Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Franz Von Peppercorn

Infini wrote: »

He could've done far better but even during the Brexit referendum his participation was basically not there. If you want the top job you have to give it your all not sit back and let the place burn down. As for the DUP while you might point them as politicians of principal but they've got cronyism and corruption all over them not to mention incompetence. Hardly principal when they do everything to undermine their union by being utterly braindead in their approach.

There was no way the Labour Party could have been anti Brexit immediately after the vote. And Corbyn isn’t very pro EU, which used to be the default position of the left.

If one is voicing an opinion (piece) that's one thing. "Enemies of the People", "one last chance" and the like of publishing opinions as though they're facts and poisoning the well is another. When the line crosses from divergent view to provocative deceitful bullshít that's not me disagreeing that's calling it as it is. When argument's are made that have no factual basis or the information has been twisted with provocative wording thats no longer a newspaper its a propaganda rag.

I’m not sure how you would regulate that. There is something already called Ipso which is an alliance of newspapers to self regulate. Should the government really regulate for facts? What if in the US the trump government had shut down talk of Russian collusion. (Which turns out not to have been factual).

Their system isn't keeping out extremists because instead they've infiltrated the main parties (in this case the tories) and because the system is basically a duopoly between Labour/Tories with most of the stupity infecting the Tories we now got a paralysed system because the headbanger idiots have far more disproportionate power than they should.

Although Brexit is a crazy idea the fact is that 17.4 million people agree with it. In one version of the term extremism, a view on the extremes of society, then it definitely isn’t extremist. The other definition - an extreme view in itself - might apply but this view can hardly be ignored. We are talking about fptp vs proportional voting here and in fact it was the non proportional nature of Britain’s elections that kept the 17M in their labour or conservative boxes.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

I can understand why you would want the best for Ireland but why would you want to see the end of the UK?

I don't mean to speak for fash here but I'll give my own 2 cents. I particularly don't mind one way or another if the UK survives. However, two of its four member states voted to remain, one by over 60%. Now, the UK DID vote as one nation on this. But if you care about the integrity of the UK then you need to look at the viewpoint of the people of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Pushing ahead with Brexit while disregarding half of the constituent member states (though not half of the citizens) of the UK will further damage the ties that hold the UK together. The UK's economic success is probably the main reason that Scottish nationalism never gained serious traction until quite recently while Northern Ireland was conceived with the goal of establishing and maintaining Unionist Protestant hegemony.

All of the complaints that Brexiters made about the EU suddenly become true if you adopt the viewpoint of Edinburgh or Belfast and substitute Brussels for London. They have close to no clout in Parliament save for the current anomaly that is the DUP's supply and confidence agreement with the Tories. Scotland and Wales have devolved governments but Northern Ireland hasn't had one for over 2 years now. It's quite clear that England makes the choices and the other three must simply fall in behind.

No attempt whatsoever was made to reach consensus between the four states be it the fact that Scotland voted to remain partly because of the EU and Northern Ireland over the border. Wales voted to leave but when has anyone asked what the will of the people of Wales was? Is it the same as people complaining about sovereignty? Free movement? Economic deprivation? Will Brexit help Wales?

Nobody asked as far as I can tell.

Anthony Barnett has argued that the UK needs to break up. Ironically, British Euroscepticism is concentrated in England, the country that has virtually no institutions of its own. They've all been subsumed by the UK. All that remains is the Bank of England and English Heritage as far as I can see. I've seen no evidence to support the idea that the English voted to leave to reclaim their own institutions from the UK. Certainly, none of the English people I know have mentioned this and have found it odd when it's been pointed out to them. Anecdotal of course.

As it stands, Brexit will likely end or significantly damage the Union. I can't see how it wouldn't. Nationalists in Northern Ireland will be emboldened in calling for a Border Poll. Likewise for Scotland's Nationalists who will point to Brexit as being both against the will of the Scottish people and against the spirit of the remain vote in the Independence referendum of 2014. The greatest irony is that it's the so-called Unionists who have undermine the Union so much.

