Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Euro problem could be sorted by the GB£ being hard pegged to the Euro, so the UK keeps the GB£ but it is really a Euro currency, which is how the Danish and Swedish Kroner work.

Schengen can be sold as a better security border, as this is how it has worked because of the greater international security it has afforded.

I think that neither would be a biggie for the desperate UK should they wish to rejoin. Of course, if they are not desperate, the that would be different.

That was tried before, remember the ERM when the pound was tied to the ECU, the markets bet against the pound and forced it out.


As it is, if the UK leaves, they'll never sign up for full membership, the political fallout from such a move will drop any future UK government.

Irish Praetorian

trellheim wrote: »

a 2nd referendum with a 52-48 result in the other direction would be just as bad, if not worse, than the current. You'd need a 75-25 or 2/3 to 1/3 in favour for it to have any chance of acceptance.

Given the votes on Letwin during the week there is no chance of any of that, assuming the HoC as a representative body.

Where is the "Art of the Possible" here ? i.e. the sensible people who know that a deal HAS to be done . For me this is the appalling outcome here that this aspect of it, the "yes its not perfect but its whats possible"

This is what politicians are paid to do, when the arguing is done . Ours are no different.

The present polling suggest something like a ten point lead of Remain over Leave, which might end up further bifurcated if something like May's deal was included as part of an AV system.

Ultimately though I think the problem is that whichever side 'wins' there is going to be massive unrest and disaffection amongst their opponents - that being the case perhaps it make sense to come down on the result that promises only popular unrest, rather than popular unrest AND an enormous reconfiguration in the economic and political landscape.

joe40

trellheim wrote: »

a 2nd referendum with a 52-48 result in the other direction would be just as bad, if not worse, than the current. You'd need a 75-25 or 2/3 to 1/3 in favour for it to have any chance of acceptance.

Given the votes on Letwin during the week there is no chance of any of that, assuming the HoC as a representative body.

Where is the "Art of the Possible" here ? i.e. the sensible people who know that a deal HAS to be done . For me this is the appalling outcome here that this aspect of it, the "yes its not perfect but its whats possible"

This is what politicians are paid to do, when the arguing is done . Ours are no different.

I don't think so. A remain vote however slender means the status quo in relation to EU stands.
There might be plenty of bickering but at least the lies that leaving the EU would be easy have been resoundingly debunked.
Staying is a lot easier than leaving.

marno21

A second referendum of one option where all in favour are generally on the same page vs a range of diverse options all whittled into an option called "Leave" would be even more foolish than the first. It's a total non runner.

This mess will only get worse when the opposition are facilitating such a dysfunctional shambles being ran by some of the most incompetent charlatans imaginable. Aside from Johnson or Rees Mogg or the other hardliners, the opposition should be tearing apart the likes of Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Dominic Raab, Karen Bradley for both their actions and words over the last while.

Professor Moriarty

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

The present polling suggest something like a ten point lead of Remain over Leave, which might end up further bifurcated if something like May's deal was included as part of an AV system.

Ultimately though I think the problem is that whichever side 'wins' there is going to be massive unrest and disaffection amongst their opponents - that being the case perhaps it make sense to come down on the result that promises only popular unrest, rather than popular unrest AND an enormous reconfiguration in the economic and political landscape.

Actually, the average lead in 2019 polls is just 6%.

Irish Praetorian

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Actually, the average lead in 2019 polls is just 6%.

Can I trouble you for a source on that?

Professor Moriarty

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Can I trouble you for a source on that?

No problem - Here

Franz Von Peppercorn

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

The present polling suggest something like a ten point lead of Remain over Leave, which might end up further bifurcated if something like May's deal was included as part of an AV system.

Ultimately though I think the problem is that whichever side 'wins' there is going to be massive unrest and disaffection amongst their opponents - that being the case perhaps it make sense to come down on the result that promises only popular unrest, rather than popular unrest AND an enormous reconfiguration in the economic and political landscape.

Some prior polling to the original referendum had that kind of margin. Internal Tory polling had it at 60-40, which is why Cameron had no backup plan. They underestimated people who didn’t normally vote. This time of course the remainer vote might be underestimated as they might be more energised to vote than last time.

A 2nd referendum is still a better option.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No problem - Here

The dont knows seem to be breaking to leave over time.

Edit. Read that wrong. It’s fairly even.

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

The dont knows seem to be breaking to leave over time.

Edit. Read that wrong. It’s fairly even.

