day for it in Westminster, sun's out, crowds in the street, some Loyalist band playing the tunes.

I expect the Met could have their hands full this evening

Strazdas

Mrsmum wrote: »

Which option is better for Ireland ?

Brexit being cancelled. Every other version would hit Ireland economically, including May's deal.

FrancieBrady

She can't rise above a slanging match.

Headshot

Here we go they are going to vote now.

I suspect 80 votes difference in favour of no

PropJoe10

DIVISSSSSIOOOOON!! Bercow really enjoyed that one!

branie2

I'd be surprised if the vote is for the agreement.

Inquitus

I'll go with a defeat with a gap between the Ayes and the Nays of 70-80