Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

listermint

Anteayer wrote: »

It's sad to see it happening but it's looking increasingly inevitable. Most of us have friends and relatives in the UK or have great experiences of the more outward looking, positive, pragmatic parts of English society.

I mean we've screwed up and horrible mutual history but we're still neighbours and very interconnected at all sorts of levels, so it is painful to watch.

It's a country that's divided by a very toxic argument and unfortunately it's a mess that only they can resolve, however long that takes.

If a chaotic mess happens, I think you're looking at a hard road of serious economic consequences and political turmoil that could take a decade or more to get through. I'd hope though that a more positive England (and UK) eventually comes out the other side. It's a crisis of identity politics and unfortunately, those tend to be irrational and painful.

Also the only leaders I'm seeing emerging in the political arena who could bring the country back together again and way off having any power base yet. So it could be too late to save them from a crash out.

I'd be on the otherside


I'm hopeful for a crash out and Scotland to finally break away. It has been England's ability to control the countries closest to it that allows it the retain this air of superiority. It's engrained in vast swathes of the populace. It's not minorities . Exceptionalism at its grimmest.

The UK needs a sharp dramatic shock to the system. It needs to know its place in the world and that it's had to be a deal maker and not a deal dictator

McGiver

Sam Russell wrote:

The Euro problem could be sorted by the GB£ being hard pegged to the Euro, so the UK keeps the GB£ but it is really a Euro currency, which is how the Danish and Swedish Kroner work.

Technical note.

DKK is pegged to the EUR via ERM II (prerequisite for EUR adoption), but doesn't progress to EUR adoption as Denmark have agreed an opt-out from this. However, DKK is a quasi Euro currency which translates into a very limited control over monetary policy available to the Danish government. It's basically Euro but looks more Danish.

SEK isn't pegged to the EUR, it's free floating, and that's because Sweden never entered ERM II. This is the only way how to avoid the adoption of the Euro in the absence of an opt-out, simply by not entering the ERM II. Euro adoption requires at least 2 year participation in the ERM II. Hence Swedish government has full control over monetary policy.

So I think you wanted to say that GBP could go the DKK route i.e. Nominally Keeping their currency but practically losing their monetary policy sovereignty by pegging it to the euro in very narrow range. This would satisfy the people who care about union Jack, pound sterling and imperial system though - they typically have no idea about economy or monetary policy. I think this would be somewhat similar to the Danish situation.

woohoo!!!

I've much more sympathy for Scotland and NI, whose wishes are being ignored. I've zero sympathy for the politics of it all, their system is rotten and broken. Too many safe seats. May is only interested in getting her way, to save the Tory party. It's clear that they need cross party consensus to salvage something and there's no guarantee a GE will solve anything. The EU will probably and reluctantly accept that for now the UK is a lost cause and it's certainly not their responsibility to help the Tories, the ones who caused and continue to cause the mess.

Fr Tod Umptious

listermint wrote: »

I'd be on the otherside


I'm hopeful for a crash out and Scotland to finally break away. It has been England's ability to control the countries closest to it that allows it the retain this air of superiority. It's engrained in vast swathes of the populace. It's not minorities . Exceptionalism at its grimmest.

The UK needs a sharp dramatic shock to the system. It needs to know its place in the world and that it's had to be a deal maker and not a deal dictator

A bit like NI just because Scotland had a majority Remain vote does not necessarily mean that they want to break form the UK.

And as hard as decoupling 40+ years of EU membership has been can you imagine the pain of trying to decouple 300+ years of The Act of Union.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote:

This. I'm of the same mind for a long time now. The best case scenario would be for all the hard Brexiteers and rightwing ideologues to be in government making decisions/having their bluff called each and every day. Force them to discredit themselves and the decades of anti-EU scapegoating propaganda of the British media and political class. Otherwise they will be on the outside bringing down everybody else à la Paisley for 40 years.

I'm not sure and there's one important aspect which I think the EU27 are surely aware of and hence do not fancy the UK crashing out.

I agree with all that has been said, but think about this: UK crashes out of the EU, the oligarch funded media continue to blame the EU, HMG continues to blame the EU, population becomes even more deluded and eurosceptic, they vote for/let Brexiteers running the show, they completely deintegrate UK from Europe, jobs are lost, unemployment rises, more working class people get angry, and shift further right, UK turns into quasi authoritarian country whilst corrupted Brexiteers dismantle the welfare state, privatise the NHS and all services and sign hugely disadvantageous FTA with the US. UK is turned into deregulated tax haven US vassal state controlled by US corporations.

Even if the shift to the authoritarian/hybrid system doesn't happen and UK just becomes a US vassal state, this is absolutely not something EU would welcome - I would say it would be an existential threat to it.