MrMusician18

Roger_007 wrote: »

"The EU has leeched billions from Ireland"..............
Really!
Ireland has been a net monetary beneficiary from the EU over the years. Ireland has also benefitted in many other ways. Membership of the EU has dragged us from being a priest-ridden social backwater into being a modern liberal democracy.
And who exactly are "the establishment "?. Would they, perchance, be the people that we freely elect to run the country. If we don't like them we can throw them out. If they don't perform and we don't throw them out, then it's our own fault.
Democracy does not guarantee a well run country. It merely facilitates it, provided the people make intelligent and well-informed decisions at the ballot box. The people we elect are an uncomfortably accurate reflection of society as a whole. If you want to see what Irish people are like, look at the Dail. It's not just part of what we are, it absolutely mirrors what we are.

You could argue that as Ireland agreed to open up it's waters in exchange for access to the European market that this is a cost of membership and the value is the cumulative value of the non Irish catch in Irish waters.

That is very simplistic though and very misleading. It is unfair to count fishing as a cost unless you include the value of access to the single market and European FTAs.

LeinsterDub

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That is very simplistic though and very misleading. It is unfair to count fishing as a cost unless you include the value of access to the single market and European FTAs.

I love how those whinging about fishing seem to entirely ignore the affect of modernisation which would of happened regardless of the EU. Modern super trawlers can do the work of entire fleets in the 60's

retalivity

Hurrache wrote: »

You couldn't make it up. His constituency was mostly remain too.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1111912246337245185?s=19

"John Conway is a pantomime producer, living locally"

He'll fit right in.

Shelga

May to try for MV4 before calling a general election:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/mps-reject-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-third-time

Even if the WA somehow magically was voted for, on the fourth attempt, how could this ever be accepted politically? It makes an absolute mockery of parliamentary process.

LeinsterDub

Shelga wrote: »

May to try for MV4 before calling a general election:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/mps-reject-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-third-time

Even if the WA somehow magically was voted for, on the fourth attempt, how could this ever be accepted politically? It makes an absolute mockery of parliamentary process.

Surely Bercow won't let her go again.

Loafing Oaf

Shelga wrote: »

May to try for MV4 before calling a general election:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/mps-reject-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-third-time

Even if the WA somehow magically was voted for, on the fourth attempt, how could this ever be accepted politically? It makes an absolute mockery of parliamentary process.

they're talking about running it off against the most popular of the indicative vote options. or something...

RobertKK

People talk about democracy...

It was a non binding vote from the very start in the referendum.
MPs are not elected with the purpose of damaging their country even if many seem to be think they have a mandate to do that.

There are so many actual people who have lost their minds on the issue of Brexit.
A pure Brexit, the EU made out to be some malignant bogeyman.
This is really just the UK failing to accept responsibility for the mess their country was in before any Brexit and the belief in a fairytale by some that Brexit will awaken some sleeping beauty (a dead empire) and it will all be good.
The thing is a lot of people pushing don’t believe the fairytale they tell, some do but they have convinced so many who want to believe in fairytales that sleeping beauty actually exists.

looksee

fash wrote: »

... leave Ireland as the main English speaking country in the EU.

Although with both the UK and the US shooting themselves in the feet we can only hope that English is well enough established to remain the go-to world language, and we don't all need to start learning Chinese.

Headshot

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Surely Bercow won't let her go again.

Bound to be ways around it.

I believe she could call an end to Parliament for this session and some days later reopen and therefor it's a new session and she can do another vote on MV

bob mcbob

prinzeugen wrote: »

It is interesting times. I predict that there will be a general election and it will be the death of the Labour party (unless they use voter fraud like last time).

Landslide for the Conservatives or UKIP. The SNP and Labour will be wiped out in Westminster.

And No deal exit. To be replaced by a deal 9 days later.. By the EU begging for something!

The EU is the problem!

The odds for this would be astronomical 1 million to one I would think.
Just think, if your political prediction is correct you could be a multi-millionaire for just a 10 quid stake.

If you really believe this, why not go ahead and place the bet. Then post it here and after it happens we will all be really jealous

As you are a strong unionist, the current odds on Scottish independence at next Indy ref are -

Next Scottish Independence Referendum Result
Against Independence (Fail) - 4/5
For Independence (Pass) - Evens

Inquitus

bob mcbob wrote: »

The odds for this would be astronomical 1 million to one I would think.
Just think, if your political prediction is correct you could be a multi-millionaire for just a 10 quid stake.

If you really believe this, why not go ahead and place the bet. Then post it here and after it happens we will all be really jealous

Aye that's delusion at its finest, a far right UKIP represented by BNP types like Stephen Yaxley-Lennon takes power in the UK.

