Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Headshot

I cannot see the EU not providing some kind of extension. The EU does not want to be responsible to no deal brexit and I hope they provide a long extension.

FrancieBrady

Headshot wrote: »

I cannot see the EU not providing some kind of extension. The EU does not want to be responsible to no deal brexit and I hope they provide a long extension.

TBH at this stage I think a long extension will only succeed in doing more damage to the body politic in the UK.

They are in crisis and need shock therapy I think.

Irishmale0399

Headshot wrote: »

I cannot see the EU not providing some kind of extension. The EU does not want to be responsible to no deal brexit and I hope they provide a long extension.

The question here is

1. Do the EU want the UK in parliment possibly blocking things
2. Do/Are the UK want/ready to take part in EU elections

Capt'n Midnight

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I don't think we can afford to take NI

We've enough problems as it is

NI isn't getting better. The longer we delay the more it will cost socially and economically. The EU will help. It could cost as little as €5bn a year , cheap compared to the banking bailout.

The only difference between the economies since partition is whether it's Leinster House or Westminster making the big decisions. Before partition 90% of the manufacturing activity on the island took place in the North East. Now it's opposite.

Politically expect a backlash against the DUP when the Tories no longer need them.

As for Labour , they won't get any support from NI MP's in the foreseeable future so it's a total political liability. On the other side the SDLP took down Jim Callaghan's Labour government by abstaining from the vote of confidence. Old Labour died, Thatcher got in and the Tories ruled for 18 years. Manufacturing and mining was decimated and there was a kerfuffle over unions.




The situation there now isn't great, and this is with the DUP's billion pound bribe. Things will get worse when the Tories throw then under the bus and reverse it over them a few times.
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/ni-accounts-for-20-of-uk-foodbank-distribution-says-manager-1-8741763

20% of the total food bank meals across the UK were given out in Northern Ireland, according to figures from the Trussel Trust, a food bank trust based in Salisbury that operates across the UK.

...
His food bank has seen a 30% increase in demand on this time last year in a year.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

I cannot see the EU not providing some kind of extension. The EU does not want to be responsible to no deal brexit and I hope they provide a long extension.

Under no circumstances - none at all - can the European Union be deemed responsible for any of this entirely self-inflicted British stunt. So that scapegoating of the EU for this unequivocally British-created problem can be parked in the oligarch-owned British media.

If anything, the EU has been too accommodating of English jingoists' very public "We can't believe we're not a world power anymore" humiliation.

briany

I believe the EU would kick the UK off the cliff, if it weren't for the huge minority of UK citizens who did vote Remain, plus the regions who voted Remain in the majority. Plus the fact that there'll be a fallout for certain neighbouring countries. Plus a no-deal Brexit gives EU opponents in the UK even more stuff to poison the well with, making future trade negotiations that much more difficult.

When you look at all the potential fallout of a no-deal Brexit, be it political, or sociological, or economic, it's hard for me to say that it would be better than, say, 21 months more uncertainty.

Franz Von Peppercorn

briany wrote: »

UK government: "When we created that petition mechanism on the Parliament website, we didn't actually expect anyone to really use the bloody thing!"

All it does is force a parliamentary discussion. That’s happening anyway.

WomanSkirtFan8

FrancieBrady wrote: »

TBH at this stage I think a long extension will only succeed in doing more damage to the body politic in the UK.

They are in crisis and need shock therapy I think.

Ansolutely agreed. I think an extremely sharp, shock of reality is what they need right now as it's seems to be the only thing that will wake them up at this stage

Mr.Nice Guy

Footage from Grieve's assocation meeting where he was deselected.

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1112011627312934913

English political scene is in a very poor place right now and it will take at least a generation to overcome this. I can't see Scots wanting to be a part of this for much longer.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: When posting links, please endeavor to add an opinion in your own words. Posts deleted.

Headshot

FrancieBrady wrote: »

TBH at this stage I think a long extension will only succeed in doing more damage to the body politic in the UK.

They are in crisis and need shock therapy I think.

This shock would have a grave affect on Europe and especially Ireland. Why do we need to trigger the self destruct button?

Deleted User wrote: »

Under no circumstances - none at all - can the European Union be deemed responsible for any of this entirely self-inflicted British stunt. So that scapegoating of the EU for this unequivocally British-created problem can be parked in the oligarch-owned British media.

If anything, the EU has been too accommodating of English jingoists' very public "We can't believe we're not a world power anymore" humiliation.