Tell me how

McGiver wrote: »

I'm not sure and there's one important aspect which I think the EU27 are surely aware of and hence do not fancy the UK crashing out.

I agree with all that has been said, but think about this: UK crashes out of the EU, the oligarch funded media continue to blame the EU, HMG continues to blame the EU, population becomes even more deluded and eurosceptic, they vote for/let Brexiteers running the show, they completely deintegrate UK from Europe, jobs are lost, unemployment rises, more working class people get angry, and shift further right, UK turns into quasi authoritarian country whilst corrupted Brexiteers dismantle the welfare state, privatise the NHS and all services and sign hugely disadvantageous FTA with the US. UK is turned into deregulated tax haven US vassal state controlled by US corporations.

Even if the shift to the authoritarian/hybrid system doesn't happen and UK just becomes a US vassal state, this is absolutely not something EU would welcome - I would say it would be an existential threat to it.

I too am fearful the impact a wounded UK will have once outside the EU.

They will be chief protagonists in supporting nationalist movements in other countries. The day after they leave, I expect them to greet any news if unrest in other EU countries with a claim that they too should leave and join the UK in a post-EU amalgamation of sorts.

If they leave, expect to see Farage et al at anti-EU demonstrations in several countries.

Akrasia

Strazdas wrote: »

People seem to be ignoring too that there's no guarantee of a long extension even if the UK request one. The EU might refuse the request in 12 days' time, especially if they think May or her government are acting in bad faith.

May opposed the holding of indicative votes and her government said they could ignore the results if they wanted. This was after the EU strongly advising the UK to come up with positive proposals for exiting the EU.

May is antagonising the EU 27 with every move she makes. Her political capital is in the red and her credit score is appalling. If there is a solution to this crisis, it won't come from Theresa May, it will come in spite of her

lawred2

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

A bit like NI just because Scotland had a majority Remain vote does not necessarily mean that they want to break form the UK.

And as hard as decoupling 40+ years of EU membership has been can you imagine the pain of trying to decouple 300+ years of The Act of Union.

Well they came bloody close only a few years ago during relative 'peace time'.. and now it has become even more clear to the Scots how little their voice matters in that toxic 'union'.

A pathway back into the cooperative EU will provide for a far better future for Scots than remaining in the self excluded UK.

Akrasia

lawred2 wrote: »

Well they came bloody close only a few years ago during relative 'peace time'.. and now it has become even more clear to the Scots how little their voice matters in that toxic 'union'.

A pathway back into the cooperative EU will provide for a far better future for Scots than remaining in the self excluded UK.

If NI vote to unify with the republic, its unlikely to just be them tacking themselves onto the existing republic. I think we would need to incorporate a new state with a new constitution. If Scotland leave their Union around the same time could we see somethink like a federation of celtic nations forming from 2 or 3 independent nations who share such close cultural and economic relations. All mad speculation but there could be lots of benefits and it could soften the transition for both Ireland and Scotland

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But it is quite clear that the Tories are a much more Brexity party than Labour, who are all Common Market 2.0, CU and referendum talk in policy docs.

Both the major parties are Brexit parties, the Tories merely tending - under the current junta, at any rate - to favour a harder Brexit. Neither is a comfortable home for a remainer.

Water John

It's the Council not the Commission that will grant or not any extension.
Id'be waiting until Monday to see a clearer picture. Sadly May probably won't pick up the ball, possibly offered to her by the HoC.

nice_guy80

I don't think we can afford to take NI

We've enough problems as it is

woohoo!!!

If we see some semblance of sanity taking shape in HoC, there may be a way forward the the EU27 can live with. But it'll still require May to commit to something different politically. The uncertainty is toxic.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Akrasia wrote: »

If NI vote to unify with the republic, its unlikely to just be them tacking themselves onto the existing republic. I think we would need to incorporate a new state with a new constitution. If Scotland leave their Union around the same time could we see somethink like a federation of celtic nations forming from 2 or 3 independent nations who share such close cultural and economic relations. All mad speculation but there could be lots of benefits and it could soften the transition for both Ireland and Scotland

You guys are really going over the top here. Unionism won’t go away. The cultural relations between Scotland and Ireland are fairly weak.

nice_guy80

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I don't think we can afford to take NI

Once the English can't afford to subsidise the remnant of its Irish colony by over €12 billion per annum (i.e. by much more than their net EU contribution), and make no mistake but financially and politically the English will be forced to sell their Pied Noirs in Ireland out, any costs of reunification will be significantly less than people are saying. We will have no English handout of note to replace. And strategically, an all-Ireland state in the EU would win financial support from the EU. The Catholic French and Spaniards would finally have the Elizabethans surrounded!

