Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

It's also not nice to sacrifice the 16 million who support EU membership. But under no circumstances can the EU accept a "you can have your cake and eat it" approach just because so many people are in favour of EU membership. The EU is right to step very far back and let the British sort out their own understanding of history/their place in the world today. The English made their myths; they alone will have to face up to their consequences today.

Of course, like all rightwing populist movements the Brexiteers need their scapegoats so the Europhobes will still successfully blame the EU for everything - but the history books will be merciless about how that society allowed things to get this bad. A member of parliament has already been murdered for her beliefs, and that didn't even give pause for thought. The rhetoric, everything: extremism and scaoegoating is the new normal (very, very many of their newspaper headlines would make Goebbels happy).

Remember, too, that while Britain refused to join the ECSC/EEC in the early 1950s, once it realised what a failure EFTA had been for Britain, it came back cap in hand looking to join the EEC. Loads of really, really poor political miscalculations in Britain's relationship with the EU - most of which is tied up in a popular addiction to an imperial/world power status that is no more. They have been fed so many lies that to face up to reality is to take on their very sense of identity. Far easier to keep the lie/scapegoat going and make it as big as possible to justify everything.

Who will be the Sophie Scholl of Britain?

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

More info from yesterday's Mail on Sunday opinion poll - the Brexit Party are on 6%:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1112361038870179841

Seems to me that the problem for the Conservatives is that Cameron only made the referendum a manifesto pledge to head off UKIP taking votes from the Tories. They then lurched further right after the result but seeing that there are still sensible politicians in charge they didn't press the button to implode.

But their problem is that UKIP lurched further right and the moderates from UKIP have formed their own party. This seems to indicate that the Tories will lose the most and this is now played out in the polls. Just wait until they have to start discussing manifestos and the Tories have to stand behind their handling of the NHS, Education, Justice and see their vote disappear.

Water John

People only take squeezing economically and socially for so long. Austerity in a short sharp dose to right an economy is tolerable, but after a while they need hope on the horizon. The Tories have used it as a standard platform at this point, but people haven't made the link, it's a Tory choice.

20silkcut

Calina wrote: »

There is no such thing as EU26. Ireland is not facilitated by constant extensions either so the only people you serve by suggesting there is a wedge to be driven between Ireland and the other 26 members are the hard Brexiters. It is precisely what they want to achieve - the peeling off off countries they perceive to be expendable. Hence Patel's comments about starving Ireland and general ministerual comments based on the idea that the EU would hang Ireland out to dry. The decision to send hard Brexit supporting Tories to persuade Italy and Poland to vote against any extension.

The objective as such is not Brexit but the dismantling of the EU.

Ireland's interests are served by EU membership and not casting in its lot with English nationalism. As far as Brexit is concerned, its interests are a) no Brexit b) managed Brexit and c) staying in the EU and in relative harmony with other members even in the face of vandalism by the UK. As such any idea or narrative of EU26 excluding Ireland is damaging and not in Ireland's interests regardless of what the basketcase directly to the east of us does in the short term.

There continues to be a narrative in the UK that they can stay and reform the EU from within. They still clearly don't get the meaning of shared sovereignty and collaborative effort and the benefits of consensus building. It is all about the UK's desires. The concept of give a little take a little just doesn't exist. Until they lose the ego, nothing is going to change or improve.

None of that might happen but to be honest they lack political leadership by any measure on both sides of the ideological divide.

The UK is overwhelmed by Brexit and is not coping. Within the EU it is sucking effort, yes but BAU is carrying on. To any great extent, the EU delegated the execution of Brexit to Barnier and carried on with their other priorities. It has not sucked all oxygen from the EU.

There are two realities that are uncomfortable in my opinion.
It looks like the EU will want us to protect the single market by installing a hard border.

