Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

swampgas

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

An Ciarraioch

Brexit polling opposes no deal, but gives a margin-of-error lead for a second referendum and revoking Article 50:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116730963341315

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361

eire4

swampgas wrote: »

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

I tend to agree that at this point only the cold hard slap of reality that a no deal exit would bring is the most likely way of waking them up from the delusional world they are currently living in.

Infini

swampgas wrote: »

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

Truth be told if a Hard Brexit occur's the breakup of the United Kingdom is the next step as Scotland will want out and Northern Ireland will likely veer towards reunification.

I would prefer that Brexit were cancelled but those who pursued this and ultimately caused this against every sane warning only deserve the worst to happen.

Headshot

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Two opinion polls (ChUK and non-ChUK) make grim reading for the Tories:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107560222511110

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107512478736385

wow I havent seen Labour in the lead for a long time, even with Corbyn in charge

Spook_ie

Water John wrote: »

It isn't so much us, it's anyone who isn't them. That xenophobic streak is in there if you scratch many of them.
A friend was telling me yesterday of relations who have lived in the UK for 30 years. Very good friends with their neighbour. Was talking to them the day after the Ref and was lamenting the result. The neighbour said he voted Leave. The relation said what about me, I don't know if I will be allowed stay. 'Go back to your own country' was the reply.

To be fair, Irish people have been telling the English that for 800 years.

Duane Dibbley

Infini wrote: »

Truth be told if a Hard Brexit occur's the breakup of the United Kingdom is the next step as Scotland will want out and Northern Ireland will likely veer towards reunification.

I would prefer that Brexit were cancelled but those who pursued this and ultimately caused this against every sane warning only deserve the worst to happen.

You have to wonder if the EU really want the UK to revoke A50

I would think a Norway Deal would benefit the EU more so they don’t have to deal with the political bull**** from the UK Government

Mr.Nice Guy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Brexit polling opposes no deal, but gives a margin-of-error lead for a second referendum and revoking Article 50:

I'd be curious to see what the numbers are on supporting no deal in England versus the rest of the UK. I would be inclined to think that England - excluding London - would now be for No Deal.

An Ciarraioch

Hugh O'Connell is interviewing Nigel Farage tomorrow:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1112116047836930049

Headshot

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hugh O'Connell is interviewing Nigel Farage tomorrow:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1112116047836930049

Why these broadsheets give the likes of Farage any voice is beyond me, he's a nasty piece of work that shouldnt get any air time what so ever

it's something you expect by the likes of the telegraph....

Strazdas

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

You have to wonder if the EU really want the UK to revoke A50

I would think a Norway Deal would benefit the EU more so they don’t have to deal with the political bull**** from the UK Government

People seem to be ignoring too that there's no guarantee of a long extension even if the UK request one. The EU might refuse the request in 12 days' time, especially if they think May or her government are acting in bad faith.

FrancieBrady

swampgas wrote: »

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

I wouldn't be that pessimistic about EU elections. An awful lot of people seem more vocal about being pro EU at the moment in the UK. I get the sense that many Brexiteers have been put back in their box.

swampgas

swampgas wrote: »

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

This. I'm of the same mind for a long time now. The best case scenario would be for all the hard Brexiteers and rightwing ideologues to be in government making decisions/having their bluff called each and every day. Force them to discredit themselves and the decades of anti-EU scapegoating propaganda of the British media and political class. Otherwise they will be on the outside bringing down everybody else à la Paisley for 40 years.

Of course, they know this so the last thing they'll want is to destroy their ideological purity by being in government and "selling out" the deluded that they've been "leading" for years.

FrancieBrady

Hopefully this will convince any wavering Brexiteers. I think there might be many of them at this stage of the shambles.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/30/gove-johnson-under-fire-vote-leave-fine-appeal-dropped?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&fbclid=IwAR2OSi8lMFpvsKwd5POm1-TZqd0TyHH7Mlje3S8RMIOEH1JImpQsWCU4L9U

briany

Deleted User wrote: »

This. I'm of the same mind for a long time now. The best case scenario would be for all the hard Brexiteers and rightwing ideologues to be in government making decisions/having their bluff called each and every day. Force them to discredit themselves and the decades of anti-EU scapegoating propaganda of the British media and political class. Otherwise they will be on the outside bringing down everybody else à la Paisley for 40 years.

