Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

nemefuria wrote: »

They voted FOR it today I believe.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/mar/29/how-did-your-mp-vote-on-the-withdrawal-agreement

Sorry, that's what I meant. They're changing their minds so quickly and often that it boggles the mind.

Professor Moriarty

By my reckoning, from a quick run through of the list of MPs, only four Labour MPs voted for the agreement? Interestingly, the list also showed SF MPs as abstaining - surprised they are even listed anymore.

nemefuria

Barnier is saying that a Custom Union political declaration can be agreed in 48 hours, and if MPs somehow agree on a consensus CU arrangement next week, then this means they could put the WA+PD (modified to support Custom Union) for MV4 before Apr 12 so therefore won't need an extension?

Dubh Geannain

Another MV so.

Why is the same logic not being applied to a second referendum? And why is May not getting bet across the head with this display of hypocrisy every second.

She talks about "compromise". Cross party compromises should have been established long ago at this stage. I can't understand why she is acting so stubborn yet she has folded to the ERG demands enough times showing she's not as stubborn as she's letting. And they are still not happy. The DUP won't compromise either. Look across the bloody floor already.

Is it that in a nutshell that the fate of the Tory party is paramount?

serfboard

Having previously described the agreement as making the UK a “slave state”, but now voting for it, JRM has obviously changed his mind. Hypocrisy of the highest order in denying the same privilege to the British people.

Enzokk

So another defeat. May will have a hard tome getting another vote on her deal again as she has had her chances. I believe another go will be seriously fought by Labour as the Speaker gave her an out by allowing a vote on only the WA and not the PD.

So I fail to see how he allows another vote. If he brings it back as today, it fails the test. If she removes the legal assurances she won after MV2 then it is MV1 and it should be rejected. If she runs MV2 again with the legal assurances she got after she lost the first vote, then it cannot be run again. So what can she realistically do? She will not get the changes she needs and if the Speaker is true to his word her deal will have died today.

Also, even if she gets MV4 or even MV5 or MV6 before 12th April and she gets it through, will she have enough time to get the legislation passed by May 22nd? That is why her deal should be dead even if she gets it passed, there are still a lot of time to go before they get everything in place that could lead to chaos and her stubborn desire to get her deal through.

I see there is tweets about a press conference from may at 5pm. Will she resign? I have thought that about 5 times before so I am saying no, she will just reiterate that her deal is the only way to get Brexit and try to blackmail more Conservatives to turn.

https://twitter.com/garius/status/1111646342567346180

Professor Moriarty

serfboard wrote: »

In fairness to Jacob, he said that he would vote for it if the DUP would. The DUP were quite clear that they wouldn’t so he had to follow through on what he had said just a few days previous. Having previously described the agreement as making the UK s “slave state”, but then saying that he would vote for it, he’s obviously open to changing his mind. Hypocrisy of the highest order in denying the same privilege to the British people.

As someone pointed out, the DUP don’t really care about what kind of Brexit is delivered, so long as all of the UK would be treated the same. However, absent CM+SU (or Remain!), I don’t see how that can happen.

Well, the DUP are between a rock and a hard place now. A softer Brexit or NI being thrown under the bus. Decisions, decisions. A silver lining in all of this is that the Tories and ERG will remember how the DUP repeatedly twisted the knife since 2016. They'll never be trusted again.

Panrich

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, the DUP are between a rock and a hard place now. A softer Brexit or NI being thrown under the bus. Decisions, decisions. A silver lining in all of this is that the Tories and ERG will remember how the DUP repeatedly twisted the knife since 2016. They'll never be trusted again.

And vice versa too. Their 'friends' in the ERG have thrown them under the bus in order to secure ANY Brexit. Trust both ways is blown I feel. The DUP will have to look elsewhere for bedfellows.

Dubh Geannain

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, the DUP are between a rock and a hard place now. A softer Brexit or NI being thrown under the bus. Decisions, decisions. A silver lining in all of this is that the Tories and ERG will remember how the DUP repeatedly twisted the knife since 2016. They'll never be trusted again.

Easy decision for the DUP.

"NO"

Enzokk

nemefuria wrote: »

Barnier is saying that a Custom Union political declaration can be agreed in 48 hours, and if MPs somehow agree on a consensus CU arrangement next week, then this means they could put the WA+PD (modified to support Custom Union) for MV4 before Apr 12 so therefore won't need an extension?

That would be enough of a change to allow another vote, but would the EU be willing for another go? I think the problem May will have is that they EU has given and given and I am sure there will be those that will decide that enough it enough. They will give their backing to us in the even of no-deal and will let it play out from there.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, the DUP are between a rock and a hard place now. A softer Brexit or NI being thrown under the bus. Decisions, decisions. A silver lining in all of this is that the Tories and ERG will remember how the DUP repeatedly twisted the knife since 2016. They'll never be trusted again.

A permanent customs union would be their out, as long as it would be an all-UK one. The fact that it would be against all of their previous stances on the EU and not actually leaving will be forgotten, but standing by your principles is in very short supply in UK politics right at this moment.

Also, the ERG and JRM has shot his credibility with the DUP. How can you seriously state you will wait to see which way the DUP will vote and you stand by them and then go and vote against the DUP stance? A farce.

serfboard

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Boris is some man for one man. A fine elected representative :rolleyes:

Labour MP David Lammy just tweeted this:

David Lammy wrote:

Voting for a deal you know will damage the country simply so you get another shot at becoming Prime Minister. Hard to think of a less principled stance on the #Brexit chaos you helped create. You are an utterly shameless charlatan who is unfit to hold office.

