Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All I have seen are people who support the UK on the basis of unsupportable points, being 'ostrasised'

I'm not referring to brexit which is totally undefenceable-different points of view if presented in a reasonable manner are good in any discussion-thats not a bad thing-is it?

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm not referring to brexit which is totally undefenceable-different points of view if presented in a reasonable manner are good in any discussion-thats not a bad thing-is it?

There are many points of view on this thread. I don't see them being treated unreasonably. It is when someone comes in trying to support either side of the argument without presenting fact that it gets fractious.

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

This is interesting and a little ironic.

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1111915972632420353

So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

The Bank of England reckons it's £800m a week , £40 Bn a year.

GDP down 2% a year, and a no-deal would mean emergency interest rate hikes.
Tax year ends in a few days.
Rates 4.5% and energy bills are going up.

Austerity isn't over.

An Ciarraioch

Tomorrow's Telegraph claims 10 UK ministers favour a customs union, 13 want a no-deal Brexit, and four are undecided - so whichever way May jumps, the government will literally be split down the middle - GE the only way to maintain unity?

http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1112457769825849344

Spanish Eyes

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The Bank of England reckons it's £800m a week , £40 Bn a year.

GDP down 2% a year, and a no-deal would mean emergency interest rate hikes.
Tax year ends in a few days.
Rates 4.5% and energy bills are going up.

Austerity isn't over.

Unfortunately anything that is not reported in the Telegraph or Express etc. is dismissed now as fake news.

So the Guardian is off limits for the Brexiteers. Fingers in ears and la la la.

Headshot

What time are the indicative votes tomorrow?

An Ciarraioch

Headshot wrote: »

What time are the indicative votes tomorrow?

Usually 7, but stand to be corrected!

Zubeneschamali

fly_agaric wrote: »

For myself I don't wish any ill will to the UK.

I have seen many posters saying that they think the best outcome would be a hard Brexit which really hurts the UK.

Personally, I do not agree with them, I hope we see no Brexit at all.

But every single poster I have seen wish a Hard Brexit and all the associated unpleasant consequences on Britain has wished it as a teaching moment, a short, sharp shock which teaches people in the UK the real truth.

Because we don't wish ill on the UK, we wish common sense.

Zubeneschamali

RobMc59 wrote: »

Nobody actually comes out and says it but if you express any opinion in support of the UK you are ostacized-like me.

I support the UK.

I don't support Brexit. Nor do most people in the UK.

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tomorrow's Telegraph claims 10 UK ministers favour a customs union, 13 want a no-deal Brexit

Ordinarily, you could dismiss this sort of number as nonsense, 13 want to flap their arms and fly to the moon, can't happen so can say any old thing.

But right now, this is extraordinary. No Deal brexit could happen within a month. 13 of the ministers of Her Majesty's Government want to cripple the United Kingdom for no damned reason at all.

Amazing.

trashcan

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I have seen many posters saying that they think the best outcome would be a hard Brexit which really hurts the UK.


Personally, I do not agree with them, I hope we see no Brexit at all.


But every single poster I have seen wish a Hard Brexit and all the associated unpleasant consequences on Britain has wished it as a teaching moment, a short, sharp shock which teaches people in the UK the real truth.


Because we don't wish ill on the UK, we wish common sense.

I said earlier that I was coming round to the view that Europe should pull the plug. My only reason for saying so is that there seems to be a lot of people over there who are determined not to see sense. I have nothing but sympathy for ordinary British people, who are the ones who will suffer at the end of the day. Of course it would be preferable all round if they cancelled the whole thing, or at least stay in the Single Market/ Cusoms Union. The problem with that is if it happens then it's a recipie for ongoing trouble. There will be massive unrest from the leavers if it's taken away from them now, and you could see the likes of Farage, Mogg, etc, whipping things up into a frenzy, aided and abetted by the gutter press. It may be that the only way to bring enough people to their senses is to crash out. Of course in many ways it will be too late then.

Inquitus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ordinarily, you could dismiss this sort of number as nonsense, 13 want to flap their arms and fly to the moon, can't happen so can say any old thing.

But right now, this is extraordinary. No Deal brexit could happen within a month. 13 of the ministers of Her Majesty's Government want to cripple the United Kingdom for no damned reason at all.

Amazing.