Of course, they know this so the last thing they'll want is to destroy their ideological purity by being in government and "selling out" the deluded that they've been "leading" for years.

If the more vociferous Brexiteers have not been discredited by now, they never will be. I think there's a bit of fantasy going on with the Remain side that the Brexiteers will be found out, or rather that their supporters will turn on them, and the air will be let out of the movement. Your true blue Brexiteer will ignore lie after lie from their own leaders, and blame any and all negative consequences on EU intransigence and Remainer sabotage. And that's just the negative consequences they're willing to admit to.



I don't see any way out of it, and if a hard Brexit does happen, it's only going to drive the two sides further apart. In fact, I envision a scenario where the two sides are living in the same space but parallel realities, whereby the hardcore Remain people are staggering down the street like the air has been poisoned, and the hardcore Leave people are skipping down the street like the air has been spiked with a mild opiate.

RobertKK

swampgas wrote: »

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

I think a lot of people have switched to this position.
Sense has not returned, and if people are going to keep pushing lies, maybe we all need the pain of no deal to maybe save ourselves from something worse as Donald Rumsfeld would say the unknown unknowns.
The people who keep pushing lies, the people who were in parliament square listening to Tommy Robinson, I agree beyond redemption...and they need to experience reality of what they are pushing.
Everything they disagree with is 'project fear' and anything other than a hard no deal Brexit would be used to promote more of the same crap and help the far right more.
So while no deal is really bad, maybe the alternatives would have worse effects from a political viewpoint.
The UK is in a really bad place at the moment, and its just getting worse.

I have way too much sympathy and respect for the decent British that marched last week to wish a hard Brexit on the UK.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Strazdas wrote: »

People seem to be ignoring too that there's no guarantee of a long extension even if the UK request one. The EU might refuse the request in 12 days' time, especially if they think May or her government are acting in bad faith.

Apparently Paris is increasingly hostile to the U.K.

But it’s the commission that will agree on extensions.

ThePanjandrum

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Brexit polling opposes no deal, but gives a margin-of-error lead for a second referendum and revoking Article 50:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116730963341315

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361

Before you get too excited I would just point out that these polls were carried out by Deltapoll.

briany

I think the EU position should grant another month's extension up to 22/05 and say to May "if you don't come back to us before this date with a way to decisively answer the question of the UK's membership, then you are out."

The 12th of April just isn't enough time, imo.

tuxy

briany wrote: »

I think the EU position should grant another month's extension up to 22/05 and say to May "if you don't come back to us before this date with a way to decisively answer the question of the UK's membership, then you are out."

The 12th of April just isn't enough time, imo.

I think the 12 of April was picked at it's as long as they can hold off on preparations for the MEP elections. An extension to 22nd May wouldn't work as if they revoked article 50 at the last minute how could they possibly hold elections the following day?

Mezcita

briany wrote: »

I think the EU position should grant another month's extension up to 22/05 and say to May "if you don't come back to us before this date with a way to decisively answer the question of the UK's membership, then you are out."

The 12th of April just isn't enough time, imo.

Disagree. The EU has to draw a line in the sand on this. Another one month extension would obviously be spun as a ''win'' via the UK press as a sign that the EU is about to buckle. Next thing you know we could be talking about a two year extension. All of a sudden you could potentially have more UK anti EU MEP's working in conjunction with their Italian and French counterparts to subvert the whole project. It's bad for the EU's long term interests.

I'm in the same boat as previous posters. The UK simply has to leave at this stage. Because only when the harsh realities of this decision are felt by people within the UK will they realise what exactly has happened. Living here for the last few years has simply made me realise that the UK is broken and they only way they can possibly begin to fix themselves is via an event which affects those people who have been blaming the EU for their national problems.

AlmightyCushion

briany wrote: »

I think the EU position should grant another month's extension up to 22/05 and say to May "if you don't come back to us before this date with a way to decisively answer the question of the UK's membership, then you are out."

The 12th of April just isn't enough time, imo.

They've had 2 years which is plenty of time. What will another month accomplish.

Anteayer

Deleted User wrote: »

I have way too much sympathy and respect for the decent British that marched last week to wish a hard Brexit on the UK.

It's sad to see it happening but it's looking increasingly inevitable. Most of us have friends and relatives in the UK or have great experiences of the more outward looking, positive, pragmatic parts of English society.