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

May to try for MV4 before calling a general election:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/mps-reject-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-third-time

Even if the WA somehow magically was voted for, on the fourth attempt, how could this ever be accepted politically? It makes an absolute mockery of parliamentary process.

It does continues the descent into outright farce at this stage alright. May's deal supporters trying to take succour from the fact that her vote beat a couple of the indicative vote options is a bit sad, considering some of those supporting her deal were doing so out of pure desperation and in spite of the fact they totally hate it. Some of the more popular indicative vote options would almost certainly have done better if there hadn't been a tactical side to the first round of voting and had the pm allowed her deal to be part of that process, the likelihood is that it would have been smashed out of the water along with no deal and a couple of the other fruitcake options.

Evd-Burner

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Superb insight into how prepared the EU are and leaves one in no doubt that the EU will stick to their rules of engagement. A long read but well worth it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-uk-lost-brexit-eu-negotiation/

That's a brilliant article, well worth the read. It gives a great insight into the strategy of the EU!

Headshot

Dominic Grieve's just on sky news, he comes across so well, a bit of a class act.

The Conservatives party are getting really infiltrated by UKIP members and trying to destroy the party from within

Leroy42

And even if TM manages to get the deal past, it will be by a handful of votes and 8t won't solve the divide.

TM resigns, followed by Johnson who sets about tearing up the WA either directly or by making trade deals with the likes of the US that create massive regulatory issues for the EU.

Any deal passed now is almost meaningless.

devnull

Being reported now that a fairly substantial number of ministers and senior tory MPs (mostly ERG I'd assume) have written to Theresa May saying that she needs to go for No Deal and also talk about Malthouse.

No deal and Malthouse were the two options with the most noes in last Monday's indicative votes.

Democracy I think not.

Leroy42

Headshot wrote: »

Dominic Grieve's just on sky news, he comes across so well, a bit of a class act.

The Conservatives party are getting really infiltrated by UKIP members and trying to destroy the party from within

He does, but in truth he let his party loyalties blind him to the truth for too long. Recall he opted to withdraw a motion on the basis of promises from TM, which she went back on almost as soon as she had won the vote. A vote it appeared very unlikely she would win if Grieve had stood firm.

It now seems that he has finally woken up to what has been happening. I don't say that to blame him, his is a lifelong Tory and was operating on the basis of the normal Tory party.

Had he stood firm and TM suffered a defeat back then, she might have been forced to change course (and of course she might not!)

trellheim

The Conservatives party are getting really infiltrated by UKIP members and trying to destroy the party from within

"Getting" ? I think that streak has always been there.

Leroy42

devnull wrote: »

Being reported now that a fairly substantial number of ministers and senior tory MPs (mostly ERG I'd assume) have written to Theresa May saying that she needs to go for No Deal and also talk about Malthouse.

No deal and Malthouse were the two options with the most noes in last Monday's indicative votes.

Democracy I think not.

It certainly does appear that there is a significant amount of Tories, some Labour and certainly a large amount of the people who would opt for no deal.

We might not like it, agree with it or even understand it but it seems that quite a significant amount want out no matter what

LuckyLloyd

AllForIt wrote: »

I have to say also I think today is the worst day for democracy in my living memory. The fact that after 2 years since the UK public decided to leave the EU there is no prospect of that happening anytime soon.

This has come about imo by ppl who desire to undo Brexit. By a snobbish upper class of ppl who care more about their personal wealth than the country they live in.

It really is quite revolting to see what's going on.

There are no more snobbish than those who - with their generous public salaries, gold plated pensions and personal wealth - sold the working people of Britain a fantasy of a land of milk and honey outside the EU. Those who want to turn Britain into Singapore on Thames talk about history and country while coming from a long tradition of barely reserved hatred of the working class, their protections and their state supports.

There have been many dark days for British democracy over the past few years, and every time those rich snobbish charlatans with a public platform like Farage, Johnson, Davies, Rabb and Rees Mogg have lied to the public to pursue their own personal agendas it has fundamentally undermined a once great society.

What is revolting is that the poisoning of the well over the course of three decades has been so successful is that no matter what I say to you, what facts I provide to you and ultimately what charges may yet to be come for this entire charade in eventual public enquiries will never convince you that you might be wrong. Leaving the EU has become a quasi religious issue, impervious to reality or facts. It would have been a grand success somehow if only all involved had "believed" in it enough.