It's what you get with a lame duck PM, and the 124k headcases who are the members of the Tory party who will pick the next Tory leader and perhaps PM, once the Parliamentary party whittles it down to 2 candidates. These Cabinet members are playing to that audience. Much like Labour a minority of Brits, and in the case of the Tories a much smaller minority, wield a ridiculous amount of power when selecting both Tory Leader and those who stand for MP in the various constituencies.

Just look at the 300 odd who voted no confidence in Grieves, crazy stuff.

dresden8

If Boris manages to hang on into the last two the membership will vote for him.

A well known liar, incompetent, charlatan and spoofer of a fraud and the Tories love him.

Don't see the EU bothering to negotiate with him for the next several years.

ThePanjandrum

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

All of the rhetoric breaks down on the fact that Britain's Fascists supported the Common Market and EU. Oswald Mosley campaigned for it. Facts are so inconvenient, aren't they?

Actually, the vast majority and especially the younger fascists did not. They rejected Mosley on this issue and created the League of Empire Loyalists under AK Chesterton in 1954 to campaign against the breakup of the British Empire. When it was dissolved in 1967 Chesterton used the remaining money to set up the British National Front, which still exists today, self-describes as fascist, racist and Europhobic - and harks back to the glories of Empire. So, speaking of "inconvenient facts" there's your true Brexiteer political genealogy.

League of Empire Loyalists

Zubeneschamali

Inquitus wrote: »

a minority of Brits, and in the case of the Tories a much smaller minority, wield a ridiculous amount of power when selecting both Tory Leader and those who stand for MP in the various constituencies.

I am not talking about MPs or the Tory leader.

I am talking about Ministers of Her Majesty's Government, who should know which way is up.

Yet per the story, 13 of them want the UK to shoot itself in the gut.

ancapailldorcha

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I'm mystified why you think that the UK should care about your well-being while almost everyone here has been saying that you don't care about the UK's. Perhaps you could explain your reasoning.

Caring about the UK's well-being means opposing Brexit. It's clearer now than ever.

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

Actually, the vast majority and especially the younger fascists did not. They rejected Mosley on this issue and created the League of Empire Loyalists under AK Chesterton in 1954 to campaign against the breakup of the British Empire. When it was dissolved in 1967 Chesterton used the remaining money to set up the British National Front, which still exists today, self-describes as fascist, racist, Europhobi c and harks back to the glories of Empire. So speaking of "inconvenient facts" there's your true political genealogy.

League of Empire Loyalists

Perhaps he should have said facts are so convenient when you make them up to support your argument...

WhiteMan32

Yesterday, the Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU petition passed 6 millions signatures. Below is a graphic showing how various Brexit-related motions and amendments were voted upon by the MP for the constituency with the highest number of signatures vs. the MP for the constituency with the lowest number of signatures: -

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tomorrow's Telegraph claims 10 UK ministers favour a customs union, 13 want a no-deal Brexit, and four are undecided - so whichever way May jumps, the government will literally be split down the middle - GE the only way to maintain unity?

twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1112457769825849344

They have until April 12 to come up with a plan the EU will accept or it's Hard Brexit.

How about a GE on the same day as the EU elections to take the focus off them ? , because that's cynical enough.


But to get a GE they'd need 66% of the MP's on board.

Labour will want this, but there'll many others who won't whether to keep their seats or to put May in an even worse position or because it might let Labour win or because it would mean the end of their type of Brexit or whatever you're having yourself.

Or Labour might do a Lucy when Charlie Brown comes to kick the football. Especially if it looks like they might not win an election.


Expect May to go through more self inflicted humiliation which whichever way this goes.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ordinarily, you could dismiss this sort of number as nonsense, 13 want to flap their arms and fly to the moon, can't happen so can say any old thing.

But right now, this is extraordinary. No Deal brexit could happen within a month. 13 of the ministers of Her Majesty's Government want to cripple the United Kingdom for no damned reason at all.

Amazing.

Several of whom voted Remain (!) (incl. Hunt & Javid)

Gives an indication I suppose of the somewhat unusual relationship between the UK and EU

bob mcbob

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ordinarily, you could dismiss this sort of number as nonsense, 13 want to flap their arms and fly to the moon, can't happen so can say any old thing.

But right now, this is extraordinary. No Deal brexit could happen within a month. 13 of the ministers of Her Majesty's Government want to cripple the United Kingdom for no damned reason at all.

Amazing.

The leadership of the Tory party is coming up soon and the one who wins needs to get the vote of the Tory party membership - who are on average, right wing english white males in their seventies. That is the current Tory party.