It's interesting in that you can filter by polling company for even more consistency. Also, polls for the first three months of 2018 showed a lead of 2% for Remain compared to 6% for 2019.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

That was tried before, remember the ERM when the pound was tied to the ECU, the markets bet against the pound and forced it out.

If it was tied to the Euro, it would be a Euro currency backed by the ECB and its big bazookas. No betting against them would win.

The ERM was the snake, and it did not work because all the currencies could move against each other. If the GB£ was pegged, it would be pegged no matter what. The BofE would be of the same status as the Central Bank of Ireland, or any other central bank in the Euro zone.

An Ciarraioch

Tim Shipman really appears to be taking the hump over the backstop:

http://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1112025988811112450

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

If it was tied to the Euro, it would be a Euro currency backed by the ECB and its big bazookas. No betting against them would win.

The ERM was the snake, and it did not work because all the currencies could move against each other. If the GB£ was pegged, it would be pegged no matter what. The BofE would be of the same status as the Central Bank of Ireland, or any other central bank in the Euro zone.

Loss of control of the currency was one of the red lines to joining the Euro before Brexit, zero chance of that now.

Capt'n Midnight

Peregrinus wrote: »

This is not a problem of speculation or speculators. It's a practice that Brexit encourages and, for some companies, more or less forces.

The problem is that not just drug companies but companies in many other industries stockpiled perishable goods against the possiblity of a hard Brexit yesterday.

On the day the UK was supposed to leave they realise that there might be problems ?

It's almost as if they didn't think the whole thing through before triggering Article 50.

Peanut Butter Jelly

After the last few weeks, my mind goes back to the election in 2017. How different would all this have been had it never happened? To go from a single party majority to being in with the DUP, strengthened Labour presence in HoC, and this mess we now have to deal with. It might not have made any difference, but it's hard to believe it could have been any worse

Peanut Butter Jelly

Peanut Butter Jelly wrote: »

After the last few weeks, my mind goes back to the election in 2017. How different would all this have been had it never happened? To go from a single party majority to being in with the DUP, strengthened Labour presence in HoC, and this mess we now have to deal with. It might not have made any difference, but it's hard to believe it could have been any worse

If that GE had not been called, May's deal would have most likely passed (just) as they had an absolute majority and the hard Brexiteers would have insufficient numbers to block it.

FrancieBrady

Peanut Butter Jelly wrote: »

After the last few weeks, my mind goes back to the election in 2017. How different would all this have been had it never happened? To go from a single party majority to being in with the DUP, strengthened Labour presence in HoC, and this mess we now have to deal with. It might not have made any difference, but it's hard to believe it could have been any worse

We'd be well into them getting owned in trade negotiations.

Water John

What majority did the Tories have prior to the 2017 GE? Numbers were small.
Not enough to take it out of the grip of the ERG. The DUP have only been a sideshow as they objected to the backstop. The ERG would have other issues and would not have supported the present Deal.
May calling the election was a big error but we would still be in the same place.

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

Labour can't get a majority no matter what they do. Like most, I'd have been more of a Labour type before all of this. Now, I just see nonsense.

The Monarchy would do better than any of them.

An absolute monarchy can't be a member of the EU, thats why Vatican City is not allowed to join.

Water John

Is the Pope a King, is Monaco out or in?

Akrasia

Water John wrote: »

Is the Pope a King, is Monaco out or in?

Monaco is not a member of the EU but it is in the customs union and on the council of Europe

An Ciarraioch

Akrasia wrote: »

Monaco is not a member of the EU but it is in the customs union and on the council of Europe

Has been part of a customs union with France since 1865, while Andorra reached an agreement with the EU in 1991.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andorra–European_Union_relations

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/monaco/france-and-monaco/

Loafing Oaf

Imreoir2 wrote: »

An absolute monarchy can't be a member of the EU, thats why Vatican City is not allowed to join.

That's hardly fair, the pope is democratically chosen. Okay the electorate is fairly restrictive:P

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

What majority did the Tories have prior to the 2017 GE? Numbers were small.
Not enough to take it out of the grip of the ERG. The DUP have only been a sideshow as they objected to the backstop. The ERG would have other issues and would not have supported the present Deal.
May calling the election was a big error but we would still be in the same place.