Yes the British are the main architects of their downfall but if they go to Europe and ask for extension and we decline it, essentially we'll be blamed for a no deal Brexit which will do untold damage across Europe.

The EU have played a stormer in negotiations and I would hope when the British come back looking for an extension we let them have it on certain conditions like having a confirmation referendum etc

Mr.Nice Guy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Footage from Grieve's assocation meeting where he was deselected.

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1112011627312934913

English political scene is in a very poor place right now and it will take at least a generation to overcome this. I can't see Scots wanting to be a part of this for much longer.

That was ugly. I spent most of a day in the Topographie des Terrors museum in Berlin in the past year and the insidiousness and perniciousness of the rise of rightwing populists there was particularly unsettling in how they organised in mobs to undermine political and public meetings, demonising anybody who didn't subscribe to their new orthodoxy as a traitor of some form. No dissension.

Time for people to wake up to the historical magnitude of what's going on and be conscious of well-worn trends once this sort of thing starts. The 1930s are not long ago at all (both my parents were born then) and it is delusional in the extreme to think rightwing populists with anti-democratic tendencies cannot get into power again.

FrancieBrady

Headshot wrote: »

This shock would have a grave affect on Europe and especially Ireland. Why do we need to trigger the self destruct button?



Yes the British are the main architects of their downfall but if they go to Europe and ask for extension and we decline it, essentially we'll be blamed for a no deal Brexit which will do untold damage across Europe.

The EU have played a stormer in negotiations and I would hope when the British come back looking for an extension we let them have it on certain conditions like having a confirmation referendum etc

The EU is getting and will get the blame anyway in the UK. Look around you.

lawred2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Footage from Grieve's assocation meeting where he was deselected.

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1112011627312934913

English political scene is in a very poor place right now and it will take at least a generation to overcome this. I can't see Scots wanting to be a part of this for much longer.

That's very sad really. That's gutter level. Political party members acting like bar stool louts and bigots.

Conservatism at this stage has gone from fiscal responsibility and pro business all the way through to just basic racism.

Headshot

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The EU is getting and will get the blame anyway in the UK. Look around you.

From the polls Ive seen it's mainly the Government getting the blame. Just idiots like Farage trying to make the EU the Boogeyman but most people arent bitting

judeboy101

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Footage from Grieve's assocation meeting where he was deselected.

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1112011627312934913

English political scene is in a very poor place right now and it will take at least a generation to overcome this. I can't see Scots wanting to be a part of this for much longer.

He wasn't deselected that can only happen when there is a election coming , he failed in a vote of confidence.

Headshot

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Footage from Grieve's assocation meeting where he was deselected.

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1112011627312934913

English political scene is in a very poor place right now and it will take at least a generation to overcome this. I can't see Scots wanting to be a part of this for much longer.

It's an infestation of UKIP members poisoning the association. These people just want to watch the world to burn and will do everything in their power to get what they want.

These people don't see common sense and cannot work their heads around how a no Brexit deal will cause havoc for their economy.

FrancieBrady

Headshot wrote: »

From the polls Ive seen it's mainly the Government getting the blame. Just idiots like Farage trying to make the EU the Boogeyman but most people arent bitting

And the only people you need worry about are those who know what happened, and they won't be blaming the EU. Because anybody looking at what happened couldn't sensibly reach that conclusion.

RobMc59

I think the NHS charging foreigners before treatment is an absolute disgrace but it seems it's happening now in a hospital local to me.
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/royal-liverpool-doctors-slam-appalling-16045648

Franz Von Peppercorn

Headshot wrote: »

It's an infestation of UKIP members poisoning the association. These people just want to watch the world to burn and will do everything in their power to get what they want.

These people don't see common sense and cannot work their heads around how a no Brexit deal will cause havoc for their economy.

The idea that Brexit is popular only in UKIP or ex UKIP membership is unfounded. It’s half the population and most Tory voters. And the membership of the Conservative party (a tiny fraction of the voters for that party) are even more radical.

20silkcut

Headshot wrote: »

I cannot see the EU not providing some kind of extension. The EU does not want to be responsible to no deal brexit and I hope they provide a long extension.

But are the EU 26( minus Ireland) getting close to the stage where no deal is better than endless extensions.
Obviously for us anything other than no deal is preferable.
The EU is seriously side tracked by brexit it is consuming all oxygen, I can see patience wearing thin very soon.

Calina

20silkcut wrote: »

But are the EU 26( minus Ireland) getting close to the stage where no deal is better than endless extensions.
Obviously for us anything other than no deal is preferable.
The EU is seriously side tracked by brexit it is consuming all oxygen, I can see patience wearing thin very soon.