All of this is a game of chicken to pander to the membership, i.e. who is the toughest on the EU.

If no deal did actually happen - there would not be a Conservative party or a United Kingdom left.

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

They have until April 12 to come up with a plan the EU will accept or it's Hard Brexit.

How about a GE on the same day as the EU elections to take the focus off them ? , because that's cynical enough.


But to get a GE they'd need 66% of the MP's on board.

Labour will want this, but there'll many others who won't whether to keep their seats or to put May in an even worse position or because it might let Labour win or because it would mean the end of their type of Brexit or whatever you're having yourself.

Or Labour might do a Lucy when Charlie Brown comes to kick the football. Especially if it looks like they might not win an election.


Expect May to go through more self inflicted humiliation which whichever way this goes.

May received a letter two days ago signed by 170 Tory MPs demanding that Brexit happens asap and that there be no long extension and no EU elections in Britain. Which means that 160 Tory MPs didn't sign the letter. Fun times ahead for Tory party unity.

Spook_ie

Now here's an odd thing, all this talk of revoke article 50 petitions, yet NI is one of the least represented regions percentage wise.

https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584

briany

Headshot wrote: »

This shock would have a grave affect on Europe and especially Ireland. Why do we need to trigger the self destruct button?



Yes the British are the main architects of their downfall but if they go to Europe and ask for extension and we decline it, essentially we'll be blamed for a no deal Brexit which will do untold damage across Europe.

The EU have played a stormer in negotiations and I would hope when the British come back looking for an extension we let them have it on certain conditions like having a confirmation referendum etc

I agree. The EU should inform the UK that they have already used their first extension unwisely. It has produced no significant movement toward a conclusion. The EU wants a decision.

I think the EU should offer a two-phase extension. The first phrase would be up to the 22nd of May. This would be under two conditions - that the UK agrees to come back with a definitive plan by that date, and that they prepare for EU elections. If they fail to meet either of these conditions, they are out. If they meet them, they get one or two years during which they are under constant review by the EU to makes sure the obligations are being met.

AllForIt

Calina wrote: »

There is no way the UK population who voted in favour of EU exit understood the practical realities of leaving. They did not know that three years down the line they would be talking about stockpiling medicines or dealing with food shortages. They did not know or want to accept customs checks would turn Kent into a giant lorry park. They did not know or want to accept that the long term impact would be to lose manufacturing jobs in key industries over time. They did not see chunks of their main sources of taxes, ie the financial services industry would move to other EU states.

They may have wanted a fresh start but no one mentioned the sacrifices. I am not surprised Brexit won at the time but their media and their politicians brought that about.

I guarantee you if the Brexit campaigners had talked about medecine and food shortages as a necessary part of the sacrifice at the time, Brexit would not have won.

Emotive but wrong.

Of course the general UK public weren't able to articulate every nook and cranny about what it means on a practical level to leave the EU, but they did know there would be consequences, economic ones etc.

They on balance even not knowing the full implications voted to leave and accepted the implications even unknown for what they wanted.

How can anyone know the full implications. Even the politicians don't and argue these things to death every day.

I don't believe for a second that if there was a second ref that the result would be any different. I think you may get an even higher turnout but I think the result would be the same.

I am not arguing for Brexit. It is a mistake imo. What I have a problem with is the arguments ppl make about the ppl who voted to leave.

If the British ppl would prefer to make their own laws that aren't influenced by being part of the EU, I think that's a perfectly valid position to take. So I don't think those that voted to leave were completely unaware of the negative consequence of doing so, but thought on balance that it is what they would prefer and any problems they might experience as a result of leaving could be sorted out in time.

Infini

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Caring about the UK's well-being means opposing Brexit. It's clearer now than ever.

Unfortunately the way thing's are going right now a no deal car crash Brexit might end up happening simply because those in charge are essentially incompetent fools and waster's with no interest beyond vainglorious delusions or selfish self interest.

The bitter irony is that if a hard brexit were to happen and Britain ends up crippled over it that hard reality despite every warning and chance given that once people start hurting that they stop putting up with these idiot's shouting the EU is evil etc and actually tell them to cut the BS as they're wrong and quite simply should not be given airtime or listened to. They're in the same league as anti-vaxxers: utterly devoid of any semblance of reality and absorbed in delusional conspiracies and lies.