I mean we've screwed up and horrible mutual history but we're still neighbours and very interconnected at all sorts of levels, so it is painful to watch.

It's a country that's divided by a very toxic argument and unfortunately it's a mess that only they can resolve, however long that takes.

If a chaotic mess happens, I think you're looking at a hard road of serious economic consequences and political turmoil that could take a decade or more to get through. I'd hope though that a more positive England (and UK) eventually comes out the other side. It's a crisis of identity politics and unfortunately, those tend to be irrational and painful.

Also the only leaders I'm seeing emerging in the political arena who could bring the country back together again and way off having any power base yet. So it could be too late to save them from a crash out.

Peregrinus

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Before you get too excited I would just point out that these polls were carried out by Deltapoll.

Your point being? Is there evidence of a problem with Deltapoll (where "problem" does not include "somebody doesn't like their findings")?

Peregrinus

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Apparently Paris is increasingly hostile to the U.K.

But it’s the commission that will agree on extensions.

Nope, it's the Council. Unanimously. Art 50 requirement, so can't be finessed.

Role of the Commission is confined to providing advice and (probably) a recommendation.

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Euro problem could be sorted by the GB£ being hard pegged to the Euro, so the UK keeps the GB£ but it is really a Euro currency, which is how the Danish and Swedish Kroner work.

Sorry but the Swedish krona is a free floating currency and not pegged to the euro in any way. The SEK to EUR ratio for joining the euro is pegged at around 7 SEK to the euro (i.e. Sweden would need to show a stable exchange rate in that region for two years in case of joining the euro zone ala Lithuania etc went through) but currently trade around 10.4 SEK to the euro.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wouldn't be that pessimistic about EU elections. An awful lot of people seem more vocal about being pro EU at the moment in the UK. I get the sense that many Brexiteers have been put back in their box.

Plus, the Brexit forces are in some disarray. UKIP, which has the strongest Brexit brand, has suffered a huge exodus of party members with experience of running (and winning) campaigns, sitting on committees, standing on doorsteps, organising, etc. These have been replaced by a motley crew of conspiracy theorists, bigots, bullies and pound shop fascists who have no experience and probably no aptitude for running an election campaign. Plus, the party is all but bankrupt; the kitty's empty.

Some of the experienced Brexiters have migrated to the Tories, where they occupy themselves in intensifying the divisions in an already hopelessly divided party. This does not make for electoral success. Other will gravitate to Farage's new Brexit Party, but no way is that ready for an election, plus it has its own whiff of Islamophobia about it.

Brexiters vary between the angry and the demoralised. It remains to be seen whether anger will do more to promote Brexiter turnout than demoralisation does to reduce it but, however many turn out, I think the vote will be split three ways and, even with PR, this is not going to work out well for them.

Remainer voters are probably enthused; they sense a tide flowing with them. But the problem with them is who to vote for? Neither of the majors will adopt a Remain stance, or even a stance which strongly advocates a soft Brexit. The Lib Dems seem to be unable to hoover up the Remain vote in the way that logic would suggest they should, and however well the Greens do I can't see them going in the 2019 elections what UKIP did in the 2014 elections.

swampgas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wouldn't be that pessimistic about EU elections. An awful lot of people seem more vocal about being pro EU at the moment in the UK. I get the sense that many Brexiteers have been put back in their box.

Perhaps there are more pro EU voices being heard now, but the political system is still much the same. Most of the press is still driving the anti-EU agenda. The BBC is still failing miserably to hold the liars to account. The polls haven't moved very far since the referendum.

The PM is impervious to reason, won't change her approach and won't step down. The leader of the opposition seems to want a hard Brexit himself but simply won't admit it, and yet is still in place. His supporters seem to have a blind spot where the EU is concerned.

I don't see the UK political system as fixable in the short term. The fact that a new political party is emerging (TIG/Change UK) is IMO a good sign, but it's too little too late to deal with the fact that the UK has run out of time. Brexit simply cannot be avoided now.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Plus, the Brexit forces are in some disarray.
Remainer voters are probably enthused; they sense a tide flowing with them. But the problem with them is who to vote for? Neither of the majors will adopt a Remain stance, or even a stance which strongly advocates a soft Brexit.

But it is quite clear that the Tories are a much more Brexity party than Labour, who are all Common Market 2.0, CU and referendum talk in policy docs.