Let’s not call them the EU 26 but the rest of the EU will not be as badly affected by a no deal scenario as ourselves.
I know we are all united but that is a reality. Those tariffs on Irish beef and Agri food are a desperate reality almost unique to Ireland. I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

Water John

Don't mind the rhetoric as long as Tusk wins out. The UK must turn up with some plan, at least an effort at one. Don't see Bercow allowing them to put another variation for a vote.

Farmer

20silkcut wrote: »

..... I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

Might be easier for them too. Ivan Rogers on a no deal Brexit. Trade has to be sorted out eventually

https://mobile.twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1112345990865059840


Edit Sorry, second video on page. I cant link to it directly somehow

lawred2

Spook_ie wrote: »

Dunno his voting record on allowing EU nationals to remain is suspect enough

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10243/dominic_grieve/beaconsfield/divisions?policy=6764

And yet that still wasn't quite enough

Scoondal

Good Friday agreement is reccognised internationally. UK cannot do anything that will affect that. GB can leave EU but NI is always subject to Good Friday Agreement. We voted for this, NI and ROI. UK cannot break their international agreement.

Enzokk

This is interesting and a little ironic.

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1111915972632420353

So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

VinLieger

Scoondal wrote: »

Good Friday agreement is reccognised internationally. UK cannot do anything that will affect that. GB can leave EU but NI is always subject to Good Friday Agreement. We voted for this, NI and ROI. UK cannot break their international agreement.

The absolutely can if they really wanted to, ever heard the phrase perfidious albion?

WomanSkirtFan8

trashcan wrote: »

Kind of ironic, given their obsession with WW2 that so many of them now are beginning to show Nazi tendancies. As Billy Bragg once wrote " They salute the foes their fathers fought by waving their right arms in the air."

I'm kind of coming round to the view of kick them out too.

Yeah the irony is unbelievable alright. They deserve to be thrown out of the EU at this rate

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

They can take it from the NHS, I think I saw that on a red bus one time.

Mr.Nice Guy

I thought this was interesting. Emma DeSouza who campaigns on citizenship rights in NI on the UK government making changes that could affect the GFA.

https://twitter.com/EmmandJDeSouza/status/1112320347515375616

She also says it means Irish citizens north of the border will have to denounce British citizenship to keep their EU citizenship.

Wouldn't this serve to drive more people, including some unionists with dual nationality, towards supporting Irish unity?

Can't imagine even the DUP would want this if this is accurate.

Jim2007

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

She also says it means Irish citizens north of the border will have to denounce British citizenship to keep their EU citizenship.

Wouldn't this serve to drive more people, including some unionists with dual nationality, towards supporting Irish unity?

Can't imagine even the DUP would want this if this is accurate.

This is rambling nonsense. There is no such thing as an EEA citizen to start with. And the rest is just standard treatment for dual citizens in all European countries.

Also if you pop along to the DFA website you will find two forms - one to revoke Irish citizenship and the other to retrieve it. Specially designed to deal with these kind of situation - file revoke on day one, get acknowledgment for DFA to show anyone that needs to know and the following day file the retrieval... It has been used for years by Irish people in countries that don't allow dual citizenship

CrabRevolution

I'm not quite convinced either. I can't imagine it's within the UK's power to define an EEA citizen, whether they're based in the UK or not.

Headshot

Farmer wrote: »

Might be easier for them too. Ivan Rogers on a no deal Brexit. Trade has to be sorted out eventually

https://mobile.twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1112345990865059840


Edit Sorry, second video on page. I cant link to it directly somehow

I watched the whole video, it was a very interesting watch, I felt the 1hr plus passed in no time.

brickster69

Enzokk wrote: »

This is interesting and a little ironic.

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1111915972632420353

So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

And EU GDP is 75% less now than in 2017. What does that equate to per week?

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

Chris Johns has long been writing the most caustic and acerbic articles about how insane Brexit is.

