Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

PropJoe10

She'll lose by about 40-50 votes, I'd say. Anything closer would be surprising, and a win for May would be amazing.

Spanish Eyes

If, as expected WA fails again, will May resign today do you think?

PropJoe10

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If, as expected WA fails again, will May resign today do you think?

I doubt it. She'll simply plough onwards to MV4 next week. I admire her determination but that's about all.

Harry Palmr

Not much to admire about even that now - it's just pigheaded relentless psychosis. I'd love to see what a psychologist would make of her

robinph

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If, as expected WA fails again, will May resign today do you think?

Nah, even if she did though she'll be stuck as nobody else want's the job until after this is resolved.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If, as expected WA fails again, will May resign today do you think?

Definitely not. It's unclear where this is heading but she has given no indication she intends resigning within the next six weeks or so.

Akrasia

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I doubt it. She'll simply plough onwards to MV4 next week. I admire her determination but that's about all.

You mean MV3. She has said that this vote isnt MV3 because of reasons. She'll certainly accept it as meaningful if the result goes her way, but if it doesn't, (which it won't) she'll try again next week or the week after

nc6000

Strazdas wrote: »

Definitely not. It's unclear where this is heading but she has given no indication she intends resigning within the next six weeks or so.

Didn't she more or less say during her speech there that a different leader wouldn't change the views of the current MPs on Brexit.

Russman

I reckon it'll fail but by about 25-30 votes, if that.
I'm reminded of her speech when she became PM and she referred to herself as a "bloody difficult woman", so I think she'll be back for MV4, 5 etc as necessary.

Laois_Man

awec wrote: »

If it's rejected today, and MPs don't find a way forward, come April 12th the message from the EU could be that at this stage it's literally WA or no deal, with a refusal to extend.

The EU have pretty much come as close as is possible to saying straight out, without saying straight out, that if WA ratification fails, the only way they are getting an extension beyond April 12th is if either a general election or a second referendum is on the way.

These indicative votes on Monday don't matter a damn!

10000maniacs

I did a rough calculation, and there should be a swing of about 30 towards Mays deal on the last vote going on what I have seen on the news.
It needs a swing of 75 to win.

Strazdas

nc6000 wrote: »

Didn't she more or less say during her speech there that a different leader wouldn't change the views of the current MPs on Brexit.

The earliest she is talking about resigning is May 22, but the April 12 EU deadline could perhaps change things somewhat

funkey_monkey

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47696409

BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith says that if Theresa May does not win today's vote, but reduces the gap down to a small margin, she may try again.

"Were she to bring the votes right down to 10, a dozen, then she is in the market to try again and maybe get it over the line," he says.

First, Parliament would try the indicative votes process again on Monday.

"They know it was a shambles and they know they’ve got to do better," he says.

Supporters of the customs union and those calling for another referendum are looking to combine their proposals, he says.

"If they do not manage to get that majority, I expect Mrs May to come back with what’s called the Withdrawal Bill. She will try to get a majority for that, and I think she will try to convert that into a meaningful vote," he says.

Crazy talk. Ridiculous that this would even be entertained. Is this not anti-democratic?

RiseToMe

Speculation that it's a loss to government of 46

Laois_Man

funkey_monkey wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47696409



Crazy talk. Ridiculous that this would even be entertained. Is this not anti-democratic?

I think she is going to lose by nearly 100 anyway so it's irrelevant.

Harry Palmr

60 difference? Well at this rate in about three votes time May will win!

ancapailldorcha

344-286 No!

robinph

Not sure which doors they "lock", but that there are MP's chatting in the public lobby during the vote suggests that it's just ceremonial anyway.

10000maniacs

Rejected by 58

Akrasia

Ayes 286
Noes 344

ancapailldorcha

340-286. Mea cupla.

awec

Lost by 60 odd.

Headshot

Loses by 58 votes,

Can anyone remind me what confirmation referendum and custom votes got?

LizardKing

14 days ...

Akrasia

robinph wrote: »

Not sure which doors they "lock", but that there are MP's chatting in the public lobby during the vote suggests that it's just ceremonial anyway.

Its the doors to the division lobbies

devnull

Headshot wrote: »

Loses by 58 votes,

Can anyone remind me what confirmation referendum and custom votes got?

Customs union was by 6 after the recount.

PropJoe10

Another disastrous defeat. No Deal here we come.

ancapailldorcha

Thank goodness for that.

Strazdas

Harry Palmr wrote: »

60 difference? Well at this rate in about three votes time May will win!

Nina Schick saying on Sky that even if the deal was passed by 2 or 3, this would be an utter nightmare going forward and would be a very unstable political situation

Laois_Man

May strongly hinting that she is going to try again to get this ****e passed.