Call me Al

Akrasia wrote: »

If NI vote to unify with the republic, its unlikely to just be them tacking themselves onto the existing republic. I think we would need to incorporate a new state with a new constitution. If Scotland leave their Union around the same time could we see somethink like a federation of celtic nations forming from 2 or 3 independent nations who share such close cultural and economic relations. All mad speculation but there could be lots of benefits and it could soften the transition for both Ireland and Scotland

I think this would be a terrible idea. Bad enough getting "ownership" of 1 million head-the-balls (I know I know... it's an exaggeration) across the border, without adding in a further 2 million Scottish brexiteers pining for Queen and country.

mattser

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I don't think we can afford to take NI

We've enough problems as it is

We can't afford it for sure. Some of don't want it in any case.

Shelga

It sounds like it will come down to: will the EU be willing to let the UK crash out with no deal, rather than granting endless extensions that gradually damage the EU long-term.

If there was no deal, how long would it be truly terrible for the UK?

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Once the English can't afford to subsidise the remnant of its Irish colony by over €12 billion per annum (i.e. by much more than their net EU contribution), and make no mistake but financially and politically the English will be forced to sell their Pied Noirs in Ireland out, any costs of reunification will be significantly less than people are saying. We will have no English handout of note to replace. And strategically, an all-Ireland state in the EU would win financial support from the EU. The Catholic French and Spaniards would finally have the Elizabethans surrounded!

Because it solves, so profoundly, all the problems of the UK exiting for us in the EU, then I think we in the EU will take whatever steps that are necessary to make unity an economic success at least. As an investment in the stability of the bloc, it will be huge value for money.

Spook_ie

Shelga wrote: »

It sounds like it will come down to: will the EU be willing to let the UK crash out with no deal, rather than granting endless extensions that gradually damage the EU long-term.

If there was no deal, how long would it be truly terrible for the UK?

Well given all the talk on here about massive food and medicine shortages one could assume a much leaner and fitter UK emerging after 6-24 months, all we need on the doorstep a new super being with no fat bastards or dependent on drugs keeping them alive ( they would all have died only leaving the fit )

Purgative

The A50 petition just topped 6 million and the signatures have gone up to 52 a minute.


Probably wont do much but - it ain't over till its over - and I'd love to see Leadsom have to eat it.

Spook_ie

Purgative wrote: »

The A50 petition just topped 6 million and the signatures have gone up to 52 a minute.


Probably wont do much but - it ain't over till its over - and I'd love to see Leadsom have to eat it.

Well considering anyone can claim the right to sign it ( I just did ) I'd be taking it with a pinch of salt anyway.

Purgative

Spook_ie wrote: »

Well considering anyone can claim the right to sign it ( I just did ) I'd be taking it with a pinch of salt anyway.

We appreciate your support.

Spook_ie

Purgative wrote: »

The A50 petition just topped 6 million and the signatures have gone up to 52 a minute.


Probably wont do much but - it ain't over till its over - and I'd love to see Leadsom have to eat it.

Unlikely to reach the 6 million without thge Russians/Chinese/Americans but the poll rate for crashing out is matching the article 50 rate.

Spook_ie

Purgative wrote: »

We appreciate your support.

Just to keep it balanced I also voted in the leave on the 12th petition

Purgative

Spook_ie wrote: »

Just to keep it balanced I also voted in the leave on the 12th petition

While you're at it maybe sign the "Make netting hedgerows a criminal offence" petition.


That one might even do some good

Irishmale0399

Lads serious question here....reading a German paper and they seem to think it all up to the EU now, as:

1. TM had to get the WA through by Friday last week

2. Offer an alternative to the EU by Friday last week

Paper claims the chances the EU will allow the UK to crash out have increases dramatically since Friday......and are not sure the EU member states will accept ideas put in by the 12 April.

What is exactly true in this matter and what exactly did the EU tell them were the conditions for the 22 May extension or the 12 April end date.

FrancieBrady

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Lads serious question here....reading a German paper and they seem to think it all up to the EU now, as:

1. TM had to get the WA through by Friday last week

2. Offer an alternative to the EU by Friday last week

Paper claims the chances the EU will allow the UK to crash out have increases dramatically since Friday......and are not sure the EU member states will accept ideas put in by the 12 April.

What is exactly true in this matter and what exactly did the EU tell them were the conditions for the 22 May extension or the 12 April end date.

Are they quoting any sources for this?

briany

Spook_ie wrote: »

Well considering anyone can claim the right to sign it ( I just did ) I'd be taking it with a pinch of salt anyway.

UK government: "When we created that petition mechanism on the Parliament website, we didn't actually expect anyone to really use the bloody thing!"

Irishmale0399

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are they quoting any sources for this?

Very simple answer....No