There is no such thing as EU26. Ireland is not facilitated by constant extensions either so the only people you serve by suggesting there is a wedge to be driven between Ireland and the other 26 members are the hard Brexiters. It is precisely what they want to achieve - the peeling off off countries they perceive to be expendable. Hence Patel's comments about starving Ireland and general ministerual comments based on the idea that the EU would hang Ireland out to dry. The decision to send hard Brexit supporting Tories to persuade Italy and Poland to vote against any extension.

The objective as such is not Brexit but the dismantling of the EU.

Ireland's interests are served by EU membership and not casting in its lot with English nationalism. As far as Brexit is concerned, its interests are a) no Brexit b) managed Brexit and c) staying in the EU and in relative harmony with other members even in the face of vandalism by the UK. As such any idea or narrative of EU26 excluding Ireland is damaging and not in Ireland's interests regardless of what the basketcase directly to the east of us does in the short term.

There continues to be a narrative in the UK that they can stay and reform the EU from within. They still clearly don't get the meaning of shared sovereignty and collaborative effort and the benefits of consensus building. It is all about the UK's desires. The concept of give a little take a little just doesn't exist. Until they lose the ego, nothing is going to change or improve.

None of that might happen but to be honest they lack political leadership by any measure on both sides of the ideological divide.

The UK is overwhelmed by Brexit and is not coping. Within the EU it is sucking effort, yes but BAU is carrying on. To any great extent, the EU delegated the execution of Brexit to Barnier and carried on with their other priorities. It has not sucked all oxygen from the EU.

Shelga

20silkcut wrote: »

But are the EU 26( minus Ireland) getting close to the stage where no deal is better than endless extensions.
Obviously for us anything other than no deal is preferable.
The EU is seriously side tracked by brexit it is consuming all oxygen, I can see patience wearing thin very soon.

It's hard to know what way they are leaning. Tusk seems to have genuine compassion and concern for the people who voted Remain (and for the Leavers who were lied to, to be fair).

But constant extensions, and having the risk of 70 UKIP-esque candidates contest the elections, is a real worry. Sharp shock could be for the best, long-term now.

As usual, the media in the UK is ignoring the fact that they are completely at the mercy of whatever the EU council decides, and acting like a long extension is inevitable, just because they have decided that's what they want. But the same questions remain. They can't agree on any other course of action. If there is still no majority for anything after more indicative votes next week, surely the probability of a no-deal exit is extremely high by that point.

WomanSkirtFan8

lawred2 wrote: »

That's very sad really. That's gutter level. Political party members acting like bar stool louts and bigots.

Conservatism at this stage has gone from fiscal responsibility and pro business all the way through to just basic racism.

ouch that was painful to watch. There is one of the main causes of this whole shambolic saga too many Brits believing or willing to Believe the lies of their own media. Disgraceful and despicable behaviour and downright delusional.

Spook_ie

lawred2 wrote: »

That's very sad really. That's gutter level. Political party members acting like bar stool louts and bigots.

Conservatism at this stage has gone from fiscal responsibility and pro business all the way through to just basic racism.

Dunno his voting record on allowing EU nationals to remain is suspect enough

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10243/dominic_grieve/beaconsfield/divisions?policy=6764

trashcan

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

ouch that was painful to watch. There is one of the main causes of this whole shambolic saga too many Brits believing or willing to Believe the lies of their own media. Disgraceful and despicable behaviour and downright delusional.

Kind of ironic, given their obsession with WW2 that so many of them now are beginning to show Nazi tendancies. As Billy Bragg once wrote " They salute the foes their fathers fought by waving their right arms in the air."

I'm kind of coming round to the view of kick them out too.

marno21

trashcan wrote: »

I'm kind of coming round to the view of kick them out too.

I think a lot of people would be of this view only for the collateral damage it would cause to NI and to a lesser extent Scotland.

Too many people there having to suffer as a result of blind ideological English nationalism

Water John

A Soft Brexit (CU) along with a confirmatory Ref would tick the boxes for the various wings of the Lb Party. I think it would be the best possible for us and the EU too, in the circumstances. Leadsom & Co would have a melt down.
Might have to have a GE first.

Farmer

You'd imagine that a good chairman wouldn't tolerate that kind of carry on

An Ciarraioch

More info from yesterday's Mail on Sunday opinion poll - the Brexit Party are on 6%:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1112361038870179841