I just read yesterday's one, which has been the most-read story on The Irish Times this weekend, and he's warning strongly about the unintended consequences of all these developments and how people who think things are secure stoke up real resentments and all of society's existing stability is undermined. He's definitely on to something here.

... The chances of a cliff-edge departure next week are high. It looks like a 50-50 call to me. Amid all of the noise of last week, not enough attention was focused on the fact that 160 British MPs voted for a no-deal Brexit.
That’s a quarter of Britain’s elected representatives actively seeking all of the chaos that would accompany such a rupture with the EU.

At best, it represents a simple misjudgment. At worst, it looks like an embrace of revolution – if not anarchy – so that hidden agendas can subsequently be revealed. The scary fact is that these wannabe revolutionaries could well succeed.

The short term is unpredictable but the longer term outlook is reasonably clear. Whichever way Brexit goes, the divisions in British society and culture are not going to be quickly healed....

Not all Leave voters were fascists or extremists of any kind but it is pretty clear that all of Britain’s fascists did vote for Brexit.

These kinds of fissures, once opened up, take a long time to close and often lead to a crisis of one kind or another.

The great financial crisis is sometimes described as a “Minsky moment”, named after the great economist who warned that long periods of economic stability often prompt and conceal ever-increasing risky behaviours.

People feel more comfortable taking ever bigger risks because of that stability. That risk-taking can pass a point when crisis becomes inevitable: the system becomes too fragile; vulnerable to the smallest shocks.

Maybe it’s the same with political stability. People feel comfortable taking ever extreme views because the consequences of doing so are not obvious, at least for a while. As things remain superficially stable, extremists become ever more emboldened.

Today, with the added amplification of social media, Britain feels more extremist than I can personally recall. On this line of thinking, people won’t retreat from their deeply held positions until a crisis forces them to do so.

Chris Johns: Has Brexit broken Britain irreparably?

fly_agaric

20silkcut wrote: »

There are two realities that are uncomfortable in my opinion.
It looks like the EU will want us to protect the single market by installing a hard border.

Let’s not call them the EU 26 but the rest of the EU will not be as badly affected by a no deal scenario as ourselves.
I know we are all united but that is a reality. Those tariffs on Irish beef and Agri food are a desperate reality almost unique to Ireland. I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

There was (I thought) a good article on how it could play out (as regards resolving conflict of protecting the single market in a crash out Brexit while trying to retain an open border with NI) here:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/
(probably someone already posted it)

Our lot are really very good at putting off doing anything about a political problem until tomorrow (which may never come, in Ireland it often doesn't) so would likely accept any old bollox reason put forward for an extension by the UK. So long as it delays the evil day (Brexit), they will be happy even if there is no political resolution in the UK. The rest of the EU might not agree with that and have other priorities causing them to reject certain types or maybe even all types of requests for another extension.

However if most of the other countries in the EU (that care about Brexit) just want to end it now I think Irish political capital in the EU/council of ministers would be much better used trying to get their support/help dealing with the problems than trying to fight them over it to "save" the UK (current govt. of which does not give a crap about what happens to us [or NI] after Brexit anyway).

Enzokk

brickster69 wrote: »

And EU GDP is 75% less now than in 2017. What does that equate to per week?

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

So the answer is to shout out loud and divert attention? Ok, show me where the EU stated on a bus (or a billboard or anything) a projection of how a course of action that they voted for in 2017 would not lead to the 75% less GDP growth and I will play your game of whataboutery.

ThePanjandrum

Deleted User wrote: »

Chris Johns has long been writing the most caustic and acerbic articles about how insane Brexit is.

I just read yesterday's one, which has been the most-read story on The Irish Times this weekend, and he's warning strongly about the unintended consequences of all these developments and how people who think things are secure stoke up real resentments and all of society's existing stability is undermined. He's definitely on to something here.




Chris Johns: Has Brexit broken Britain irreparably?

All of the rhetoric breaks down on the fact that Britain's Fascists supported the Common Market and EU. Oswald Mosley campaigned for it. Facts are so inconvenient, aren't they?