Spook_ie

Devil's Advocate...


If the EU accept a permanent CU then they have to change the WA to reflect this, so they are willing to change the WA.

Catch 22

Enzokk

Spook_ie wrote: »

Devil's Advocate...


If the EU accept a permanent CU then they have to change the WA to reflect this, so they are willing to change the WA.

Catch 22

Well before this is to happen May has to change her red lines and I believe the EU would be open to it, as long as the UK acknowledges it will have to ask for a long extension and participate in the EU elections.

I think the EU has always said they are open to talks if May drops some of her red lines, and a customs union is a red line.

farmchoice

Spook_ie wrote: »

Devil's Advocate...


If the EU accept a permanent CU then they have to change the WA to reflect this, so they are willing to change the WA.

Catch 22

they had said all along that if the brits moved on their red lines then the eu would be prepared to reopen the WA.
apparently barnier has confirmed this again today.

Infini

Spook_ie wrote: »

Devil's Advocate...


If the EU accept a permanent CU then they have to change the WA to reflect this, so they are willing to change the WA.

Catch 22

CU is the UK dropping one of its red lines hence it changes the outcome of the WA.

Professor Moriarty

Panrich wrote: »

And vice versa too. Their 'friends' in the ERG have thrown them under the bus in order to secure ANY Brexit. Trust both ways is blown I feel. The DUP will have to look elsewhere for bedfellows.

Their only hope of an ally would be UKIP. Who are virulently Europhobic. So, they would want as hard a Brexit as possible. But the EU would insist on a backstop. Thus, the DUP would have to vote against UKIP to preserve the union. Something vaguely familiar about that but I can't quite put my finger on it.

Spook_ie

Enzokk wrote: »

Well before this is to happen May has to change her red lines and I believe the EU would be open to it, as long as the UK acknowledges it will have to ask for a long extension and participate in the EU elections.

I think the EU has always said they are open to talks if May drops some of her red lines, and a customs union is a red line.

But like May the EU state time and time again the WA is not up for renegotiation.

Enzokk

Spook_ie wrote: »

But like May the EU state time and time again the WA is not up for renegotiation.

With her red lines it is not up for renegotiation as it will not change the deal she can get. If she changes her red lines it changes the potential outcome.

Duane Dibbley

Spook_ie wrote: »

But like May the EU state time and time again the WA is not up for renegotiation.

Based on TM red lines. The WA is agreed around her red lines.

Shelga

I cancelled my free Telegraph trial on the phone. The man asked the reason why. I don’t think he liked my answer very much.

A Dub in Glasgo

Spook_ie wrote: »

Devil's Advocate...


If the EU accept a permanent CU then they have to change the WA to reflect this, so they are willing to change the WA.

Catch 22

The EU said they will not reopen the WA if the red lines are still there. Clearly if the UK remove one or more of their red lines, then the WA will be opened to accommodate

MikeSoys

if there is a general election whos likely to win..

Itssoeasy

So shock horror the vote was lost. I know this may be unparliamentary language for both a national parliament and the hallowed halls of boards.ie, but is the phrase Cluster**** too kind a word to describe this mess in the UK ?

Headshot

MikeSoys wrote: »

if there is a general election whos likely to win..

Not much will change which says more about Labour than Conservatives

Frank Bullitt

MikeSoys wrote: »

if there is a general election whos likely to win..

Main thing to know is that everyone will still lose.

Peregrinus

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So shock horror the vote was lost. I know this may be unparliamentary language for both a national parliament and the hallowed halls of boards.ie, but is the phrase Cluster**** too kind a word to describe this mess in the UK ?

I think "catastroshambles" is the word you're groping for. And it has the advantage that boards.ie will not censor it.

Leroy42

I thought it would be closer than that. 56 votes is quite the defeat, particularly when No 10 pretty much threw every scare tactic at it.

TM has zero credibility. By announcing that she'll resign, much like a football manager, people lose any fear or desire to side with them as they will be gone and they either start looking after themselves or looking to side with who they think will be the next leader. Leadership change should nearly always be swift.

The MP's aren't happy, her party isn't happy, the opposition isn't happy and the people are not happy.

The UK has zero credibility in the EU, and there is certainly no faith that even if TM could get the deal passed, that the next leader would not look to create a whole new set of problems.

murphaph

MikeSoys wrote: »

if there is a general election whos likely to win..

Another hung parliament probably. If Labour came out strongly for revoke and remain they could poll well, despite Corbyn. There will be intense pressure on the front bench if a GE is called.

Leroy42

murphaph wrote: »

Another hung parliament probably. If Labour came out strongly for revoke and remain they could poll well, despite Corbyn. There will be intense pressure on the front bench if a GE is called.

Really? The latest polls don't suggest a massive swing for remain. Yes a swing, but we are taking 5 - 10%. And then it is all down to exactly where that is. If spread evenly then yeah, it probably makes sense, but if it is concentrated in remain areas then not so much.

I think we here on boards, and certainly in the EU, just cannot understand why people in the UK seem so intent on this course of action. They have been shown in any number of ways how terrible it will be, how they were mislead, how Leave campaign broke the law, and how very clearly this is all just a Tory catfight that has taken over the entire country.

But none of that seems to matter.

ArmaniJeanss

murphaph wrote: »

Another hung parliament probably. If Labour came out strongly for revoke and remain they could poll well, despite Corbyn.

Where does such a policy win them seats?
It might win them percentage points and definitely wins them total votes, but they don't really need any extra votes in their safe seats of London or Manchester anyway.
It's hard to see how it helps them in coastal town constituencies or the Midlands.