AngryHippie

AllForIt wrote: »

Emotive but wrong.

Of course the general UK public weren't able to articulate every nook and cranny about what it means on a practical level to leave the EU, but they did know there would be consequences, economic ones etc.

They on balance even not knowing the full implications voted to leave and accepted the implications even unknown for what they wanted.

How can anyone know the full implications. Even the politicians don't and argue these things to death every day.

I don't believe for a second that if there was a second ref that the result would be any different. I think you may get an even higher turnout but I think the result would be the same.

I am not arguing for Brexit. It is a mistake imo. What I have a problem with is the arguments ppl make about the ppl who voted to leave.

If the British ppl would prefer to make their own laws that aren't influenced by being part of the EU, I think that's a perfectly valid position to take. So I don't think those that voted to leave were completely unaware of the negative consequence of doing so, but thought on balance that it is what they would prefer and any problems they might experience as a result of leaving could be sorted out in time.

I have to disagree there, now that the brexit campaigners have put their hands in the air and admitted that they have broken financing rules, provided false assertions, promised buttercups and only provided bull **** and broken promises. It is very clear that not only are they not capable of delivering the fantasy brexit they promised, but also that nobody can as it cannot exist.

With this information well and truly in hand, there must be a mechanism to revisit the primary referendum question posed by Pig-F***** in the first place.

(Ignoring the political machinations that it only came about as a knee-jerk reaction to prevent the Torys having to power-share with the extreme right [which they effectively are now anyway] and the current situation where TM is hanging on to power by her fingernails as the whole sh1t-show goes hurtling down a cliff face on to the rocks of the 21st century below)

a 2nd referendum will cause temporary division of society. a hard brexit will put people out of poverty and into destitution. Ask anyone working on the front-lines as a social worker or first responder in already hard-up areas....

Larbre34

AllForIt wrote: »

If the British ppl would prefer to make their own laws that aren't influenced by being part of the EU, I think that's a perfectly valid position to take. So I don't think those that voted to leave were completely unaware of the negative consequence of doing so, but thought on balance that it is what they would prefer and any problems they might experience as a result of leaving could be sorted out in time.

They don't even know what are and aren't 'their own laws', i.e. what is under the competence of Westminster and what is under the competence of Brussels. Even if a harder brexit were to come about, it will shock many leavers the laws that do not change because they are necessary for a big economy of the modern world. I wonder has it occured to many either, that large scale immigration to Britain from southern Asia has never had anything to with the EU

That reality is the fault of decades of UK govts who failed to sell the EU benefits or at very least explain its function, ironic considering Britain was a lead architect of economic union in the 80s and 90s.

A row which typifies the whole thing was broadcast on Channel 4 news one evening last week:

Two guys protesting for either side on the street outside Westminster -

A. We want our democracy back, take back control from the EU commission!!

B. We elect our own Government, the Governments of the EU decide who the Commissioners from their country will be and send them to Brussels.

A. Rubbish!! You're project fear mate, go and move to Brussels then!!

Clearly it has gone beyond people caring whether they are right or wrong, investing the time to learn about the facts, they just see trigger symbols or hear trigger words and attack.

murphaph

Larbre34 wrote: »

They don't even know what are and aren't 'their own laws', i.e. what is under the competence of Westminster and what is under the competence of Brussels. Even if a harder brexit were to come about, it will shock many leavers the laws that do not change because they are necessary for a big economy of the modern world. I wonder has it occured to many either, that large scale immigration to Britain from southern Asia has never had anything to with the EU

That reality is the fault of decades of UK govts who failed to sell the EU benefits or at very least explain its function, ironic considering Britain was a lead architect of economic union in the 80s and 90s.

A row which typifies the whole thing was broadcast on Channel 4 news one evening last week:

Two guys protesting for either side on the street outside Westminster -

A. We want our democracy back, take back control from the EU commission!!

B. We elect our own Government, the Governments of the EU decide who the Commissioners from their country will be and send them to Brussels.

A. Rubbish!! You're project fear mate, go and move to Brussels then!!

Clearly it has gone beyond people caring whether they are right or wrong, investing the time to learn about the facts, they just see trigger symbols or hear trigger words and attack.

I wonder how many of the ringleaders on the Brexit at any cost side are on the Russian payroll, directly or indirectly.

FrancieBrady

Headshot wrote: »

What time are the indicative votes tomorrow?

8pm according to Morning Ireland RTE