In the last two elections the Tories got

2015 36.9% 11,334,226 votes 330 seats - so a majority of 10
2017 42.4% 13,636,684 votes 317 seats
so 5.5% more of the vote translated into 13 less seats, because FPTP or magic

Labour went from 30.4% of the vote to 40.0% and got just 4 more seats.
More people vote for Labour in 2017 than Tory 2015, but there was a higher turnout.

So the two biggest parties got a combined 15% bigger share of the vote but that resulted in less than 2% change in their representation in the House of Commons.

Since most Tory seats are safe seats the party holds absolute power over most MP's by the simple act of deseelection.

CBA looking it up, but in a recent election 22 million votes were wasted compared to the system we use. They were either surplus votes or votes for canidates that didn't finsh second. Here those votes would have been redistributed and may, or may not have changed the result.

BTW The ads for Alternative Voting in the UK seemed to say the result would always be changed, small wonder it failed. Like the wording on the referendum it seemed to be calculated to provide a particular outcome that neutral words wouldn't have

Deleted User wrote: »

If that GE had not been called, May's deal would have most likely passed (just) as they had an absolute majority and the hard Brexiteers would have insufficient numbers to block it.

May would have been able to threaten the ERG members with going to the DUP instead ( giving a majority of 18 ) , deselection, or an election were Labour could have won.

Instead she lost the election, she called her own bluff there.
And the DUP that could have been ignored otherwise dug their heels in over the backstop.


Yes she got 5.5% more of the vote. 2,302,458 more votes than 2015
but was 533 voters short of an overall majority Ha Ha !



And that's why she was an ejit for calling for a new election because she knew how FPTP works and that the UK government , like the US one is decided mostly on key marginals. Good or bad weather has a huge effect on close votes in such systems.

Water John

In effect May went from a poor position, forma workable majority POV, to a poorer one, but not that dramatic.

RobertKK

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tim Shipman really appears to be taking the hump over the backstop:

http://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1112025988811112450

The problem for some Brexiteers is little Ireland is seen as getting in the way.
It was suppose to be the big boys fighting it out and the UK holding all the cards, but they are finding it embarrassing that Ireland is a lot more powerful than they thought...due to the EU they want to exit.

Leroy42

RobertKK wrote: »

The problem for some Brexiteers is little Ireland is seen as getting in the way.
It was suppose to be the big boys fighting it out and the UK holding all the cards, but they are finding it embarrassing that Ireland is a lot more powerful than they thought...due to the EU they want to exit.

But in reality it isn't even Ireland that is the problem. Its the EU rules. Ireland just happens to be where the fantasy meets the reality in the most easy to understand way.

But in so many other areas, seemingly small but nonetheless important areas, the UK are facing multiple 'Irelands'.

Custom checks, passport controls, regulations, medicine approval boards, data sharing, FoM, banking and international finance, aviation, drivers licences, chemicals...the list is almost endless.

It makes a simple narrative to blame it all on Ireland, but if the backstop had not been the problem then the myriad of other issues would have tripped them up (and did to be fair).

Water John

It isn't so much us, it's anyone who isn't them. That xenophobic streak is in there if you scratch many of them.
A friend was telling me yesterday of relations who have lived in the UK for 30 years. Very good friends with their neighbour. Was talking to them the day after the Ref and was lamenting the result. The neighbour said he voted Leave. The relation said what about me, I don't know if I will be allowed stay. 'Go back to your own country' was the reply.

Call me Al

RobertKK wrote: »

The problem for some Brexiteers is little Ireland is seen as getting in the way.
It was suppose to be the big boys fighting it out and the UK holding all the cards, but they are finding it embarrassing that Ireland is a lot more powerful than they thought...due to the EU they want to exit.

Crispin Blunt was on radio 1 a few weeks back lamenting the disaster that was unfolding and audibly frustrated. It wasn't supposed to be like this. The terms of the divorce/withdrawal agreement should have been ignored apparently, and they should have been discussing the future relationship straight away. And little old Ireland were supposed to have been the UK's cheerleaders on the sidelines in Brussels fighting the EU bureaucracy for a good deal for our neighbours, thus saving the border (and incidentally their political reputations) in the process.
How badly has this blown up in their faces!
That Politico article shared here earlier sums up the missteps made every inch along the Brexit road they've trodden. And that idiot then has the audacity and arrogance to challenge Simon Coveney by claiming he could do more to help Dominic Grieve's career.

An Ciarraioch

Two opinion polls (ChUK and non-ChUK) make grim reading for the Tories:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107560222511110

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107512478736385