Roger_007

Roger_007 wrote: »

"The EU has leeched billions from Ireland"..............
Really!
Ireland has been a net monetary beneficiary from the EU over the years. Ireland has also benefitted in many other ways. Membership of the EU has dragged us from being a priest-ridden social backwater into being a modern liberal democracy.
And who exactly are "the establishment "?. Would they, perchance, be the people that we freely elect to run the country. If we don't like them we can throw them out. If they don't perform and we don't throw them out, then it's our own fault.
Democracy does not guarantee a well run country. It merely facilitates it, provided the people make intelligent and well-informed decisions at the ballot box. The people we elect are an uncomfortably accurate reflection of society as a whole. If you want to see what Irish people are like, look at the Dail. It's not just part of what we are, it absolutely mirrors what we are.

I see your problem there.

And with massive media distrust creeping into the heads of one time rational people, I see no way to stop the rot of conspiracy nonsense.

LuckyLloyd

Excellent articulation of the essential crisis Brexit presents for the concept of the "Union" ancapailldorcha.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The infiltration of the Tory party by UKIP is a positive development. They'll push the party further to the right while One Nation Tories will leave to form a centre right party. Thus, the likes of Boris and Jacob will be where they always should have been, in a minority party on the fringes of parliament.

There’s a funny attitude in this thread that Brexit is a tiny extremist philosophy. It’s clearly nuts but it’s probably the belief of most of the Conservative party voters and definitely the membership. They didn’t vote for UKIP because general elections are voted for on more than one topic, and also for reasons of party loyalty. In the European elections they did defect a bit.

The reason that the Cons had this referendum to begin with was this very fear of UKIP to their right, taking votes, and internal Tory brexiters.

ShooterSF

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The infiltration of the Tory party by UKIP is a positive development. They'll push the party further to the right while One Nation Tories will leave to form a centre right party. Thus, the likes of Boris and Jacob will be where they always should have been, in a minority party on the fringes of parliament.

The ironic thing is the torries hold their power often because of FPTP voting and being the only major "right" party and it is the very reason they're so divided now. A split would see two parties splitting votes and probably losing seats to the left and ultimately shifting the balance of power in the UK. The party needs to stay together even if they are actually miles apart if they want to keep power.

Headshot

Leroy42 wrote: »

He does, but in truth he let his party loyalties blind him to the truth for too long. Recall he opted to withdraw a motion on the basis of promises from TM, which she went back on almost as soon as she had won the vote. A vote it appeared very unlikely she would win if Grieve had stood firm.

It now seems that he has finally woken up to what has been happening. I don't say that to blame him, his is a lifelong Tory and was operating on the basis of the normal Tory party.

Had he stood firm and TM suffered a defeat back then, she might have been forced to change course (and of course she might not!)

Yes he has been very naive in all of this but I supposed it's never to late to wake up.

On a separate note I wouldnt be surprised if he ends up in the Change UK Party.

Franz Von Peppercorn

ShooterSF wrote: »

The ironic thing is the torries hold their power often because of FPTP voting and being the only major "right" party and it is the very reason they're so divided now. A split would see two parties splitting votes and probably losing seats to the left and ultimately shifting the balance of power in the UK. The party needs to stay together even if they are actually miles apart if they want to keep power.

Again this analysis assumes Brexit is a tiny minority position. In fact if a Brexit party formed and won seats in the constituencies where Brexit won in the referendum, the Brexit party would get 70% (approx) of the English MPs. The SNP have only 45% of the Scottish vote but dominate Westminster elections.

Evd-Burner

Evd-Burner wrote: »

That's a brilliant article, well worth the read. It gives a great insight into the strategy of the EU!

Absolutely brilliant and one of the best on any topic I've read.

I too hadn't really grasped those details of the EU's strategy. Fair play to Ireland for the diplomatic work it employed to garner the support of a bloc it represents 1% of.

Shelga

I still don't understand why the DUP wanted Brexit at all. From a unionist standpoint, remaining in the EU is so blindingly obviously the right thing.

Is it just because their Tory English nationalist overlords wanted it? Is there some weird inferiority complex going on?

Instead of the DUP saying "this is not the Brexit that's best for the country" every time they were interviewed about not approving May's deal, why weren't they coming out strongly against leaving altogether?

I know the idea of a hard border and ripping up the GFA is great to them, but they must have seen it would never ever work in reality. The status quo was best for them and their ideology.

I don't think I'll ever understand it.