ThePanjandrum

fly_agaric wrote: »

However if most of the other countries in the EU (that care about Brexit) just want to end it now I think Irish political capital in the EU/council of ministers would be much better used trying to get their support/help dealing with the problems than trying to fight them over it to "save" the UK (current govt. of which does not give a crap about what happens to us [or NI] after Brexit anyway).

I'm mystified why you think that the UK should care about your well-being while almost everyone here has been saying that you don't care about the UK's. Perhaps you could explain your reasoning.

RobMc59

20silkcut wrote: »

There are two realities that are uncomfortable in my opinion.
It looks like the EU will want us to protect the single market by installing a hard border.

Let’s not call them the EU 26 but the rest of the EU will not be as badly affected by a no deal scenario as ourselves.
I know we are all united but that is a reality. Those tariffs on Irish beef and Agri food are a desperate reality almost unique to Ireland. I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

You are right to be concerned if this article in the Irish times is anything to go by-a soft brexit,(if there has to be a brexit!)would be better for everyone.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/disorderly-brexit-could-cause-loss-of-80-000-irish-jobs-report-warns-1.3838322

Seth Brundle

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I'm mystified why you think that the UK should care about your well-being while almost everyone here has been saying that you don't care about the UK's. Perhaps you could explain your reasoning.

Who here has said this?

fly_agaric

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I'm mystified why you think that the UK should care about your well-being while almost everyone here has been saying that you don't care about the UK's. Perhaps you could explain your reasoning.

I can't answer for what "everyone here" has been saying (don't even know as I don't read every post), only for myself. The people here are not the Irish govt. anyway. For myself I don't wish any ill will to the UK. Am certain the Irish govt. doesn't either. As above they will probably be the ones most in favour of extensions if more are sought by the UK whatever the reasons, and whatever the extent of potential damage to the EU that could do after the next European parliament elections.

Since we (UK/Ireland) are neighbours and share a border, have a lot of connections and are both (for moment) members of the EU I had expected some consideration from the UK alright about how they pursue their Brexit idea might affect us - as have said before I was very badly wrong there.

Anyway, a "hard" Brexit seems to be coming soon whatever we think. I suppose it is less satisfying [for a Brexit supporter] if it finally comes about (almost) by accident through a series of procedural muck ups and a mess of political infighting than by Theresa May or another great conservative totem telling the EU exactly where to go!

RobMc59

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Who here has said this?

Nobody actually comes out and says it but if you express any opinion in support of the UK you are ostacized-like me.

Farmer

Enzokk wrote: »

...
So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

Not to mention future losses like the £13 Billion p.a.for form filling and administration that Dominic Grieve was trying to tell them about before they shouted him down.

I'm sure there would be much more in lost efficiency.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Nobody actually comes out and says it but if you express any opinion in support of the UK you are ostasized-like me.

All I have seen are people who support the UK on the basis of unsupportable points, being 'ostrasised'

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

All of the rhetoric breaks down on the fact that Britain's Fascists supported the Common Market and EU. Oswald Mosley campaigned for it. Facts are so inconvenient, aren't they?

British Euroscepticism has always been a very peculiar beast. Most far right parties on the continent are not actually opposed to the EU or a European identity (they're far more interested in being anti-non EU immigration and anti-Islam).

The British far right these days are quite unique in being anti-EU, anti freedom of movement for European citizens and anti-the idea of a 'European identity'.

sandbelter

20silkcut wrote: »

Those tariffs on Irish beef and Agri food are a desperate reality almost unique to Ireland. I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

This isn't anything that NZ and Australia didn't face in 1973 and they coped by directing their focus on Asia. Ireland will, with adjustment, cope and do the same, Chinese imports of beef are forecast to grow by 24% by 2022 and the Chinese will pay premiums for imported beef.

Moving out of the UK's orbit is also an opportunity.